The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).
The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.
32% Labor won’t give concessions then squeals about blockers and delayers. Delusional.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:56 pm
@BW – 85% of Canberra support Pocock’s stance of pushing for amendments on the climate legislation. 7% support Labor’s Bill ‘as is’.
There may be an issue that kills Pocock’s campaign in 5 ish years. But this ain’t it.’
========================================================
Pocock got $1.7 million to run his campaign. He got Seselja. He got Morrison. He got tactical Labor votes. He got a lot of Liberal voters who love a private school boy rugger bugger.
It is highly unlikely that all of those will apply at the next election – particularly if it is a DD forced by Pocock.
Hanks QC? Just some lawyer at a conference
Holmes asks if he was more qualified than dhs staff?
She scores another goal
After the Royal Commission hands down its report, then the dismissals will begin. There are processes to follow. They don’t call it a bureaucracy for nothing.
The Greens and Pocock should walk the talk. They KNOW that their climate policies and their housing policies are extremely popular.
They should just stop bullshitting and walk their talk: destroy Labor’s climate and housing policies.
Albanese would go to a DD.
Within four weeks we would have a completely different Senate and Labor with an expanded House majority.
@BW – you’re talking about a theoretical election fought on an issue that 7% of ACT voters support Labor’s position, and 85% support Pocock’s position.
I know that ‘single issue’ polls don’t map exactly to vote share, people care about more than 1 issue, even at a DD about that issue.
But I cannot think of a better start to a campaign for Pocock than Labor calling a DD on a 7% issue.
VE
The ACT is ‘kingmaker’
LOLZ
Pocock=Thorpe=Babet
Many now falling in behind Lidia Thorpe and Pat Dodson demanding action from Albo on recommendations from the RCADIC.
south @ #525 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 4:58 pm
Like I said, The Greens’ arrogance and inability to compromise with the government appears to be seeing their support erode, as evidenced starkly by Voice Endeavour’s contemptuous statement:
Australia has suffered for decades as a result of the large amount of marginal Qld seats, and the lack of ACT marginal seats.
In this current term, the ACT is kingmaker.
Deal with it.
In other words, to hell with the rest of Australia and Queensland can go to hell. No wonder the Adani Convoy was such a tone deaf cavalcade of smug indifference to the rest of Australia.
Greggory lets emotion get the better of him
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/moira-council-sacked-after-employee-murder-20230307-p5cq2w.html
I have seen many local government scandals but an entire Council sacked after being partly blamed for a council employee getting murdered is a new one (though despite the headline it looks to me like the Council’s dodgy disposal of asbestos and general ineffectiveness was at least as much to blame).
Boerwar,
If the greens sink this, then labor will ignore climate until after the voice is done. If action is that urgent. And I know it is, I work with climate scientists. Then the greens shouldn’t be acting so cavalier with their opportunties.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:02 pm
@BW – you’re talking about a theoretical election fought on an issue that 7% of ACT voters support Labor’s position, and 85% support Pocock’s position.
I know that ‘single issue’ polls don’t map exactly to vote share, people care about more than 1 issue, even at a DD about that issue.
But I cannot think of a better start to a campaign for Pocock than Labor calling a DD on a 7% issue.’
========================================================
Well, we just don’t know, do we?
Labor will go to a double DD on housing and climate.
It will sell its policies as reasonable. It will get a gain of 3-5% on its primary vote over the last election.
Pocock might well get rolled and the Liberals might well reclaim the second ACT seat.
I see that Integrity is running the RCIADIC one liner bait.
He tried this several times the other day without getting a bit.
Repeat cast today.
Will he get some suckers?
Arky. You are right on the money. Secretaries and those at that level are paid significant premium for that uncertainty. Look at the situation with Amy Brown in NSW during the Trade Commissioner stuff. Paid out her termination clause and it was done in a matter of weeks.
Ms Campbell must really be delivering in AUKUS.
Voice Endeavour, do you have a link to the Guardian article on the ACT polling? I can’t find anything on the Guardian website. Thanks.
south @ #912 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 5:05 pm
The CPRS all over again. But this time people know where that behaviour led the country. Up a dry gully, caused by Climate Change. And they don’t want it to happen again. Most especially Greens’ voters, I would have thought.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:08 pm
I see that Integrity is running the RCIADIC one liner bait.
He tried this several times the other day without getting a bit.
Repeat cast today.
Will he get some suckers?
—-
Mate. The irony of your post. Surely not lost on you. It seems he got you given you felt the need to respond.
south @ #915 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 5:05 pm
There’s nothing ‘cavalier’ about a policy of no new thermal coal or gas.
There is only corruption of Labor by the fossil fuel industry to maintain their profits at the expense of the environment and habitat.
VE
We have approached a historic moment.
Bandt has repeated declared that the Labor package is not good enough. He has repeatedly declared that it will increase emissions. He has repeatedly declared that the Greens will not pass the package unless Labor includes stopping new coal and gas.
Bandt has nowhere to go other than to block the Labor package with the reliable support of Dutton.
If Dutton and Bandt join each other in blocking the package there will be a DD. The Teals, the Greens and the Coalition would most likely lose seats in such a DD.
Bring it on!
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:36 pm
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#Morgan federal ALP 38 L-NP 33.5 Green 11.5 others 17.0 Morgan has a 2PP of 54.5 (-2) but my last-election estimate for these primaries is 55.8 (+0.3)
· Mar 7, 2023
____________
…and, just when I post a view that tehere’s been a slight movement away from the govt, Morgan delivers the opposite.
All tiny, within-margin-of-error movements, thus fully justifying “Labor in Fee Fall” headlines.
And leadership speculation.
It is time for the Greens to put up or shut up.
Are they politicians or are they principled individuals who will fall on their swords rather than letting the planet cook because of Labor’s vile climate action policies.
Put up.
or
Shut up.
@Citizen – I saw it on the live blog. 16:31
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/mar/07/australia-politics-live-albanese-labor-essential-poll-rba-cash-rate-superannuation-super-greens-safeguard-mechanism-carbon-climate-change#top-of-blog
Citizen, From the Guardian blog:
“The Australia Institute has polled Canberrans about their thoughts on carbon credit offsets, as independent senator David Pocock continues his negotiations with the government on the safeguard mechanism.
What did they find? The good burghers of Canberra (I will use Ken Behrens when hell freezes over) want more action:
82% of Canberrans believe polluting projects should not be able to offset 100% of their emissions via carbon offsets, only 9% believe in 100% carbon offsets for projects
56% believe polluting projects should have to directly reduce their emissions, not use carbon offsets
26% believe projects should be able to offset some but not all emissions
85% believe the Senate should improve legislation; 7% believe Senate should pass legislation “as is”
61% believe it would be better for the Senate to improve climate legislation even if takes longer, while 30% believe climate law should be passed as is so it comes into operation sooner
63% agree that the Commonwealth Government should stop new gas & coal projects, 28% believe new projects should be allowed to go ahead, 8% are unsure
40% believe the Government should stop new gas & coal projects and start to phase down production from existing projects
23% believe the Government should stop new projects, but allow existing projects to continue operating as is
8.4% Unsure / don’t know”
Voice Endeavour says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:41 pm
Guardian reporting ACT specific issues polling, that shows how out of his depth Albo is.
Labor need to negotiate to get their legislation through the senate. There’s no chance the potato will talk, so it’s down to Labor needing the Greens, Thorpe (who has indicated she intends to vote with the Greens on climate) and one other, most likely Pocock.
Canberrans overwhelmingly oppose Labor’s policies. By about a 12:1 ratio for overall, 9:1 on offsets, and a bit over 2:1 on coal and gas bans.
Also some lessons in here for the Greens, who are doubtless hoping to pick up Pocock’s seat when he’s done with it. On coal and as bans, the Greens need to move further if they want to keep up with the ACT community. While 23% agree with the Green position, 40% want the Greens to go further, while only 28% want the Greens to go less far.
82% of Canberrans believe polluting projects should not be able to offset 100% of their emissions via carbon offsets, only 9% believe in 100% carbon offsets for projects
56% believe polluting projects should have to directly reduce their emissions, not use carbon offsets
26% believe projects should be able to offset some but not all emissions
85% believe the Senate should improve legislation; 7% believe Senate should pass legislation “as is”
61% believe it would be better for the Senate to improve climate legislation even if takes longer, while 30% believe climate law should be passed as is so it comes into operation sooner
63% agree that the Commonwealth Government should stop new gas & coal projects, 28% believe new projects should be allowed to go ahead, 8% are unsure
40% believe the Government should stop new gas & coal projects and start to phase down production from existing projects
23% believe the Government should stop new projects, but allow existing projects to continue operating as is
8.4% Unsure / don’t know
Albo needs to respect the mandate given to the Greens and Pocock and get out of the way.
____________
LOL 1.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-18/abbott-sacks-three-public-service-bosses-as-first-act/4965690
New PM Tony Abbott sacks three public service bosses as first act.
The process is – the Government says “I don’t like this Department Secretary, sack them”, much like the coach of a professional sports team, and they get whatever payout their contract says they get, and they go.
The high income threshold for unfair dismissal in Australia is currently $162,000. They earn a lot more than that, buckeroos.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:42 pm
Ms Campbell should be managed out with an a negotiated contract settlement.
____________
LOL 2.
I’ll stop laughing when you dip into your super to cover Ms Campbell’s payout.
The Greens would love a DD. They have the luxury of focussing their resources on their target seats, while our aging volunteers are stretched over all 151 electorates. In the Senate, they would benefit from the smaller quotas, while the mathematics of proportional representation makes it difficult for Labor to win a Senate majority even in a landslide.
The Teals and Pocock would probably be less keen to go back to the polls this early, but with them all well into their honeymoons and with Climate 200 money behind them, would have little to fear. I would be shocked if any lost their seats in that situation.
Then there’s the simple fact that most people don’t like election campaigns, and they generally hate early elections.
It would be a disaster, IMO, and most likely result in the Greens winning more seats off of Labor and a less manageable Senate.
VE
“ Albo needs to respect the mandate given to the Greens and Pocock and get out of the way.”
Let me get this straight, Labor wins 77 seats, The Greens and Pocock win 5 seats between them but it’s Labor that needs to get out of the way, is that the logic you’re offering?
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Integrity back with the Fossil Cartel and S3 one liner baits.
Thorpe must be having an off day.
____________
Rex IS Thorpe.
Hi all .
I have a question for any legal eagles out there.
Can the Victorian planning minister rescind an interim heritage order once she has made it when provided with new information about the house in question.
Thanks if anyone responds
BW:
While you have your crystal ball out, could we get next week’s lottery numbers too?
It’s interesting that despite polling Canberrans (the most progressive city in Australia obvs) and lining up the desired answers with wave after wave of tilted questions on this one topic (one of the giveaways is the thing about should the Senate “improve” legislation or pass it as-is, making the assumption that the Senate will improve it! Of course people will vote for improvement!)….
they didn’t dare ask the actual question of whether Canberrans want the crossbench to block the ALP’s legislation if the ALP won’t stop new oil and gas projects, which (even allowing for the tilt due to all the setup questions) would be actual data.
Pretty unethical use of polling for mine.
This sadly seems to be par for the course for the Australia Institute, it’s very IPA of them, and part of why I don’t trust issues polling very much no matter what side of politics is doing it. 99% of issues polling is done with an agenda.
Shadow finance minister Jane Hume accuses Labor of relying on retirees (people with more than $3 million in super) to fix the budget mess left by the former Coalition government.
Unlike the Coalition which sought to balance the budget by raising ROBODEBTs against vulnerable people unable to use accountants or engage lawyers
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:03 pm
south @ #525 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 4:58 pm
Rex Douglas,
It’s not the greens that gave those preferences. Its the voters. You should learn the difference. because the Greens party seems to take their voters for mugs. Everyone who voted second preference labor, said with their vote that something is better than nothing. Yet the Greens party take the party line. My way or the highway.
Who owes who….really!
Like I said, The Greens’ arrogance and inability to compromise with the government appears to be seeing their support erode, as evidenced starkly by Voice Endeavour’s contemptuous statement:
Australia has suffered for decades as a result of the large amount of marginal Qld seats, and the lack of ACT marginal seats.
In this current term, the ACT is kingmaker.
Deal with it.
In other words, to hell with the rest of Australia and Queensland can go to hell. No wonder the Adani Convoy was such a tone deaf cavalcade of smug indifference to the rest of Australia.
____________
Ms Snappy and I have just moved to Qld. Certain “hell-ish” characteristics…
FWIW, I think the climate bill will go the same way as pretty much every other piece of legislation the Albanese government has put to parliament so far. There will be a lot of argy-bargy and attempted bluffs from all sides until it’s finally passed with some minor-to-moderate amendments.
Life is shit when you can’t trust your 30,000 employees not to get it wRONg.
RC
This is such a train wreck.
Campbell must have known this was coming.
She must have a plan B career wise.
Her evidence does not paint her in a good light.
Isn’t she currently working with something in defence dept?
‘Asha says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:24 pm
BW:
Labor will go to a double DD on housing and climate.
It will sell its policies as reasonable. It will get a gain of 3-5% on its primary vote over the last election.
While you have your crystal ball out, could we get next week’s lottery numbers too?’
—————————————
1. Australians have consistently underestimated Albanese.
2. Albanese was there when the consequences of Rudd squibbing a DD hit the Labor Government.
3. Albanese has shown a consistent regard for implementing Labor’s promises – not everyone else’s promises.
Why let a tiny minority determine the future of Australia?
If you can get set on a DD, go for it.
Shogun says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:22 pm
Rex Douglas
They’re into her everyday for bias against Labor.
This asinine and entirely unsupported comment qualifies as ‘rexcrement’ (or ‘rexcreta’).
The Lisa Millar thing had fuck-all to do with “Labor partisans” – your perennial bogeymen.
____________
…or -women…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFBOQzSk14c
“Voice Endeavour says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:12 pm
@Citizen – I saw it on the live blog. 16:31
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/mar/07/australia-politics-live-albanese-labor-essential-poll-rba-cash-rate-superannuation-super-greens-safeguard-mechanism-carbon-climate-change#top-of-blog”
Thank you. It’s not up on the Australia institute website yet but hopefully they will give polling details – sample size, questions asked etc. I wonder if they also asked voting intention. Polling in the ACT is only slightly less scarce than hens’ teeth.
Jak Waterford declares that it’s the bureaucracy that enabled the Robodebt shame.
https://johnmenadue.com/its-the-bureaucracy-that-enabled-the-robo-debt-shame/
The “dole bludger” trope enabled Robodebt
Cronus says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:22 pm
VE
“ Albo needs to respect the mandate given to the Greens and Pocock and get out of the way.”
Let me get this straight, Labor wins 77 seats, The Greens and Pocock win 5 seats between them but it’s Labor that needs to get out of the way, is that the logic you’re offering?
____________
Yup. The sum total. The kit and kaboodle. The whole smash. All she wrote…
Marvelous universe to inhabit.
Re ChatGPT:
There are tools being developed to detect student papers written entirely or with substantial portions generated by AIs such as ChatGPT. Primarily to identify possible plagiarism in student papers.
Academic journals and publishers also use such tools, to detect possible plagiarism.
It won’t be long before newspapers also start using these tools, to detect possible plagiarism or just letters and comments submitted by political staffers or other commercial interests falsely pretending to represent public opinion (after all, that’s their job!).
It also won’t be long before companies also start using these tools to detect plagiarism in commissioned reports, internally generated documents, or dodgy resumes and references.
It also won’t be long before patent offices also start using these tools to detect AI generated submissions, to detect insufficiently researched or insufficiently “novel” patent requests.
It also won’t be long before government departments start using these tools, to detect both fraud and insufficiently researched grant and funding requests.
Anyone who plans to use AI to generate documents for such purposes had better get a move on, because soon any such document will soon be detectable and at the very least downgraded, if not outright binned. Once people can generate large and impressive looking documents with minimal cost or effort, anything that triggers the “AI generated” detector will very likely end up with the document being handled with minimal further human intervention because it would be too costly to have humans wade through them – only another AI could do so economically.
Billie
I have no doubt there was a wish in DHS to be in lockstep with their minister .
The government wanted savings and offering them a scheme that involves a billion or two can’t help your career prospects.
DSS less so but I think once Morrison was on board and prepared to take it to cabinet they had less say.
It then took a life of its own. Once the requirement for legislation had disappeared it was a runaway train.
well they still keeping pezzulo and shearer after all there scandles understand shearer its stachatory the terector of national inteligents but no idea whiy pezzulo is still there after he mislead his minister Clair oniel five times abbout the narew contract ending and suddinly dutton tried to make it an ishue
Oh goodness gracious me, another self-serving ‘poll’ by The Australia Institute. Hmm, now let me get this right … Sarah Hanson-Young, veteran Greens Senator, is married to Ben Oquist. Ben Oquist is … the former executive Director, until 2022, of The Australia Institute. Nothing fishy going on there.
I think this is the bloodiest day of the war on the Russian side since last March:
Russians KIA Mar 6: 1,060
Total Russians KIA: 154,830
Daily average Russians KIA: 411.8
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/7/7392279/
At a ratio of between 5:1 and 7:1 (Russian:Ukrainian KIA) Ukraine would have lost 150-200 KIA on Mar 6.
hopefuly nsw labor wont make same mkistake and will finaly get rid of coolts trotter but that will be difficult given hos maried to pliberseck eazily the most overated labor mp shes okay but doesnt realy stand for any thing plus campbell leading defence after all stuff ups plus catherin campbell and the liberal stacked aspi
Rossmcg says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:44 pm
Billie
I have no doubt there was a wish in DHS to be in lockstep with their minister .
The government wanted savings and offering them a scheme that involves a billion or two can’t help your career prospects.
DSS less so but I think once Morrison was on board and prepared to take it to cabinet they had less say.
It then took a life of its own. Once the requirement for legislation had disappeared it was a runaway train.
____________
IIRC it was to recoup 1.5bn over the forward estimates. A drop in the bucket given the “debt and deficit” they’d been screaming about.
Robodebt was a propaganda war against people living in poverty.
Absolute bloody disgrace.