As I ought to have reported yesterday, the Age/Herald has the first federal poll of the year from Resolve Strategic, which credits Labor with a primary vote lead of 42% (unchanged on last month) to 29% (down one), with the Greens on 11% (steady), One Nation on 6% (up two), the United Australia Party on 2% (steady) and independents on 8% (steady). Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but applying preference flows from last year’s election suggests a crushing Labor lead of around 60-40. Limited state breakdowns suggest Labor leads of around 60-40 in Victoria and 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales and Queensland. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is at 60% compared with 25% for poor and very poor, while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% and 46%, with Albanese leading 55-20 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
The poll also has a suite of questions relevant to Australia Day, which find 47% support for the federal government’s policy of allowing councils to choose days other than Australia Day for citizenship ceremonies with 19% opposed; 40% in favour of a republic (up five since September) with 30% opposed (down seven); and a 31% positive rating for King Charles III’s performance, with 12% negative and 57% neutral or unsure.
Also from Resolve Strategic is a set of results in the Indigenous voice that combines its December and January poll for an overall sample of 3618. Following on from similar findings in YouGov’s New South Wales poll last week, the poll finds support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen from 53% to 47% since August and September, with opposition up a point to 30% and undecided up four to 23%. Support is at 72% among Greens voters, 61% among Labor voters and 27% among Coalition voters. When the uncommitted were forced to choose, the result came in at 60% for yes and 40% for no, in from 64% to 36% in August and September. Only 13% felt confident they could explain the proposal, with 63% saying they would struggle to and 23% saying they had never heard of it. The narrowest results at state level were 56% yes and 44% no in both Queensland and South Australia.
The first fortnightly Essential Research poll of the year includes federal voting intention figures if you know where to look, which alongside a 5% uncommitted component have primary votes of Labor 34% (down one on early December), Coalition 31% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 16% (down one), with the pollster’s “2PP+” scores at 53% for Labor (up two), 42% for the Coalition (down two) and 5% uncommitted (steady). It nonetheless records a significant fall in Anthony Albanese’s still strong personal ratings, which are at 55% approval (down five) and 31% disapproval (up four).
Further questions found 33% support for both a separate day to recognise Indigenous Australians (down four on last year) with another 33% opposed (up four) and 26% believing such a day should replace Australia Day (up six). Eighty-two per cent rated Australia a better place to live than most other countries and 77% expressing pride in Australia, although 47% also agreed Australia needed to be a better global citizen with 16% disagreeing. Forty-two per cent agreed things were better for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia than ten years ago, compared with 38% for about the same and 10% for worse. The polling was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1050.
Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll of 1231 respondents conducted Friday to Monday, which finds 64% favour the name of Australia Day being retained against 36% who would prefer that it be called “Invasion Day”, and the two-party preferred federal voting intention result in its weekly video has Labor leading 59-41, in from 59.5-40.5 last week. The BludgerTrack trend results on the sidebar and full display include the Resolve Strategic and Essential Research results, but don’t make use of Roy Morgan.
IMO, Thorpe has made several public statements that are not mutually consistent.
Further, Thorpe’s opinions show some considerable confusion about the various natures of negotiation ambit claims, public advocacy, protest behavioural statements, personal views, the views of the BlakGreens, the views of Indigenous people more generally, and official party policy statements.
It is not at all clear when she holds them, when she folds them, and when she picks them up again.
That said, Thorpe probably represents at least some views and/or a general posture on issues, held by significant numbers of Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) people.
Alpo @ Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:04 am
Touché 🙂
Re: Convicts Day
Thats not a bad idea…..We could have an Indigenous Day, Convict Day, ANZAC Day AND a Multicultural day….that would cover everyone who has lived and arrived here, and served in war.
And of course get rid of Australia/Queens Birthday/ Bank and other archaic holidays. Changing the names in a bigger revamp of all holidays might help ease the process.
The entire point of the Uluru Statement was that it was a conference of FN people and their recommendations on the way forward for their people, and how it could be integrated into greater Australia. It is precisely for this reason, in order to stop the personality cult posturings of which FN person is a better representative than some other FN person.
If you are against the voice, you’re against the FN people. It really is as simple as that.
I see Peter Jennings got a gong in the Australia Day honours. For what? Shilling anti china crap?
“Sceptic says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:03 am
Albanese said the Voice would never be “above the parliament” and would never be in a position to veto decisions of the parliament. He added that this “subservience” to the parliament was one of the criticisms of the proposal from Thorpe.
What does Thorpe expect..
“The parliament is supreme over an Indigenous voice,” Thorpe says. “And I think that’s the crux of it right there. We want a treaty so that we can have real power.”
Thorp is in the right party to ensure total failure of the proposal, nothing will eventuate because her perfect can not be achieved… Greens climate policy wrecking repeated.”
I think that it’s just a matter of time, a very short time, until the Greens tell Thorpe to support the Voice or piss off. The Greens were brave enough to tell Lee Rhiannon (the Watermelon Pasionaria) to piss off. Surely, they don’t want to be seen to have discriminated against Lee, going hard after her (whilst going soft with unhinged Lidia), because Lee was White, whereas Lidia is untouchable because she is Blak!!
@ C@tmomma928
Have to agree with you re Boerwars’ nakedly general comment that those who disagree with racist and misogynist. Does he believe, ipso facto, that women who disagree with Dutton, for example, are anti- male and anti MAWM?
Of course not. But his comment is , in my view, absolutely denigrating to anyone and everyone who holds a different view to hers.
He will of course reply that he was speaking of some people, not a generalisation. He may defend that comment….”it means what I mean it to say”…. but he did not clarify that, so people will take any view they choose.
Indeed, there are racist and misogynistic people out there. But to baldly state that anyone who chooses to disagree with her are such-and-such people, is denigratory.
No, she is none of those fine Indigenous people you name, but she is her own person, holding strong views as they do and should be treated with respect and tolerance.
Maybe Boerwar, with his strong views, also needs to treat those who disagree with them with a measure of respect and tolerance. Australia Day elicits many responses, but whether you like it or not, surely an overwhelming view would be that it is first and foremost about respect and tolerance.
A stray comment on ATSIC..
ATSIC was, for many Indigenous people, the first family or individual go at middle and senior management. There were very, very few Indigenous people with tertiary qualifications. There was little or no Indigenous middle class. Almost no Indigenous person had had parents with tertiary qualifications, a career in the professions, or extensive management experience. A lot of what was happening was learning on the job.
There are now tens of thousands of Indigenous people with tertiary qualifications. There are tens of thousands of Indigenous people who have had, or are having, extensive experience as middle and senior managers and as professionals. Many of the up-and- coming* Indigenous people grew up in households with parents in management and/or with tertiary qualifications.
Do you want to get rid of Labor Day, Torchbearer – after all 8 hours was achieved many decades ago.
Gettysburg1863,
Absolutely agree. I treat her views with respect and tolerance. I just don’t agree with them. That doesn’t, ipso facto, make me a misogynist or a racist.
Australia’s national day “celebrates” the day white people turned up to live.
NZ’s (Feb 6) celebrates the day 173 years ago that Whites and Blacks signed a treaty and they have been celebrating that day for almost 50 years. So we’re almost 2 centuries behind the kiwis on a treaty and half a century behind on changing the date…
‘Gettysburg1863 says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:13 am
@ C@tmomma928
Have to agree with you re Boerwars’ nakedly general comment that those who disagree with racist and misogynist. Does he believe, ipso facto, that women who disagree with Dutton, for example, are anti- male and anti MAWM?
….’
———————–
Cat verbaled me.
My comments were: that there is much racism in Australia and that Thorpe, as an Indigenous female leader, is attracting much racist and misogynistic hate.
My comment was NOT that all commentators who disagree with Thorpe are racists or misogynists.
Another comment on ATSIC; The government of the day had the ability to remove it, which they ultimately did. With the stroke of a pen. By the people who rail endlessly about cancel culture. Which shows the value to which it was attributed.
Q: Do you want to get rid of Labor Day, Torchbearer – after all 8 hours was achieved many decades ago.
Thats a tricky one…..It is not national, and there is a difference between archaic and old. Public holidays have been chopped and changed constantly over time (Australia Day only recently became a national holiday. Kings Birthday is not celebrated in the UK and is not on the Kings Birthday.). No reason they cant all be updated.
OC , I think we should celebrate fundamental injustice day.
If you recall Kevin Rudd declared it for the introduction of the GST. But it could be an annual moveable date, maybe the Albo government could declare the first one for the anniversary of the fall of the Gillard Government?
The FN people see how the greens are sinking the voice referendum, even if their stooges don’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/jan/26/australia-news-live-invasion-day-protests-under-way-pro-russian-tennis-fans-quizzed-by-police?page=with:block-63d197308f08f60f4de85568#block-63d197308f08f60f4de85568
The Senior Australian of the Year, co-chair of the Indigenous voice co-design group, Tom Calma, has accused the federal Greens of “dilly-dallying” on their position on the voice.
Asked about Greens senator Lidia Thorpe’s position that she’ll only vote for the voice if she’s satisfied First Nations’ sovereignty isn’t ceded, Calma said:
[I’m] disappointed. For a couple of reasons: if we look at the United Nations declaration of Indigenous peoples … nothing in the declaration undermines the authority of the state, the country’s government. In Australia we did not cede ownership of Australia. Regrettably, it was determined by the British on the day, that terra nullius existed in Australia, which was overturned in 1992 through the Mabo high court decision … whilst we haven’t ceded … we haven’t progressed that matter.
For Calma, the questions are separate. He said:
It’s important that we as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have an opportunity to be able to contribute to policies that impact us, and programs and legislation – and that’s the first step. And we’ll go down and address the other matters, truth-telling is already progressing, treaty, although some states already looking at treaties within their own jurisdictions. So, I feel a bit offended when we’re starting to determine that the support or determination of whether to support a voice is predetermined by whether you address some of the other issues in Indigenous affairs. As I said in my speech last night, they can co-exist, these approaches. If you support the principle of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people having input into policy and legislation, that’s what you should support – it shouldn’t be predicated on whether other things are happening.
Boerwar @ #NaN Thursday, January 26th, 2023 – 9:44 am
And that is missing the point I was trying to make entirely. It was that, following historical precedent, a White Woman of the Establishment Elite, which is a fact, was today in her column, without consultation with any FN people (save Warren Mundine, I imagine), issuing a diktat to First Nations’ people that their aspiration, via the Voice to Parliament, was a load of hooey as far as she was concerned.
Labour Day should be May 1 in every state. Scattering it around the calendar was a deliberate effort to undermine the labour movement.
Having a variable Annual Day of Fundamental Injustice could also allow for situations where a fundamental injustice had subsequently been accepted as just so we just need to find a new fundamental injustice to mark and recognise on a different date – by way of Government Gazettal.
Thanks so much BK
I thought the Robodebt Commission was much more pointed yesterday. The cracks are really starting to open up now.
And that’s it, Pi! I was trying to put my finger on it and you’ve been able to crytallise it for me. The truth of the matter is, as we say every time we meet on Indigenous Land, that we respect all Indigenous leaders, past, present and emerging. Well, Lidia Thorpe doesn’t respect her own people’s creed. She just doesn’t respect present day leaders, like Tom Calma.
Q: I thought the Robodebt Commission was much more pointed yesterday.
Shame the MSM, that have an attention span of a goldfish and no staff, have grown bored of it….
Boerwar @ #NaN Thursday, January 26th, 2023 – 10:16 am
Well then, you weren’t at all clear about it. And if you took offense, I apologise.
Wouldn’t an MP (government or otherwise) holding a portfolio office voting against their party’s position normally be expected to resign from holding that portfolio position? And if so, is a special dispensation going to be given in this single case involving Thorpe?
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:16 am
Australia’s national day “celebrates” the day white people turned up to live.
NZ’s (Feb 6) celebrates the day 173 years ago that Whites and Blacks signed a treaty and they have been celebrating that day for almost 50 years. So we’re almost 2 centuries behind the kiwis on a treaty and half a century behind on changing the date…
—————————————–
The situation among the 25 million non-Indigenous Australians is extremely complex and cannot simply be covered by ‘whites’ who turned up to live in 1788.
There are over two million Chinese-Australians and Indian-Australians. I have no idea how these Australians would describe themselves in terms of skin colour.
There are 600,000 muslims in Australia, most of whom came from the Middle East, who can safely be said to have a significant orientation to middle eastern places of profound religious significance. Of the latter – there are none in Australia. I would not dare go to their ‘whiteness’.
There are a third of a million of Australians who are Vietnamese Australian. As above.
Around two percent of Australians are African-Australians. As above.
Around half of all Australians have one or both parents born overseas.
One in three Australians were born overseas.
There IS no ‘Whites’.
There IS no Whites who arrive in 1788.
The vast majority of non-Indigenous Australians either have parents who arrived subsequent to the Invasion or were born after the invasion.
I suggest that many, perhaps the vast majority, of the above have little or no knowledge of, or interest in, a fight between the english and Indigenous people in Australia that, in military terms, was all over bar the shouting 90 years ago. I imagine that for many of them it would be like revisiting the outcomes of WW1 and WW2 and calling for new sovereignty arrangements for dozens of countries because WW1 and WW2 were unfair and unjust.
Alpha Zero
The celebration of Waitangi Day is contested – before Arden there were numerous disruptions to the ceremonies on the treaty grounds and it can’t be considered a day of national adulation.
There are treaties and then there are treaties and then there are treaty implementations
‘Cronus says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:30 am
Wouldn’t an MP (government or otherwise) holding a portfolio office voting against their party’s position normally be expected to resign from holding that portfolio position? And if so, is a special dispensation going to be given in this single case involving Thorpe?’
————————————-
Cabinet ministers are generally expected to resign. Backbench MPs are allowed to hold different opinions. The rules in Opposition depend on the party’s rules. It seems clear that Thorpe will be acting consistent with her role and consistent with her party’s rules.
Standing for a party – especially in Lidia’s case, for a safe seat – gives one advantages one wouldn’t have standing as an individual.
Normally, the understanding is that comes with obligations.
If Lidia had stood as an independent, running as representing a certain subset of FN people, her position would be fine.
She didn’t, and that means there are certain realities she should respect.
Pi,
Simplistic twaddle.
Thorpe holds a valid position.
The problem is it is a minority view which she pushed onto the Greens, changing their policy from one that had majority support.
Recently we have seen Greens parliamentarians and State divisions start to push back against Thorpe’s position and express unconditional support for the Voice referendum.
I see no problem with Thorpe maintaining her position, but it seems to be at odds with what others in the Party think and Greens voters support, so she needs to stand back as Party spokesperson and just speak for herself on this issue.
From The Guardian:
“‘We push back against constitutional recognition’, speaker says at Sydney Invasion Day rally.
Framed by posters saying “vote no to referendum” and “we deserve more than a voice”, organisers have begun the Invasion Day rally in Sydney with a welcome to country.”
So, the Voice will happen, and we already know whom NOT to thank for it!
135 years on the losing side of history, and what have those people learned?
nath says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 8:22 am
I’ve been looking at the replies to Lidia Thorpe’s tweet and it is quite astounding the level of hate she attracts. Some really strong racist responses. Including the argument that Indigenous Australia was so warlike that it took the British invasion to establish a peaceful society. Are there some here doing extra work on her twitter feed?
——————————————————————————————-
You do realise that most posters here strongly support The Voice and therefore by definition cannot be considered racist? They can however identify an individual (regardless of colour) who for whatever reason is threatening to undermine The Voice. Therefore opposing the individual doesn’t make them racist. Opposing The Voice is what might make them racist.
Intentionally conflating outright racists with those who support The Voice but struggle with a particular individual undermining The Voice is very poor form nath but then you know that already.
Barney: “Thorpe holds a valid position. ”
Thorpe holds a position which is directly opposed to the FN conference that drafted the Uluru Statement. If you hold the same position, you’re just as opposed to the FN people who drafted that statement, and directly opposed to the wishes of the FN people.
You want to stand up to be counted with the racists and the bigots? Don’t complain when people point it out. Thorpe is no different than Price and Mundine.
From the Guardian live thread:
“Royal drama boosts support for republic, poll shows
Staying with opinion polls, the Nine papers’ Resolve Political Monitor shows Australians are more likely to support a republic following Prince Harry’s very public falling out with his family.
Support for an Australian republic has increased from 36 to 39% among eligible voters since the death of Queen Elizabeth, while the number of voters against the change fell from 37 to 31%.
It marks a shift from the support for the monarchy which rose in the weeks after the Queen’s death in September.”
The more time passes from the death of QEII the more gradually stronger the vote for the Republic will become…. Perhaps time will come for another (final) Republic referendum in 5 years time?
‘Barney in Belair says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:35 am
Pi,
Simplistic twaddle.
Thorpe holds a valid position.
The problem is it is a minority view which she pushed onto the Greens, changing their policy from one that had majority support.
Recently we have seen Greens parliamentarians and State divisions start to push back against Thorpe’s position and express unconditional support for the Voice referendum.
I see no problem with Thorpe maintaining her position, but it seems to be at odds with what others in the Party think and Greens voters support, so she needs to stand back as Party spokesperson and just speak for herself on this issue.’
———————————————
I am not aware that Thorpe has broken any of the Greens party rules.
However, the two Greens members who are undergoing a secret Greens trial in Melbourne might feel aggrieved that THEIR dissenting views are getting the full Star Chamber treatment whereas the views of Thorpe are getting a clear run.
Curious – people on here who are zealously anti-Green purport to say what Thorpe should or shouldn’t do.
Yet would never dream of passing similar judgement on say Julian Leeser.
I wonder why the double standard?
Alpo @ #71 Thursday, January 26th, 2023 – 9:27 am
Probably didn’t have fireworks on the Harbour Bridge.
Pi,
You seem to be suggesting that Thorpe has no right to her own view of the issue.
Cronus
You do realise that most posters here strongly support The Voice and therefore by definition cannot be considered racist?
Is the converse true? Are people who oppose the Voice racist by definition?
‘Alpo says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:37 am
From The Guardian:
“‘We push back against constitutional recognition’, speaker says at Sydney Invasion Day rally.
Framed by posters saying “vote no to referendum” and “we deserve more than a voice”, organisers have begun the Invasion Day rally in Sydney with a welcome to country.”
So, the Voice will happen, and we already know whom NOT to thank for it!
135 years on the losing side of history, and what have those people learned?’
———————————–
I would rate the chance of the Voice getting up at around 50/50.
Barney: “You seem to be suggesting that Thorpe has no right to her own view of the issue.”
I’m not struggling with anything. Thorpe is using her platform to undermine the FN people from all across Australia that drafted the Uluru Statement. Just like Price and Mundine. Fact.
OC: “racist ”
Racism requires a power differential, and has nothing to do with the colour of your skin. Just like any form of discrimination. You’ve done nothing more than perpetuate the trope of reverse discrimination, and it is the logic of a school-child.
OC
b. 1888 d. 1990
Good genes. Abstemious living?
“Boerwar says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:46 am
I would rate the chance of the Voice getting up at around 50/50.”
The opinion polls are more optimistic than that, and the official Government campaign of objective information hasn’t started yet. I remain positive, and I look forward to seeing the official position on the Voice of a major progressive publication such as The Guardian.
‘Oakeshott country says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:31 am
Alpha Zero
The celebration of Waitangi Day is contested – before Arden there were numerous disruptions to the ceremonies on the treaty grounds and it can’t be considered a day of national adulation.
There are treaties and then there are treaties and then there are treaty implementations’
=====================================================
Indeed. A-E made the accurate observation the other day that the history of treaties with first nations around the world were that they were broken on a routine basis.
Still, if you say it fast enough…
Australia was not just founded on the first day of the year – it was officially the first day of the century (although most would have celebrated the century the previous year)
The rhetoric was strong “A new nation, for a new century”
as well as:
“One nation, one people, one destiny” (fortunately not one leader)
“A continent for a nation and a nation for a continent”
and of course:
“Australia for the White Man”
‘Alpo says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:52 am
“Boerwar says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:46 am
I would rate the chance of the Voice getting up at around 50/50.”
The opinion polls are more optimistic than that, and the official Government campaign of objective information hasn’t started yet. I remain positive, and I look forward to seeing the official position on the Voice of a major progressive publication such as The Guardian.’
==========================================
I was not being psephological. The arse hattery has barely started.
Here’s a suggestion from Noel Pearson, described by Alan Kohler:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/01/26/australia-day-two-day-festival-kohler/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230126&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra
Facebook parent Meta is reinstating former president Donald Trump’s personal account after a two-year suspension following the January 6 insurrection.
The company said in a blog post on Wednesday that it was adding “new guardrails” to ensure there were no “repeat offenders” who violated its rules.
‘Steve777 says:
Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:53 am
Here’s a suggestion from Noel Pearson, described by Alan Kohler:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/01/26/australia-day-two-day-festival-kohler/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230126&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra‘
————————
That IS clever. Two days off!
BW: “The arse hattery has barely started.”
The dregs against the FN people who drafted the Uluru Statement are still trying to work out their talking points as to how they can justify being overtly racist without people overtly calling them racist.
Why not put a fixed long weekend at the end of January ie Monday is a PH. Call it Australia Weekend and have the official celebrations on the Sunday. Not date related.
Tomorrow, school officially starts in NSW. What idiot in the bureacracy thought that was a good idea.
Anyway, having a weekend means the 26th is only an issue every 7(?) years.
When the 26th falls on the Monday make the Friday the day off.