Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.
C@t
Has producers “ordered to break long-term export agreements”
One might say.. crap. So they have only signed long term contracts.. sure
“They would get my pun.”
And a very good one too. It’s hard work sometimes.
One for the Musk fanboys..
THE ATLANTIC DAILY
The Childish Drama of Elon Musk
Yet again, an important part of the public square is controlled by a narcissistic toddler.
By Tom Nichols
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/12/the-childish-drama-of-elon-musk/672496/
Poliphili @ #152 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 2:09 pm
It is the self congratulations that make it all worthwhile.
Simon Henny Penny Katich at 2:08 pm
There may be some ‘lost in translation’ going on. The Russian PMC group ‘Wagner’ are often referred to as the ‘musicians’. They have competition though, Ukraine now has its own ‘musicians’ , the ‘Mozart’ group.
poroti @ #155 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 2:22 pm
Which side is Scarlet on? I am with them.
poroti @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 2:52 pm:
“‘Russia will reportedly deploy musicians to Ukraine’s frontlines in a bid to boost morale’ …
There may be some ‘lost in translation’ going on. The Russian PMC group ‘Wagner’ are often referred to as the ‘musicians’. They have competition though, Ukraine now has its own ‘musicians’ , the ‘Mozart’ group.”
===========================
😆 😆 😆
What would we pay to see a concert of their ‘distinctive’ brand of ‘morale boosting’ …
Lap it up, russki’s!
All I know is I made a terrible faux pas. I was letting them know that there were no deadly creatures in the water if they wanted to go for a swim (when and if it warms up around here), where the shops and restaurants were, that sort of thing, and so I told them where the local bottle shop was, ‘so they could have wine with their meals’. Well, I was soon put back in my box with, ‘We won’t need to know that, we don’t drink!’ Oopsie. 😳
C@t
French people who dont drink! Sacre bleu
Victoria says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 3:08 pm
C@t
French people who dont drink! Sacre bleu
________________________________
Could be worse. Could be Italians!
From before. People thinking that the Greens are on track to lose seats in 2025 are dreaming.
That’s not to say it’s impossible. But absolutely nothing we have points to it being likely.
Current polling is looking good for Labor. But, anyone actually expecting Labor to receive 57% in the 2025 election needs their head examined. Labor frequently poll around the 57% mark. They never actually get that in federal elections.
Sophomore surge is a real thing. The Greens will have a lot of name recognition in 2025, that they didn’t have in 2022. They’ve got legislative wins under their belt already in 2022, same as Labor do. We should expect that the Greens will outperform their national swing, in their newly picked up seats.
Yes, if Labor somehow manage to get 100% of liberal voters to preference labor > greens, then Labor might win some seats back. Anyone got a credible theory as to how Labor would achieve that? Plenty of people like the Liberals’ economic policies and the Green’s environmental policies. Voters that put Liberal 1, Green 2 on policy grounds exist, and will continue to exist. Liberals changing their HTVs can nudge the dial a bit, but not a huge amount. And realistically, the Liberals are likely to save their cash and focus on other seats anyway, and will probably continue their ‘put Labor last’ strategy going into 2025, when the Liberals have no credible path to government and will just be hoping for minority labor government and hope that Albo forgets how to negotiate with a cross bench.
As I mentioned, the Greens have never lost a single member seat that they won at a general election. The sample size for this is:
Greens hold 13 single member seats. 8 of these, they have now won at least twice (i.e. gained and then retained), while 5 of them – 3 federal, 1 Vic, 1 Qld – are sophomores.
The Greens have been presented with 14 opportunities to retain a seat won at general election, and retained in each case (1 Qld, 4 NSW, 5 Vic, 4 Federal).
In all cases I’m aware of, the progression has simply been gain in a close election, sophomore surge to retain with a comfortable margin, and then the major parties have given up, resulting in a safe margin on the 2nd retain/3rd win.
Anyone claiming that Greens are likely to fail to retain any of their three new seats really needs to front up and explain why they think this is.
Danslide 2018 didn’t do it. Danslide 2022 didn’t do it. What does Albo have that Dan didn’t?
Glib comments about “by 2025, people will have woken up to how shit the Greens are” is not an answer. The Labor supporters on Pollbludger will think the Greens are shit in 2025, but you already thought the Greens were shit in 2019 and 2022.
TPOF
lol! True that
I thought it might have been . . . .
Well, I was soon put back in my box with, ‘We won’t need to know that, we don’t drink!’ . . . . Australian stuff
Why anyone has anything to do with these people is beyond me.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/19/frank-houston-committed-child-sexual-abuse-at-a-time-when-he-felt-emotionally-low-court-hears
billie @ #164 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 3:24 pm
😀
I admit I went down that path with … ‘How unusual, France is the place where so much fantastic wine comes from!’ I had the spade out and I kept digging. 😆
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 3:21 pm
The credibility of the Greens is in tatters. The numerous points listed by Boerwar tend to resonate as people age and get a little less wet behind the ears – hence the Greens demographic remains generally youthful. As the older supporters drop away, they are been replaced by those with limited life experience, thus keeping the vote fairly constant. Of course there is a cohort who never mature.
What is the immediate danger to the Greens’ vote is their position on the Voice. This will alienate the youth vote significantly. The Greens are now at peak-Green IMO.
It’s also legally dicey, according to Catalina Goanta, associate professor in private law and technology at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. “Twitter can’t just go and apply new moderation terms from one day to another,” she says. “It needs to first inform consumers, as it holds itself responsible for in its own ToS. I’m a Twitter user and I got no notification yet. I wonder if they sent any. I think Elon Musk should read his own platform’s ToS.”
https://www.fastcompany.com/90826894/elon-musk-just-broke-twitter-by-banning-outside-links
Expect a backdown tomorrow.
Yesterday I wss sort of criticised for writing about Gabba pitch..
‘Potentially unsafe’ Gabba pitch under scrutiny – ‘Is that a good advertisement for Tests?’
”
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/aus-vs-sa-1st-test-potentially-unsafe-gabba-pitch-under-scrutiny-is-that-a-good-advertisement-for-tests-1350258
“
Poliphili: “The numerous points listed by Boerwar tend to resonate …”
The numerous points listed by Boerwar tend to reverberate … inside his echo chamber.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 3:00 pm
All I know is I made a terrible faux pas
______________
I have a great idea for a tv show. I can executive produce.
C@t Unleashed….
C@tmomma travels the world with a film crew as she encounters different cultures and traditions while committing outrageous faux pas and hilarious observations. Wait until you hear what she said to the Eskimos!!
Poliphili: “… the Greens demographic remains generally youthful. As the older supporters drop away, they are been [sic] replaced by those with limited life experience, thus keeping the vote fairly constant.”
Cool story, not supported by actual evidence:
Simon Jackman, Australian Election Study | University of Sydney:
“We consistently observe “life cycle” effects in political loyalties; for instance, becoming more conservative as one ages. But the AES data shows these effects to be mild.
“Large, enduring changes in levels of political support over the life course are unusual in Australian politics.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/05/millennials-and-gen-z-have-deserted-the-coalition-this-could-be-dire-for-the-opposition
Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 3:46 pm
Just a shorthand way of referring to the many points which explain why the Greens overall vote has never really shifted. Now they will lose a lot of their recruits given their arrogant attitude to the Voice.
Boerwar’s bizarre rants are unlikely to sway the voters of Qld, and really just reflect his preexisting hatred of the Greens.
Auspol has been “at peak Greens” for about as long as nuclear fusion has been “just a decade away from solving all of our energy problems”. It’s a meme by now, so you’ll forgive me for not freaking out to much by your declaration.
The Greens’ position on the voice is not much of a threat totheir vote share. Labor’s position makes me sick. A referendum under ‘white fella’ law, that grants Aboriginal people a voice that white fellas will ignore in deciding how we run the land we stole from them. You can see how hollow that is, and the Greens are right for something meaningful instead of Labor’s usual “slightly better than nothing” garbage.
If a Voice is enshrined under a referendum, it can be taken away by referendum. That’s simply not acceptable, and Labor’s haste to set up a Voice in a way that can be snatched away is terrible policy and terrible politics.
Enshrining the Voice via a Treaty means that it cannot be taken away by referendum.
Essentially, the framework needs to be that the Treaty is the head document for Australia. Under the terms of the Treaty, we enshrine all the important documents for running the country – the Constitution and rules for amending the Constitution via referendum, the Voice (only changeable by changing the Treaty), the Magna Carta, the Australia Act (changeable by Parliament) etc.
I, like many Greens supporters, thank the Greens for pushing Labor to do something that has meaning, instead of just something that looks good and achieves nothing. I understand the difficult position Greens politicians are in, being a minor party, when both major parties are so bad. There are tradeoffs to be made. Sometimes the Greens can improve Labor’s legislation, sometimes it’s not salvageable and they need to oppose it. Sometimes, they need to threaten to oppose it, in order to secure concessions to salvage it. It’s a tightrope act, and the Greens do it better than any other party I’ve seen. They don’t always get perfect results, but they are only human.
Always was, always will be, Aboriginal Land.
Voice Endeavour says:
If a Voice is enshrined under a referendum, it can be taken away by referendum. That’s simply not acceptable, and Labor’s haste to set up a Voice in a way that can be snatched away is terrible policy and terrible politics.
____________
It’s less secure than that. All the constitution will say is that there must be a body called the Voice. Anything else is up to Parliament to decide. A future coalition government would probably find it reasonably easy to alter, minimize, and marginalize it. A more explicit amendment detailing the structure and processes for the voice would have been far better. It seems that Labor think the more they strengthen the Voice the less likely the amendment is to get up.
In Voice Endeavour’s vision of Australia, is there a Tasmania?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_Greens
While we are at it, let’s get rid of the ACT!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_Greens
I suppose Lidia Thorpe’s loss of Northcote doesn’t count according to Voice Endeavour, as it was initially won in a by-election 😉
@griff – I counted the ACT (where I live) and Tasmania (which I often forget). ACT and Tas have multi-member elections in their lower houses. I quite clearly stated that I was talking about single member electorates. Tasmania has a single member elected upper house, but I do not believe the Greens have ever won a general election in it? (noting that Tassie does upper house general elections each year on a weird roster). The ACT does not have an upper house, and therefore the Greens have never won a single member seat here.
Yes, the Greens have had reductions in numbers in multi member houses previously, but that seems a poor reflection on whether they will retain their three new MPs in 2025.
OK, back to reality.
Labor must act. They can’t just look away.
S3 must be scrapped before the May budget so the four year forward estimates can include an immediate lift in welfare payments.
Gippsland’s coast in south Victoria will be home to the turbines with the heavy winds of the Bass Strait offering plenty of wild weather to power Australian homes. The area covers about 15,000sq kilometres offshore, and runs from Lakes Entrance in the east to south of Wilsons Promontory in the west.
It’s expected the projects could support more than 3000 jobs over the next 15 years in development and construction phases, and an extra 3000 ongoing operation jobs. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen made the announcement alongside his Victorian counterpart Lily D’Ambrosio and Industry Minister Ed Husic.
Bowen said Gippsland’s declaration was a crucial step towards affordable, reliable and secure energy and new economic opportunities for Australia. “Australia’s new offshore wind industry will start in Gippsland,” he said.
Environmental advocates Friends of the Earth said the development of Gippsland’s offshore wind sector would be a game changer for the state’s efforts to tackle climate change and create thousands of new job opportunities. “Offshore wind will pump a huge amount of new, renewable power into the grid … that’s good for power prices, it’s good for jobs, and it’s good for the environment,” campaigner Wendy Farmer said.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/12/19/australias-first-offshore-wind-farm-zone-declared/
The next federal election will have put to bed:
1. The Same Old Same Old lie.
2. Integrity.
3. Gender issues.
4. The Voice.
5. Climate policy.
6. Leadership and stability.
The issues which will resonate are hip pocket issues: real wages, the job market, interest rates, inflation rate, COL, rents and party leadership.
Labor are bagging 1-6 and will get an additional 3-4% on its primary vote for good governance. All the old fear (Coalition) and smear (Greens and Teals) same old, same old verballing will have been killed by reality.
A discredited Bandt will still be leading the Greens. His tawdry and tarnished efforts over the past six months will continue over the next two and a half years. (Eight days ago Bandt was screaming about fossil fuel subsidies. He ended up voting for what he was screaming about. Grubby stuff!)
Bandt is basically supporting Putin by refusing to support sending military equipment to Ukraine. Grubby stuff but ideologically pure…
Bandt is being an utter hypocrite. He ventilates about coal ad nauseam. But he will go nowhere near the Greens’ beloved air travel.
Dutton will probably still be there because he reflects the majority of his colleagues faithfully.
Littleproud looks solid in his job – partly because he has the same position on the Voice as does Bandt.
While the Greens frot themselves, Labor acts:
1. A woman (Susan Kenny) is appointed as acting president to clean out the AAT.
2. After eons of granting a large majority of grants to male researchers, the NHMRC is to award grants on a roughly fifty/fifty basis.
3. 14 women and 9 men in the Victorian Labor Government Cabinet.
4. Respect in the Workplace legislation.
5. Gender equity is a core objective of the new IR legislation.
6. Katy Gallagher: $5m over five years to boost the number of women in public office. The women in public office grant is designed to encourage – and prepare – more women to run for elections at all levels.
7. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps.
8. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left by a certain commercial interest.
9. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee.
10. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
11. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget.
12. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
13. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
14. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
15. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence Against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
16. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
17. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
18. Labor is fully committed to implementing all the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
19. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
20. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
21. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
22. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
23. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
24. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
25. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
26. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
27. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
28. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
29. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
30. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
31. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
32. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
Yes griff, where I said “at a general election” I was pretty clearly talking about general elections and not by-elections. By elections are generally pretty poor for the government, relative to general elections. As we saw in Northcote, the advantage of a by election meant that the Greens could win Northcote, before it was ‘ready’ to win it in a general election.
Voice Endeavour @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Apples can be compared to oranges, but not to pears? I am not sure the parameters you rule in and rule out with respect to past performance are a valid predictor, but we shall see in a few years 🙂
Hh
The other beauty of offshore wind is that you don’t have to worry about a lot Greens Nimbies fighting against wind farms.
nath @ #174 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 4:15 pm
A Voice to parliament is a good thing and is needed. I will vote YES at the referendum.
A national treaty with first nations is just as important and urgent.
The Govt need to get moving on treaty, NOW !
A change in Liberal preferences, Labor tactical voting, and Labor primary vote will probably knock over three or four Greens seats.
And that is before you get to the Greens grubby behaviour in relation to the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
Every Greens I talk to is going to vote for the Voice in the privacy of the ballot box, as if that gives the Greens Party a free kick on the Voice.
The Greens should stop bullshitting and start using their self-renowned advocacy skills to get the Voice up.
Voice Endeavour
Wow. That’s one of the most delusional posts I’ve ever read here, on almost anything.
It’s going to be hard enough to get The Voice over the line – what you propose is tearing up everything and starting again, which would be one hundred times harder (and certainly not Greens policy).
Enshrining something in the Constitution is about as safe as something gets.
If you’re going to go into the absurdity of something passed by Referendum can be taken away by another referendum (not something which has happened ever) then ANY change ANY government makes can equally be overturned – as the past history of Treaties negotiated with indigenous people throughout the world eloquently demonstrates.
Fortunately what you propose isn’t Greens policy, and is certainly not supported by even a discernible minority.
It’s certainly not a sensible or practical way forward.
We get back to – the Voice is not something proposed by white people. It has been requested by First Nations people, who subverted a process designed by white people and used it for their own purposes. If they had been mere puppets of the white government, we’d be looking at a preamble to the Constitution.
From brown coal to natural wind power. Up the big V ! 🙂
@Griff – how many examples will be needed to convince you?
As I said, we’re on 14/14 currently.
The Greens have 3 more seats to defend in March, but, lets be honest this is hardly a fair fight considering the competition and chances are good we’ll be at 17/17.
In 2024, they’ll have 2 more seats to defend in Qld. Polling this far out is unreliable, but Labor will have “It’s time” working against them there after 12 years in power. Hardly seems like great conditions to pick up Greens seats, especially when the margin is a respectable 5.3%.
What sample size is enough? 19/19? Or do we need to wait for 2025 and see if they can get 23/23?
I’m finding the Haz & Meg show fascinating.
I’m in no doubt the firm have torn down Haz & Meg in order to protect the status of heirs Will and Kate.
Family torn apart by the faceless men. Ghastly stuff. I sympathise with the family, despite their material entitlements.
@zoomster – point is, there’s absolutely no evidence that Greens voters are waiting out there with baseball bats, wanting to punish the Greens for taking bold and ambitious policy positions and pushing the Labor government hard to go further. That is the entire reason we like the Greens.
You like political parties that do what’s easy. So you look at the Greens and think they’re doing a bad job, because they’re pouring their heart and soul into improving the country instead of doing what will make Rupert Murdoch give them a pat on the head.
Pushing Labor to do something real on the Voice, even if it’s hard, is not going to be what causes the Greens to lose their new Qld seats.
Another 150 years of the Greens never losing a seat and they will be the government of Australia. One term of implementing their cray cray policies and they should lose the vast majority of their seats when Australians come to their senses.
But is it going to be worth the price of admission?
We like the Greens because we have been indoctrinated with Same Old Same Old bullshit. There’s a sucker born every day.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 4:11 pm
The Greens’ position on the voice is not much of a threat to their vote share. Labor’s position makes me sick. A referendum under ‘white fella’ law, that grants Aboriginal people a voice that white fellas will ignore in deciding how we run the land we stole from them. You can see how hollow that is, and the Greens are right for something meaningful instead of Labor’s usual “slightly better than nothing” garbage.
If a Voice is enshrined under a referendum, it can be taken away by referendum. That’s simply not acceptable, and Labor’s haste to set up a Voice in a way that can be snatched away is terrible policy and terrible politics.
______________________________________________________
You, Voice Endeavour, may think an indigenous voice to parliament is “terrible policy and terrible politics”, but it is the consensus position of indigenous representatives from around Australia, decided at the Uluru Statement from the Heart in 2017.
Instead of being more of a paternalistic, I-know-best white fella than you probably realise, why don’t you actually listen to indigenous Australians?
No one is pretending that the voice will solve all problems. It is not designed to. It will give indigenous Australians some opportunity to be heard when the Australian parliament is deciding matters which affect them. That would be quite a start.
I also think Australian history shows that once a change is enshrined by referendum, it will not be undone. After all, in 1967 the majority of Australians voted to include Aborigines in the census, and so far, they have not voted to remove them.
Maybe voice endeavour should rename herself ‘Lack of Voice Endeavour’?
VE
Um, where have I said anything about Queensland? Or the Greens losing seats, for that matter?
Voice Endeavour @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 4:47 pm
Again, they are your choice of parameters. Personally I think State doesn’t translate that well to Federal, but who knows. Maybe you have cracked the code and the additions of only General election wins and only single member seats works. We shall see if they are predictive 🙂
Well we can guess the Greens’ Greens position on the Voice.
The Greens will negotiate the Treaty on behalf of Indignous First Nations.
But first things first. The Greens will have to trash the Voice on behalf of all the Indigenous people who put it up. Did all those Indigenous people really think they were going to fool the Greens?