Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.
‘Pushing Labor to do something real on the Voice, even if it’s hard, is not going to be what causes the Greens to lose their new Qld seats.’
And, of course, the Greens aren’t doing what you say they’re doing.
At the most they’re putting Treaty ahead of Voice (and not all of them are doing that, either).
You must be very disappointed with them.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #197 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 4:54 pm
Exactly.
Talk about trying to argue his case from the pov of a privileged White Man! How could he ever truly understand what a simple acknowledgement of their name on the birth certificate of the nation will mean to Indigenous Australians?
Let me guess, Voice Endeavour is taking the position of Lidia Thorpe simply because she’s a Greens’ Indigenous Senator?
Maybe ‘Wreck the Voice Endeavour’ fits better?
Or maybe:
‘Littleproud’s Proud Little Helper’?
@Sir Henry Parkes
The Statement from the Heart was a political compromise. It reflected a compromise between what indigenous people wanted, and what they thought they could ask for without Rupert Murdoch going feral.
Don’t use it as a limit on what we should do. That’s not what it’s for
this report in the australian was actualy about the liberals not labor benson forgets to mention that the one of the factions causing problims in victoria is lead buy morrisons close mp allex hawke and in victorian the authurs of tthe report credlin husband locknane and hume are bioth involved in the victorian factions in locnanes case the right so if liberals were to break up the state based factions his own power would be threatind sounds like code foor the moderits and hawke
”
Griffsays:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 4:27 pm
I suppose Lidia Thorpe’s loss of Northcote doesn’t count according to Voice Endeavour, as it was initially won in a by-election
”
ALP lost federal electorate Throsby to Greens in a by-election and won it back in General election. According to VE that doesn’t count.
Is Voice Endeavour female? Wow, do they even know how little the majority of Indigenous Women think about their position in our society? Being seen and acknowledged is really important to their self esteem.
The Statement from the Heart was a political compromise. It reflected a compromise between what indigenous people wanted, and what they thought they could ask for without Rupert Murdoch going feral.
That is absolute bullshit and an insult to all the Indigenous Australians who contributed to The Uluru Statement From the Heart!
VE
What you’re saying isn’t even Green policy.
The self-delusion continues.
According to Littleproud’s Proud Little Helper, the Uluru Statement from the Heart was framed by Rupert Murdoch.
Ven @ #210 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 5:04 pm
Fail. 😉
What have Voice Endeavour, Bandt, Abbott, Albrechtson, Price, Thorpe, Littleproud and Sheridan have in common?
It seems the penny might at last be dropping that life is not all beer and skittles for men either. Perhaps it’s time we started focussing on the needs of our boys as well and not just those of our girls.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/male-decline-is-real-and-it-s-a-problem-for-women-too-20221216-p5c6yd.html
‘Pushing Labor to do something real on the Voice, even if it’s hard, is not going to be what causes the Greens to lose their new Qld seats.’
Who is pushing whom? I have yet to see a fully agreed Greens policy position on what Labor has proposed for the Voice, let alone a stronger policy.
I would not go so far as to say this leaves the Greens in tatters. In other issues (climate change, IR) the Greens have had a clear position and negotiated a constructive outcome with Labor that I think was credible for them (i..e stronger than original Labor position). But I don’t see this on the Voice.
Interview with author of new book on “Founders” which includes Musk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62bqOb9w-RM
I just ordered a copy on Amazon for a bit of holiday reading.
I see the usual Labor partisans have taken to their typical personal attacks, this time on VE.
VE is going far beyond what even Thorpe is proposing.
I’ve not heard any Greens MP saying anything vaguely like it.
Elon “stable genius” musk.
https://twitter.com/hiltzikm/status/1604627142423515136
Twitter’s ban on links to Mastodon, etc., looks to be a flagrant violation of EU rules for platforms. Penalty: up to 20% of the violator’s sales (not just profits). @elonmusk
is really playing with wildfire here:
God I hope he stays on as CEO of twitter forever, this is so wild.
Scanning here for anything useful, I come to the conclusion that Greens supporters are all unemployed and with no social circle
Hence on here all day going around and around aka pacers on a trotting track
And hence having no economic credentials apart from holding their hands out to government and promoting that those in employment pay higher taxes to fund their unemployment benefits (and spitting their jealousy at those who have achieved)
Meanwhile, back in the real world
“Here we go again says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Scanning here for anything useful, I come to the conclusion that Greens supporters are all unemployed and with no social circle
Hence on here all day going around and around aka pacers on a trotting track
And hence having no economic credentials apart from holding their hands out to government and promoting that those in employment pay higher taxes to fund their unemployment benefits (and spitting their jealousy at those who have achieved)
Meanwhile, back in the real world”
Unfortunately, I had to come to a similar conclusion. After years of posting on various websites, I have never read a post from an alleged Greens supporter demanding more jobs and better salaries, it’s all always about more welfare and unemployment benefits…. That truly makes me wonder about those alleged Greens supporters.
David Rowe
Here we go again says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:25 pm
And hence having no economic credentials apart from holding their hands out to government and promoting that those in employment pay higher taxes to fund their unemployment benefits (and spitting their jealousy at those who have achieved)
___________________
Observer, Well said. Can you give us an update on your own economic credentials; current realestate holdings, stocks, bonds and collectables. Is the Super still at $3.5 million? An update is well overdue.
Socrates says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:11 pm
“I would not go so far as to say this leaves the Greens in tatters.”
It’s actually the Greens’ credibility that I believe is in tatters. They have been all over the shop from the time of the Black Wiggle and Bandt is not improving matters. Their position on the Statement from the Heart smacks of arrogance and paternalism. This will not sit well with the youth voters who the Greens are entirely dependent on to maintain their current percentage. Stunts may have inherent appeal to the easily influenced but that same group tend to have a social conscience. Appalling vandalism and bastardry by the Greens.
Bystander @ #213 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 4:40 pm
Right, well, I am confused because the article, while making some good points, doesnt really have a point.
We focus on women in society because society has some system bias towards men. In essence, this is a focus on system bias – not a focus on women at all. It is just that women generally are the ones who suffer from this – as does society because we will do better as a society without these ‘man’made biases.
To look at why boys struggle at school is a valid endeavour but we cant confuse it with fixing social systemic bias. I mean, boys do seem to be struggling academically – but they end up earning more than women. So…. ummmm…. remind me again what the point of the article is? Is it possible that in a more gender equal, merit based society boys might quickly put their heads down and study because they will find themselves as men cleaning toilets?
Again, I must stress that boys having problems at school is something we need to address. But neither this nor striving for a gender blind meritocracy is to blame for the toxic antifeminism we sometimes see. That sort of behaviour is on us (men).
@VE
I agree with most of what you say, it’s pretty hard to overcome the Labor groupthink on here, and as someone with an actual job who largely posts on a phone I don’t bother
Yes the new ALP government is head and shoulders better than the previous coalition shambles, but that’s hardly a very high bar to clear is it….. I’d rate the coalition as a solid F and the new government a B- at best
The wins as I see them are their improvement in diversity of representation in the house (not so much the senate), the IR laws were a step in the right direction, the NACC (with caveats about the lack of public hearings), the abolition/reformation of the AAT (very well done by Dreyfuss), and the Chalmers review into the RBA. Plus their generally consultative approach to legislation.
The failures (and again these are still vast improvements on the coalition, but not wins).
Energy policy – if average cost of gas production is $5 and max is $7, then a $12 cap is bullshit and Aussies are being mugged. The cartel wins again. Aussies get nothing for their own resources and get gouged for the privelege
Health – ending PCR subsidy pushing costs back to the states, nothing done about GPs/primary care (yay a review!), backflip initially on Covid pay for casuals (but now ended anyway), FA done about aged care
Plus Albo has in my view lost all rights to ever mention his ‘log cabin story’s about growing up disadvantaged ever again, consider
A serious and growing housing crisis, but the ALP panders to business to allow another 200pa migrants into the country, with zero thoughts on where to house them (yay a summit!)
Nothing but indexation for welfare recipients, because we ‘can’t afford it’
Still imprisoning hundreds on Nauru and denying them healthcare, Claire O’Neill (who I generally like) has used a heck of a lot of government doublespeak and coalition talking points here
Continue the aukus folly at massive cost for little or no benefit
FA to the global climate fund despite our historical and growing role in fuelling that crisis
Continue to approve further exploration for fossil fuels and actively subsidising development
Nothing meaningful for communities that are literally underwater or about to be, and areas burnt out by the 2019 fires still living in tents as are many after the Lismore floods
Yes there’s a difference, and I’d much rather the ALP to the coalition, but to say either is working in the best interests of Australians is laughable. The ALP just use lube
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Good post.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:00 pm
@Sir Henry Parkes
The Statement from the Heart was a political compromise. It reflected a compromise between what indigenous people wanted, and what they thought they could ask for without Rupert Murdoch going feral.
Don’t use it as a limit on what we should do. That’s not what it’s for
_________________________________________________________
I don’t think anyone is saying we should stop once the voice to parliament is established. On the contrary, it should be a beginning, where indigenous representatives can talk about many things, such as treaty, truth-telling, indigenous incarceration rates and poor education.
Maybe the Uluru Statement from the Heart was all indigenous representatives thought they could ask for, because of Rupert Murdoch, the National Party etc. But it is what indigenous Australian representatives decided, and that makes it more representative of indigenous Australia than what you think is best for them.
So get on board; back the voice; fight for treaty and truth-telling and let’s go forward.
PageBoi @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:44 pm
I agree with most of your points. However, are the majority of the “fails” a lack of action? If so, did the runs on the board to date earn any goodwill that they may be addressed in future? Honest question, as personally I think Labor’s steady progress is to their credit.
Edit: I do not agree with your last comment.
‘PageBoi says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:44 pm
@VE
I agree with most of what you say, it’s pretty hard to overcome the Labor groupthink on here, and as someone with an actual job who largely posts on a phone I don’t bother
Yes the new ALP government is head and shoulders better than the previous coalition shambles, but that’s hardly a very high bar to clear is it…..’
—————————————————
Well there we have it. ‘Same Old Same Old’ is Dead!
So… solution? Admit that the Big Lie damaged the prospects of Labor getting into government for nine years?
Shit no! Shift the goal posts!
Here are just some of Labor’s achievements in 7 months. Compare and contrast the total lack of Greens’ actual substantive changes over 30 pathetic years:
1. A woman (Susan Kenny) is appointed as acting president to clean out the AAT.
2. After eons of granting a large majority of grants to male researchers, the NHMRC is to award grants on a roughly fifty/fifty basis.
3. 14 women and 9 men in the Victorian Labor Government Cabinet.
4. Respect in the Workplace legislation.
5. Gender equity is a core objective of the new IR legislation.
6. Katy Gallagher: $5m over five years to boost the number of women in public office. The women in public office grant is designed to encourage – and prepare – more women to run for elections at all levels.
7. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps.
8. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left by a certain commercial interest.
9. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee.
10. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
11. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget.
12. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
13. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
14. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
15. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence Against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
16. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
17. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
18. Labor is fully committed to implementing all the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
19. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
20. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
21. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
22. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
23. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
24. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
25. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
26. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
27. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
28. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
29. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
30. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
31. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
32. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
nath at 4.15 pm
You have raised a serious issue but the answers are much more complex than you suggest.
The reason why the Voice text will be general not specific is that is the nature of such constitutional amendments.
The usual comparison is with the High Court, the details of which are arranged historically by Parliament. That doesn’t mean the court can be changed on a political whim. Why not?
The answer is in terms of political conventions. Given the parlous position of the LNP and its back-to-the-future leader in Dutton, Labor has a real chance to establish new conventions relating to the Voice, which will be quite different from the shabby paternalism of Howard and Latham in 2004 and 2005.
One point to look for in the legislation setting up the details of the Voice will be the direct references to the Voice as a means of implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
The new political conventions about the Voice will have the support of the Teals in Kooyong etc and of those electorates. Even if the LNP move beyond Dutton it would be difficult for them electorally to overturn the new conventions re the Voice.
This is why Dutton has yet to fully oppose the Voice. That is his inclination but he knows the politics of opposing it will be messy and counter-productive. He is in a real historical bind re Voice, reinforced by Teal seats.
I agree with most of what you say, it’s pretty hard to overcome the Labor groupthink on here, and as someone with an actual job who largely posts on a phone I don’t bother
Page Boi,
I have an actual job too! It allows me to post on a laptop. Don’t be so condescending! 😡
Very orderly. In NSW, fair chance it would have been an arrest in public or at home and bail refused so some overworked magistrate would have had to do all the bail work.
In the UK, the cases would be heard next week and the bucket thrower would be taken down.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/three-men-charged-over-violent-melbourne-derby-pitch-invasion-20221219-p5c7jm.html
Dr Doolittle @ 5.53pm has hit the nail on the head.
I think that what happened at the soccer has proven, once and for all, that all the security around the perimeter of the ground is essentially useless.
Yes there’s a difference, and I’d much rather the ALP to the coalition, but to say either is working in the best interests of Australians is laughable. The ALP just use lube
And to think I get threatened with being banned for saying things much less nasty than this. I guess political parties can’t sue for defamation?
C@tmomma @ #234 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 5:29 pm
Snipers on the roof. Crocodile moats. Or two stadiums, one for the game and another with huge screens in the middle for the spectators. Or better yet, VR! You can run onto the ground and punch a player but nobody gets hurt.
You get threatened with being banned for reacting like a petulant child when rebuked, which you’re continuing to do right now.
It would be good though if people could make their points without recourse to anal sex metaphors.
Voice before a treaty makes sense because the people chosen to form the group giving that voice would then help frame the treaty.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:55 pm
Page Boi,
I have an actual job too! It allows me to post on a laptop. Don’t be so condescending!
_____________________
What job would that be ?
Is it a paying job in the private sector ?
Whilst still on topic of Greens the Melbourne Age offers the following headline on line –
Greens ‘still safe’ as 20 Victorians visit hospital after eating recalled spinach
A rather persistent and nasty Greens’ lie is that the Albanese Govenrment will stop with the Voice.
A grift. A cover up. And the fallout after MAGA cultists call out Trump’s con
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/16/2142164/-Trump-further-alienates-his-base-with-the-ultimate-Holiday-grift
“Donald Trump’s ‘major announcement’ Thursday truly exceeded the already exceedingly low expectations.
Trump digital trading cards! Priced to sell at just $99! An exclusive series of ‘really incredible artwork’ (i.e. hilarious parody) depicting, for instance, Trump as a strapping superhero bearing his sculpted chest, as a cowboy brandishing an American flag atop a white horse, and as an aviator-clad astronaut.
But wait, there’s more! Each card comes with a raffle ticket, giving lucky winners the chance to perhaps dine with Trump, hit the links on one of his glorious golf courses, or land an exclusive 1-on-1 Zoom meeting with the man, the myth, the legend!
“Remember, Christmas is coming and this makes a great Christmas gift,” Trump said in the video introduction of his new collectibles. The ultimate Holiday grift.
After right-wing journalist and noted Trump shill John Solomon tweeted out Trump’s announcement, a number of his pro-Trump followers responded with dismay, disgust, and even anger (as documented by former Republican and right-wing tracker Ron Filipkowski).
“Trump is becoming a joke,” said someone with the handle @PowerDownMedia. “Sad. I really hoped he could live up to his hype. But, he can’t.”
“are you f(&King kidding me?” seethed @RollTide_2022.
@rtcollins wrote, “Pretty sure I just fell off the Trump train. Unbelievable.”
“Has Trump lost his mind really trading cards how the f*** is that going to help our country,” wondered @gunner6314.
Over at reddit, conservative commenters were equally as brutal, calling Trump’s trading card gambit “one of the cringiest things” ever and incredulously asking “Is… is this a joke?”
Another reddit user responded, “It is a joke, and it’s real.”
Filipkowski marveled at the fallout, writing, “I have never seen MAGA react like this to anything Trump has ever done.”
Apparently Filipkowski wasn’t the only one blown away by the savage response. A little over an hour later, Team Trump rushed out a platform of supposed First Amendment reforms, framing them as the real announcement.
“BREAKING: President Trump announces free speech policy plan for 2024,” Don Jr. tweeted
The bottom line here is that Trump couldn’t have picked a better time to make a fool of himself. He is perhaps at his weakest moment politically since just before he won the 2016 election. And he is vulnerable and showing signs of desperation—enough so that he rolled out a gloriously mockable and transparent grift and then launched a coverup a little over an hour later.
“
‘Dr John says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 6:19 pm
Whilst still on topic of Greens the Melbourne Age offers the following headline on line –
Greens ‘still safe’ as 20 Victorians visit hospital after eating recalled spinach’
——————————————
The Greens have introduced deadly nightshade into the Voice debate.
Here we go again says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Scanning here for anything useful, I come to the conclusion that Greens supporters are all unemployed and with no social circle
Hence on here all day going around and around aka pacers on a trotting track
And hence having no economic credentials apart from holding their hands out to government and promoting that those in employment pay higher taxes to fund their unemployment benefits (and spitting their jealousy at those who have achieved)
Meanwhile, back in the real world
—————————-
The Greens base is mostly wealthier middle class and young renters but many people online reckon they are progressive and its these people that want higher welfare payments and higher taxes but only some of them would be on welfare.
For Nath & the fanbois:
” …he shows again and again that he is nothing more than an intellectual pipsqueak, an entitled prat born on third who thinks he hit a triple, a walking embodiment of the fact that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and that that dangerous thing becomes even more dangerous when you load it down with billions of dollars of personal wealth.”. Guess who(m)?
Mexicanbeemer @ #245 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
This description is much more applicable to some of the (many) Labor partisans here – some seem to spend all day every day on here. Is this a paying gig for them? Otherwise, I don’t know how they do it.
Again, I must stress that boys having problems at school is something we need to address. But neither this nor striving for a gender blind meritocracy is to blame for the toxic antifeminism we sometimes see. That sort of behaviour is on us (men).
As far as I can see the greatest threat to boys doing well at school is peer group pressure, unless you’re in the nerds group. Much greater social standing is given to the sports jocks or the surfers. And a lot of those ideas are inculcated in our boys by the media. Just think about who makes the most money in our society?
Successful sporting stars.
Have we all voted in Elon’s Twitter poll today? Should he stay or should he go? 🙂
Taylormade @ #242 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
Not that it’s any of your business, but yes it is. I can earn a little on top of my pension and I do.