Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.
Return of the track (open thread)
The return of the Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack federal polling aggregate, which confirms what you already knew about Labor’s commanding position since coming to power in May.
320 comments on “Return of the track (open thread)”
Mexicanbeemer @ #301 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 8:42 pm
Take my son for example. Suspended 3 times in high school. Left in Year 11. None of his teachers cared and he repaid that lack of caring about him with a care less attitude to them.
Until … the Deputy Principal (A former Army man), sat him down when he came back to school after his 3rd suspension was over and had a genuine conversation with him. It turned his life around. So he left school after Year 11 and went to TAFE. Now he has as good a job as some of his friends who left after Year 12 and better than others.
Sometimes classrooms, 5 days a week, aren’t the best place for some students. Maybe a move back to a mix or practical and theoretical is called for for boys?
Paul Dibb at the ANU on the Ukraine-Russia War:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 6:56 pm
I’m sorry if I’ve offended anyone, but I honestly believe that we have some serious problems in this country, the housing crisis, cost of living crisis, climate change (affecting Australia terribly as seen by the fires and floods) being just some examples.
I’m not prepared to say we’re in the sunny uplands from here because the ALP are in because we aren’t.
Of course we aren’t. You don’t have to apologize for making the perfectly obvious observation that we are in truly deep trouble on a large number of fronts.
No-one was claiming we are ‘the sunny uplands’.
We are in the throes of the Anthropocene Extinction Event. The key manageable drivers are per capita consumption and the gross population. No party, except for maybe PHON, wants to stop mass net migration. It is a Ponzi Scheme that chews up ecosystems and species. Always has and always will.
Take climate. We can’t even get the Greens to call for a total ban on all but emergency air travel. We certainly can’t stop Biden, Modhi and Xi from cooking the planet beyond 1.5 degrees. The squabbles about underwriting insurance, building berms and building sea walls have barely started. We have not even faintly begun to comprehend that there are no longer any ‘rules’ for fire management because the ‘rules’ are being driven by erratic and large changes in temperature and precipitation.
Take the relationship between housing policy and tax policy. The nanosecond you try to rock that boat the majority of Australians who own their own homes are going to kick you out of government.
Take the relationship between First Nations and the Invaders. The invaders, led by Littleproud and Bandt are wrecking a once in a century opportunity offered by First Nations who are getting kicked in the teeth for their magnanimity.
Take the massive problem of inter-generational wealth transfer. Those who have it are clinging to it for dear life.
And so on and so forth.
The acceptable UN process for COP plenaries is that you keep talking and keep talking, gradually removing the bracketed text, until everyone still awake agrees to the final text. There is usually frantic talks in the corridors. Text, usually a word or a phrase at a time, is traded for other text. National delegates are sometimes to be seen asleep at their desks, exhausted. Gradually, the hall empties until the hard heads are left. Usually, the text becomes more an more bland to get everyone in the cart.
It rather looks like the China rep has smashed UN negotiation conventions here.
Off-topic (it would seem), Albanese, Wong, and DFAT seem to have achieved at least a morsel of rapprochement with China after tossers Morrison & Dutton stuffed things up by treating S-W Pacific nations with disdain. And as for Mrs. Birminham’s son, he’s got a cheek to proffer gratuitous advice.
As for school teachers, I can only recall two good ones: dear Miss Betteridge, Kiama Primary School principal (’57) & dear Miss Propsting, who taught music until she became exasperated with male students, leaving the classroom in tears, never to return. If you’re out there, Miss Propsting, my apologies – you were the one who I blame for my interest in classical music, plus my dear dad.
BREAKING: UK High Court rules that the government’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is legal.
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:59 pm
Paul Dibb at the ANU on the Ukraine-Russia War:
It is a good talk.
If he follows through there are thousands of former employees who will be receiving severance for longer than Elon lasted as CEO of twitter (and firer of twitter employees).
Many of my schoolteachers spring to mind even after almost 60 years. (And that’s something most professions never achieve.) Most were earnest and dedicated to their craft and to their students. Many were likeable. A few helped me achieve pretty useful grades. But the two who were also inspirational taught me some of the most important things about myself. The first was to trust myself to seek and explore whatever interested me. The second was how to relate to complexity and how to admit to being wrong. I can’t think how to measure that.
a r @ #309 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
What kind of person would take on the job with Mr Musk’s ego in the wings? I’ve guessed wrong a couple of times, but I think the search for a new CEO might take a while.
A few years ago my sister and I were talking about school and about teachers we remember and in some cases had in common. She is teacher. I told her that in fifty years time fifty- and sixty- somethings will be talking about her.
Poor Musk. He lived in his right wing bubble; 40 billion to discover it was a bubble.
Agree, LR. I can remember most of whom I attended school with but ask me what I had for tea last night, I’d be hard-pressed albeit the science is fairly settled thereof. I’m off.
Mavis @ Monday, December 19, 2022 at 10:59 pm
“Agree, LR. I can remember most of whom I attended school with but ask me what I had for tea last night, I’d be hard-pressed albeit the science is fairly settled thereof. I’m off.”
No Pepys? I have come to look for it oft nights.
Sadly, it’s a ruse. Elon realises he needs to install a puppet CEO and return to SpaceX (where he has a puppet CEO). The poll is just a cover.
Excellent article on the contorted finances surrounding the buyout of Twitter.
The bottom line is that its only going to get worse. Some of the desirable outcomes include.
– Elon selling more shares to buy out the banks’ stake, thus sending Tesla shares plummeting.
– The banks taking legal action against Elon.
Late Riser @ #310 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 9:45 pm
Anyone greedy enough to want a quick easy payday, Machiavellian enough to want a go at pulling the political strings, or naive enough to truly believe that Twitter is the future of free speech and they’re the one to save it.
Twitter appears to be full of volunteers at the moment.
Maybe, if Twitter’s majority shareholder can be bothered to do a proper one. But plausible outcomes also include:
– Elon gets bored and just gives it to the next random volunteer he sees
– Twitter runs with effectively no CEO for awhile (kind of like what’s happening at Tesla/SpaceX/etc. right now) as Elon washes his hands of the whole thing and goes back to his other companies
Prevailing theory on Twitter appears to be that Elon will just send Twitter in for bankruptcy proceedings. Not sure I credit that one. But it’s not like Twitter is profitable, or likely to be any time soon.
Cud Chewer @ #315 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 10:55 pm
Yes, didn’t he openly say as much? Long before the poll, I mean.
But he’s been having such a terrible run over the past several days. Specifically because of Twitter. And not just limited to “the media” and random public sentiment. He’s been called out by Twitter’s original founder, and has a major Tesla shareholder trying to oust him as CEO. Makes me think this isn’t his intended timing or manner of leaving (although the poll leaves the timing entirely up to him).
Would the big-ego technoking of everything really expect to lose that poll, though? I suspect that like most of the sociopaths operating in the ‘billionaire CEO’ echelon of society, Elon genuinely thinks he’s way more popular than he actually is. Dunning-Kruger and all that.
There is an existing pile of research on the crappiness of “whole word” approaches to literacy for all youngsters. There an emerging understanding that it is worse, and possibly much worse, for some boys.
Phonemic awareness is very useful skill set.
RE: Polling Predictions.
Voice of Endeavour @ 70.5am, Monday
You neglected to consider my caveat at the end of the 2nd paragraph.
I didn’t state that the ALP would win any seats, I suggested that the 2PP margin, of the recent polling, if taken to the 2025 Federal Election could see the government returned with up to 22 further seats.
My projection was based upon a national swing of up to 5%. Regional & State factors must always be considered.
If the Greens can take and retain seats from the LNP, I am equally happy, too.