Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.
Here we go again @ #220 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 5:25 pm
So, calling out the desperate plight of the 1 in 6 kids and 1 in 8 adults living in poverty, is an unemployed lazy Greens partisan whinge thing …?
That’s an interesting defence of Labor’s inaction. A very Tory type of thing to suggest as well I reckon. 😆
William Bowe @ #239 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:13 pm
Harumph! 😀
I’m sorry if I’ve offended anyone, but I honestly believe that we have some serious problems in this country, the housing crisis, cost of living crisis, climate change (affecting Australia terribly as seen by the fires and floods) being just some examples.
I’m not prepared to say we’re in the sunny uplands from here because the ALP are in because we aren’t. For all the talk of energy prices, stage 3 and all the rest, for mine I was really heartened by Albo talking about no-one being left behind, but yet we see it ever day that heaps of people are being left behind, and there’s nothing serious on the cards to help them. We are an extremely wealthy country where working people with jobs live in their cars or in caravan parks and pubs. The social contract in this country is broken
That’s why BOTH the major parties primary vote is in the toilet, and the vote for ‘anything else’s grows both on the right and on the left, and it’s why I’ll always preference the ALP as the lesser of 2 evils, but that’s all it is. BW can post as many listicles as he likes but the core fact remains that Australia isn’t what it used to be, and I’m so thankful for the greens, the Teals, Pocock and even Lambie to keep it honest.
I’m hoping the review body that Pocock managed to get up around welfare payments especially might shame the government into doing something on that front
Ven @ #244 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 5:25 pm
Thanks for the link. The quote at the end asks an interesting question about the true nature of Trumpists.
Also, I pulled some numbers off the published graph. If you run your eye down each column you’ll see the first column (unfavorable) is pretty steady, the second column (favourable) suffers some dips, and third column (undecided) tends to increase as the favourable column drops. Over the two-year period I sampled, Trump’s 8 point loss splits 3 to Unfavourable and 5 to Undecided.
2020-12-30 54 43 3
2021-01-31 55 43 3
2021-02-27 55 42 3
2021-03-31 55 41 3 *** a
2021-04-27 55 42 4
2021-05-29 55 41 4
2021-06-30 55 41 4
2021-07-27 55 41 4
2021-08-28 54 41 4
2021-09-30 54 41 5
2021-10-26 54 41 5
2021-11-28 54 41 5
2021-12-30 54 40 5
2022-01-31 54 40 6
2022-02-27 54 40 5
2022-03-31 55 40 5
2022-04-27 55 40 5
2022-05-29 55 40 5
2022-06-30 55 40 5
2022-07-27 55 40 5
2022-08-28 56 39 5 *** b
2022-09-29 57 37 6 *** c
2022-10-26 56 38 6
2022-11-27 57 35 8 *** b, c
2022-12-15 57 35 8
*** a – net loss to undecideds
*** b – net loss to unfavorables
*** c – net loss to undecideds
C@tmomma @ #250 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:49 pm
Giving voice to blatant scammers of the calibre of Trump tells me he isn’t suited to running the platform. No problem him owning it, but not running it.
Rex Douglas,
You do realise that even if the government tried to ‘solve’ poverty by throwing money at it that there would still be poverty? Some adults and children are in dysfunctional families, for one reason or another, and more money isn’t the ideal solution. And even then there will probably be, oh ~ ‘1 in 6 kids and 1 in 8 adults’ still living in poverty. Maybe a few less.
Bystander says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:10 pm
It seems the penny might at last be dropping that life is not all beer and skittles for men either. Perhaps it’s time we started focussing on the needs of our boys as well and not just those of our girls. ———————————
Gender advocates can be their own worst enemy because there are issues and some industries have a lack of women but gender quotas are being used where they are not needed and help women that don’t need it.
Simon Henny Penny Katich @ #238 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:12 pm
I was kind of thinking less security due to their seeming uselessness, rather than more, but I take your point.
‘Just think about who makes the most money in our society?’
Gates, Musk, Bezos
I’ll hazard a guess that ground invasions would be less likely if the crowds were watching gladiators vs lions or the arena was flooded for naval battles.
Good reading. Thanks rhwombat.
No offence here pageboi. Your post was articulated well.
I think most ALP supporters recognise the limitations of the current policy settings and would like to see more.
@cat
Yes some families don’t want to ‘do the right thing’ but you do realise that’s the exact sort of framing that the right uses?
I notice that the government still talks about mutual obligations etc, but never the corollary that ie maybe a roof over your head and enough food to eat isn’t too much to ask? Tony Bourke (who I am a huge fan of) is still insisting on punitive arrangements for people with few options and even continuing the odious parents next program, I mean WTF? Labor are no friends of the poor
Simon
Thank you for your thoughtful response to my comment and your acknowledgement that the education needs of boys are being largely neglected and that needs to be rectified. Where we differ I think is that I see it as part of a growing systemic bias against boys/men in general and you don’t. To me the whole idea that you can rectify one form of systemic bias by introducing another, is just misguided and flies in the face of what an egalitarian country like Australia should be trying to achieve; ie. equal opportunity (not necessarily outcomes) for all.
You speak of toxic anti feminism and I am sure that exists in some quarters but I am just as sure that anti masculinity is a growing phenomenon too and that needs to be addressed as well. Neither is better or more justified than the other and both will cause serious problems in the future if allowed to go unchecked.
The article I linked was mainly from a feminist perspective but this was the message that came out of it for me.
PageBoi says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 6:56 pm
I’m sorry if I’ve offended anyone, but I honestly believe that we have some serious problems in this country, the housing crisis, cost of living crisis, climate change (affecting Australia terribly as seen by the fires and floods) being just some examples.
————————-
No offense because there are times when all governments deserve criticism and its one of the ways policies can be improved because this site might be small but some here talk to politicians and it sometimes gets a response that helps make sense of what the government is doing.
This is also a good point: for manbabies demonstrative hypocrisy IS the exercise of power and self-regard. “Look at me! Look at me! I can break your toys! Look at me! Look at meeeeeeee!”
“Player One says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 6:44 pm
Mexicanbeemer @ #245 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
…This description is much more applicable to some of the (many) Labor partisans here – some seem to spend all day every day on here. Is this a paying gig for them? Otherwise, I don’t know how they do it.”
If you have noticed, it’s because you are doing the same: “spend all day every day on here”… Are you being paid?
PageBoi
I’m all for parents being educated.
You can’t read to your children if you can’t read. You can’t feed them properly if you’ve never learnt to cook.
Offering (and it should be voluntary) ‘at risk’ parents help – the earlier the better, before the child’s born is recommended – has life long benefits for children, leading to lower crime rates, higher academic achievement, better job prospects, better health outcomes, and so on.
It’s also economically justifiable (not just the prevention stuff above) because early intervention is cheaper than trying to help the child when they get to school.
It’s part of the reason there’s increasing focus on genuine early education (not just putting your baby in childcare).
Of course, having parents who are employed, by itself, improves a child’s future prospects.
The school system was designed for boys. They should thrive under it.
Zoomster – May I ask a question – do you think teacher pay should recognise teachers who produce better results or have more advanced qualifications?
Bystander
Thank you for your thoughtful response to my comment and your acknowledgement that the education needs of boys are being largely neglected and that needs to be rectified. Where we differ I think is that I see it as part of a growing systemic bias against boys/men in general and you don’t. To me the whole idea that you can rectify one form of systemic bias by introducing another, is just misguided and flies in the face of what an egalitarian country like Australia should be trying to achieve; ie. equal opportunity (not necessarily outcomes) for all.
—————————————
The problem is its taking Australia down the American political road and that’s not an attractive place and we are already seeing aggressive backlashes against women’s sport and women in the media and on social media.
PageBoi @ #265 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 7:17 pm
You’ve made some pretty gross generalisations here, again, Page Boi.
Firstly, an acknowledgement of reality, is NOT adopting RW framing. I was simply making the point that throwing money at a problem isn’t always the ideal solution. I have an intimate understanding of the issue of dysfunctional families and the poverty they suffer from and I just think there are more practical ways to address the problem.
By your saying that those in poverty need a roof over their heads, you’ve identified a problem but you haven’t offered a solution. So, my solution is, build more social and affordable housing and a rent to buy scheme. There should be intimate involvement with Social Services and the roof over the family’s head should be owned by the government so it can’t be put into the pokies or up the arms or into a pipe by the parents. There are nutrition schemes and education scholarships supplied by The Smith Family for underprivileged kids. Power bills can be covered with EAPA vouchers. Food Banks can provide food to eat. Charities can provide clothes.
Sometimes you just have to wrap things around families and provide help and support, rather than just throwing money at them and leaving them to it to work it out for themselves.
C@T
Money can fix somethings but not everything and if the structural problems are not fixed then more money wont fix it.
Alpo @ #268 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 7:24 pm
No, in my case it’s because I am a fast reader. I read almost everything posted here, but I don’t post continually, as some others seem able to do.
Lars
I know crap teachers who have PhDs, and I know top teachers who barely scrapped through Year 12.
As for ‘results’ – what do you mean by that?
I had a student once who was a Problem. Our attitude was that if he turned out to be a petty criminal rather than a major one we’d have saved society millions.
He’s a petty crim. *
That’s a result.
*When I was running a bookshop, he came in and cased it for me.
Results – getting students to achieve results better than they would have got. So getting someone who would have ordinarily left in yr 10 to get to uni.
Quals – teachers who help other teachers, design curriculums , teaching plans etc – should be given a higher qual ?
Zoomster
I had a student once who was a Problem. Our attitude was that if he turned out to be a petty criminal rather than a major one we’d have saved society millions.
He’s a petty crim. *
That’s a result.
*When I was running a bookshop, he came in and cased it for me.
—————————-
You can nearly always pick those kids because when i was at school we had a fantastic English teacher that was verbally abused one day by a kid that finished up spending time in jail.
Whatever it was originally designed for it is not working now. Boys are not thriving at all and that should be of great concern to any parent with school age sons.
I read recently about a couple of schools in the US that are taking a very different approach to the education of boys and the results they are achieving have been outstanding. Unfortunately in the current climate where the main focus is predominantly on the educational needs of girls no-one of any influence is interested.
Voice Endeavoursays:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 5:00 pm
@Sir Henry Parkes
The Statement from the Heart was a political compromise. It reflected a compromise between what indigenous people wanted, and what they thought they could ask for without Rupert Murdoch going feral.
Don’t use it as a limit on what we should do. That’s not what it’s for
———–
Again VD your white privilege is showing. Of course those developing the Uluru Statement From the Heart realised it was a compromise. Because they’re adults. and they’re realists. and they realised that this was a one-off opportunity to get a significant outcome for the First Nations communities. It’s not perfect but they made the judgement that this would be better than what we have AND it has THE BEST CHANCE of getting comething that will improve the lives and the place of First nation people through. What you’re saying is that you know better than them. Perhaps the best advice for you might be to shut up and listen to what they have to say instead of doing what the Voice is designed to overcome – having a whole lot of privileged white people telling the mob what they should do. If you listen you might learn something about how the real world functions.
Lars
‘Results – getting students to achieve results better than they would have got. So getting someone who would have ordinarily left in yr 10 to get to uni.’
How do you prove that?
I can’t prove my Problem was headed for Pentridge rather than Beechworth. No one can.
‘Quals – teachers who help other teachers, design curriculums , teaching plans etc – should be given a higher qual ?’
We’re collegiate by nature. Most of these things we do as a group, and there’s a lot of quid pro quo.
That kind of approach would stifle this.
Boer
I’m pretty sure that every study ever done has shown that boys get far more attention in class than girls do.
Unfortunately it tends to be negative.
I haven’t seen much evidence of schools altering their practices to benefit girls.
These days girls overwhelmingly perform better in educational outcomes than boys.
Signs of the times…one local cafe is kindly offering to employ children (13 and 14 year olds, specifically) whilst their families are up here on holiday.
Don’t know how its the school’s fault that girls are more literate when everyone can access the school library a book shop or read stuff online.
Lars
“ May I ask a question – do you think teacher pay should recognise teachers who produce better results or have more advanced qualifications?”
Why? Look at the dismal outcomes created by corporate execs on incentive based contracts. All it does is make them manage short term corporate decisions (or massage the reporting Enron style) to suit. As with teaching, it is the long term that counts, and finding people whose personal values match the organization’s.
The suggestion as per the nonsense of “agency theory” that you can align peoples’ interests to the organization’s via incentives is one of the great flops in modern management. All you do is create a system that gets gamed.
Why does this delusion survive?
Pi
Yep, but it’s not because schools have done anything particularly different.
(I’m teaching in NSW, where they don’t seem to have changed their practices since…well, they do things as a matter of course that we didn’t do when I was a student in Victoria in the 1970s…)
Maybe Zoomster and Socrates,
But NSW , QLD and VIC all have advanced teacher qualifications – so it seems the proposition has bipartisan support nonetheless?
It’s great that the girls are doing so well. The problem is that no-one seems to give a toss as to why the boys are not. If it was the other way around there would be accusations of systemic bias in the methods being used. But this way, crickets.
Lars
I’m sorry, I thought you were genuinely asking a question, rather than seeking confirmation for something you’d already made up your mind on.
Anyway – imagine a system where I don’t help a student because I can’t prove that that student is going to do better than ‘thought’, so I’m concentrating my time and effort on ones where I can demonstrate improvement. Or where I don’t discuss classroom strategies with colleagues unless they verify this, so I can put it on my CV. Or where I devote my time to getting a higher qualification, rather than putting more effort into my classes….
Whatever happened to good old fashioned clubs and spears?
No settled view zoomster. Your view is clear to me now though – thanks.
Pleasure, Lars.
…in my very early days of teaching, a colleague gained a promotion by presenting other teachers’ work as her own. We stopped sharing things with her after that.
‘zoomster says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:00 pm
Boer
I’m pretty sure that every study ever done has shown that boys get far more attention in class than girls do.
Unfortunately it tends to be negative.
I haven’t seen much evidence of schools altering their practices to benefit girls.’
———————————-
z
I believe you may have been responding to a comment by someone else.
Why does this delusion survive?
Because ‘Performance Based Pay’ for teachers has become a trope to pay some teachers more and others less. Though what doesn’t seem to be taken into account is that some classes are different to others and it has nothing to do with the teacher quality, good or bad.
Read in context, the offensive statement was a anal rape metaphor, not a (consensual) anal sex metaphor. What’s next, one wonders?
Boer
Soz.
C@T
Can’t see how performance can be measured because exams and tests can be misleading and the real test is long after the kid left school.
Lars:
Those who can … do
Those who can’t … teach
Those who can’t teach … teach others to teach
And those who can’t teach others to teach … write books on education!
And as Zoomster noted: