The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.
Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.
Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.
A version of the robodebt briefing cleared by Payne was shown to the commission on Tuesday.
The version prepared by public servants noted: “The comprehensive nature of these reviews will send an important message to those all around the country that they could be next and there is very little chance they will avoid punishment.”
Payne’s annotation changed “they could be next” to “you’re next”.
Finger prints all over it..
SfM had better have his Schultz defence well prepared
Lots of articles crabwalking away from Xi’s dynamic zero in this edition of the Global Times. Naturally enough, since the Chicommies have never made a mistake, it is all good.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/
Sceptic @ #1927 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 5:54 pm
Her lame excuse was that it ‘only’ referred to those people intentionally setting about to defraud the Commonwealth via the Social Security system.
Yeah nah.
Back to BAU? Afghanistan v Pakistan:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281696.shtml
Two things about Robodebt:
1. I thought Ms Taylor was amazing. In some ways, the ideal witness. A public servant who absolutely tried to do the right thing all the way down the line. She knew her stuff inside out and could still remember it five years after retiring. She used every proper internal channel to let the top of the department know what was wrong, and did not put a foot out of line (by leaking, etc). In some ways, her detailed letter in plain English to Campbell – and the response to it – may be the most damning evidence against Campbell and the senior people in DHS – far more than “failing to notice” that the need for legislation had been excised silently from briefings and then the NPP.
2. Commissioner Holmes zeroed in like a guided missile on the moral culpability of Payne and her political colleagues when she questioned Payne about the press releases that conflated deliberate criminal fraud with unintended overpayments (in most cases, not overpayments at all) time and again. Payne showed absolutely no concern for the unfortunate debt letter recipient who would have struggled to meet the complex social security reporting requirements and who was being threatened with jail unless they could prove their innocence. And Payne, in constantly going on about the fraud and missing the point made by Holmes time and again about the effect of these press releases, shows what an uncaring person she was.
I wonder if Payne regarded the mental anguish and suicides of those helpless “customers” as mere collateral damage in the pursuit of the $1b budget contribution.
‘Payne’ could be a contender for this year’s nominative determinism award, alongside Bankman-Fried.
“Attack on Melitopol bridge – report
There were unverified reports on social media of an attack on a bridge behind the front lines in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, which is seen as vital to Russia’s defence of territory it holds in the south, including Crimea, Reuters reports.
Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in Zaporizhzhia region, shared video on his Telegram channel of what he said was the bridge and blamed Ukrainian “terrorists” for the damage. Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of Melitopol, also shared video showing damage to what appeared to be the same bridge.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/dec/13/russia-ukraine-war-live-us-sends-first-power-equipment-to-ukraine-eu-breaks-hungary-stalemate-to-approve-18bn-aid-plan
============================
Ukraine uses munitions to target military assets and GLOC.
Russia uses munitions to target necessities of life for civilians.
Which country deserves assistance with munitions and delivery systems?
Which country deserves disarmament?
Marise Payne should be managed out of parliament ASAP.
Macarthur,
I heard yesterday that Melitopol has been turned into a Russian garrison city since they took it over. So the Ukrainians really need to drive the Russians out of there.
BK @ #1932 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
I would imagine she paid no regard to them at all.
Anyone else think Dutton has lost weight? His face looks even thinner then it was and it makes him look even more skeleton like. Almost to the point you would think he is unwell.
And Payne, in constantly going on about the fraud and deliberatelymissing the point made by Holmes time and again about the effect of these press releases, shows what an uncaring person she was.
TPOF, I added a word I think is appropriate. Hope you don’t mind.
sov cits and qanon need to be declared terrorist organisations ASAP 😡
Marisa Payne, ‘moderate’ Liberal. I have observed carefully over the years and I think the moderates are generally the meannest in economic terms. Their moderation applies purely to social and cultural issues.
Actually it’s going to be interesting to see how the Teals handle that dichotomy. While they are all progressive on social, cultural and climate issues I think there are differences on economic issues with some more conservative than others (e.g. Spender vs. Zoe Wilson).
Davo – I agree they are extremely dangerous. But they are more like ideologies than organisations so banning is difficult (radical Islamists rhetoric). Certainly any organisation promoting such views should be treated in the same way as we do those promoting extreme Islamist views; monitoring and banning if they promote violent action.
The Age 13/12
Taken together, the Albanese government says the measures would put downward pressure on power prices so that the average household would pay $230 less next year than if the government had not intervened. But it has not made public the Treasury modelling behind these claims.
_____________________
Probably best to release the modelling. I wonder why they are not making it public.
NSW Legislative Council, 12 April 2022:
8636 – Education and Early Learning – EXECUTIVE PRINCIPAL OF WALGETT COMMUNITY COLLEGE PRIMARY SCHOOL
“Latham, Mark to the Minister for Education and Early Learning
(1) How many emails did the Department Secretary Ms Harrisson receive from Nathaniel Train, the Executive Principal of Walgett Community College Primary School, outlining problems at the school and the need for assistance during his tenure?
(a) How many of these emails did the Secretary respond to in substance, not including acknowledgements of receipt?
(b) What assistance did Ms Harrisson provide?
Answer –
I am advised that over the course of two weeks in March 2022, Mr Train sent 16 emails to the “SecretaryOffice” email account.
Given the subject matter of the emails and consistent with standard practice and procedure, after an initial acknowledgement and advice on the appropriate approach and process to follow, the emails were referred to the responsible functional unit within the Department for attention and appropriate action.”
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/papers/Pages/qanda-tracking-details.aspx?pk=91437
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 6:59 pm:
“Macarthur,
I heard yesterday that Melitopol has been turned into a Russian garrison city since they took it over. So the Ukrainians really need to drive the Russians out of there.”
==========================================
Agreed. Ukraine’s challenge in launching a drive in that direction is that basically every analyst is drawing the same conclusion about where Ukraine’s best next move is. That would obviously go for Russia’s planning gurus as well. However, at least this suggests that the initiative remains with Ukraine: most analysts are focusing on Ukraine’s next moves as being crucial , whereas not so many seem to think Russia has any moves left that could prove decisive.
Seriously Oliver – let people mourn those 2 police without politics. There’ll be plenty of time to go after Latham (or anybody else ) for that matter later.
You do realise Labor may very well want/need to deal with Latham if they want anything passed in the Upper House. Maybe check your instructions?
“You do realise Labor may very well want/need to deal with Latham if they want anything passed in the Upper House.”
Not my problem.
“Maybe check your instructions?”
You haven’t been paying attention, Larf a Minute.
Taylormade @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Wow! I agree with you on this.
‘Release the model!’
Release the model!’
I didn’t realise she had been locked up
Ukraine may be waiting for the hard freeze.
There is no such thing as a ‘moderate’ Tory.
“The town of Klintsy in Russia’s southern Bryansk region was shelled overnight by Ukraine, the regional governor claimed, adding that there were no casualties or damage.
“As a result of the work of the air defence systems of the Russian Armed Forces, the missile was destroyed, some parts hit the territory of an industrial zone,” governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram.
Klintsy is a town of about 60,000 people, about 45km (28 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
Reuters was not able to immediately verify the report.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/dec/13/russia-ukraine-war-live-us-sends-first-power-equipment-to-ukraine-eu-breaks-hungary-stalemate-to-approve-18bn-aid-plan
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Clearly, Ukraine has finally received the go-ahead to start artillery, drone and missile strikes upon Russian territory proper. This will only increase as the war goes on and Western supplies build up. I hope eventually the green light will be given to ground force intrusions as well. It is time the Russian population started to fear the consequences of their support for their chosen leader’s brutal invasion.
Michael Kofman believes the Ukrainians will launch an offensive in the South in January FWIW.
As much as the Ukrainians have the moral right in this argument – its still likely the US will impose a settlement sometime next year. Most likely Russian keeps Crimea and maybe what they’ve taken in Donbass.
The strong do what they will and the weak do what they must.
No surprise to see Lars von Trier on the side of Putin.
Zwaktyld @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:04 pm
Frank-N-Furter would be using a different lens 😉
Klintsy is quite close to the meeting point between the borders of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. I wonder why that region for a strike? Possibilities:
1. Interdiction of deployment of Russian troops/assets to Belarus (I think most likely);
2. False flag by Russia to create pretext for some sort of action in Ukraine’s north (Wise? Given how stretch Russian already is in the east and south?)
3. Something else I haven’t thought of.
Payne’s contention that they were all about fraud is rubbish. Fraud as a crime requires the prosecution to prove beyond reasonable doubt that fraud took place and there was an intention to commit the crime. Robodebt could do nothing to provide proof beyond a reasonable doubt on any of these elements. This was nothing more than a Mafia-style shakedown by a government on its own citizens. Disgraceful!
Musk proving that you can be a super rich billionaire and still get radicalised by the social media right wing conspiracy hate machine.
The speed in which he’s gone from a technocrat prone to the occasional asshole moment to sounding like a braindead MAGA fuckwit chanting slogans has been something to behold.
The best thing Biden could do with his last 2 years in power is apply the blowtorch to Facebook and Google to fucking stop it. Whatever extra profits they are making from their algorithms driving people to extreme right wing content will dissipate fucking fast if there’s a new American Civil War.
Arky: “… if there’s a new American Civil War”
AKA ‘War of Northern Aggression’, as they still call it in the South.
Boerwar @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:07 pm:
“Ukraine may be waiting for the hard freeze.”
==================================
Both ISW and I agree with this:
“Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment. Reznikov stated on December 11 that Ukraine will resume counteroffensives after the “ground is firmer” during the winter when responding to a question about US Director for National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines’s forecast that Ukraine is likely to conduct counteroffensives in the spring rather than the winter. Reznikov previously stated on December 6 that Ukraine needs artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, tanks, and combat aircraft to support Ukrainian counteroffensives.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12
============================
As an aside, I notice Ukraine keeps asking “for armoured vehicles”, often even more directly expressed as “tanks”. I hope the West doesn’t simply brush this request aside.
On mental health funding.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1602594246288187393
Clem
I presume you are referring to Marise Payne.
According to Wikipedia (yeah I know) she once said of herself “I am a liberal, I am a member of the Liberal Party. I have always called myself a liberal. If I had wanted to be a conservative I would have gone to London and joined the Conservative party ”
What a pity she didn’t.
In the 90s she was vice-chair of the Australian Republican Movement, a role which drew the ire of John Howard.
She has been in the Senate for 25 years, nine of them as a Minister including spells in the very senior roles of defence and foreign affairs.
I am unaware of anything she has done that could be described as her “legacy” .
Her performance today might well be it. Ducking and weaving and obfuscation.
The advice that Robodebt needed legislation disappeared into the ether and she never turned her mind as to why.
A proposition that seemed to perplex Commissioner Holmes.
Lars Von Trier @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:11 pm:
“Michael Kofman believes the Ukrainians will launch an offensive in the South in January FWIW.
As much as the Ukrainians have the moral right in this argument – its still likely the US will impose a settlement sometime next year. Most likely Russian keeps Crimea and maybe what they’ve taken in Donbass.
The strong do what they will and the weak do what they must.”
=======================================
Lars, I see it as completely unhelpful to the cause of maintaining support in the West for Ukraine’s just resistance to Russia’s genocidal invasion of their sovereign territory to gratuitously offer a pessimistic assessment of Ukraine’s prospects of eventually achieving complete victory in their fight to expel all Russian military presence from their country. Especially considering there is very little factual evidence you or anyone could possibly possess to rationally justify such a probabilistic calculation as yours above.
Can you please clarify for me your own support, opposition or neutral acquiescence towards Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?
What would you do Arky? I’m genuinely perplexed as to a solution. 44B. Musk does not care. That would be a fraction of last years tax bill if he ever actually sold some of his stock. Tesla is doing OK. Spacex is doing OK+.
I’m still not sure he doesn’t care if twitter burns to the ground. It’s like a bad relationship. Addicted to what is bad for you. Everyone agrees that we need to redirect him to the important things he can focus that wealth at. Medicine. Renewables. EVs. Mars… Spacerockets. He’s not good at that people stuff. Stop distracting him.
Cuz i want my spacerocket goddamit.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, December 13, 2022 at 8:12 pm:
“No surprise to see Lars von Trier on the side of Putin.”
=================================
C@tmomma, I’ve just asked Lars point-blank to confirm or deny this. Do you advise I hold my breath while I wait for a reply?
I am not surprised that Greens voters are polling as the strongest backers of the Voice. Most of their voters were probably entirely unaware of the actual Greens position on the Voice; Greens voters will reliably pick what their perceive to be the most virtuous policy. NOT doing something which an Indigenous body has asked for is unthinkable to most Greens voters. Notice how Bandt and Thorpe have rapidly tread carefully on the idea of not doing the Voice before Treaty. The feedback from their branches would have been pretty clear.
Labor is the broad church the Liberals pretend to be and still cover the gamut from working class low education voters to high education high income professionals. People vote Labor for both social and economic reasons without necessarily agreeing with the whole Labor package. It is inevitable that actual Labor voters are supportive of the Voice but not AS supportive as Greens voters.
The US is warming (pun not intended) to the idea of successful winter counter-offensives by Ukraine’s army:
“Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter. Voice of America National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin reported that an unnamed senior US military official stated that, “We know the Ukrainians can fight and fight well under these [winter] conditions” on December 12. DNI Haines previously mistakenly identified the optimal window of opportunity for Ukraine to conduct more counteroffensives as the spring rather than winter on December 3. ISW previously assessed that Ukraine likely seeks to conduct successive operations through the winter of 2022–2023.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12
Jeff Kennett loses again.
Watching the World Shortcourse swimming.
GP ordered the antivirals for us and
The Pharmacist delivered them on his way home. 1st doses already taken..
Great service really
“ The government is also accusing the federal opposition of siding with the gas companies against households and small business after indicating it will vote against the legislation.”
“ While the government will most likely have the numbers with or without the Coalition, it is daring Opposition leader Peter Dutton to vote against the bill and deny the relief for low- and middle-income households.”
The Coalition, always on the wrong side of history.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-to-meet-gas-industry-but-holding-firm-against-threats-20221213-p5c5tn
I hope your right MacArthur. There’s a view that the US has given UKR enough to bleed Russia but not enough to win.
Macarthur @ #2539 Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 – 8:30 pm
No. Lars von Trier specialises in oleaginous posturing meant to generate a negative miasma. I honestly doubt he has a genuine position either way, or, to be more specific, if he perceives that we here are of a mind to hold one position, he enjoys coming along and being the spoiler.
sesms somyurek is back the only disapointing result he is the only person who admited to be a branch stacker and bad mp that of labor that has turned in to the righthearow ashame the police could find no criminal convictions the anti pockies stunt is failing with perottit
“Anyone else think Dutton has lost weight? His face looks even thinner”
He’s just realised it’s at least the next 3 terms in opposition… 😆
The US has always fully explained the reasoning behind their decisions to supply or not various munitions to Ukraine.
Free Model Ling!
Trust taylormerde to root for the chicommies…
————-
LOL taylormerde