Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Wednesday night
It is now acknowledged that John Pesutto has won Hawthorn for the Liberals, and Mornington continues to drift away from the only other teal independent in the hunt, Kate Lardner. In the latter case, today’s early votes broke 902-726 to Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, who now leads by 353. In Pakenham, the two-party votes were added for the early voting batch that appeared in the primary votes count only yesterday, and it broke to the Liberals less heavily than I had anticipated — 1135-907, turning a Labor leading of eight votes into a Liberal lead of 220. There’s evidently a complex mix in the race for the final seat in South-Eastern Metropolitan region, because the ABC’s projection now has it going to Legalise Cannabis, overtaking the Liberal Democrats who in turn overtook the second Liberal yesterday.
Tuesday night
I had a paywalled piece in Crikey today noting where the result for Labor in swing terms was particularly good (the same Chinese-heavy eastern suburbs that turned against the Liberals at the federal election) and particularly poor (the party’s northern and western Melbourne heartlands, which likewise were relatively soft for the party at the federal election). I also joined Ben Raue of The Tally Room to discuss the results on his podcast.
Turning to the count: it was a better day for the Liberals in Bass, where Aaron Brown went from 225 behind to 53 ahead after early votes broke 835-663 his way, and Mornington, where Chris Crewther’s lead went from 177 to 337 on a 747-588 break in early votes. The Liberals also got a strong batch of early votes in Pakenham, and while they are yet to be added to the two-party count, the primary vote results have boosted my Liberal two-party projection there from 50.0% to 50.8% and left my system not far off calling it for them. My system also no longer rates Benambra as in doubt.
Labor’s one good show was in Hastings, where the latest early votes batch broke 747-660 to Paul Mercurio, boosting his lead from 470 to 557. The fresh two-candidate preferred counts in Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee yesterday caused by projections in those seats to go haywire yesterday, but this is fixed now.
While I still haven’t taken a serious look at the upper house count, I note that the ABC’s projection now has Adem Somyurek taking the last seat in Northern Metropolitan for the DLP ahead of Fiona Patten of Reason, though I have a notion that Somyurek may do less than brilliantly on below-the line votes. David Limbrick of the Liberal Democrats also has his nose in front of the second Liberal now in South-Eastern Metropolitan.
Monday night
There was no significant progress today, which was spent mostly on rechecking. That will continue today, but more interesting will be the addition of as-yet-uncounted early votes that were cast outside the home district. As noted below, new indicative two-candidate preferred counts are being conducted in five seats where the wrong two candidates were picked for the count on election nights, but in no case is the result in doubt. Happily, the Victorian Electoral Commission has a page on its website where such news is related in detail on a daily basis.
Sunday night
I spent yesterday fixing bugs in my results system, and now this is done to a reasonably satisfactory level, it should resume updating promptly, at least when I have an internet connection. Most of today’s activity will involve rechecking, but fresh two-candidate counts will be conducted in seats where the initial counts picked the wrong candidates – Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee – although in no case is the result in doubt.
My system is giving away 45 seats to Labor and has them ahead in a further 11, which would result in the extraordinary achivement of an increased majority if it stuck. Seats my system is not yet calling but almost certainly soon will are Bayswater, Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Glen Waverley and Yan Yean, which get Labor to 50; Caulfield, Polwarth and Rowville, which get the Liberals to 12; and Mildura and Shepparton, which get the Nationals to not far behind the Liberals on nine. I still have nothing to offer on the upper house result, but that will hopefully change over the next day or two.
Bass. Labor’s Jordan Crugnale needed an 0.8% swing to retain her seat after the redistribution, and after looking gone on election night, a 5.0% swing in her favour on early votes puts it at 1.4%. However, the early vote count of 15427 formal votes is nearly 6000 shy of the number cast, which presumably means one of the three centres hasn’t reported yet. If the outstanding centre is more conservative than the other two, the swing on early votes — which is not broken down between individual voting centres, as would be the case at a federal election — will drop considerably when it reports, perhaps taking Crugnale’s lead with it.
Benambra. The ABC has Liberal member Bill Tilley marked down as holding off two-time independent challenger Jacqui Hawkins, but my more conservative system only gets his probability to 85.9%. He leads by 1.1% on the raw two-candidate preferred count, which is all you’ll get from the ABC — I’m still using a method that presumes to project a final result, which narrows it to 0.8%. Booth and early votes came in about where Hawkins needed to knock off his 2.6% margin, but he’s picked up a 5.3% swing on 2354 postals, about as many of which are still to come.
Croydon. Liberal member David Hodgett had a slight swing against him on ordinary and early votes in a seat where he was defending a 1.0% margin, but the first half of around 8000 postal votes have swung 4.4% his way and he will more than likely get home.
Hastings. Paul Mercurio looks likely to gain a seat for Labor that had no margin at all after the redistribution, and which was being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Neale Burgess. Ordinary, postal and early votes have all swung slightly his way, leaving him 470 votes ahead with most of the outstanding vote consisting of around 3000 postals and 2000 absents.
Hawthorn. My projection has John Pesutto’s current lead of 0.7% (480 votes) narrowing to 0.3% at the last, mostly because the Liberals did poorly on absent votes in 2018 (36.5% by my post-redistribution reckoning, compared with 44.7% all told), of which I would expect about 2000. However, his primary vote is up 6.1% on the 3055 postal votes counted, compared with about 3% down on ordinary and early votes, and my projection method doesn’t presume that offers any guide to the 4000 or so outstanding. If it does, he will get home fairly comfortably.
Mornington. The teals could emerge empty-handed after a promising start in Mornington fell foul of a 2635-1553 break in favour of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther on postals, leaving him 177 votes ahead with about 3800 further postals still to come. On the other, the Liberals did poorly in 2022 on absent votes, of which there should be about 2000.
Northcote. The Greens’ lower house performance failed to match expectations set to at least some extent by a media determined to hype any anti-Labor narrative to hand, most notably in their likely failure to win Northcote. The first 1651 postals have broken 1027-624 to Labor, a swing in their favour of 5.7% with about 3500 still to come, but the Greens handily won absents in 2018, of which there should be about 3000.
Pakenham. Labor had a notional 2.2% margin in this essentially new seat, and their candidate Emma Vulin ended Sunday with a lead of eight votes over Liberal rival David Farrelly. Labor lost the first 2121 postals by only 1104-1017, a swing of 4.8% in their favour. The question is likely whether an advantage to Farrelly on 3500 or so remaining postals outweights absents, which on my post-redistribution calculation favoured Labor 1230-828 last time.
Preston. Labor’s 1306 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count will assuredly be enough to see off the Greens. But at Inside Story, Tim Colebatch offers a “scoop”: the final count will in fact be between Labor and independent Gaetano Greco, and it’s not inconceivable he will win. Labor is on 38.1% of the primary vote to Greco’s 14.9%, raising the question of how many voters for sundry left-wing concerns (Greens, Victorian Socialists, Animal Justice and Reason Australia) moved promptly to Labor after their first preference over Greco, a “long-time Darebin councillor and Labor activist”.
Ripon. Liberal member Louise Staley needed a 2.8% swing here post-redistribution, currently has only 0.7%. Labor’s raw lead is 1358, but there are around 8000 early votes outstanding and Staley won the first batch of postals 1814-1272 with about 4500 still to come.
Again I stand by Victoria’s comment. My wife’s parents are Italian migrants, she completed her secondary at Mercy College with other girls of predominantly Italian, Greek, Lebanese backgrounds. The dislike of and blame levelled at Andrews in those communities is very obvious and hard to look past as a clear factor in the results.
Any chance Victorian Socialists get over Legalise Cannivis in Western Metropolitan?
I have to say that something I noticed often in the footage and photos of all the anti-lockdown protests were a lot of European flags, in particular Greek and Croatian.
Croatian I’m not so surprised about because I know a lot of Croatians and as a whole they tend to very much lean to the right politically (far-right elements within the Croatian diaspora are well documented too, unfortunately), but it did certainly strike me that the anti-lockdown movement had a lot of support from within southern & eastern European communities.
JJHall
Yep. Most definitely Italian, Greek and Lebanese.
Being of Italian heritage, and whose grandparents and parents, welcomed vaccines as a godsend over the years, this attitude has been very hard for me to accept and actually forgive.
My relationship with these extended family members is quite broken.
My father is 86 years old and came to Australia as a teenager. Whilst he still loves Italy, he has continually stated throughout the pandemic that we are so fortunate to live in Australia and particularly in Melbourne town.
He is so grateful for the considered support given to the public during the pandemic.
He too is a little heartbroken by the attitude displayed in our extended family and friends.
Maybe a touch disgusted too.
Victoriasays:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 11:50 am
JJHall
“My relationship with these extended family members is quite broken.”
I’m sorry to hear that Victoria, its very distressing and my wife has had a similar experience to yours. Family and friends she once felt very close to have ostracised her over this. It’s a strange phenomenon, but it’s clearly influenced the result in those areas.
J J Hall
For me it has been the hardest part of dealing with the pandemic.
I get that people are confused, fearful and distrusting of anything that happens.
Questioning things is healthy and very important. But to accuse people of being sheep etc is disgraceful.
I can say that if they have any other health issue, they are the first to expect medicos to resolve it for them.
Self indulgent fools. I have no patience and no respect for them.
One observation I would make is that the high level of socialisation in many migrant communities, particularly in the small shopping precincts dotted throughout, in part explains some of this phenomenon. IMO many in these communities reacted to the extended lockdowns more acutely than in other communities because of the need/desire to connect socially in the shopping areas marketplaces, cafes etc.
J J Hall
Yes the need to hang out together socially was important. How else are they going to show people how wonderful they are. Lol!
As you can see, I am beyond excusing their behaviour. Especially when many influenced their elderly parents not to get vaxxed.
Luckily this did not happen in my family circle.
But it did happen a lot. One guy i know of, was so upset because his father had died from covid and his mother was on deaths door.
He felt responsible for forcefully encouraging them not to get vaxxed. My response. Well you dealt it. Own it.
As you can see my compassion and understanding is in short supply around this topic. Lol!
Matt31,
I expect Victorian Socialists in West Metro will gain slightly relative to Legalise Cannabis on below-the-line votes, but not enough to close the gap. Even if they did make up the ground at count 24 (where they are currently excluded), Greens preferences will still give it to Legalise Cannabis eventually.
Edit: Actually, there’s a chance that both LC and VS could fall below the Greens on BTL votes, and LC could be knocked out first of the three, which would deliver the seat to VS. But it’s a very remote possibility.
Grime says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 10:09 am
Mabwm @ #327 Thursday, December 1st, 2022 – 8:11 am
@jeremy Browne,
There is a good reason for above the line voting in the upper house. Below the line votes are often spoiled as the voter loses count, inadvertently.
There are a couple of easy solutions;
1). Allow voters to Number all the boxes or a number of them (I’d say 9, but I haven’t done the maths.
2). Proportional representation either on a statewide ballot, or in districts.
The current system is too readily open for being gamed.
Reform is necessary and urgent. I would never hand my preferences over to a political party. I was an ALP member about a decade ago, when my preferences were used to elect Steven Fielding of Family First. I have not voted above the line since.
Even better.Abolish the upper house.
@@@@@@@@
Absolutely and 100% Grime. Abolishment of Upper Houses is a must, along with the odious Daylight Saving.
@ Snappy Tom on Mary Magdalene – yes I agree an understand the history. Temporary debating point but agree with you.
Another observation Kos Samaras had made about these communities during covid.
He blamed the lack of vaccination hubs in these communities. Cos apparently when more attention was focused in these areas by the Health Department, the vaccine uptake was great.
Ah no. The vaccine uptake became really good because their family and friends started dropping off like flies. Nothing more nothing less.
My wife and I have similar feelings Victoria. In most cases we’ve given up on repairing many of the relationships that have been lost. The ones I understand the least are some extended relatives that were born in Italy, have remained permanent residents and decided not to take citizenship. So not enrolled to vote, no skin in the game. Yet they are equally vitriolic in their hatred of Andrews. Just strange!
J J Hall
Ive decided that if that is the way they think and behave. Perhaps better they are not part of our lives. I dont need selfish and toxic people in my sphere.
Yes. That is precisely what has upset my dad. (Mum felt the same before dementia took over. She doesnt even understand the pandemic these days).
My parents had a phrase for these people.
They came to Australia and reaped the benefits of what the country has offered.
They were ‘morte di fame’ in Italy (dying from starvation) and now they dont even appreciate what they have. Shameful.
Apparently:
William Bowe says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Apparently:
中华人民共和国
Interesting!!!
Good to know William! Will your system continue to update results after the changes are made?
I find yours far easier to read and navigate than the VEC website, and ABC only updates totals so you can’t see changes in vote type or by polling place.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-s-battin-v-pesutto-as-field-narrows-in-liberal-leadership-stakes-20221201-p5c2t9.html
Both Richard Riordan and Ryan Smith have endorsed Brad Battin for leader…
In the northern suburbs of Melbourne, going back some years ago, there were many substantial businesses headed up by members of the Italian community (and the number of Italian Clubs you used to be taken to for lunch – and still frequent)
A very strong presence
Plus some of Greek heritage
Migration has changed over the more recent period, from middle Europe, Asia including India and the Pacific Islands
Who were the tenants in the building locked down because of furniture removalists and which schools were then impacted?
So people were identified by Nationality – and, no doubt, felt community anger
We remain a racist Nation
It will be interesting to see the result of Western Sydney being locked down (and who lives there?) versus the suburbs not locked down
I also seem to recall that vaccination pleas were focused on certain Regions of our Cities because they did not embrace vaccination as did other Regions
Then look where the very large Pentecostal populations are, and where their very large “churches” are
The complexity of the Australian population, hey?
Those Italian Clubs remain superb venues for lunch
EightES
Thanks for that. I thought it was probably a long shot. Personally I’d like to see Victorian Socialists get it as I feel it might diminish LC’s ability to hold the Andrews government to ransom and give the government another potential path to pass legislation. On VS generally, for a party only four years old, they have achieved some very good results in the seats they targeted to boost their upper house chances.
Alpha Zero says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 2:21 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-s-battin-v-pesutto-as-field-narrows-in-liberal-leadership-stakes-20221201-p5c2t9.html
Both Richard Riordan and Ryan Smith have endorsed Brad Battin for leader…
_____________________
Excellent! The way to win voters back, the ones you lost by shifting to the right is ….. to….. move further to the right. We are told prosciutto is a moderate, but we know Battin is not.
(Disrespectful auto correct above – it was too good to change.)
I enjoy the VS too but not for the same reasons. I subject them to a long interrogation about the nature of socialism. I ask why they want me to vote for them when they want to take away my property. Then I start about Josef Stalin and how well that worked out. Then I ask them to give me an example of a socialist state that’s worked. Never get very far.
I also mention George Orwell, who started as a committed socialist but grew more and more disillusioned with it over time. He saw the inherent tyranny in it, no matter how well intentioned. “We are all equal but some of us are more equal than others.”
MABWM says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 3:31 pm
We are told prosciutto is a moderate, but we know Battin is not.
(Disrespectful auto correct above – it was too good to change.)
——————
Though as a few people have pointed out, rumours of Prosciutto’s moderate stance are exaggerated and seem to have originated in the fact that he didn’t throw a hissy fit on the ABC live election night coverage in 2018 on losing his seat. His political history is otherwise not particularly moderate. But if the Libs want to look still further right and elect a cooker adjacent leader….well we’ve seen how well embracing the far right has worked for the Liberals at the last 2 State elections
MABWM: “We are told prosciutto is a moderate …” 😉
Lobster’s off the menu? Well, I’ll have ham, then.
Jeremy Browne: “I subject them to a long interrogation about the nature of socialism.”
You must be fun at parties.
Brad Battin is a cooker and apparently a bit of a prick to deal with too. Probably the ex-copper in him.
Hence why I expect him to triumph in the Liberal leadership contest.
If he does, I expect the Liberal party will struggle with fundraising. The money woes of Victorian branch of the Liberal Party are well known. The donation laws that now exists means that a handful of donors can not bail them out – the limit is $4300 per person per electoral cycle. So they need to get a wider fundraising base which they won’t be able to if they keep heading towards the far right.
The western Sydney lockdown response will be coloured by any residual memory that they were subjected to harsher treatment than parts of the north / east – by the Lib government, I assume the ALP campaign will remind them.
People out that way in blue-collar or service jobs were not in a position to work from home and if home meant being locked into a cramped modest flat, with x kids and maybe grandma falling all over each other, you were going to like it even less.
At the Fed election a number of Freedumb party volunteers and candidates I talked to were convinced they were about to sweep the west and return a bloc of MPs.
I don’t think that quite happened (and I suspect the entrails of booth returns have been studied) -although there is a vein of socially conservative non-English speaking battlers who they can sometimes pitch to.
Over the years, I’ve had a lot to do with the local, very Italian heritage based, soccer club.
Several families have gone full anti-Dan (some of whom I know were pro-Labor) and some full cooker.
I talked a few months ago about a young woman, my son’s age, who died of gangrene. The family took her home from hospital when they were advised that it was a case of her losing her leg or losing her life. They decided that God and her natural immunity would win out over modern medicine.
They’re cookers.
B.S. Fairman @ #377 Thursday, December 1st, 2022 – 4:48 pm
What is it with ex coppers being Liberal opposition leaders.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/28/victorian-election-late-counting/comment-page-7/#comment-4020177
Voting below the line isn`t actually all that complicated*, it is just more time and effort consuming than voting above the line because more boxes have to be numbered to achieve the same result.
Victoria only requires 1-5 below the line for a valid BTL, so it won`t be introducing number all boxes (either above the line or below).
Victoria already allows below the line exhaustion (except where 6 candidates stand in a region, which does not happen), above the line exhaustion is just the same thing done more efficiently. Voter decided exhaustion is a clear voter choice as they can see what they are doing and that they are not preferencing the groups/candidates that they are not preferencing.
The Senate, NSW, and SA systems of above the line preferencing clearly show that voters for micro parties are often voting for a specific minor party and then their preferences have a tendency to flow to major parties` groups, as micro parties have a wide range of ideologies and major issues. When micro parties do agree with enough of each other, they can elect candidates under above the line preferencing as they did in Victoria in 2022 when they (with Coalition help) elected Ralph Babbett.
Group ticket voting is not better than exhaustion as exhaustion is a clear and easily understood voter action while group ticket voting, even as a backup measure is secretive.
*Except when there is so much ballot clutter that there is a double decker ballot paper, as there was in every region in Victoria because of GTV, navigating bellow the line is a bit harder.
Zoomster
What happened to common sense and modern medicine?
I just dont get it.
Northcote MP Kat Theophanous has advised on Facebook the Greens have conceded in Northcote even though it’s still in doubt on the ABC website. I must say the results and updates have been slow. Its been like getting blood out of a stone and it’s been on a slow drip.
You cannot reason with a cooker. End of. No logic.
@Political Nightwatchman
It’s probably from the news from Greens scrutineers that they made the decision to concede. They have first-hand access to the vote count before it’s made official after all.
https://twitter.com/benitakolovos/status/1598226045635031041
Benita Kolovos @benitakolovos
I interrupt the beautiful wedding I’m attending to let you know I’m hearing a heap of old National Union of Workers-aligned Labor MPs are joining the socialist left. Includes treasurer Tim Pallas and minister Steve Dimopoulos.
7:02 PM · Dec 1, 2022
Jeremy Browne wrote,”I enjoy the VS too but not for the same reasons. I subject them to a long interrogation about the nature of socialism. I ask why they want me to vote for them when they want to take away my property. Then I start about Josef Stalin and how well that worked out. Then I ask them to give me an example of a socialist state that’s worked. Never get very far.”
OMFG! They walk amongst us. This explains the whole low information cooker mentality. OMFG! What a nut!
A group of seven MPs from the ALP’s Right faction – including Treasurer Tim Pallas and Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos – has shifted to the Left.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-boosts-internal-grip-on-power-two-ministers-in-firing-line-for-demotion-20221201-p5c305.html
SO, looking more and more like the 2022 election is almost an identical result to 2018 from “Dictator” Dan’s perspective. 55 seats!
The MSM owes us all an apology. We trust them to report news, not lie to us. At a bare minimum we expect them not to barrack.
I’m beginning to think Kevin and Malcolm might be on to something with their Murdoch Royal Commission.
If 2018 was a Danslide, then this is Danslide II, Slide Harder, as one of our brethren quipped before the election.
My personal prediction was very close. I thought Sheed was safe in Shepparton and I was hoping for a couple of seats to fall to the Greens and Indies. The Libs of course, managed to actually go backwards. Well done Lobster Guy – the purest of democratic socialist sleeper agents. You can ‘fess up now Matty; your work here is done.
And as for the cookers – you can f#ck right off. Excusez mon Francais!
AngoraFish @ #387 Thursday, December 1st, 2022 – 8:14 pm
Now that is interesting,a case of getting with the strength.
AngoraFish @ #386 Thursday, December 1st, 2022 – 8:14 pm
Everybody loves a winner.
AWU further weakened. Look out for damaging leaks to media by you know who.
@MABWM, I reckon they’ll end up +1 from 2018 with 56 seats!
Now that Northcote is called by the ABC, Labor are on 52 seats, with these 4 still to go:
– Hastings (large Labor lead)
– Preston (reports are pref flows not strong enough for the IND to win)
– Bass (Labor lead out to 233 votes and absents should favour them too)
– Pakenham (massive turnaround in today’s counting, Lib lead down to 5 votes, postals actually breaking Labor’s way as should absents, almost no early votes left so the remaining count should favour Labor)
That would just be an amazing result snd it’s looking very likely now.
The best part is the Liberal Party will go from 21 seats in 2018 to only 19….
@Trent,
and yet Bolt says Andrews is weakened and the writing is on the wall.
Has the Herald-Sun admitted they backed the wrong horse yet?
Didn’t the Age (Independent Always) tell us the ‘parties’ were neck and neck?
Pretty sure there will be more left handed women in Cabinet than women sitting in the LNP party room. What a debacle.
I repeat, the MSM owe us an apology. And not a Scomo / Eddy McGuire – I apologise if anyone was offended.
Interesting supplementary election coming up down in the Valley.
Do they want someone at the big table, or do they want sloppy seconds?
Given the state result is known in the absolute sense a good ALP or Indie candidate could be interesting.
Will Matthew Guy step aside and give us two by-elections on the same day? Will Josh put his hand up? That would enliven the leadership debate. Go on Josh – be a hero.
Fascinating election, as the now lesser Jeremy liked to say.
I’ll be down there handing out for the Greens! That should be fun.
AngoraFish says:
“A group of seven MPs from the ALP’s Right faction – including Treasurer Tim Pallas and Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos – has shifted to the Left.”
It’s just a jump to the Left! …
Let’s do the Tim warp again!
But it is also a step to the right
MABWMsays:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 8:52 pm
“Fascinating election, as the now lesser Jeremy liked to say.”
Or as Eddie Vedder would say:
Jeremy spoke in class today!
My hunch is Battin becomes leader for now and Pesutto takes over in two/three years. The concern i have with Vic Labor at present is that after Andrews who do they have?
The Libs are much the same but talking to neighbour whom like me is a Leftie they have met Pesutto and he is a lovely person, knows how to get around a room and talk to people and is very much a consenus person. All the Libs he and Bach are the ones whom Labor should worry about.
I do not think Jacinta Allan is leadership material, is Danny Pearson a possible leader down the track? Perhaps Andrews should move him to Treasury role, time for some new blood?
@Crispy Wedges
Out of curiosity, why do you think that Jacinta Allan is not leadership material?
Whilst Jacinta has personality and smarts about her i am just not sure whether she would be seen as having that safe pair of hands look and am unsure whether the tradies and working classes would vote for her.