Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Wednesday night
It is now acknowledged that John Pesutto has won Hawthorn for the Liberals, and Mornington continues to drift away from the only other teal independent in the hunt, Kate Lardner. In the latter case, today’s early votes broke 902-726 to Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, who now leads by 353. In Pakenham, the two-party votes were added for the early voting batch that appeared in the primary votes count only yesterday, and it broke to the Liberals less heavily than I had anticipated — 1135-907, turning a Labor leading of eight votes into a Liberal lead of 220. There’s evidently a complex mix in the race for the final seat in South-Eastern Metropolitan region, because the ABC’s projection now has it going to Legalise Cannabis, overtaking the Liberal Democrats who in turn overtook the second Liberal yesterday.
Tuesday night
I had a paywalled piece in Crikey today noting where the result for Labor in swing terms was particularly good (the same Chinese-heavy eastern suburbs that turned against the Liberals at the federal election) and particularly poor (the party’s northern and western Melbourne heartlands, which likewise were relatively soft for the party at the federal election). I also joined Ben Raue of The Tally Room to discuss the results on his podcast.
Turning to the count: it was a better day for the Liberals in Bass, where Aaron Brown went from 225 behind to 53 ahead after early votes broke 835-663 his way, and Mornington, where Chris Crewther’s lead went from 177 to 337 on a 747-588 break in early votes. The Liberals also got a strong batch of early votes in Pakenham, and while they are yet to be added to the two-party count, the primary vote results have boosted my Liberal two-party projection there from 50.0% to 50.8% and left my system not far off calling it for them. My system also no longer rates Benambra as in doubt.
Labor’s one good show was in Hastings, where the latest early votes batch broke 747-660 to Paul Mercurio, boosting his lead from 470 to 557. The fresh two-candidate preferred counts in Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee yesterday caused by projections in those seats to go haywire yesterday, but this is fixed now.
While I still haven’t taken a serious look at the upper house count, I note that the ABC’s projection now has Adem Somyurek taking the last seat in Northern Metropolitan for the DLP ahead of Fiona Patten of Reason, though I have a notion that Somyurek may do less than brilliantly on below-the line votes. David Limbrick of the Liberal Democrats also has his nose in front of the second Liberal now in South-Eastern Metropolitan.
Monday night
There was no significant progress today, which was spent mostly on rechecking. That will continue today, but more interesting will be the addition of as-yet-uncounted early votes that were cast outside the home district. As noted below, new indicative two-candidate preferred counts are being conducted in five seats where the wrong two candidates were picked for the count on election nights, but in no case is the result in doubt. Happily, the Victorian Electoral Commission has a page on its website where such news is related in detail on a daily basis.
Sunday night
I spent yesterday fixing bugs in my results system, and now this is done to a reasonably satisfactory level, it should resume updating promptly, at least when I have an internet connection. Most of today’s activity will involve rechecking, but fresh two-candidate counts will be conducted in seats where the initial counts picked the wrong candidates – Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee – although in no case is the result in doubt.
My system is giving away 45 seats to Labor and has them ahead in a further 11, which would result in the extraordinary achivement of an increased majority if it stuck. Seats my system is not yet calling but almost certainly soon will are Bayswater, Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Glen Waverley and Yan Yean, which get Labor to 50; Caulfield, Polwarth and Rowville, which get the Liberals to 12; and Mildura and Shepparton, which get the Nationals to not far behind the Liberals on nine. I still have nothing to offer on the upper house result, but that will hopefully change over the next day or two.
Bass. Labor’s Jordan Crugnale needed an 0.8% swing to retain her seat after the redistribution, and after looking gone on election night, a 5.0% swing in her favour on early votes puts it at 1.4%. However, the early vote count of 15427 formal votes is nearly 6000 shy of the number cast, which presumably means one of the three centres hasn’t reported yet. If the outstanding centre is more conservative than the other two, the swing on early votes — which is not broken down between individual voting centres, as would be the case at a federal election — will drop considerably when it reports, perhaps taking Crugnale’s lead with it.
Benambra. The ABC has Liberal member Bill Tilley marked down as holding off two-time independent challenger Jacqui Hawkins, but my more conservative system only gets his probability to 85.9%. He leads by 1.1% on the raw two-candidate preferred count, which is all you’ll get from the ABC — I’m still using a method that presumes to project a final result, which narrows it to 0.8%. Booth and early votes came in about where Hawkins needed to knock off his 2.6% margin, but he’s picked up a 5.3% swing on 2354 postals, about as many of which are still to come.
Croydon. Liberal member David Hodgett had a slight swing against him on ordinary and early votes in a seat where he was defending a 1.0% margin, but the first half of around 8000 postal votes have swung 4.4% his way and he will more than likely get home.
Hastings. Paul Mercurio looks likely to gain a seat for Labor that had no margin at all after the redistribution, and which was being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Neale Burgess. Ordinary, postal and early votes have all swung slightly his way, leaving him 470 votes ahead with most of the outstanding vote consisting of around 3000 postals and 2000 absents.
Hawthorn. My projection has John Pesutto’s current lead of 0.7% (480 votes) narrowing to 0.3% at the last, mostly because the Liberals did poorly on absent votes in 2018 (36.5% by my post-redistribution reckoning, compared with 44.7% all told), of which I would expect about 2000. However, his primary vote is up 6.1% on the 3055 postal votes counted, compared with about 3% down on ordinary and early votes, and my projection method doesn’t presume that offers any guide to the 4000 or so outstanding. If it does, he will get home fairly comfortably.
Mornington. The teals could emerge empty-handed after a promising start in Mornington fell foul of a 2635-1553 break in favour of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther on postals, leaving him 177 votes ahead with about 3800 further postals still to come. On the other, the Liberals did poorly in 2022 on absent votes, of which there should be about 2000.
Northcote. The Greens’ lower house performance failed to match expectations set to at least some extent by a media determined to hype any anti-Labor narrative to hand, most notably in their likely failure to win Northcote. The first 1651 postals have broken 1027-624 to Labor, a swing in their favour of 5.7% with about 3500 still to come, but the Greens handily won absents in 2018, of which there should be about 3000.
Pakenham. Labor had a notional 2.2% margin in this essentially new seat, and their candidate Emma Vulin ended Sunday with a lead of eight votes over Liberal rival David Farrelly. Labor lost the first 2121 postals by only 1104-1017, a swing of 4.8% in their favour. The question is likely whether an advantage to Farrelly on 3500 or so remaining postals outweights absents, which on my post-redistribution calculation favoured Labor 1230-828 last time.
Preston. Labor’s 1306 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count will assuredly be enough to see off the Greens. But at Inside Story, Tim Colebatch offers a “scoop”: the final count will in fact be between Labor and independent Gaetano Greco, and it’s not inconceivable he will win. Labor is on 38.1% of the primary vote to Greco’s 14.9%, raising the question of how many voters for sundry left-wing concerns (Greens, Victorian Socialists, Animal Justice and Reason Australia) moved promptly to Labor after their first preference over Greco, a “long-time Darebin councillor and Labor activist”.
Ripon. Liberal member Louise Staley needed a 2.8% swing here post-redistribution, currently has only 0.7%. Labor’s raw lead is 1358, but there are around 8000 early votes outstanding and Staley won the first batch of postals 1814-1272 with about 4500 still to come.
Crispy, I don’t think you have too much to worry about. Dan has 55 to choose from.
I’ve known Jacinta since before she was first elected. She’s got it, mate.
I’m pretty sure Victoria in 2026 will be able to elect a woman, assuming Dan moves on, which I’m not sure he will. He is a young man in political terms – 30 years younger than the US President.
You’re a “leftie”, huh? I presume you vote labour. My old mate Jeremy made the same claim.
I see, well I don’t really agree with those reasons why she shouldn’t be considered as leader.
For a start, she was first elected in 1999 as MP for Bendigo East, winning it from the Liberals – a marginal regional seat that she has since made a safe seat for Labor. And also has held it for 23 years, so she has plenty of experience.
Furthermore, the fact that she has held a regional seat for so long means that she’s not the same as the “latte-sipping toffs” of inner-city Melbourne, in fact she would more likely be in tune with regional Victorians and their sufferings, which mostly align with the politics of tradies and working classes.
So to me, she seems like a good successor if Dan Andrews chooses to retire this term and Labor chooses to give her the reins.
MABWM: “I’m pretty sure Victoria in 2026 will be able to elect a woman …”
Absolutely!
Queensland has elected governments led by two different women (one of them three times in a row) … so it shouldn’t be a huge stretch for (checks notes) ‘Australia’s most progressive state’.
Been a lefty all my life and will not change. Yes 55 to choose from, but it takes a special quality to win over people and Labor has struggled to do that up to Bracks and Andrews… i just hope they can get another good leader.. Pesutto is going to be hard to beat in my view.
Coalition currently lead in 29 – or 30 if you go by William’s late update last message for Bass (Results page shows a miniscule lead for Labour still so I’m not sure who’s currently leading).
Whereas the table at the top of the results page shows them leading in 28 (19 Lib, 9 Nat), so some bit of the ‘system’ isn’t talking to another bit.
Now I’ve looked a bit closer I think William made an error in his comment: Aaron Brown (Lib) is actually still 53 votes BEHIND not AHEAD in Bass.
Though if late counting continues to favour him, he may well win anyway.
Pesutto won’t be leader!
The reactionary twits that make up the current parliamentary Liberal Party watch Sky News. They want to go further right! They won’t elect a latte sipping inner city lefty progressive – as they see him.
Tina McQueen rejoiced after the 22 federal election, ‘cos they got rid of all those lefties, remember?
The LNP have not yet begun the necessary clean out before they can be electable.
Goodnight, all you woke luvvies!
The assumption in the party was that, when Brumby lost, the contest for the leadership would be between Tim Holding and Jacinta.
Neither put their hand up (I think both assumed Labor was in the wilderness for at least eight years).
So yes, she’s the most likely successor.
I think Jacinta Allen has what it takes and may allow the government to make a cleanish break with some aspects of Andrews’ governing style that, rightly or wrongly, are starting to wear on people.
She doesn’t have a strong public profile at the moment but neither did Andrews before the 2014 election. When he became opposition leader in 2010 I assumed he’d be a seat warmer.
@BTSays: That update is a little bit behind because there were large batches counted in both Bass and Pakenham yesterday morning which both favoured Labor.
In Bass, Crugdale’s lead went from 53 to 233 so she’s in a better position now and later votes seems to be favouring her, while absents (always left-leaning) also haven’t been counted yet.
Similarly in Pakenham, 2005 more votes were counted yesterday which reduced the Liberal lead from 220 to only 5 votes. The batch of around 400 early votes (previously favouring Lib 52-48) broke 57-34 to Labor and the batch of around 1600 postal votes broke 54-46 to Labor. There are almost no early votes left, so most of the remaining count will be postals (breaking 51-49 to Labor overall) and absents.
I think Labor will win both now – a few days ago it wasn’t looking likely because it was expected that the postals & early votes would favour the Liberals but it’s actually gone the other way.
If that happens then the seat count will end up 56 ALP, 4 GRN, 19 LIB and 9 NAT assuming the Libs win the deferred Narracan election (but the summary at the top will only show 18 LIB because Narracan isn’t counted).
Andrews is currently Victoria’s sixth longest serving premier. In about two and a half years, if he’s still in the job, he will have moved to number two behind only Henry Bolte. If he can win another two elections, he’ll have a shot at the number one spot.
I don’t know if that might enter his thinking as he decides how long to stay on.
MABWM says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 8:17 pm
SO, looking more and more like the 2022 election is almost an identical result to 2018 from “Dictator” Dan’s perspective. 55 seats!
The MSM owes us all an apology. We trust them to report news, not lie to us. At a bare minimum we expect them not to barrack.
I’m beginning to think Kevin and Malcolm might be on to something with their Murdoch Royal Commission.
If 2018 was a Danslide, then this is Danslide II, Slide Harder, as one of our brethren quipped before the election.
My personal prediction was very close. I thought Sheed was safe in Shepparton and I was hoping for a couple of seats to fall to the Greens and Indies. The Libs of course, managed to actually go backwards. Well done Lobster Guy – the purest of democratic socialist sleeper agents. You can ‘fess up now Matty; your work here is done.
And as for the cookers – you can f#ck right off. Excusez mon Francais!
____________
Let us not hold our breath waiting for an apology.
Rather, let’s assume these organisations are simply pro-Coalition propaganda units – and hope the ALP leadership (federal, states and territories) continues to make a similar assumption.
I think a Murdoch Royal Commission would give the propaganda units (not just the Murdoch ones) the sort of war they’d like to fight.
I’d like to see the Productivity Commission investigate “productivity and competition in the media sector”. If the Productivity Commission is truly capitalist, it will recommend increasing the number of organisations in the media sector – probably involving the break-up of current large organisations.
No hint of revenge, just ensuring Australian consumers get the most competitive and economically efficient range of choices…
crispy wedges says:
Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 10:46 pm
Whilst Jacinta has personality and smarts about her i am just not sure whether she would be seen as having that safe pair of hands look and am unsure whether the tradies and working classes would vote for her.
—————————–
Jacinta would have no problems with the tradie vote since they know her through Victoria’s big build and she has turned a Liberal marginal into a safe ALP seat.
@snappy tom – that’s cherry picking to make your point.
Last election Labor won 55+18 seats from 57.6%, this time they’re on track to win 54 or 55 + 15 seats from 54.2%.
It’s a good result for Labor, no doubt, but there’s no way you can dress up a 3.4% lower house swing against you, the loss of 3 upper house seats and quite possibly a lower house seat as “Danslide II, Slide Harder”.
Why do people have to take a decent point, and then just take it to silly extremes. It just undermines the actual point you could be making.
According to the VEC website, absent vote counting should commence from around 12pm today.
That should provide a clearer picture of Bass & Pakenham, and possibly get Hastings & Mornington over the line to be called.
Voice Endeavour,
I agree. Too many people are blinded by the majority in terms of seats and ignore the warnings in terms of votes.
Fifty four percent 2PP isn’t a landslide. Thirty seven percent primary certainly isn’t a landslide. It just looks like a landslide because we have an electoral system that means the number of votes you get isn’t as important as where you get ’em.
It’s really not a time to get too cocky when you can’t even convince two out of every 5 voters to give you their first preference.
EightES: “Fifty four percent 2PP isn’t a landslide”
55 seats to 28 seats is a landslide.
Thanks, Pi.
I think I’m losing the will to live.
Agree with EightES that it’s not as much of a landslide as 2018, Labor just targeted their campaign very well and the Liberals didn’t.
I think what can’t be overlooked though is that despite the swing against them, Labor have quite possibly strengthened the electoral map even more for 2026 compared to 2022, and the Liberals have no doubt gone backwards.
Those swings occurring in the safe Labor seats not only didn’t flip any this time, but it also didn’t particularly make them any more winnable next time. For example seats like Broadmeadows, Thomastown and Kororoit going from 25% margins to 15% margins, or even St Albans, Sydenham and Mill Park going from around 20% to around 10%, still don’t put them under any real threat in 4 years time especially when lockdown anger won’t be a factor. That said, Labor do need to demonstrate in this term that they aren’t taking those areas for granted, to stop them swinging more.
The seats that were apparently winnable this time – Cranbourne, Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, Narre Warren South, Narre Warren North – barely swung at all, so the challenge for the Liberals there in 2026 will basically be identical to this year as no progress was made. And with the exception of Mordialloc (still on more than a 7% margin), the same applies to the sandbelt corridor too.
That isn’t to say they can’t be competitive in 2026, just that the Liberals just didn’t succeed in making inroads this time, so on paper they’re basically the same as 2022.
Then on the other side of the coin, seats like Box Hill, Ashwood and Ringwood which were all on margins under 4% are now on margins over 6%. While the marginal seats such as Glen Waverley, Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon, Bayswater, Bass & Pakenham remain marginal but Labor are likely to have the advantage of incumbency in all except Caulfield.
So it’s likely that we’ll go into the 2026 election again with Labor needing a net loss of 12 seats to be reduced to a minority, again with the Coalition requiring a gain of 17 seats (only 1 less than this year) for a majority, with really no extra seats on winnable margins than in 2022 but a bit more work required to win back the east.
So as much as Labor’s strong seat count, likely to be +1 compared to 2018, disguises a significant swing against them; the swing against them actually also disguises the Coalition’s lack of progress and the possible strengthening of the electoral map for Labor.
It would appear that there is a major Jeremy problem on this thread.
Is the Jeremy Browne the same Jeremy who told us all, last week, that the ALP vote would totally collapse, and that Melbourne would be enveloped by a Green Wave?
I won’t comment on his gutter trolling and remarks regarding Sex Workers – they are beyound the pall!
ALP strategist will see 55 seats as a nice buffer but they would be nervous about the 3%+ swing against.
Jeremy probably working triple overtime to make up the shortfall of all the betting losses
Macca, I think there might be multiple Jeremies.
A myriad of Jeremies.
A veritable Jeremiad!
Oliver Sutton @ #423 Friday, December 2nd, 2022 – 11:41 am
A Jerrymander.(sic)
In the post-pandemic environment, I would think that ALP strategists would be happy with the election result and an overall loss of 3%.
The result puts them in a strong position for the 2026 election, where much of that lost vote will probably return.
Four more years of capable and competent governance should see a stronger result in 2026.
I agree Macca.
If almost the entirety of that 3-4% 2PP swing against occurred in seats where the margins just reduced from 20-25% to 10-15%, then it’s a swing against that doesn’t weaken them – or progress the Liberals at all – for the next election, as it not only didn’t translate into a loss of seats this time but it also doesn’t translate into any more marginal seats for next time.
Macca RB says:
Friday, December 2, 2022 at 11:13 am
….I won’t comment on his gutter trolling and remarks regarding Sex Workers – they are beyound the pall!
******
Pedant alert!!!
It’s ‘Beyond the Pale’ as in the English Pale which was the part of Ireland directly under the control of the English or the Pale of Settlement, which was the parts of the Russian Empire, including Poland and Ukraine, in which Jews were legally allowed to reside.
Added: But I agree with your sentiment
Macca RB says:
Friday, December 2, 2022 at 11:49 am
In the post-pandemic environment, I would think that ALP strategists would be happy with the election result and an overall loss of 3%.
The result puts them in a strong position for the 2026 election, where much of that lost vote will probably return.
Four more years of capable and competent governance should see a stronger result in 2026.
————————————
Some of the western and northern suburban seats might swing back to the ALP but if Andrews is the leader than the odds are that the next election will see a further TPP swing against the ALP and i’m basing that on how Victoria has behaved over the past 50 years.
I think the general swing against that a 12 year old government suffers, and a bit of a correction back to Labor in the outer north-western suburbs, might almost cancel each other out.
I still expect a further 1-2% swing against Labor in overall terms, after balancing out a swing back to Labor in its heartland with a general 3-4% swing against a 12 year old government elsewhere.
But my earlier point about Labor strengthening the electoral map is that a 1-2% swing off a 54% 2PP on the new electoral map will have roughly the same effect as a 1-2% swing off the 57% 2PP on the previous electoral map, due to Labor not only increasing their seat count (assuming they win Bass & Pakenham) but also due to there actually being no additional marginal seats (vs LIB anyway) on the map.
After 2018 (pre-redistribution) they had 55 seats with the following under 5% (vs LIB) – Ringwood, Burwood, Box Hill, Hawthorn, Bayswater, Bass, Nepean, Melton – 8 in total.
(Post-redistribution that became 58 seats with 11 marginals vs LIB/NA) – Ringwood, Ashwood, Box Hill, Hawthorn, Caulfield, Ripon, Nepean, Hastings, Melton, Morwell, Pakenham – so the same net result of 47 seats the Liberals are not within 5% of winning.
After 2022 they are likely to have 56 seats with the following under 5% (vs LIB) – Hastings, Bayswater, Glen Waverley, Bass, Pakenham, Ripon, Melton – 7 in total, so it’s actually a safer situation for them.
Obviously they have a few extra marginals vs Greens now, but I think it’s unlikely the Liberals will preference them next time.
Ben Raue has done a provisional outline of the swing the Liberals would need to get a majority in 2026. The swing required preelection (by the inexact method of looking at the pendulum) was ~11% , which would translate into a notional Liberal 2PP of almost 54%. Post election the swing required based on the pendulum is ~ 8% – which would also translate into a 54% Liberal 2PP.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/50503
After decades of being disadvantaged by the inefficient distribution of its vote in Victoria the ALP is now just about at optimal efficiency- the only downside being that in the event of a LNP landslide somewhere down the track, they’d be at risk of losing a stack of seats on small margins. But in my view the ALP definitely has the better deal in that risk/reward trade off
The only time in the past 40 years plus the Liberals have achieved 54% of the 2PP at a Victorian State election was in 1992. In 1996 they got to 53.5%. The 1996 election has some similarities to 2022: Kennett had a swing against him of around 3%, and achieved a 2PP that’s in the same ballpark that Andrews will end up with. But it barely dented the coalition majority. The coalition still won Lower House 58 seats and had swings to them in parts of Melbourne. The ALP only won back a couple of seats.
Oh it was a sustained landslide and the Libs are somehow even further from government than they were last time. That’s not to say things could change dramatically but given the 2018 map or the 2022 map the Libs would take 2018. Ie. It was an even worse result.
Has anyone done a first past the post analysis?
EightES says:
Friday, December 2, 2022 at 10:04 am
Voice Endeavour,
I agree. Too many people are blinded by the majority in terms of seats and ignore the warnings in terms of votes.
Fifty four percent 2PP isn’t a landslide. Thirty seven percent primary certainly isn’t a landslide. It just looks like a landslide because we have an electoral system that means the number of votes you get isn’t as important as where you get ’em.
It’s really not a time to get too cocky when you can’t even convince two out of every 5 voters to give you their first preference.
____________
To quote John McEnroe: “You cannot be serious!”
54% 2PP is most definitely a landslide. No party has achieved that mark federally since 1975.
Labor received 57.3% 2PP in 2018 – beyond a landslide: a near wipeout for the Coalition.
Primary vote is somewhat meaningful in terms of upper house indications, but not lower house seats.
I intend no cockiness, I’d just like to see this election called for what it is: an extraordinary achievement by Labor (ALP may wind up with 56 seats! See Trent’s comments.) And an utter defeat for the Coalition.
I do not expect such a call from the mainstream media, nor any reappraisal or apology on their part, but they (not just Murdoch) actively campaigned for Guy (or against Dan, take your pick) and lost. Lost!
Looks like now the election is over IBAC is starting to clear the decks,at last.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-02/seven-people-including-former-vline-ceo-charged-ibac-probe/101727396
Covid 19 news this week.
Is it people who in the main still have not been immunised or fully immunised that are dying?
Victoria
Victoria has reported 26,971 new cases in seven days, up from 22,281 last week.
Unlike other states, Victoria records its hospitalisations and intensive-care admissions with a seven-day rolling daily average.
The state averaged 550 daily hospitalisations and 21 daily intensive care admissions.
There was also 54 deaths reported in the past seven days, down from 68 last week.
An update of sorts at last.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az
Looks like the last batch of 483 votes in Pakenham broke +25 to Liberal extending their lead to 30 votes but it’s not yet updated on the VEC website so hard to tell what sort of votes they were.
That’s 52.5-47.5 to Liberal which is exactly what early votes have been breaking and there were about 700 early votes still left, so it’s highly likely they were them, which still puts Labor in a good position if postals (breaking to Labor) and absents are still to come.
Grime: Looks like now the election is over IBAC is starting to clear the decks,at last.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-02/seven-people-including-former-vline-ceo-charged-ibac-probe/101727396
That vline ceo one is just gobsmacking in its audacity. I don’t know how anyone could think they could get away with something so blatant.
ABC has called Hastings for Labor. In Pakenham votes are tied. Not sure if these are latest figures.
Antony Green has called Hastings
Labor’s Paul Mercurio has won Hastings. He has 51% after preferences with 83% of the vote counted. #vicvotes #springst
Pakenham is tight – both William and ABC have in 18,267 apiece on 2PP. VEC has Liberal up 5.
Postals close today
sprocket_ says:
Friday, December 2, 2022 at 4:34 pm
Pakenham is tight – both William and ABC have in 18,267 apiece on 2PP. VEC has Liberal up 5.
Postals close today
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Thanks Sprocket. Not 10 days for Postals? Labor at least keeping the same number of seats by the looks. Good result.
Someone was asking yesterday about Victorian Socialists in West metro.
The Greens have pulled ahead of both Victorian Socialists and Legalise Cannabis at count 24. This is the first pre-condition for VS pinching it, and something I thought might happen on BTL votes but didn’t take that long (as things stand).
The second pre-condition is for VS to get ahead of LC. The current gap is 1324 votes, and I’m expecting VS to gain on BTLs.
What had seemed a remote possibility now seems a little less remote.
P.S. Although I try to sound as though I know what I’m talking about, it’s entirely possible I’ve misread the situation completely. If so, someone please tell me.
Another ABC update in the last 10 mins,things are hotting up.Will that be just about it for the weekend now?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az
What’s happening in Benambra because the ABC has Tilly only 167 ahead.
Antony calls Mornington for the Libs.
Labor now 148 ahead in Bass
Pakenham might end up in the courts. There is always questions around a handful of informal votes; out of 40,000 people there are going to be some really hard to read hand writing.
But sometimes the losing party is not interested as they can see which way the wind is blowing. In 1999, Geelong was won by the ALP by only 16 votes and could easily have been challenged by the Liberals. But they elected not to as it would have meant the state would have been in limbo for more months and it was likely the voters would not have liked that.
As was it wasn’t until after the Frankston East supplementary election in October, a month after the election, that Bracks was able to take over.
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:23 pm
Pakenham might end up in the courts. There is always questions around a handful of informal votes; out of 40,000 people there are going to be some really hard to read hand writing.
But sometimes the losing party is not interested as they can see which way the wind is blowing. In 1999, Geelong was won by the ALP by only 16 votes and could easily have been challenged by the Liberals. But they elected not to as it would have meant the state would have been in limbo for more months and it was likely the voters would not have liked that.
As was it wasn’t until after the Frankston East supplementary election in October, a month after the election, that Bracks was able to take over.
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Labor won Mundingburra by 16 votes in the 1995 QLD State Election. That gave Goss a majority of 1.
The Tories took it to the Court of Disputed Returns which ordered a new election. The rest as they say is history. Paul Keating called the 1996 Federal Election a week before the Mundingburra by-election. Labors vote went south and it lost the seat.
Independent Liz Cunningham supported a minority Tory Government that lasted one term.
Absents have barely been counted in Pakenham + Bass. The late postal + prepolls have only been a draw at best for the Liberals which is not where they want to be before the bulk of the absents get counted. I think Labor’s very likely to hit 56 seats.
The Mundingburra By-election is the classic example of where the voters were given a second chance to ditch a government at a time and the Independent had nothing to lose it appealing. Cummingham benefitted largely from federal government becoming extremely unpopular in Queensland.
The case in Geelong in 1999 would need the Liberals to fight an extra election after they had lost the unlosable election and they were not in any shape to fight an election at time (They probably weren’t even in shape to fight a court case either). They lost Kennett’s own seat after he resigned and the Nationals even lost Benalla too.
For whatever reason, the ABC’s numbers appear to be more up to date than the VEC’s.
Both Bass and Pakenham are desperately close, but there are thousands of votes still to be counted – in Bass, only 76% have been counted, and Pakenham is at 81.5%.
At this stage of the game, its simply a random event that votes are tied in Pakenham. No meaningful predictions can be made right now about either seat, but I have a hunch Labor may scrape over the line in both contests off the back of absent votes.
We may well know more later tonight, if the VEC gives us another update.