Click here for full Victorian election results updated live.
Wednesday night
It is now acknowledged that John Pesutto has won Hawthorn for the Liberals, and Mornington continues to drift away from the only other teal independent in the hunt, Kate Lardner. In the latter case, today’s early votes broke 902-726 to Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, who now leads by 353. In Pakenham, the two-party votes were added for the early voting batch that appeared in the primary votes count only yesterday, and it broke to the Liberals less heavily than I had anticipated — 1135-907, turning a Labor leading of eight votes into a Liberal lead of 220. There’s evidently a complex mix in the race for the final seat in South-Eastern Metropolitan region, because the ABC’s projection now has it going to Legalise Cannabis, overtaking the Liberal Democrats who in turn overtook the second Liberal yesterday.
Tuesday night
I had a paywalled piece in Crikey today noting where the result for Labor in swing terms was particularly good (the same Chinese-heavy eastern suburbs that turned against the Liberals at the federal election) and particularly poor (the party’s northern and western Melbourne heartlands, which likewise were relatively soft for the party at the federal election). I also joined Ben Raue of The Tally Room to discuss the results on his podcast.
Turning to the count: it was a better day for the Liberals in Bass, where Aaron Brown went from 225 behind to 53 ahead after early votes broke 835-663 his way, and Mornington, where Chris Crewther’s lead went from 177 to 337 on a 747-588 break in early votes. The Liberals also got a strong batch of early votes in Pakenham, and while they are yet to be added to the two-party count, the primary vote results have boosted my Liberal two-party projection there from 50.0% to 50.8% and left my system not far off calling it for them. My system also no longer rates Benambra as in doubt.
Labor’s one good show was in Hastings, where the latest early votes batch broke 747-660 to Paul Mercurio, boosting his lead from 470 to 557. The fresh two-candidate preferred counts in Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee yesterday caused by projections in those seats to go haywire yesterday, but this is fixed now.
While I still haven’t taken a serious look at the upper house count, I note that the ABC’s projection now has Adem Somyurek taking the last seat in Northern Metropolitan for the DLP ahead of Fiona Patten of Reason, though I have a notion that Somyurek may do less than brilliantly on below-the line votes. David Limbrick of the Liberal Democrats also has his nose in front of the second Liberal now in South-Eastern Metropolitan.
Monday night
There was no significant progress today, which was spent mostly on rechecking. That will continue today, but more interesting will be the addition of as-yet-uncounted early votes that were cast outside the home district. As noted below, new indicative two-candidate preferred counts are being conducted in five seats where the wrong two candidates were picked for the count on election nights, but in no case is the result in doubt. Happily, the Victorian Electoral Commission has a page on its website where such news is related in detail on a daily basis.
Sunday night
I spent yesterday fixing bugs in my results system, and now this is done to a reasonably satisfactory level, it should resume updating promptly, at least when I have an internet connection. Most of today’s activity will involve rechecking, but fresh two-candidate counts will be conducted in seats where the initial counts picked the wrong candidates – Albert Park, Brighton, Melton, Point Cook, and Werribee – although in no case is the result in doubt.
My system is giving away 45 seats to Labor and has them ahead in a further 11, which would result in the extraordinary achivement of an increased majority if it stuck. Seats my system is not yet calling but almost certainly soon will are Bayswater, Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Glen Waverley and Yan Yean, which get Labor to 50; Caulfield, Polwarth and Rowville, which get the Liberals to 12; and Mildura and Shepparton, which get the Nationals to not far behind the Liberals on nine. I still have nothing to offer on the upper house result, but that will hopefully change over the next day or two.
Bass. Labor’s Jordan Crugnale needed an 0.8% swing to retain her seat after the redistribution, and after looking gone on election night, a 5.0% swing in her favour on early votes puts it at 1.4%. However, the early vote count of 15427 formal votes is nearly 6000 shy of the number cast, which presumably means one of the three centres hasn’t reported yet. If the outstanding centre is more conservative than the other two, the swing on early votes — which is not broken down between individual voting centres, as would be the case at a federal election — will drop considerably when it reports, perhaps taking Crugnale’s lead with it.
Benambra. The ABC has Liberal member Bill Tilley marked down as holding off two-time independent challenger Jacqui Hawkins, but my more conservative system only gets his probability to 85.9%. He leads by 1.1% on the raw two-candidate preferred count, which is all you’ll get from the ABC — I’m still using a method that presumes to project a final result, which narrows it to 0.8%. Booth and early votes came in about where Hawkins needed to knock off his 2.6% margin, but he’s picked up a 5.3% swing on 2354 postals, about as many of which are still to come.
Croydon. Liberal member David Hodgett had a slight swing against him on ordinary and early votes in a seat where he was defending a 1.0% margin, but the first half of around 8000 postal votes have swung 4.4% his way and he will more than likely get home.
Hastings. Paul Mercurio looks likely to gain a seat for Labor that had no margin at all after the redistribution, and which was being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Neale Burgess. Ordinary, postal and early votes have all swung slightly his way, leaving him 470 votes ahead with most of the outstanding vote consisting of around 3000 postals and 2000 absents.
Hawthorn. My projection has John Pesutto’s current lead of 0.7% (480 votes) narrowing to 0.3% at the last, mostly because the Liberals did poorly on absent votes in 2018 (36.5% by my post-redistribution reckoning, compared with 44.7% all told), of which I would expect about 2000. However, his primary vote is up 6.1% on the 3055 postal votes counted, compared with about 3% down on ordinary and early votes, and my projection method doesn’t presume that offers any guide to the 4000 or so outstanding. If it does, he will get home fairly comfortably.
Mornington. The teals could emerge empty-handed after a promising start in Mornington fell foul of a 2635-1553 break in favour of Liberal candidate Chris Crewther on postals, leaving him 177 votes ahead with about 3800 further postals still to come. On the other, the Liberals did poorly in 2022 on absent votes, of which there should be about 2000.
Northcote. The Greens’ lower house performance failed to match expectations set to at least some extent by a media determined to hype any anti-Labor narrative to hand, most notably in their likely failure to win Northcote. The first 1651 postals have broken 1027-624 to Labor, a swing in their favour of 5.7% with about 3500 still to come, but the Greens handily won absents in 2018, of which there should be about 3000.
Pakenham. Labor had a notional 2.2% margin in this essentially new seat, and their candidate Emma Vulin ended Sunday with a lead of eight votes over Liberal rival David Farrelly. Labor lost the first 2121 postals by only 1104-1017, a swing of 4.8% in their favour. The question is likely whether an advantage to Farrelly on 3500 or so remaining postals outweights absents, which on my post-redistribution calculation favoured Labor 1230-828 last time.
Preston. Labor’s 1306 vote lead on the two-candidate preferred count will assuredly be enough to see off the Greens. But at Inside Story, Tim Colebatch offers a “scoop”: the final count will in fact be between Labor and independent Gaetano Greco, and it’s not inconceivable he will win. Labor is on 38.1% of the primary vote to Greco’s 14.9%, raising the question of how many voters for sundry left-wing concerns (Greens, Victorian Socialists, Animal Justice and Reason Australia) moved promptly to Labor after their first preference over Greco, a “long-time Darebin councillor and Labor activist”.
Ripon. Liberal member Louise Staley needed a 2.8% swing here post-redistribution, currently has only 0.7%. Labor’s raw lead is 1358, but there are around 8000 early votes outstanding and Staley won the first batch of postals 1814-1272 with about 4500 still to come.
The heck William.. it’s Jordan Crugnale and it’s a she! (Bass)
Came to say the same thing 😉
To be fair, Jordan is usually a man’s name.
Hawkins conceded in Benambra.
(Of course, if she does scrape over the line, that’s meaningless, but it’s an indication of what’s being seen on the ground…)
Expat @ #NaN Monday, November 28th, 2022 – 6:27 am
To be fair though to William though, he stuffed it completely and changed her first name to Jason before calling her him 😉
After blowing smoke up the Liberal posterior for months, 9Fax has a come to Jesus moment….
Old, elite, out of touch, poorly organised, unpopular and devoid of fresh ideas. The criticisms of the Liberal Party after its election loss have just begun, and the harshest come from within the party itself.
………..
Liberal MPs, speaking on the condition of anonymity, laid bare the organisational and political malaise which, by the end of the next parliament, will culminate in the Coalition parties spending 23 of 27 years on the opposition benches.
“We insult people’s intelligence,” said one. “We think we know what the experiences of others are, not having spoken to them, not having lived among them and engaged with them. From the lofty heights of 257 Collins Street, we know what it is like to live in Sydenham and Tarneit and Werribee.
“For all its shortcomings, Labor has just won its third election with a resounding majority. Something has got to change. We can’t leave it to a remote garrison of the party to choose a candidate who is going to sully the brand. That stuff has to stop.”
Said another: “It was a campaign targeting Liberal Party supporters who don’t like Daniel Andrews rather than swinging voters who need to be convinced to vote for us.”
Offered a third: “You have got a very professional outfit in the Labor Party which consistently get their calls and polling right versus a party which consistently manages to put into positions of power people who have no understanding of what they are doing.”
Another MP said: “Our brand is so damaged at a federal and state level. We cannot win an election unless we do a full Tony Blair New Labour rebrand.”
By Chip Le Grand and Paul Sakkal
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/we-insult-people-s-intelligence-the-liberal-party-recriminations-begin-20221127-p5c1mg.html
sprocket_ @ #5 Monday, November 28th, 2022 – 6:42 am
Homer Eugene Le Grand,yes well the less said the better.
The Age editorial is no kinder:
“The electorate’s repudiation of the Liberal Party, the anti-Dan protest movement and the Murdoch media could not have been more thorough. After a disastrous federal result for the party of Menzies, it must now surely undergo an existential crisis. Almost 6 per cent of previous Labor voters at Saturday’s election were searching for somewhere other than Labor to put their votes, and yet they did not choose Liberal. The one-time natural party of government in Victoria went backwards on primary votes by about 1 per cent.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/daniel-andrews-the-dominant-political-figure-of-his-generation-20221127-p5c1m9.html
Report card on the polls
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/did-the-polls-get-it-right-experts-give-their-verdict-20221127-p5c1nh.html
Short version: they did ok. In fact given they landed up within a pretty close range I wonder (based on a superficial look, not informed analysis) if they look a bit herdy. The Herald Sun’s attempt to find a spurious ray of right wing sunshine on the preelection Redbridge poll, by positing 2 scenarios, one of which wishcasted a hung Parliament, is hilarious
max: “‘The Age editorial is no kinder:
“The electorate’s repudiation of the Liberal Party, the anti-Dan protest movement and the Murdoch media could not have been more thorough.”’
Hmm. The Age of course avoids calling out Nine FauxFox’s own complicity.
A post on another site yesterday mentioned “a rather weird Tweet from the Editor of The Age, telling everyone out of Victoria to butt out because they didn’t understand what was going on”.
Anyone here come across that one?
max: “Report card on the polls … Short version: they did ok.”
Indeed. Kevin Bonham’s ‘Final Days Rolling Poll Roundup’ reported 2PP Polling Aggregates (‘not necessarily accurate’) of:
• 55.0 to ALP (last-election preferences)
• 54.1 to ALP (pollster-released 2PPs)
The ABC currently estimates the 2PP at 54.1 – 45.9.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victoria-lower-house-2022-final-days.html
Homer Eugene Le Grand reports on Liberal party meltdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n23oapBEao
This is a tweet that did catch my attention…the GG’s wife singing in front of dignitaries.
Talk about a captive audience.
Embarrassing to say the least.
https://t.co/4HmN971Wyf
The Richmond result was expected because of several factors.
1) Wynne had been a popular long serving local member (despite not living in the electorate) who was retiring.
2) The Green’s candidate for the two previous elections had been a controversial choice – Kathleen Maltzahn – who’s views on Sex work and trans issues ran counter to many green voters
3) The ALP candidate was attacked in the media during the last week of campaign over her claim indigenous status. This may have made her look dishonest in the eyes of some.
4) The Liberals changed their policy on preferencing the Greens before Labor that had been in place since 2010.
If Labor holds Northcote, it would appear the Liberals’ decision to preference the Greens made no difference. All the seats the Greens won, they would have won anyway.
Richmond is a possible exception, but even there the Greens would probably have sneaked over the line with the help of preferences from Animal Justice and other left-wing micros.
The spreadsheet I have been using to track swings per polling place and vote type actually has the Liberals sitting on a -0.2% 2CP swing on what’s been counted so far. That alone would usually indicate more likelihood of an IND win since their margin was already -0.6%.
But I think what the main issue is this time, is that with the increased early vote there will be more postals and less absents than last time, which is why Pesutto is favoured to win – which I do agree with.
That said, some of the other commentary predicting that the remaining votes will extend Pesutto’s lead I think is incorrectly assuming that independents “don’t do well” on absents so most of the remaining votes will favour the Liberals. I don’t think that’s the case, as absents do strongly favour ALP & Greens whose preferences will overwhelmingly flow to the IND. I think William’s model predicting that Pesutto’s lead will narrow rather than increase (although he is still favoured to win) is more accurate.
A couple of factors I’m looking out for:
– Will late postals break differently as they did federally, due to people who contracted Covid in the last week? (It will be much less of a factor than federally, but may still occur)
– Will the uncounted absents be out of district, and therefore break more like dec-prepolls which tend to behave like absents and favour ALP & Greens (and therefore flow to IND)?
There are still question marks over Hawthorn I think until we get another batch of numbers which may make the outcome more clear.
EightES – I think they might have actually struggled a bit without Liberals preferences in Richmond – it is currently 57-43 and will narrow a little with the last of postals. The primaries were Green 37%, ALP 31%, Liberal 19%, Other 13%. So the Green did probably need some Liberal preferences.
Additionally, Melbourne would have been closer too but not enough to have changed the result.
B.S. Fairman,
My understanding is that, with regard to Greens/Labor preferences, about two thirds of Liberal voters follow HTV cards, so the HTVs change about one third. So the Greens probably benefited from the Liberal HTVs by about six to seven percentage points, meaning there’s a good chance they would have just hung on.
Although you’re right, postals might change that.
I feel like north of the river, the Victorian Socialists actually cannibalised the Greens vote quite a bit.
In a lot of the seats there was a large swing against Labor but nearly all of it went to the Victorian Socialists, while the Greens vote remained stagnant or in some cases even went backwards (but preferences seemed to flow strongly to the Greens).
Victorian Socialists in the inner north & west are looking like the Greens did 20 years ago…
Meanwhile the Greens made their biggest gains south of the river with a 9% primary vote swing in Prahran.
Albert Park had a 4% primary vote swing but that was really just a reversal of the swing against them in 2018.
It seems like the two biggest Greens heartlands now are Sydney Road and Chapel Street, moreso than High Street (Northcote) and Brunswick Street.
Greetings Trent.
Remember our discussion about Prahran, where I said I’d bow to your local knowledge about the Liberals finishing outside the top two, unless you turn out to be wrong, in which case I’d say “Ha, ha”?
Well… Ha, ha!
You’re right I do remember early on, based on federal results, I was predicting the Liberals to finish third. So props to you there, you were definitely right earlier on than me!
More recently I had actually switched that prediction, my most recent prediction over at Tally Room was Greens “high 30s”, Liberals 27-29% and Labor 25-27% which ended up being pretty close!
(Currently Greens 37%, Liberals 31% and Labor 26% but absents will probably increase the Greens the most and reduce the Liberals the most, so I’m expecting a final result of maybe Greens 38%, Liberals 30% and Labor 26% or something)
Geetroit @ #21 Monday, November 28th, 2022 – 10:22 am
???????
@ max
I understand the references to Menzies and his Liberal Party in historical terms, but I reckon the Party is well past that reference.
I reckon we are seeing the Liberals as the Party of John Howard. Under his leadership the Party gravitated further and further to the Right and that influence now has led the Party to its current lows. That trend increased under Abbott and reached its nadir under Morrison.
Where to now for that once powerful and pragmatic Party?
I reckon they’re cooked.
@Geetroit: “ABC now has Albert Park declared as a gain for the Greens.”
ABC calculator is just wrong because it’s automatically feeding the incorrect 2CP count from the VEC.
It’s valuable that they did do that incorrect 2CP count because it gave us data to show that had it been a Labor v Greens count, the Greens would have won it.
However, the Greens are in distant third place and it is clearly an ALP v LIB count which the VEC will be recounting today. It’s a safe Labor retain.
https://theconversation.com/media-go-for-drama-on-victorian-election-and-miss-the-story-195421
Media go for drama on Victorian election – and miss the story
Published: November 27, 2022 7.25pm AEDT
For the best part of two weeks, Victorian voters were told by the media that the election on November 26 might result in either a hung parliament or a minority Labor government.
In the event, the Labor government was returned with a reduced but clear majority, the size of which is not yet known, while the Coalition has suffered a crushing defeat.
How could the pre-election coverage have been at once so breathless and misleading?
The short answer is because of a combination of groupthink and wishful thinking. Unpacking this requires the disclosure of a few trade secrets.
What is going on with Polwarth
Your results show Riordan (LIB) clearly winning but your model shows ALP winning with minimal chance of LIB victory
Oliver- the currently on long term leave editor of The Age, Gay Alcorn, surfaced to say that on Twitter and then say “back on leave bye” basically.
Hard to interpret it as much other than a shot at Bevan Shields although perhaps the likes of Joe Hildebrand too.
The Age, usually a complete censorship zone for anything at al critical of The Age and its writers, is actually somehow allowing plenty of comments on its post-election articles pointing out what gigantic hypocrites The Age and Le Grand, Sakkal etc are being to talk about the Liberals and News getting it wrong without mentioning themselves.
I await Bachelard’s weekly thing to subscribers (via paywall jumping, of course) as he must be getting a massive dump from readers and subscribers right about now. If he ignores that he can join Le Grand on the shitlist as far as I’m concerned, the Age’s coverage of the state election managed to be worse than the Federal.
An unnoticed trend has been the increase in the Green vote in the Geelong region. And not just in the inner city booths, with solid growth in Corio, Norlane, Newcomb, Whittington, Armstrong Creek, Lara, along the coast and the Bellarine and in the Otways.
I suspect the secret of Northcote is that it is gentrifying. The people who moved there when it was the center of alternative left wingdom in Melbourne are older now and it isn’t where the fresh young rah rah Greens go to live. It has passed its peak Green-ness.
At this point my claim early in the campaign that a betting man should take the odds on offer against all the “teals” because they were hilariously over optimistic based on no polling data and media fighting the last war over again is looking spot on.
The “Teal” indie in Caulfield got less than 7% primary. How many times did me and to be fair others point out that Caulfield was totally the wrong seat for a Teal?
Arky – I suspect that even Melbourne will see a slight move away from Green-ness with the increase in overseas born population becoming citizens.
@Arky re: Caulfield, many times!
It’s just not teal territory. The Liberal vote is mostly socially conservative (Orthodox Jewish). There is a strong, solid Labor vote in parts. And the west of the seat is more like St Kilda & Windsor – young, progressive Greens territory. The Greens more than doubled the IND vote in Caulfield.
I suspect that all the “teal” has actually done, is help Southwick retain. He had a -2.6% swing on his primary vote that may have gone to Labor had she not been in the race. As it turns out, having an IND option allowed disaffected Liberal voters (or voters who swung from LIB to ALP in 2018) to park a first preference protest vote but then preference the Liberals ahead of Labor.
My view is that Nomi Kaltmann, an ex-Labor member, as a result of her poor judgement has unwittingly helped David Southwick retain the seat.
Arky @ #27 Monday, November 28th, 2022 – 10:27 am
When you lay down with Murdochs ‘Australian’ cast off scribes you get fleas…It’s in their DNA but unfortunately The Age is now forever tarnished.Well at least till the next election when they do the same all over again:-(
Yes, I am surprised by that Caulfield result. The “Teal” raised one of the largest amounts of money too and got a lot of free publicity in the Age, ABC and Guardian, but got very few votes.
Hi – soz for the confusion re Albert Park. It was a temp data error on the ABC website that had a bogus Grn v ALP 2PP count. Its been corrected and the ALP v Lib 2PP restored, and along with it the correct result.
I think most people who were pushing the “teal” narrative in Caulfield were simply unfamiliar with the area.
They look at it on paper – results history & demographics – and see the following:
– Inner city, close to Greens areas, indicates socially progressive
– Consistent Liberal history makes it appear “blue ribbon”
– Wealthy
All those factors make it sound like Hawthorn, Kew, Goldstein, etc. But what they’re missing is the story behind the overall numbers.
Whereas Hawthorn, Kew and Goldstein have pretty consistent results across their seats, and the target teal demographic of “small l” Liberals is evenly spread, Caulfield is actually made up of distinct pockets of Labor, Greens and more conservative Liberal support. It’s completely different.
There are very few areas that you’d classify as being suited to a “teal” in Caulfield, probably only around Caulfield South and Elsternwick but even then, Elsternwick is increasingly Green/Labor and a lot of the Liberal base in Caulfield South is pretty conservative (not as much as Caulfield North).
The Cookers are going nuts online about voting rigging in Mugrave that Ian Cook is claiming. So a guy who has made wild claims about a planted slug is now claiming that all his votes are being misread as either Labor or Liberal votes. Just so believable.
One last Credlin memory. Such good times! The inner warmth shines radiantly through.
From top of the pecking order to useless, soiled feather dusters.
The vicious ice Queen and her performing chimp.
Good boy Tony didn’t last long..
Living in Caulfield, there was a lot of groundwork/advertising from Southwhick. Blue shirts everywhere on the weekends, and my apolitical housemate returned with a blue Southwhick shopping bag thinking it was the bag for a shopping centre (lmao).
The odds online had LNP as 3rd favourite which truly surprised me- at $3 behind Ind. $2.50 and ALP $2.75. Couldn’t help but put money on Southwhick given the feel on the ground.
Easy money post-fact.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, November 28, 2022 at 11:19 am
The Cookers are going nuts online about voting rigging in Mugrave that Ian Cook is claiming. So a guy who has made wild claims about a planted slug is now claiming that all his votes are being misread as either Labor or Liberal votes. Just so believable.
—————-
The Mulgrave count was stalled at about 7% until quite late in the evening so I imagine that gives cookers the opportunity to argue that the “real” votes were impounded and in the meantime VEC staff and Dan Andrews’ minions were furiously rewriting substitute ballots. Or maybe bamboo ballots with invisible ink were involved…. Or next generation ballot papers that automatically flip to the desired candidate when the Jewish space lasers beam the right code to them via 5G?
Damn, she really chose her life choices with the energy that that face radiates.
Imagine ideologically sticking your flag into depression.
I suspect what the Cookers are misunderstanding is the 2CP count. So yes, the Ian Cook votes would be split to either Labor or Liberal for that. But they are going full Cooker over it.
Gettysburg1863 says:
Monday, November 28, 2022 at 10:25 am
@ max
I understand the references to Menzies and his Liberal Party in historical terms, but I reckon the Party is well past that reference.
I reckon we are seeing the Liberals as the Party of John Howard. Under his leadership the Party gravitated further and further to the Right and that influence now has led the Party to its current lows. That trend increased under Abbott and reached its nadir under Morrison.
Where to now for that once powerful and pragmatic Party?
I reckon they’re cooked.
———-
I agree. The Menzian legacy of the Liberal Party expired more than a generation ago. It’s hard to see where they go, short of a split and formation of a new party, which the conservatives did several times in the 20th century.
Those who would like to move the party to the centre – the most obvious route to shorter term electoral success – face the problem that a large part of its membership are way more right wing/doctrinaire/religious fundamentalist than the voting population as a whole. These also form a large portion of its volunteer base, and due to their relative strength and influence many of them are now in the Liberal party room, facing off against people like Pesutto, who might want to track to the centre.
Unscrambling that egg is not at all easy. The only obvious way to rebuild the party within its existing structure would be to build a more broadly based membership, but with the party’s current image reasonable citizens of a conservative disposition would be turned off- and are more inclined to vote Teal. Catch 22. While it would cause more short term pain they are probably better to split with the centrists setting up a new party. Again not straightforward given the flow on Federal implications and the inevitable fight over the Liberal brand.
They probably hope that at some election or other they’ll just fall over the line on the principle that sooner or later ageing governments get thrown out. But there’s not much joy there either. As the latest LNP Federal government demonstrated, a party that consists of extreme right wingers and a few centrists ends up being immobilised and doing nothing much at all.
I’m not personally at all troubled by the woes of the Liberal Party- except that I do think there is something to the point people make about the value of effective parliamentary opposition. An effective opposition would help protect Labor governments from the real risk of arrogance and hubris.
Funny how LeGrand and Sakkal have such confidential access to so many Liberal Party MP’s
This is who these “journalists” represent – exclusively
And promote
And funny that this knowledge from their Liberal Party sources only comes to light AFTER the election, not before when they waxed lyrical re the Liberal Party and constantly attacked Labor and its Leader as they did
They (and others) at 9 Entertainment need to be shown the door if that media organisation is to recover any credibility (alongside Gittens and Maley who are independent journalists)
This election result is more than a result which has returned a government
For Murdoch there is no hope
Ditto with Stokes
We are just left to laugh at them
And in regards interest rates, a 10 Year Bond Yield of 3.6% is low, very low
In simple terms, interest rates are a factor of inflation and the cost of money
And just to repeat, how long since Malcolm Fraser said the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party but is now a Conservative Party?
So nothing new in 2022
Where are the Chaney’s, the McPhee’s and the Georgiou’s
Replaced by who (from the IPA)?
Sprocket @6:42am
Come to Jesus moment indeed. Jesus has been kind to them because as of now Liberals have won 15 seats instead of 2 like their cousins in WA.
Well done Victorian Liberals.!
So my thing of comparing the 2018 polls with the present day ones had me pretty much on the money.
I predicted that the number of seats for Labor would remain the same.
That only one Teal was likely.
That at most the Greens picking up seats due to Liberal preferences was a ‘maybe’ in a couple of seats.
I did get Ovens wrong….I was predicting a slight swing to Labor.
BTW, thank you for your efforts, Z.
Much appreciated.
When it comes to the Teals. Demographic change in the Teal areas is overrated and the Liberals have a mountain of work to rebuild support in the Teal areas.
The unpleasant surprise results of the night for me were the substantial swings back to the Liberals in Brighton and Sandringham.
I have to say I didn’t predict that at all. I thought the Liberal MPs would be most likely retain as a result of IND preferences (but that Brighton could be a possible surprise Labor upset), but that the Liberal primary votes would go further backwards and that they would be very close races with little change from 2018.
I didn’t expect the Liberals to actually get positive primary vote swings and rebuild that much of their pre-2018 margin.