Victorian election live

1,261 comments on “Victorian election live”

1. The Nationals Federal vote has not been above 10% since 1987. In the last Federal election, the Nationals picked up 3.6% of the vote. That’s 4.5% if we exclude Queensland where they are merged into the LNP in 2008.

   So not that successful in terms of votes. However, the system of single-member electorates magnifies their influence way out of proportion to their electoral support.

2. s777
   The Nationals routinely form government in Coalition.
   The Greens routinely do not.
   The Nationals far outperform the Greens.

3. The Nationals understand that politics is about power. The Greens think it is about being righteous.

4. For the Greens politics is performative. For the Nats politics is delivering.

5. The only seat in which Nationals ran and failed was Bass (and they would have failed in Narracan if their candidate didn’t do himself in too). 9 out of 10 is not a bad record.

6. Steelydan @ #1043 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 1:24 pm

   Unfortunately Victorians have to learn a very simple lesson every generation, become an economic basket case and then we come back in and right the ship.

   It’s fine being an economic basket case. The scale is always relative. As long as you’re less of a basket case than at least one other municipality , you’re actually doing okay.

   At ~20% GSP, Victoria is doing better than places like New York, Hawaii, and Rhode Island. They’re beating the Fed’s debt ratio by more than half. Nothing to worry about.

7. I am not denying the National’s success, just pointing out their tiny support.

   It is also interesting to note that the level of National’s support outside Queensland, at 4.5%, was lower than that of One Nation (5.0% nationwide) and a bit higher than that the UAP (4.1% nationwide).

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Australian_federal_election#Newspaper_endorsements

8. i have had a day to think about this result and i think the Libs next time will have a better leader and prob better policies. Their is one thing that i thought upset me a tad about last night, i thought Andrews gloated to much on the stage and he did not respect Matthew Guy. Whilst i hate toffs, people also hate gloaters and arrogance and Andrews should have pulled his head in a bit. The Libs are gloaters and a disrespectful bunch but let them be and don’t be like them. People hate that.
   I think a better low key leader for the Libs next time and the time factor and we’ve had enough of Andrews factor could see Labor being turfed out. Labor must be careful with this term.

9. Late counting of postals in Pakenham has 2PP of:

   Labor 15,939
   Liberal 15,931

   A lead of 8

10. The Greens have minimized their potential impact. Neither of the majors trust them. The Nationals have maximized their’s.
    That is why the Nationals have outperformed the Greens.

11. I’m honestly curious about what went on in the 1982-1992 Cain-Kirner government and what exactly went so wrong.

    The Liberal-National Coalition had a blocking majority in the upper house for almost all of it, other than a blip in 1985 that was overturned in Nunawading Region.

    It must have been very tough to govern decisively in that time.

12. The Greens have been successful at one thing clearly. Getting into the psyche of Boerwar to the point of unhealthy obsession.

13. I agree with Crispy Wedges in that Labor should not be arrogant in the next term and take 2026 for granted.

    The next Liberal leader is likely to be John Pesutto (assuming he wins Hawthorn), and from what I know of him, he does seem like a moderate Ted Bailleu-like figure that can win elections in Victoria if given the opportunity.

    But I think Dan was entitled to take a swipe back at his opponents last night. They’ve been doing enough swiping at him themselves for the past 8 years and it’s only human to want to be like “I’m still here, despite your outrageous propaganda campaign against me personally.”

    I’ll just see how the next few years play out. But I don’t think it would be a bad idea for Andrews to step down sometime. If he does it in 2024 then he’ll still be the 3rd longest serving Premier in Victorian history, and give the new leader the chance to build up their own brand for the 2026 election.

14. poor old weanslide
    I seem to have got into his pathetic little head.

15. The LC was reformed under Bracks.

16. The Liberals need more than a new leader. They gave huge systemic issues.

17. Th US want to sanction Russian aluminum , nickle and copper.

    Inflationary.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/aluminium-spikes-7-after-report-us-ban-russian-supplies-2022-10-12/

18. Kirsdarkesays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 7:03 pm
    I’m honestly curious about what went on in the 1982-1992 Cain-Kirner government and what exactly went so wrong.
    _____________________
    They sent us broke.

19. Kirksdale – Ah… the 80s…. Lots of excess….. but then the party started to stop.

    Pyramid Building Society in Geelong went bust after the state government assured people it was Ok a few months before.

    The state’s investment bank Tri-continental bank went bust after some really dud investing and state bailed it out with the State Bank of Victoria which then needed to bailed out by the Commonwealth Bank.

    The budget was shot to pieces by all these issues, so they were forced to raise state taxes and some spending. So all that stuff that makes a government super popular.

    So Kennett got elected, cut services even more, firing a lot of teachers, nurses, public servants etc. He also flogged off the power and gas networks and public transport system to balance the budget.

20. Yes Boerwar you have got into my head. I cannot deny that. The last two pages which I scrolled through were filled with your outpouring of your obsession about the Greens and what they are (and what you imagine them to be) so yes, well done. And this is coming from a Labor supporter.

21. State and Federal government debt is now all financed in Australian dollars. The risks are all within the Australian economy. I think before Liberal hacks start shouting debt, debt, debt the should look at the behavior of the Morrison and Howard government ( the biggest spenders, with few assets to show for it) and read this:

    https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/the-road-to-australian-dollar-funding.html

22. Jeff Kennett reacts to Labor’s win…

    

23. Kirsdarke

    A state liberal moderate will have the same problem Turnbull had.

24. Well, regardless of what went on in the Cain-Kirner years, I still make it a point to stop by second hand book stores from time to time to see if I can find any copies of biographies/memoirs of Victorian politicians from those years to get informed about them. Haven’t had any luck so far.

    Also no luck at my local library either.

25. @Frednk

    That’s true, hence why I added the caveat “if given the opportunity”.

    Most likely scenario if Pesutto becomes Opposition Leader then the crazies in the Libs will tear him down like they did with Michael O’Brien, then turn to someone like David Southwick, Brad Battin or even Matthew Guy for Round 3. I remember Lawrence Springborg in Queensland frequently returned to leadership in Queensland during the Beattie-Bligh years only to keep on losing elections.

    But Victorian Labor has to be careful to not repeat the mistakes of the 2006-2010 term that lost them that election.

26. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 7:27 pm

    Well, regardless of what went on in the Cain-Kirner years, I still make it a point to stop by second hand book stores from time to time to see if I can find any copies of biographies/memoirs of Victorian politicians from those years to get informed about them. Haven’t had any luck so far.

    Also no luck at my local library either.
    ——————————–
    There’s a real lack of books on state premiers but there’s a few books in libraries but not many.

27. I wouldn’t say that Southwick is a crazy but Battin is a cooker.

28. The Kennett Revolution out of Monash Uni was an excellent work.

29. K
    I recall walking past Cain’s Office and being told that he kept a set of his own stamps in a drawer to put on personal envelopes. He was that honest.

30. I’ve watched a few clips of reactions to the Labor win sourced from SkyNews in particular and the theme I get is that the ideology of the presenters and Liberal voices tells me that the conservatives just can’t be right-wing enough.
    I thought SfM was the turd you couldn’t flush but, this is the true mass of brown concrete that just will not pass the S-bend.
    The right wing MSM has a business model that seemingly can’t deviate from the raving, loony right…any suggestion that it’s not the way to go is simply not conscionable. It’s about money, this is what they sell, and you don’t go to a pub to drink 0% alcohol beer, it’s full-strength or nothing.
    No chance that Dutton or any state Lib will abandon their chief spruikers, so , full-throttle “Thelma and Louise” over the Cliff.

31. My take from the Vic election is that despite Murdoch’s minions’ attempts to sow the seeds of division & rancour, the majority of
    Victorians weren’t going to have a bar of it. A great result indeed, and a BZ for Andrews & his underlings. Yes, there were swings against Labor in some seats, but it made not an iota of difference to the outcome, which may see the Andrews’ government on 55…

    Another take is how wrong some of the so-called experts were! In elections, the only near-objective indicators of outcomes are the polls & the betting markets, both of which portended a strong Labor victory. And without a hint of hubris(?), it’s back to the drawing board for Jeremy, Steelydan, Taylormade, et al.

32. DB
    It is weird.

33. Some of those Sky News commentators wouldn’t be happy less the kids are back down the coal mines 6 days a week and in church on Sunday.

34. Boerwar @ #1166 Sunday, November 27th, 2022 – 7:14 pm

    poor old weanslide
    I seem to have got into his pathetic little head.

    It’s not hard. 😐

35. I found the Greenslide! 😀

    

36. Cain Jnr was a brilliant leader the best Labor has had, honest, smart and humble. He belonged to the independent faction. The factions hated him because he kept them in line.
    I met him a couple of times and he never took anyone for granted. When he went overseas he paid for it himself i believe and when he did his articles before becoming a lawyer he paid for that.
    He always wanted to help the little man, he in my view is the best Priemer for Victoria i have seen and is one of three of the best leaders Labor has had in Australia in my lifetime, Whitlam and Dunstan the others. They all did was right and did not care about people and detractors within the party.

37. The Liberals have been most successful in NSW State politics, where been generally been moderate and reasonably sensible, not charging off to the far right in pursuit of the a “Trumpian” vote. They have mostly kept the religious Right in their box.

    There must be a lesson for the Victorian Liberals there.

38. The right wing will shut up if Pesutto becomes leader just to win the election and after that the problems will begin. That is what i expect will happen. It could be like Howard in 1995 and the moderates.
    I think their will be people out their in the public ready for change.
    The only caveat in all this, is climate change which i think will slowly become more extreme with it’s events. How both parties handle it is the big test.
    And the climate will get worse because much of the world is doing nothing, and our emission reductions don’t overly matter. The gases in the atmosphere are getting worse and worse.

39. Labor constantly wins seats with the help of Greens preferences and it’s viewed as legitimate win by the commentariat here, but when the Greens win with the help of Liberal preferences it’s an illegitimate win. You all know how our system works, grow up.

40. At one point in Australia we had 7 (Seven) free enterprise banks – plus we had the Commonwealth Bank plus the State banks (and in the days of Trading Banks and Savings Banks)

    The industry was heavily regulated

    In fact, very heavily regulated

    From there we saw banks among the 7 Free enterprise banks collapse and others forced to merge

    So we lost The Commercial Banking Company of Sydney, the ES&A Bank, The Bank of Adelaide Limited and The Commercial Bank of Australia, along with all the State Banks (forced to merge with the CBA)

    So the likes of the State Bank of NSW, the State Bank of South Australia along with the Savings Bank of SA , the State Bank of Victoria and on it went

    There were several contributing events across that period of time, the most significant the Savings & Loans bust in the USA, which event pressured real estate valuations globally – and was also the precursor to the IMF Crisis in Asia (upon Thailand floating the Baht)

    Australia was not immune from the impacts, with pressure on the Balance Sheets of each bank (despite regulation)

    Sitting underneath these pressures on banks (which were underwritten by the Commonwealth of Australia) were the Building Societies, lent long and borrowed short with no diversification of lending

    The upshot was that Building Societies were obliged (forced) to the regulatory requirements the banks were obliged to adhere to, so Capital Adequacy, Liquid Asset Ratios etc etc

    And Building Societies collapsed – joining the banks which also collapsed in Australia and globally

    This was a pre-curser to the sub prime lending crisis of circa 2008 – which also collapsed banks and forced the nationalisation of banks along with mergers globally

    In Asia, banks had not revalued the real estate security securing advances and the condition of IMF involvement was that these banks be left to fail

    The fall in real estate valuations was courtesy of the Savings & Loans debacle in the USA

    The events referred to by someone as “what happened in Victoria, Australia” were global, including each State an Australia

    The same with the First Global Oil Crisis

    The Farrow Group had the reputation of being “lenders of the last resort” and with a failed business model where paying interest on time saw the charge rate under the rate available to depositors

    And, given the desperation of those who borrowed from them, they charged outrageous Loan Approval Fees which, it could be put, found their way to Farrow and Clark

    Given above market rates were paid on deposits, they attracted depositors – theState Government underwriting those deposits as the business unravelled

    I would not have underwritten – the higher the rate the higher the risk and in my opinion the responsibility of depositors

    But politics intervened

    Obviously a book could be written – but this gives some idea

    The pressures were introduced by global events spinning off the Savings & Loans bust

    Then came the 1987 Stock Market Crash

    They were all related with a central catalyst

    These days there are International Regulations across the banking industry and which generally work (noting there is a major International Bank currently working its way thru a level of financial distress)

41. Blanket Criticism
    If the greens can get the Liberals to preference them, good on them. They would probable do better if they moved to the right of Labor anyway.

42. BK
    The difference is that the Greens do Holier-than-thou.

43. “The Liberals have been most successful in NSW State politics, where been generally been moderate and reasonably sensible, not charging off to the far right in pursuit of the a “Trumpian” vote. They have mostly kept the religious Right in their box.

    There must be a lesson for the Victorian Liberals there.”

    From afar Victoria looks pretty broken, the MSM in Victoria seems to be the worst most partisan hack closest to Alex Jones garbage in Australia, but other than the MSM NSW seems much more broken in all respects. The NSW police seem just systemically corrupt and there does not appear to be any check or balance on that.

    Both the NSW Labor branch and the NSW Liberal / National branches seem the most corrupt in Australia by a long shot. Sure the Victorian liberals win on incompetence, but the NSW state motto should be ‘State of Corruption’.

    Howard, Abbott, Morrison all but destroyed the APS, the east coast electricity network / generation and retail, i could go on.

    As Trump showed winning elections is a very silly and very narrow definition of success.

    Very important to remember whether at the joy of Victorian ALP destroying the disgraceful partisan scum and enemies of democracy in the media in Victoria or Gladys winning in NSW last time, the voters are not necessarily ‘right’, the is no ‘right’ in democracy, there is just deserts, you always get the Government they deserve. And it seems noone deserves a worse Govt than NSW. So I’m not sure NSW has anything to offer to the rest of the country except ‘DO NOT DO THIS’.

44. Winning elections and deploying power is the only test for success.

45. crispy wedges:

    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 8:05 pm

    Plus one. And while I think that Bolte & Hamer should be critiqued contextually, it was a dog act by the former to exhaust Ryan’s rights, for crass political expediency.

46. In the Kennett era in Victoria, the main gap between Labor and Liberal was economic. Labor might have had a few more enlightened types than the Coalition but social conservatism still ruled. Remember that Julia Gillard backing traditional marriage was over 10 years IN THE FUTURE when Kennett was rolled. Labor lost government to Kennett on the back of a series of economic crises including the failure of Tricontinental and the State Bank of Victoria. Labor regained government from Kennett as Victorians revolted against Kennett economic vandalism of State services, privatizations and neglect of the regions.

    So too the major differences between Labor and Liberal federally in the 90s were economic.

    But the Liberal Party has been transformed in the past 20 years by John Howard’s culture wars and blind copycatting of America. Initially the culture wars along with the global boomtime helped John Howard ward off the Labor Party. But the right wing ultimately lost the culture war. And now it’s that which will keep the Libs out of power in Victoria indefinitely until they fix it. They’ve made no net progress against Labor after the Danslide, that should have been impossible – except that they ran back Guy and they ran back a deck of candidates socially unacceptable to the voters they turned off in 2018.

    And if they keep being a Republican style alt right party that will keep happening forever until someone organises a replacement party and puts them out of business.

47. I’m watching Cory Bernardi on Sky News interviewing Liberal for Western Victoria MLC Bev McArthur and had to laugh at her anecdote about how confusing the Liberal HTV cards were. She said that some voters took the cards because they featured Dan Andrews prominently, then angrily returned to the volunteers asking for cards that indicated how to actually vote for Labor.

    Now that is quite an embarrassing marketing decision.

48. Just had a toilet thought – The Liberals have only managed to win 1 election in Victoria in the last 25 years.

49. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 7:19 pm

    Kirsdarkesays:
    Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 7:03 pm
    I’m honestly curious about what went on in the 1982-1992 Cain-Kirner government and what exactly went so wrong.
    _____________________
    They sent us broke.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Taylormade

50. The Greens have been following the Nationals strategy post Bob Brown, concentrating their vote in a specific area (in their case, predominantly Labor held inner city lower house seats) at the expense of growing their broader appeal and potential upper house vote. Talking about how the Nationals only have 3 or 4% of the vote or whatever ignores that they simply don’t run in most seats due to the Coalition agreement. It would be like saying an independent doesn’t deserve to win because they have only 0.2% of the statewide vote!

    Both of them are effective. The Nats inevitably extract concessions from Liberal governments while the Greens are often in a balance of power situation in at least the upper house for a Labor government) and even occasionally do deals with a Liberal government…

    The Nats have been more effective Federally for a generation because their Coalition partners have. Let’s check in after 2 terms of Albo to see whether the Nats or the Greens have done better from it…