Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

800 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

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  1. Scott Morrison has put out another lengthy facebook post today to try and justify himself and his actions:
    (This is from The Monthly Today’s summary):

    Whatever state of mind Morrison was or is in, it’s clear he believes his actions – which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described as “unprecedented” – were perfectly acceptable. In this afternoon’s defensive Facebook post (in which he states he is “pleased” on three separate occasions), the member for Cook “notes” that the criticisms of his decisions are being made with the benefit of hindsight – as if the self-appointments would not have been heavily criticised at the time had people known about them. Morrison also pushed back against reports that he declined to be involved in the inquiry beyond engaging through his taxpayer-funded lawyers – a point that Albanese was eager to push in today’s press conference, noting it contradicted Morrison’s earlier promises to cooperate. Morrison insists he did cooperate, with “six separate and comprehensive responses … via correspondence as was the practice with other respondents to The Inquiry”. It speaks volumes, however, that he declined to meet with Bell.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2022/11/25/clear-bell

    The master of hair-splitting at it again it seems.

  2. The Opposition says it will cooperate with whatever legislative changes are required, although it’s worth noting a further revelation from Savva’s book: the shadow cabinet decided to “deliberately downplay” the secret ministries story in the hours after it broke. (“That’s not a description I would agree with,” Liberal deputy Sussan Ley said when it was put to her. She remains curiously reluctant to openly criticise Morrison.)

    Of course Sussssan Lie wouldn’t agree with it. She’d have to tell the truth then.

  3. Themunz says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 4:39 pm

    “You are my sunshine” of contested parentage originating in the deep south of the US. Could be popular amongst Pentecostals.

    Starts to look like a shot in the imported culture wars. Plenty of songs from our own musical heritage to choose from if a singalong is really necessary.

    How long has this been a secret?
    _______________
    This scandal has got it all. Links to the Deep South, Pentecostalism, lack of patriotism, forced singing.

  4. Whatever state of mind Morrison was or is in, it’s clear he believes his actions – which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described as “unprecedented” – were perfectly acceptable.

    I dont know where to start. Why is it clear? His firmness in repeatedly claiming that his actions were acceptable is proof of nothing. Absolutely nothing. Worthless empty claims. I suggest he knows perfectly well his actions were not perfectly acceptable – that explains the secrecy.

    Why arent the journalists getting this? Politicians lie. They will lie to your face. And Morrison, through his lack of any shame, will lie over and over and over with the same resoluteness each time. It is who he is. It is what he does. Why do they continue to crumble in the face of this bluster?

  5. “ That’s an appropriate response to a shameful episode which both Bell and the solicitor-general conclude “fundamentally undermined” the principles of responsible government, and was “apt to undermine public confidence in government” and was “corrosive of trust in government”.

    I wonder if the good folk of the seat of Cook still believe the architect and proponent of such a debasement of Australian Government is the most suitable representative of them and their values?

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-s-multiple-ministries-fated-to-remain-a-mystery-20221123-p5c0ru

  6. Cronus @ #508 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 5:44 pm

    I wonder if the good folk of the seat of Cook still believe the architect and proponent of such a debasement of Australian Government is the most suitable representative of them and their values?

    The longer he stays in Parliament on the back bench as a reminder to all about what he got up to the better.

    Even better is he has no where left to go.

  7. dave
    SfM will have a nice little earner preaching/testifying/speaking to Holy Roller churches/gatherings. One of ‘theirs’ climbed to the top of one of the ‘ Mountains’.

  8. Nobody listens to Morrison anymore; he is pathetic. Him and Campbell Newman, proven fuckwits with no chance of redemption either in the present or in history.

    His departmental Secretary and staff are also tarnished and the GG is a figure of mirth.

    All needlessly, although you might think if it wasn’t the multiple ministries something else would have been revealed or may still be.

  9. Morrison must wonder how it is that he is the only person out of 26 million who believes what he did was right. Or perhaps he doesn’t wonder anything at all.

    He will however wake up one day into the future as he realises that for all time, his only legacy, and that by which he will be known in parody, is that he more than any other leader debased our democratic government. He can place that trophy next to his “I stopped the boats” trophy.

  10. The mandatory singing at Government House is a little… eccentric… if harmless.

    Before becoming GG, David Hurley served five uneventful years as Governor of NSW. I don’t know if singing was compulsory back then.

    Mr Hurley was raised Anglican but converted to Presbyterianism when he married.

  11. Regarding former Justice Bell’s recommendations, can I suggest that Albo wrap them together into an Omnibus Morrison OmniMinistries Bill thereby guaranteeing the notoriety of the main protagonist for time immemorial.

  12. Steve777 says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:16 pm
    The mandatory singing at Government House is a little… eccentric… if harmless.

    Before becoming GG, David Hurley served five uneventful years as Governor of NSW. I don’t know if singing was compulsory.

    Mr Hurley was raised Anglican but converted to Presbyterianism when he married.
    —————————————————————————————-

    Harmless! That is of course unless you are one of the many unlucky tone deaf (often foreign) guests or dignitaries forced to participate against your better will and judgement. Where the heck is the dignity of the institution in this bizarre pastime? I guess we should be happy they’re not forced to hula hoop at the same time.

  13. Barney in Cherating says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:20 pm
    BK @ #442 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 11:14 am

    “Well may there be some good Dorothy Dixers to give Albanese the chance to unload on Morrison next week.
    My question is for the Prime Minister.

    Prime Minister do you hold any extra Ministries that we are not aware of, either now or at any time in the past?”

    At least it explains why he couldn’t hold a hose.

  14. Dastardly Dictator Dan doing something right. Squawks from the ‘Santamaria’ wing of the chook yard………………….

    A premier crusade against Christianity

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews runs the most dedicated and consistent anti-Christian government in Australian history.

    GREG SHERIDAN

  15. Breakthrough in Sydney’s long-running rail dispute
    By Matt O’Sullivan

    A long-running industrial dispute that has crippled Sydney’s rail network over months has been resolved after the state government signed a deal committing it to modifications to a multibillion-dollar train fleet.

    NSW Transport Minister David Elliott said the government and rail unions had reached a breakthrough on Friday afternoon after the state agreed to sign a deed to modify the mothballed intercity train fleet. Elliott said the rail union would withdraw all industrial action.

  16. Andrews can be a hypocrite on social inclusion but his government isn’t anti-christian and his kids go to a catholic school.

  17. “The mandatory singing at Government House is a little… eccentric… if harmless”

    Two possibilities, complete lack of social knowledge; or a form of psychological dominance
    General, I go with the latter.

    I wish Albanese would grow some proverbials, or at least get out of this ‘orderly Government playing the long game’ mode and start doing something about these LNP infected appointments and institutions (e.g. Centrelink).

  18. mikehilliard says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:26 pm
    Anyone else having fun getting their director id?

    If I could only give myGovi
    中华人民共和国
    Did mine a few months back. You wanna live overseas! And I thought the paperwork in Asia was tricky.

  19. To paraphrase Morrison’s response:

    I shat myself and did something completely unnecessary and pointless which had the effect of undermining our system of Government and Ministerial accountability.

    So, what’s the problem?

    It wasn’t illegal.

  20. Barney in Cherating says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:34 pm
    To paraphrase Morrison’s response:

    I shat myself and did something completely unnecessary and pointless which had the effect of undermining our system of Government and Ministerial accountability.

    So, what’s the problem?

    It wasn’t illegal.
    中华人民共和国
    You have a great legal mind Barney.

  21. Anything politically on that’s interesting in Oz this weekend? Hope we get a Newspoll Sunday night troops.

  22. I doubt we would have a Newspoll the week of a state election.
    The knicker twisters may have to wait a couple of weeks.

  23. well adam searle could not prevent huussar being managed out she was just as he could not get union support desbite being a industrial barister hopefuly stephinl lawrence proves to be a better mp using his legal skills in the upper house and hopefuly labor has good lower house mps as well mps can be managed out buy head office or losing preselection

  24. searle and secord came in to gether and will leave to searle could be a lawer again but given no union backed him he probaly will not represent unions maybi his mat michael daley ccould give him a real job maybi as his chief of staff to the ag or legal advisor or he could be a judge how ever his no hatsistergos so unlikely

  25. emma hussar is not coming back you would think as a any way searle retired along with secordat least nswhoussos is doing a great job that banks town mp has also been managed out and her response is to leak to murdock khal asfour aligations desbite being a minns backer now he is likely to be premier she is helping perrottit she wants to be like the former vickminister

  26. So Morrison accepts no responsibility for the multiple ministries of his government, unbeknown to the public or his colleagues & claims he co-operated with Bell’s inquiry – he’s lying on both counts. What he did was to attempt to centralise power in a similar manner to that of a tinpot dictator, under the guise of a pandemic & his nutter religion. But his cunning plan was eventually exposed, little wonder he was afforded a state dinner by Trump.

    Had he been cooperative, he would’ve personally appeared before Bell but in lieu, his lawyers (paid for by the taxpayer) did his perfunctory bidding. He won’t be so fortunate at the Robodebt RC, where he’ll have to appear, little doubt afforded with counsel, of the quality of a Walker, a Shellbell.

    Morrison’s exposure as a megalomaniac is indeed pleasing. Hurley has to go too. I mean, fancy ambassadors, et al, obliged to sing…!

  27. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:50 pm
    I doubt we would have a Newspoll the week of a state election.
    The knicker twisters may have to wait a couple of weeks.
    中华人民共和国
    Ah State Election. I forgot. Thanks Cobber. Might get one tonight

  28. its a bit rediculis media are bring up obead any way he has not been a mp since 2011 media seem to have droped the barilarow investigation and john sidoty found guiltty buy icac and ward appear to be running again yet the anti labor likes of alix smith seem not to be mentioning it

  29. poroti says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:39 pm
    Dastardly Dictator Dan doing something right. Squawks from the ‘Santamaria’ wing of the chook yard………………….

    A premier crusade against Christianity

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews runs the most dedicated and consistent anti-Christian government in Australian history.

    GREG SHERIDAN
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Perhaps somebody should inform Sheridan that the churches need no external help when it comes to undermining trust, faith, integrity and credibility. That’s all being undone from inside, everybody else is simply watching with morbid fascination.

  30. ABC Breaking

    “Adam Bandt’s office has confirmed the Greens leader has met with Australian Federal Police to discuss Senator Lidia Thorpe’s undisclosed relationship with a former bikie boss.”

    Isn’t he in isolation with COVID-19? I hope he and/or the AFP were wearing masks etc.

  31. Historyintime. Yes you do start to worry that it will never happen. And, sadly, I suspect it won’t. There will be some movement at the edges but the big fish will remain and eat off the punters. After all there is a reason they are referred to as the establishment.

  32. Former High Court justice Virginia Bell described as “improbable” and “difficult to reconcile” some of Scott Morrison’s versions of the secrecy around his multiple ministries as she sought and failed to get a face-to-face meeting with the former prime minister.

    A press conference and two Facebook posts by Morrison formed the bulk of his assistance to the inquiry despite Bell offering him a three-week window in which to talk directly to her, either in Sydney or his Canberra office.

    Instead, Morrison relied on a solicitor to respond to Bell’s queries, including through a letter this week that warned Bell she would be unable to make any “inferences or conclusions” around national security issues because she would have to rely on incomplete information.

    Bell’s inquiry shows the extent to which she went to hear from Morrison.

    Bell wrote to Morrison on September 19 to “seek his assistance” with the inquiry. She proposed a meeting to hear directly his “account of the facts and circumstances” of his ministerial appointments, saying she could meet him on any date in the three weeks from September 26.
    Loading

    They did not meet

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-lengths-bell-went-to-to-get-morrison-face-to-face-20221125-p5c1ef.html

  33. shellbell says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:21 pm
    Inquiries suck. Unless your counsel assisting you can barely get to ask a question.

    No one keeps Shellbell in the corner.
    中华人民共和国
    I’ve appeared at two inquiries. Wasn’t the main attraction. Nerve wracking enough though. My Counsel never asked me any questions but there was still a big bill at the end.

    It was easy for me as I simply told the truth. Morrison et al may find this difficult.

  34. And despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the likely impact of the government’s IR reform, there are no signs of a wage spiral. Just more hot air and grandstanding from big business and News Corp.

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