Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)

Labor steady federally, Liberal up a little in Tasmania, and Britain’s Tories facing the similar generational challenges to Australia’s.

A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:

• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.

• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:

In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.

MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

800 comments on “Miscellany: federal Morgan, Tasmanian EMRS, British generation gap (open thread)”

Comments Page 9 of 16
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  1. Morrison’s secret ministries ‘fundamentally undermined’ responsible government: Report
    By James Massola

    Former prime minister Scott Morrison’s decision to secretly swear himself in to five extra ministries was “corrosive of trust in government” according to a report handed down by former High Court judge Virginia Bell.

    The review by Bell was ordered by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese after it was revealed in August that Morrison had himself secretly sworn in to administer the departments of treasury, home affairs, health, finance, and industry, science, energy and resources during the last parliament.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-frydenberg-slams-morrison-s-secret-ministries-bill-shorten-calls-for-immediate-investigation-into-coalition-mp-nacc-legislation-clears-first-hurdle-20221124-p5c13j.html#p54d7v

  2. Jaeger says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:26 pm
    A “solution” to Belgium’s cocaine incinerator problem?

    Police in India claim rats ate almost 600kg of confiscated marijuana

    Prosecutors said rodent infestation was an impossible issue to deal with, with a similar case occurring in 2017 when officers claimed 45kg of marijuana was eaten by the cheeky pests.

    Another similar incident earlier this year when police in neighbouring Bihar claimed rodents had drunk nearly one million litres of alcohol kept in storerooms.
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/animals/police-in-india-claim-rats-ate-almost-600kg-of-confiscated-marijuana/news-story/b2228742a64974259ac43088ffb7bc88
    ————————————————————————————-

    In my day the dog just ate my homework.

  4. Jaeger at 12:26 pm

    A “solution” to Belgium’s cocaine incinerator problem?

    Police in India claim rats ate almost 600kg of confiscated marijuana……………Another similar incident earlier this year when police in neighbouring Bihar claimed rodents had drunk nearly one million litres of alcohol kept in storerooms.

    They have issued photographs of a suspect in the heist.

    .

  5. Thanks Cronus, like a moth to the bug zapper my curiosity got the better of me.
    only seconds in i experienced nausea .
    That’s going to take a shit load of red to wash away the taste.

  6. An inquiry into Scott Morrison’s secret ministries by former High Court justice Virginia Bell has recommended laws requiring public notice of the appointment of ministers to an office, after the former prime minister gave himself powers without telling even members of his own cabinet.

    Mr Morrison secretly appointed himself to administer several ministries throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, and in one instance used the powers to overrule a minister in a matter unrelated to the pandemic.

    Ms Bell refuted previous assertions by Mr Morrison that he gave himself the powers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, saying self-appointments to the treasury, home affairs and industry, science, energy and resources portfolio had “little if any connection to the pandemic”.

    She said Mr Morrison had also instructed his department to prepare a brief for his appointment to administer the agriculture, water and environment portfolio, though he decided not to proceed with it.

    However the former justice confirmed Mr Morrison only used his secret powers in one instance — to overrule then-resources minister Keith Pitt to block a petroleum exploration licence, a decision unrelated to COVID-19.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-25/scott-morrison-secret-ministry-inquiry-released/101694156

  7. poroti says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:39 pm

    Jaeger at 12:26 pm

    A “solution” to Belgium’s cocaine incinerator problem?

    Police in India claim rats ate almost 600kg of confiscated marijuana……………Another similar incident earlier this year when police in neighbouring Bihar claimed rodents had drunk nearly one million litres of alcohol kept in storerooms.
    _________________
    I have a suspicion these rodents walk on two legs.

  11. Sam Maiden said this morning to PK and D Speers that Andrews voting early was on advice of the police.

    This suggests there is a credible threat to him.

    Not a surprise with after the lies and vilification by press.

  13. “ Let’s dress up like Crusaders and head off to the Middle East. What a good idea.
    Qatar orders England crusaders to hand over plastic swords”

    Maybe the Qatari police could simply arrange for a meeting between the English Soccer Crusaders – and their plastic awards – and the local Saladin historical re-enactor group: armed with some proper scimitars … Perhaps some genuinely amusing half time entertainment to sooth the parched throats of Wold Cup spectators in the stands …

  16. ”
    Simon Henny Penny Katichsays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:53 pm
    Why should I sing when demand me to sing?

    Sing! Sing! Our show us your ring!
    ”

    Let’s start at the very beginning
    A very good place to start
    When you read, you begin with A-B-C
    When you sing, you begin with Do-Re-Mi
    Do-Re-Mi
    Do-Re-Mi
    The first three notes just happen to be
    Do-Re-Mi
    Do-Re-Mi
    Do-Re-Mi-Fa-So-La-Ti
    Oh, let’s see if I can make it easy
    Do, a deer, a female deer
    Re, a drop of golden sun
    Mi, a name, I call myself
    Fa, a long, long way to run
    So, a needle pulling thread
    La, a note to follow So
    Ti, a drink with jam and bread
    That will bring us back to Do, oh, oh, oh
    Do, a deer, a female deer
    Re, a drop of golden sun
    Mi, a name, I call myself
    Fa, a long, long way to run
    So, a needle pulling thread
    La, a note to follow So
    Ti, a drink with jam and bread
    That will bring us back to Do
    A deer, a female deer
    Re, a drop of golden sun
    Mi, a name, I call myself
    Fa, a long, long way to run
    So, a needle pulling thread
    La, a note to follow So
    Ti, a drink with jam and bread
    That will bring us back to Do
    Do-Re-Mi-Fa-So-La-Ti-Do, So-Do
    Now, children, Do-Re-Mi-Fa-So and so on
    Are only the tools we use to build a song
    Once you have these notes in your heads
    You can sing a million different tunes by mixing them up
    Like this
    So, Do, La, Fa, Mi, Do, Re
    Can you do that? 🙂

  17. Stochastic Terrorism is a thing that will start to happen in Austraila as the right wing starts to find itself stranded without a home.

    The media is helping. They de-platform people like friendlyjordies. And platform people who call for political assination.

  19. Re Cronus @12:31.

    Daniel Andrews’ autocratic style has been terrible for his state. He stretched the bounds of acceptable government in his management of the pandemic and has refused to accept responsibility for clear failings under his watch.”

    I don’t follow Victorian politics closely, but I did see a few of his press conferences during Peak Covid. The Australian has obviously confused Dan Andrews with former Prime Minister Scott Morrison who wouldn’t know responsibility if it leapt out and bit him on the backside. What failings? Maybe the lockdowns lasted a couple of weeks too long? Nothing compared to Morrison’s botching the vaccine rollout. Leaks from hotel quarantine? Well, the Federal Government made no attempt to establish proper quarantine facilities. In default, State authorities had to make do as best they could.

  20. Kelta says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:39 pm
    Thanks Cronus, like a moth to the bug zapper my curiosity got the better of me.
    only seconds in i experienced nausea .
    That’s going to take a shit load of red to wash away the taste.
    —————————————————————————————-

    I knows how ya feel. Who puts that out in the public domain? At best it’s ……… quaint, at worst it’s highly unusual. Not terribly vice regal I wouldn’t have thought. But amusing nonetheless.

  21. The people who were obliged by Hurley & his wife to sing “You are my sunshine” must’ve thought what the fuck have we got here! Since his appointment, this man’s judgment has been very suspect and he should accordingly go, to be replaced by a judge or an academic.

  22. The people who were obliged by Hurley & his wife to sing “You are my sunshine” must’ve thought what the fuck have we got here! Since his appointment, this man’s judgment is very suspect and he should accordingly go, to be replaced by a judge or an academic
    _____
    who is not a religious zealot.

  27. MexB

    The thing i don’t get with Morrison is what was he doing in his secret jobs.

    My guess is that he is a control freak. He wanted to make sure he could overrule his ministers during the election campaign if something got out of hand.

    Also, he would pray for quite a bit of time each day to get his instructions from “god”. He probably thinks god told him to do it.

  28. Mexicanbeemer,
    Probably getting ready for a tilt against him, If you look at the ministries, I could see a situation where Fberg tries a leadership challenge. Scomo dismisses cabinet and then for the next few weeks or months tries to run the country as a one man show with all the proper documentation in place.

    He’s a very fat, lazy, PoS person. And Hurley is a off the walls crazy. I’m surprised the singing stuff hadn’t come out sooner. That shits wildly odd.

  32. It would seem the The Hon Virginia Bell AC had some problems believing/understanding/reconciling quite a few things Mr Morrison has said/done on the matter of his appointments.

  33. frednk at 1:54 pm

    So the Age has thrown in the towel.

    You should have seen their chief editor while they were getting today’s paper ready

  37. My son on what motivated Scott Morrison to take on multiple Ministries:

    ‘Well, he did think he was God’s gift to Australia.’

  39. Hear hear.

    —

    Media analyst

    Imagine the media if a Labor PM secretly seized six ministries and tried to seize a seventh

    They would be forced out of parliament and their party would be tied to it for a decade

    Meanwhile, Morrison has no consequences

    Media bias puts our entire democracy at risk.

  41. Perhaps Scotty was doing his bit for the old Seven Mountains ‘plan’ and ticking ‘government’ off the list.
    .

    Seven Mountains Dominionism is a conservative Christian movement within Pentecostal and evangelical Christianity.

    The seven areas which the movement believe control society and which they seek to control are family, religion, education, media, entertainment, business, and government . They believe that their mission to take over the world is justified by Isaiah 2:2 ………Followers believe that by fulfilling the Seven Mountain Mandate they can bring about the end times.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Mountain_Mandate#:~:text=The%20seven%20areas%20which%20the,entertainment%2C%20business%2C%20and%20government.

  42. [‘PM says pandemic inquiry will take place ‘during this term’ of government.

    Staying with coverage of Anthony Albanese’s press conference for now, and the prime minister has confirmed he intends to stage an inquiry into the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before this term of government ends.

    “We of course are still dealing with COVID-19 and we will make that decision at an appropriate time,” Albanese said.

    “Certainly, [it will happen] at some stage during this term, I’m not talking about putting it off forever.”

    The next federal election will be held during or before 2025.’]

    Excellent! This inquiry will little doubt conclude how useless Morrison & his then ministers were during most of the pandemic.

  43. Steve777 @10.25am
    Put LNP Last.
    Absolutely, as my very extreme left leaning, factory working Grandfather always pronounced, “I don’t care who you put first, but always put the Liberals last!”
    An entreaty and advice I have always followed as a voter.
    I hope that progressive and thoughtful Victorians voting tomorrow may follow that advice, too.
    It doesn’t matter how odious, One Nation, Freedom Party et el may be, the reality is that they will never be in a position to form government, so don’t allow the LNP to gather preferences, and possibly government, by putting these people below the LNP on your ballot paper.

  46. BK

    Dorothy Dixers or not, will Morrison be seated in the Chamber next to Alex Hawke next week to hear them or will an unexpected illness or some such overtake him?

  47. ABC Breaking

    “Adam Bandt’s office has confirmed the Greens leader has met with Australian Federal Police to discuss Senator Lidia Thorpe’s undisclosed relationship with a former bikie boss.”

  49. south at 2:46 pm
    I could imagine Thorpe’s response to Bandt would be, as someone once said, “I’ll rip your bloody arms off”

  50. south says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 2:46 pm
    Upnorth,
    That alone should be enough for Lidia to resign. But Adam is meak, Lidia is a tough bully and nothing will happen.
    中华人民共和国
    I think “Managed Out” is the Pollbludger correct terminology south.

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