A couple of things to be noted as the Victorian election dominates my attention:
• The weekly Roy Morgan video update tells us that federal Labor’s two-party lead is steady at 53.5-46.5, and nothing further.
• The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention gives the Liberals their best result this year, up one to 42% with Labor down two to 29% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Rebecca White is 46-34, little changed from 47-35 in August. The poll was conducted November 8 to 15 from a sample of 1000.
• Something that caught my eye from Charlotte Ivers in Britain’s New Statesman, as it seems more than relevant to Australia:
In 2019 57 per cent of people aged 60-69 voted Tory, but only 23 per cent of people aged 25-29. Of course, it is news to nobody that young people vote Labour and older people vote Conservative. What is alarming Conservative MPs is that the tipping point age at which people become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is going up, and it is going up quickly. Before the 2017 election, research by the Onward think tank found, the tipping point was 34. By 2019 it was 51.
MPs can also tell you why this is. People vote Conservative as they age not because of some innate law, but because ageing has traditionally been associated with the other markers of a Conservative vote: home ownership, a stable job, increased income or capital. It looks like this link is breaking.
Thorpe will be leader of the Greens within a year.
Upnorth @ #453 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 3:01 pm
Don’t expect Rex Douglas to utter those words. He thinks Lidia Thorpe is a rock star and leadership material. 🙄
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/23/miscellany-federal-morgan-tasmanian-emrs-british-generation-gap-open-thread/comment-page-10/#comment-4015998
One sure way to lose lotsa votes
I see the lynch mob are vocal today.
What is Thorpe’s crime exactly ..?
Is there evidence that anything improper actually happened, beyond merely having the relationship and not disclosing it? Specifically thinking of something on par with Gladys’s “I don’t need to know about that bit” remark.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 3:35 pm
I see the lynch mob are vocal today.
What is Thorpe’s crime exactly ..?
中华人民共和国
You have to ask Brandt and the Federal Police. They were the ones doing the answers and questions. Integrity.
If it was Albo being the interviewed by the Federal Cops about a Labor Front Bencher Integrity would be all over it like flies on a sheep’s arse.
“Is there evidence that anything improper actually happened, beyond merely having the relationship and not disclosing it? Specifically thinking of something on par with Gladys’s “I don’t need to know about that bit” remark.”
No, but there’s demonstrated conflicts of interest.
And there’s perceptions of, and potential for, conflicts of interest.
And then there is no conflict or potential for conflict of interest.
It’s best for politicians, public officials (and GGs) to keep in the last category.
@a r being female and left wing, there’s no real need for wrongdoing or evidence against Lidia Thorpe.
Yes, politicians should declare all relationships. But if Thorpe was male and right wing, this story wouldn’t even have run. If she was in Labor, the story would have last a full day before people moved on.
Mexicanbeemer Re: Scotty @ 1.45pm
Scotty was doing what he has done for the past 2o years, or more, absolutely nothing.
Except he was probably hoovering up a half-dozen or more allowances for the Ministries which he was administering.
a r says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 3:35 pm
Is there evidence that anything improper actually happened, beyond merely having the relationship and not disclosing it? Specifically thinking of something on par with Gladys’s “I don’t need to know about that bit” remark.
中华人民共和国
Not sure hey cobber. Public Hearings right.
Rex Douglas @ #457 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 3:35 pm
We don’t know. She’s doing a Morrison and refusing to talk to anyone about it.
Who knows, maybe the couple were assisting the AFP.
All speculation.
Upnorth @ #462 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 2:43 pm
100% yes.
I don’t know of too many female ex bikie leaders, VE.
I see McClymont has come out in support of Shanks. Good on her. Many of her glass jawed colleagues still silent.
well i think the robbert scandle is far worse then thorp i think he should be managed out butaparently thorpes relaetionship with a gang land figure is worse on pb thenusing your power as a mp to help cumpaniews win govermnent contracts that would be labild as ceruption and should be refered to the new anti ceruption body this is wworse then the scandle that forced distyari to resign also michaelia cash ofice refered to police and she is still around we seem to be following the sky news plyaybook of thorpe being the enimy and not the voice reckers in the liberals natts
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 3:45 pm
Who knows, maybe the couple were assisting the AFP.
All speculation.
中华人民共和国
100% cobber. Public Hearings right?
think mor likely david shuebrige wwill be the next leader after bant with thorpe as deputy or steel john will be good after bandt
Yes Aaron the double dolt Stuart Robert should indeed be managed out of politics.
what about that beried story of jason woods links to the migration agent linked to drug dealer well he is semingly close to then national security establishment so the police will egnore him and he can continue but they will target thorp and moslemane a indegines senater and mozlim mp maybi the police are similar to us woods story has disapeared and the thorpe beat up is a cover for robbert imo am not a fan of thorpe think she is to radicle but this is a distraction to defelct from robbert
Aaron newton says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 3:49 pm
well i think the robbert scandle is far worse then thorp i think he should be managed out butaparently thorpes relaetionship with a gang land figure is worse on pb thenusing your power as a mp to help cumpaniews win govermnent contracts that would be labild as ceruption and should be refered to the new anti ceruption body this is wworse then the scandle that forced distyari to resign also michaelia cash ofice refered to police and she is still around we seem to be following the sky news plyaybook of thorpe being the enimy and not the voice reckers in the liberals natts
中华人民共和国
Oh I think Stuart Robert using his power is disgusting. And I have commented on PB about it before.
But we don’t know with Thorpe. Why have Police questioned her and now her leader? Has she passed on sensitive national Security secrets to a Bikie Gang?
Why the cone of silence from the Greens? We need answers on both Robert and Thorpe. They both smell.
The LibLab NACC shouldn’t be geared towards closed hearings. As we’ve seen with the Vic IBAC, leakers and journo’s with agenda’s always create innuendo an unfair slurs.
Thorpe, touted as leader for the Greens? I suppose all things are possible in politics but this must be the longest of bows anyone could draw on the Senator…..Such a move would be akin to political disaster for the Greens…Thorpe is a worthy idealist but appears to be to be a lousy politician………
Honestly, this whole ‘managed out’ palaver has gone on way past its use by date. No one can be ‘managed out’ of politics, as I mentioned when the dolt Rex Douglas started bleating that it should be done to Emma Husar for something she never did but which media line he fell for hook, line and sinker.
Pre-selection is the only way people move in or out of politics. No deus ex machina about it.
There is no specific wrongdoing alleged or in evidence upon the part of Ms Thorpe that I am aware of. The problem is that she failed to disclose a potential conflict of interest. She was in a relationship with a senior member of a bikie gang while serving on a Senate law enforcement committee which was looking into bikie gangs. She should have disclosed the relationship and either resigned from the committee or at least excluded herself from sessions dealing with outlaw motor cycle gangs.
Stuart Robert should already have been out of Parliament on his ear over his past scandals. The fact that he waltzed back into Morrison’s ministry without any of the media saying boo about it was something that rankled a great deal at the time and demonstrated about deeply the media’s commitment to integrity or following up scandals ran – not very much.
The latest allegations will be investigated thoroughly I’m sure. Could be good material for the new Federal ICAC…
Thorpe made a bad mistake by having a serious conflict of interest and not disclosing it or managing it (for example by swapping committees with another Green, which wouldn’t require telling the world why). It’s both more and less serious than Gladys’ case – less serious because she’s a committee member without decision making power, not a State Premier with handing-out-millions-in-cash power, but more serious because matters of security are involved, not just some grant to a local shooting club. On the balance, less serious unless there’s evidence the conflict went beyond appearances and I don’t think she should resign, but it’s ridiculous to say people only care because she’s a woman or only because she’s a Green.
I assume that the Feds are are looking at conspiracy?
”Stuart Robert should already have been out of Parliament on his ear over his past scandals…”
And had he been a Labor minister he would have been hounded day after day by the Noise Machine, a.k.a. the mainstream media, until he resigned from the Parliament.
Wow !
Steve777 @ #477 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 3:59 pm
Should be a simple matter to rule out publicly discussing any matters relating to the Senate law enforcement committee particularly outlaw motor cycle gangs.
After all the greens demand perfection from everyone else?
Thorpe is quite explicit in her pursuit of power. That’s what she wants.
She states this almost every estimates, including last night. “We (I) want power”.
Greens leadership is merely the next step.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 4:06 pm
Wow !
The offshore wind industry has marked a new milestone this week, with the world’s most powerful turbine – a 16MW giant from Goldwind and China Three Gorges – rolling off the production line in east China’s Fujian province.
中华人民共和国
Yes. I know that project. Coking Coal for the steel and Thermal Coal for the Cement. Massive.
Thorpe deserves a medal for exposing Bandt’s hypocrisy and lack of ticker. Thorpe is a natural leader and should just manage Bandt out so that the Greens can get on with the priority of Busting the Indigenous Voice.
Serial sexual harasser Dice Heydon has handed back his gong.
@ a r:
The fact that Thorpe sits (sat?) on the Joint Committee for Law Enforcement whilst in an undisclosed relationship with a bikie leader should itself be cause for a thorough investigation. It’s plainly a conflict of interests – Senator Lidia Thorpe routinely came into possession of privileged information which Citizen Lidia Thorpe’s boyfriend would have gained great benefit from. Hopefully no information was actually passed – if it was, it would be grounds for immediate expulsion from the Committee – but she should still have stood down from the Committee, or at least disclosed her relationship.
I think this is my favourite part of Morrison’s response to the report.
I also note that as Prime Minister my awareness of issues regarding national security and the national interest was broader than that known to individual Ministers and certainly to the Inquiry. This limits the ability for third parties to draw definitive conclusions on such matters.
He knows better than anyone else about….well, everything, and particularly better about everything than Ms Bell.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/25/lesbians-historically-seen-as-fair-game-in-sydney-advocate-tells-gay-hate-inquiry
Respect in the Workplace Bill goes to the Senate.
Well done, Labor!
“You are my sunshine” of contested parentage originating in the deep south of the US. Could be popular amongst Pentecostals.
Starts to look like a shot in the imported culture wars. Plenty of songs from our own musical heritage to choose from if a singalong is really necessary.
How long has this been a secret?
In 2022, tax refunds for Australians with taxable income below $126,000 were expected to be between $675 and $1500—a $420 increase from previous years. The Taking the Pulse of the Nation Survey recently asked Australians how they would spend their expected tax refunds. The survey results indicated that about $515 (48%) of the refund was spent on consumption, $318 (27%) on savings and investment, and $246 (22%) on paying existing debts. We also found that the response to tax refunds varied with income: those with annual taxable income below $32,000 consumed 50 percent more of their refunds than those with annual taxable income above $100,000.
In 2022, Australian tax filers were entitled to about $1,000 in tax refunds. Almost half of the tax refunds were spent within the 3 months following their receipt. This amounts to a half billion dollars put back in the economy per million tax filers (over 10 million people qualify for a refund). This is a relatively small portion of the $100 billion sales that typically occur over a 3-month period in the Australian economy. The spending effect on the economy induced by the refunds is likely to be small.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/tax-rebates-boosted-consumption-for-australians
Pocock/Lambie gonna win…
Kanye ‘Ye’ West continued on his path of complete self-destruction Thursday night, releasing a string of videos including a two-minute campaign promo dissing Donald Trump. The rapper, 45, announced last week that he plans to run for president again in 2024.
“The thing that Trump was most perturbed about [is] me asking him to be my vice president,” Kanye said in one of the videos published on his recently-unlocked Twitter account on Thanksgiving night. “I think that was, like, lower on the list of things that caught him off guard.” “It was the fact that I walked in with intelligence,” he says.
“I also note that as Prime Minister my awareness of issues regarding national security and the national interest was broader than that known to individual Ministers and certainly to the Inquiry. This limits the ability for third parties to draw definitive conclusions on such matters.”
Pathetic.
Even , f relevant he could simply have provided in-camera evidence to the inquiry.
My favourite aspect was the ABC report which started with ‘Speaking through his lawyers, Mr Morrison said…’ There are two prefixes you never want to see in a media report about yourself – ‘Speaking through his lawyers Mr X said…..’ and ‘ Speaking from a psychiatric hospital Mr Y said..’.
“ The release of the report (from former Justice Bell regarding Morrison) was guaranteed to chew up a lot of media space and oxygen that might otherwise be devoted to a late assault on Victorian Labor Premier Dan Andrews, particularly from the News Corp media.”
An unusually poignant comment from Tingle belling the cat (did you see what I did there) on News Corp.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-s-multiple-ministries-fated-to-remain-a-mystery-20221123-p5c0ru
Historyintime says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 4:59 pm
“I also note that as Prime Minister my awareness of issues regarding national security and the national interest was broader than that known to individual Ministers and certainly to the Inquiry. This limits the ability for third parties to draw definitive conclusions on such matters.”
——————————————————————————————-#
Well that certainly fits with Morrison’s comment to Frydenburg that “No one understands what it was like”. Apparently nobody else can ever know nor has the capacity to understand things that only Morrison could ever understand.
Which makes me wonder whether any other leader in the democratic world behaved in such a manner, secretly taking ministries to themselves facing the same pandemic challenges………. anybody?
If the answer is nobody, how would Morrison explain that comparison, particularly given that much of the rest of the world suffered worse during the pandemic?
Boerwar @ #491 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 4:39 pm
Time for David Pocock to step up.
Rex Douglas @ #482 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 4:06 pm
We should be making them here.
The National Interest ALWAYS = Scott Morrison’s personal interests
And for all closet submariners on PB.
“ Taxpayers could pay up to $10 billion for each of Australia’s nuclear submarines, a new report warns, amid the growing likelihood the long-term solution will result in Australia, the US and Britain operating a commonly designed “AUKUS” boat across the three navies.
Multiple defence sources have suggested the government’s nuclear submarine taskforce is coalescing around a two-step approach, with at least two US Virginia class nuclear submarines to be home-ported in Perth in the short-to-medium term until the Australian navy begins to receive its own submarines.”
“ Sources said the possibility of acquiring another conventional submarine to avoid a capability gap between the ageing Collins class fleet of six boats and the delivery of nuclear submarines has all but been ruled out, with the navy not keen.”
As expected, this looks like a fait accompli to me.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/warning-that-nuclear-submarines-could-cost-10b-each-20221124-p5c148
C@tmomma @ #499 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 5:16 pm
Why? China can make them faster, better and cheaper. We could not hope to match them either in speed, quality or cost. Just like solar panels.