Live Commentary
4:15pm In Nevada Senate, Laxalt’s lead down to 48.9-48.0, or just over 8,000 votes, on more mail from Washoe county.
2:19pm It’s looking very good for Dem Kelly in Arizona Senate. He now has a 51.7-46.1 lead after 79% is counted. Maricopa’s votes increased his lead, but mail drop offs still haven’t been counted.
1:52pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in the Nevada Senate race narrows to under 12,700 votes (49.2-47.8) on more counting from Dem Clark county.
12:21pm In the House, Reps now lead by 209-195 per CNN, a 12-seat net gain so far. They now lead in 221 seats to 214 Dem leads after flipping a Dem lead in Colorado’s third district.
11:52am Friday I’m not sure when we’ll get big mail updates from Nevada today. In Arizona, the most populous county, Maricopa, will be releasing new numbers at 2pm AEDT. Dem Kelly currently leads for Senate by 51.5-46.3 with 76% reporting.
5:16pm In the House, CNN has Reps winning by 209-191, and they’ve gained 12 net seats. But this spreadsheet had Reps only leading by 220-215 at 2pm today AEDT counting leads which haven’t been called yet. Despite the narrow current House margin, the Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker currently gives Reps a 6.1% overall lead.
4:57pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in Nevada Senate down to 49.4-47.6, or about 15,800 votes on more late mail. Is there enough late mail for the Dem to overhaul Laxalt?
1:20pm Today’s late mail updates in Arizona have been more favourable for Dems than the overall results in the county they were from. Dem Kelly now leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4 with 76% reporting according to CNN. However, mail dropped off on Election Day instead of posted may boost Reps. In Nevada, Rep Laxalt’s lead for Senate has fallen to 49.6-47.5, a little below 18,000 votes on late mail counting.
9:55am In Nevada, Rep Laxalt leads for Senate by 49.9-47.2 or 22,600 votes. But it looks likely there’s at least 160,000 mail remaining to be counted in Nevada’s two most populous counties, Washoe and Clark, and that mail will probably put the Dem back ahead. In Arizona, the last Election Day votes reduced the Dem Senate lead to 51.2-46.6. We’ll see if late mail helps the Reps.
6:30am Thursday CNN has now called 203 House seats for the Reps and 187 for the Dems, a net gain for Reps of seven seats. With 99% of Election Day precincts reporting in Arizona, Dem Kelly leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4. But there are still lots more late mail to count there. In other developments overnight, Wisconsin’s Senate contest was called for Rep Johnson, and Georgia as going to a Dec 6 runoff.
9:25pm I’ve been writing an article about the US midterm results for The Conversation, but in the meantime Rep Laxalt has overtaken Dem Cortez Masto for Nevada Senate by 49.9-47.2. Dems will hope late mail will give Cortez Masto the win. And in Arizona, Dem Kelly’s lead for Senate has narrowed to 52-46 with 91% of Election Day precincts reporting.
7:43pm In Arizona, Dem Senator Kelly’s lead cut to 53-44 on more Election Day votes. And the race tightens further in Nevada too.
7:30pm Reps are still up five sets net in the House, with eight gains to three for Dems. CNN gives them a 195-176 lead with 218 needed for control. Other US media have called more House races.
7:15pm With 65% counted in Nevada, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 50-47. That lead will shrink as more rurals report, but late mail will help Cortez Masto. A likely Dem HOLD.
6pm In the House, Reps lead by 193-170 with 218 needed for control. But Dems have gained two seats, while Reps have gained seven, for a net gain of five for Reps..
5:17pm With 88% counted in Wisconsin Senate, Rep Johnson’s lead falls back to 50.7-49.1.
5:15pm Pennsylvania has been officially CALLED for Dem Fetterman in the Senate. Dem GAIN
5:08pm Arizona Secretary of State website says 72% of Election Day precincts are already in. Seems like a very good chance for Dem Senator Kelly to hold onto his current 57-41 lead.
4:57pm We finally have some results from Nevada. With 44% in, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 54-43. That includes Clark county, the big Dem stronghold in the south-east, but not much from the Rep landslide rurals or the swing county of Washoe.
4:39pm Dem Warnock back ahead in Georgia Senate by 49.1-48.8 with 93% in. Remember the runoff if nobody gets 50%.
4:26pm In Kentucky, the “no” vote against a constitutional amendment banning abortion is leading 52-48 with 80% counted, even as the Rep Senator Paul won a blowout with 61%.
4:15pm In Wisconsin Senate with 80% counted, Rep Johnson leads Dem Barnes by 51.5-48.3. I’m not sure if late mail can snatch that lead back.
4:07pm With 91% counted in Georgia, Rep Walker leads by 49.1-48.8 with 2.0% for a Libertarian. Remember that if nobody gets at least 50% in Georgia, it goes to a Dec 6 runoff.
4:03pm Nate Cohn on Twitter. This would be a Dem Senate GAIN
3:50pm In the House Reps still lead by 179-146 according to CNN and have gained five seats. The 538 live blog says that some House seats that were expected to go to Reps have been retained by Dems.
3:35pm CNN has also called Washington for Dem Murray, a Dem Senate HOLD. Reps have held Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.
3:33pm CNN has CALLED New Hampshire for Dem Maggie Hassan, who leads by 55-43 with 60% in. That’s Dem Senate HOLD.
3:14pm Dems have GAINED two governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts after moderate Rep governors of those states retired. Reps have easily held their big states of Florida and Texas, while Dems will hold New York and California.
2:40pm Nate Cohn tweets that Dem Fetterman is doing better than Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Biden won by 1.2%, so that points to a Dem GAIN in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.
2:18pm In the House, Reps have made five gains according to CNN, and lead by 147-82 so far. But Dems have held their two marginal seats in Virginia.
2:13pm The early mail in Arizona has come in, and Dem Kelly leads by 56-41 with 41% in for the Senate. But Election Day turnout was very good for Reps in Arizona.
2:02pm In Iowa Senate, the Dem has a 13 point lead with 27% in. Iowa is another state where early vote is counted first, and Election Day should allow the Rep to win easily.
1:50pm Dem Bennett has been CALLED the winner in Colorado Senate, a HOLD for the Dems. He leads by 19% with 48% counted. Meanwhile Dem Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania Senate narrows to 10% with 32% in, and Dem Barnes is leading in Wisconsin by 2% with 28% in.
1:18pm Dem Warnock has recovered the lead in Georgia Senate by 51.3-46.9 with 64% in.
1:14pm And in Ohio with 44% counted, Rep Vance is now only just behind Dem Ryan for Senate 50.1-49.8. Projection: Vance overtakes Ryan and Reps easily HOLD Ohio Senate.
1:10pm In North Carolina, Rep Budd has overtaken Dem Beasley by 49.2-48.8 with 68% in. Budd will go on to win as Election Day votes now dominate. Projection: Rep HOLD North Carolina Senate.
1:06pm In Georgia, Rep Walker has just overtaken Dem Warnock and leads by 51.5-46.7 with 61% in. Warnock may recover with more counting from urban Georgia.
12:51pm With 51% counted in Georgia, Dem Senator Warnock’s lead narrows to 50-48. Meanwhile, Rep Governor Kemp is leading by 52-47.
12:34pm With 14% counted in New Hampshire, Dem Hassan leads by 61-38.
12:31pm Dems are well ahead currently in Senate contests for Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. But these reflect early votes, and leads will narrow or be overturned once Election Day votes report.
12:16pm In fact there are now three Rep projected House GAINS from the Dems just in Florida.
12:13pm And in more good news for Reps in Florida, they GAIN the fourth House district from the Dems.
12:09pm In Florida, Rep Senator Marco Rubio and Rep Governor Ron DeSantis are projected winners with Rubio leading by 12 points and DeSantis by 16. That’s with 72% counted, and Election Day votes will make Florida even more Rep. Miami Dade county in the south, which voted heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016, has been won by both Reps.
12:03pm In North Carolina’s Senate contest, the Dem leads by 54-44 with 45% in. But that’s early vote, and Election Day will favour the Reps.
11:53am In Virginia’s 10th House district, the Dem incumbent has a 52.5-47.4 lead over the Rep with 53% in.
11:45am In Georgia’s Senate contest, Dem Warnock leads Rep Walker by 56-42 with 29% in. That lead will narrow as more Election Day votes are counted.
9:45am Wednesday In many US states, voters register as either Dem, Rep or Nonpartisan/Other. Localities in some of these states report Election Day turnout throughout the day. There’s HEAVY Rep turnout that isn’t being matched by the Dems, and is overwhelming Dem early vote leads. This is pointing to an ugly result for the Dems today, with Reps overperforming their polls.
I have a one hour appointment at 10:30am. We’ll see how early results are looking when I return at 11:30am.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
I covered the US midterm elections for The Conversation on Monday; polls close from late Wednesday morning AEDT. The final FiveThirtyEight forecasts give Republicans a 59% chance to win the Senate (54% Monday) and an 84% chance to win the House (83% Monday). The section below has been copied from The Conversation article.
Poll closing times
I will focus here on the close Senate races that are within five points in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregates. All times are Wednesday AEDT. The first US polls close at 10am in the eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana; Republicans will win both states easily.
Georgia will be the first state with a close Senate race to close its polls at 11am, then North Carolina closes at 11:30am. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will both close at 12pm. Polls in Wisconsin and Arizona will close at 1pm, with Nevada closing at 2pm. Polls in the Pacific coast states close at 3pm, with the final polls closing at 5pm in Alaska’s western time zone. Poll closing times are derived from The Green Papers’ list, with 11 hours added to UTC/GMT.
Counting will usually take at least several hours after polls close, and in close contests we may have to wait days or even weeks for an outcome. Exit polls will be released once all polls in a state are closed, but are unreliable.
In Georgia’s Senate contest, there will be a December 6 runoff if neither major party candidate clears 50% on Tuesday. There is a third party Libertarian candidate who could prevent this.
In some states, early counting is likely to skew Republican, as Election Day votes are counted first. In other states, Democratic-leaning mail will be counted first, so their early counts will skew to Democrats.
Israeli near final results
Final results of the November 1 Israeli election will be declared Wednesday, but are nearly complete now. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties won 64 of the 120 Knesset seats (up 12 since the March 2021 election). Netanyahu’s Likud won 32 seats (up two), the far-right Religious Zionists 14 (up eight) and the religious Shas 11 (up two) and UTJ seven (steady). The Religious Zionists are now the third biggest party.
If two parties had made the 3.25% threshold, Netanyahu would have been short of a majority. But Meretz, which has represented Israel’s left, was knocked out with 3.16%, losing all its six seats, while the Arab Balad had 2.90%. In a mark of Israel’s right-wing shift, Labor won just 3.7% and four seats (down three). Labor was once a major party of government in Israel.
Danish election and UK polls
The Danish election was also held November 1. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party (the Moderates) won the remaining 16 seats. The left retained office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.
Two weeks after Rishi Sunak became Britain’s new PM, polls have stabilised at a large Labour lead after Sunak made gains in his first week. In nine UK national polls taken since November 1, Labour has led by 18 to 26 points. On November 17, the government will deliver another budget after the collapse of the September 23 attempt; this is likely to include tax rises and spending cuts.
Latest Georgia Senate numbers:
Warnock(D) : Walker(R)
49.1 : 49.2
Their abc says top issue is “inflation” fuck!
Twitter is leaving misinformation online, watchdog says.
davo says:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 1:03 pm
Their abc says top issue is “inflation” fuck!
——————–
Its not surprising when America has inflation at 8%.
It may do but De Kalb County in Metro Atlanta has only 7% reporting, it’s still far too close to call and will probably go to a runoff election.
I think as important and I should have said this prior is the divide on absentees and mail in votes favouring Democrats and on the day votes favouring Republicans will also be pivotal here.
A huge bundle of dem votes just dropped in Georgia: lead now back up to over 100K.
Unfortunately the republicans are now ahead in North Carolina and Vance has all but caught up in Ohio.
The Pennsylvania vote had stalled, but is now running again and Oz seems to be steadily closing the gap to Fetterman.
One of my sons lives in Maryland 🙂
Maryland Democrats, shut out of the governor’s mansion the last eight years, have swept back into power and in the process broke the color barrier by electing the state’s first ever Black chief executive.
Wes Moore, a charismatic best-selling author and former head of the anti-poverty organization Robin Hood, becomes only the third Black elected governor in this nation’s history.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/maryland-governor-results-2022-wes-moore-00065789
Again… the vote counts are not linear, especially at the state level.
We just have to wait and trust the analysis based on
– what vote is out
– where it’s from
– what kind of vote it is
Vance now ahead in Ohio. With 45% of the votes counted.
Warnock seems to be doing very well at this phase of the count in Georgia (just over half counted). … Interesting.
I recall that the dems were competitive in the early count in Ohio (but not 12 points ahead like today) only to get smashed in the second half. 🙁
Still only 14% of the Pennsylvania voted counted. Early days …
North Carolina is firming for the Republicans in the last third of the count. Which I recall was similiar to 2020, but the dems ARE seemingly closer at this point so … still a toss up?
So far:
1) Status quo in the Senate….. Good news
2) Republicans gain only 2 seats in the House, they need 8….. Good news
3) Democrats gain 2 governors…. Good news
MAGArmageddon nowhere to be seen…. Keep counting!
🙂
There’s a freak-out brewing at my house
My house
”
Simon Katichsays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 1:00 pm
Ven @ #91 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 12:23 pm
Are we freaking out?
Start the car!
”
A-E sat in the car but hasn’t fastened the belt yet. 🙂
”
Alposays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 1:30 pm
So far:
1) Status quo in the Senate….. Good news
2) Republicans gain only 2 seats in the House, they need 8….. Good news
3) Democrats gain 2 governors…. Good news
MAGArmageddon nowhere to be seen…. Keep counting!
”
No red wave yet but Adrian Beaumont seems to be bit gung ho about Republican party chances as of now.
To be honest Republican party is doing well in Florida and Virginia, where they picked up 3 races as of now.
Not that it matters
Fun fact: On Election Night in 2010, NBC News projected by 9 pm that Republicans had won the House.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1590173760367497217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590173760367497217%7Ctwgr%5Ebebb5b39d1ba2e9c87e8e8090dfd8a3274bdfe44%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2022%2F11%2F8%2F2134554%2F-Live-coverage-Election-night-2022
Walker 1000 votes ahead in Georgia 🙁
Seemingly headed for a runoff race with 74% of the votes counted. Unless there is some late – 2020 style swings due to postals and/or some massively sized down down and black Atlanta precincts still to report in.
Walker leading Warnock 49.1 to 49.0 with 76 % votes counted.
FUn facts?,
Ketanji Brown was appointed on a 47-53 vote.
Samuel Alito is 72 yo
Clarence Thomas is 74 yo
Average male life expectancy in US is 77 (you’d expect judges to out do this)
The senate composition is 50-50
The last time a Democrat POTUS nominated a SCOTUS appt with a Republican controlled senate was 2016 (Merrick Garland). Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to consider the nomination.
The last time Democrat appointees had a majority in SCOTUS was 1970 (although that didnt stop Roe v Wade)
SCOTUS currently sits at 6 (GOP nom) -3 (Dem nom).
And…. finally…. the 2024 senate election year is not great for the Democrats.
Something Daft definitely playing in my house.
It’s not 76% of the vote, it’s 76% of precincts… and mail-ins etc are counted beyond 100% since they don’t come from polling-places.
Short of a miracle, GA was always going to a run-off.
Most of the remaining Georgia votes are in Atlanta –
Are we all assuming that the republicans will boil over in Iowa and Wisconsin in the second half of the senate race count? Dems are comfortably ahead in each at the moment. …
If IA happens, then all bets are off, lol. WI had the potential to be close, it will be kind of close, but expect Johnson will win by 2-3%.
Still undecided Senate races:
Good news for the Democrats in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa.
Good news for the Republicans in North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio and Georgia…
This will be decided by the results in the West (which haven’t started counting yet).
Casey DeSantis presents well.
“ Most of the remaining Georgia votes are in Atlanta –”
Is there a site that has a county by county / precinct by precinct breakdown of votes this time? I cant find one.
Nytimes has got the lot A/E
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate.html
Nevada (my biggest fear of all the D Senate races) is looking like it MIGHT be the fly in the ointment for the Dems and put HUGE pressure on the GA run-off.
538 pic re Georgia and remaining votes
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348787/
Found an interactive map on CNN.
Interestingly, the Atlanta counties do not appear to be lagging behind the state count by very much at this stage.
Equally fascinating is Pennsylvania. Fetterman got off to a huge lead early – probably on the back of an early Pittsburg count, but then Oz has closed the gap to around 6 points BUT nearly all of his rural/small town county vote is in AND most of the huuuge Philadelphia urban vote remains outstanding (what has been counted thus far favours Fetterman by around 80%).
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 2:02 pm
Are we all assuming that the republicans will boil over in Iowa and Wisconsin in the second half of the senate race count? Dems are comfortably ahead in each at the moment. …
”
If Dems win Iowa and Wisconsin Senate seats, Dems can win House of representatives. Why? They will win seats which they are not supposed to win if there is Red wave.
My only concern is currently Repugs have won 147 seats to 83 Dems seats in HOR.
Exciting race in Georgia…. Republicans only marginally ahead: 49.3% vs 48.8%, and still 45.5% of votes to be counted….
Ven when the west coast polls close there will be a heap of Dem House seats automatically called.
Walker now has his biggest lead of the night: ~8000 votes with 79% counted. Unless there is a big bunch of democrats postals out there I reckon we are hading for a run-off with both candidates receiving about equal votes in this round.
Nate Silver just posted that betting markets have Democrats v slightly ahead in Senate.
“Vensays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 2:19 pm
My only concern is currently Repugs have won 147 seats to 83 Dems seats in HOR.”…
What matters is how many new seats they have won, and so far it doesn’t look like that those new seats are enough to win. In any event, The Guardian is giving 86 seats Republicans vs 48 Democrats, so far, with the Reps. getting 2 new seats.
There’s about 500k votes outstanding (estimated) in and around Atlanta.
GA is will certainly go to run-off, but I expect Warnock will probaby be ahead.
Walker out to 21000 votes BUT the big four democrat counties in the Atlanta metropolitan area haven’t reported in the last half an hour or so: still 30% of the vote to be counted there (as opposed to 81% counted overall in the state). Walker about to run out of votes? Probably. BUT will that 30%, plus postals be enough to get Warnock over 50% and hence avoid a run-off?
OMG! MSNBC is now speculating that Lauren Boebert might LOSE her seat! Guess Michael Bennett of Colorado has some LONG coattails!
“Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 2:09 pm
538 pic re Georgia and remaining votes
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348787/“…
Atlanta is floating in a Blue Lake…. looking forward to see the final result there.
Looks like the predicted red wave won’t be happening, though such are the margins in the House that the GOP might yet get just enough for a majority (but given the feral nature of much of their caucus, it’s hard to see them united on much besides tax cuts). Looking promising for the Dems in the Senate, and my guess is that they will just do enough to hold on to control of that chamber. But it might not last long as the 2024 Senate map is a horror one for the Dems.
One interesting side story to this election is how the overall electoral map seems to have shifted Right. When Obama won in 2008, states like Florida, Iowa and Ohio were most definitely swing states, whereas now they are solidly in the red column, and the Rust Belt states were very much still part of the Blue Wall and they are now swing states. The only state that’s really gone in the opposite direction to become a reliably Democratic state is Virginia, though states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are edging that way.
I do think Warnock winning outright is more likely than Walker doing so, which isn’t brave given what’s out and where.
PA Governor called for the D, he’s running about four points ahead of Fetterman, but based on key counties, I expect Fetterman will get up in PA.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 2:24 pm
Walker now has his biggest lead of the night: ~8000 votes with 79% counted. Unless there is a big bunch of democrats postals out there I reckon we are hading for a run-off with both candidates receiving about equal votes in this round.
”
About 26% of postal to be counted. In postal vote Warnock leads by 36.9%>
Democrats only win because they cheat. Simple as that.
”
Danielsays:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Democrats only win because they cheat. Simple as that.
”
LOL Daniel.
Daniel @ #143 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 2:07 pm
Walker should be a sho-in then. He cheated on his wife for 6 years. Thats gotta count for something, right?
Watching carefully for this shift. So far Dem lead has only extended (down the ticket too) at 51% in. Important races these.
Dems have flipped OH-01. First R -> D gain… not something the GOP can afford.
The Dems have also flipped OH-13… this really isn’t a good time for the GOP… lol
johnson just hit the lead in Wisconsin:(
Still over 30% of the vote outstanding in the big 4 democrat favoured counties surrounding Atlanta (but Walkers lead is around 44K).
Most of the vote from Philly not reporting in Pennsylvania (but Fetterman is down to only a 3% lead).
Nevada not counting yet.
If the Dem is up by 3 before Philadelphia reports, the D is going to win. Georgia still looks solid.
Fulton county just dropped a big bunch of votes for Warnock, but that didn’t really move the dial much overall. Walker still 30K+ lead.
Fetterman’ s lead over Oz is down to around 1% / 50K votes, BUT Philly yet to drop in.