US midterm elections live

Republicans will probably win both chambers of Congress, though the Senate is much closer. Live commentary from late Wednesday morning.

Live Commentary

4:15pm In Nevada Senate, Laxalt’s lead down to 48.9-48.0, or just over 8,000 votes, on more mail from Washoe county.

2:19pm It’s looking very good for Dem Kelly in Arizona Senate. He now has a 51.7-46.1 lead after 79% is counted. Maricopa’s votes increased his lead, but mail drop offs still haven’t been counted.

1:52pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in the Nevada Senate race narrows to under 12,700 votes (49.2-47.8) on more counting from Dem Clark county.

12:21pm In the House, Reps now lead by 209-195 per CNN, a 12-seat net gain so far. They now lead in 221 seats to 214 Dem leads after flipping a Dem lead in Colorado’s third district.

11:52am Friday I’m not sure when we’ll get big mail updates from Nevada today. In Arizona, the most populous county, Maricopa, will be releasing new numbers at 2pm AEDT. Dem Kelly currently leads for Senate by 51.5-46.3 with 76% reporting.

5:16pm In the House, CNN has Reps winning by 209-191, and they’ve gained 12 net seats. But this spreadsheet had Reps only leading by 220-215 at 2pm today AEDT counting leads which haven’t been called yet. Despite the narrow current House margin, the Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker currently gives Reps a 6.1% overall lead.

4:57pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in Nevada Senate down to 49.4-47.6, or about 15,800 votes on more late mail. Is there enough late mail for the Dem to overhaul Laxalt?

1:20pm Today’s late mail updates in Arizona have been more favourable for Dems than the overall results in the county they were from. Dem Kelly now leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4 with 76% reporting according to CNN. However, mail dropped off on Election Day instead of posted may boost Reps. In Nevada, Rep Laxalt’s lead for Senate has fallen to 49.6-47.5, a little below 18,000 votes on late mail counting.

9:55am In Nevada, Rep Laxalt leads for Senate by 49.9-47.2 or 22,600 votes. But it looks likely there’s at least 160,000 mail remaining to be counted in Nevada’s two most populous counties, Washoe and Clark, and that mail will probably put the Dem back ahead. In Arizona, the last Election Day votes reduced the Dem Senate lead to 51.2-46.6. We’ll see if late mail helps the Reps.

6:30am Thursday CNN has now called 203 House seats for the Reps and 187 for the Dems, a net gain for Reps of seven seats. With 99% of Election Day precincts reporting in Arizona, Dem Kelly leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4. But there are still lots more late mail to count there. In other developments overnight, Wisconsin’s Senate contest was called for Rep Johnson, and Georgia as going to a Dec 6 runoff.

9:25pm I’ve been writing an article about the US midterm results for The Conversation, but in the meantime Rep Laxalt has overtaken Dem Cortez Masto for Nevada Senate by 49.9-47.2. Dems will hope late mail will give Cortez Masto the win. And in Arizona, Dem Kelly’s lead for Senate has narrowed to 52-46 with 91% of Election Day precincts reporting.

7:43pm In Arizona, Dem Senator Kelly’s lead cut to 53-44 on more Election Day votes. And the race tightens further in Nevada too.

7:30pm Reps are still up five sets net in the House, with eight gains to three for Dems. CNN gives them a 195-176 lead with 218 needed for control. Other US media have called more House races.

7:15pm With 65% counted in Nevada, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 50-47. That lead will shrink as more rurals report, but late mail will help Cortez Masto. A likely Dem HOLD.

6pm In the House, Reps lead by 193-170 with 218 needed for control. But Dems have gained two seats, while Reps have gained seven, for a net gain of five for Reps..

5:17pm With 88% counted in Wisconsin Senate, Rep Johnson’s lead falls back to 50.7-49.1.

5:15pm Pennsylvania has been officially CALLED for Dem Fetterman in the Senate. Dem GAIN

5:08pm Arizona Secretary of State website says 72% of Election Day precincts are already in. Seems like a very good chance for Dem Senator Kelly to hold onto his current 57-41 lead.

4:57pm We finally have some results from Nevada. With 44% in, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 54-43. That includes Clark county, the big Dem stronghold in the south-east, but not much from the Rep landslide rurals or the swing county of Washoe.

4:39pm Dem Warnock back ahead in Georgia Senate by 49.1-48.8 with 93% in. Remember the runoff if nobody gets 50%.

4:26pm In Kentucky, the “no” vote against a constitutional amendment banning abortion is leading 52-48 with 80% counted, even as the Rep Senator Paul won a blowout with 61%.

4:15pm In Wisconsin Senate with 80% counted, Rep Johnson leads Dem Barnes by 51.5-48.3. I’m not sure if late mail can snatch that lead back.

4:07pm With 91% counted in Georgia, Rep Walker leads by 49.1-48.8 with 2.0% for a Libertarian. Remember that if nobody gets at least 50% in Georgia, it goes to a Dec 6 runoff.

4:03pm Nate Cohn on Twitter. This would be a Dem Senate GAIN

3:50pm In the House Reps still lead by 179-146 according to CNN and have gained five seats. The 538 live blog says that some House seats that were expected to go to Reps have been retained by Dems.

3:35pm CNN has also called Washington for Dem Murray, a Dem Senate HOLD. Reps have held Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

3:33pm CNN has CALLED New Hampshire for Dem Maggie Hassan, who leads by 55-43 with 60% in. That’s Dem Senate HOLD.

3:14pm Dems have GAINED two governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts after moderate Rep governors of those states retired. Reps have easily held their big states of Florida and Texas, while Dems will hold New York and California.

2:40pm Nate Cohn tweets that Dem Fetterman is doing better than Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Biden won by 1.2%, so that points to a Dem GAIN in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

2:18pm In the House, Reps have made five gains according to CNN, and lead by 147-82 so far. But Dems have held their two marginal seats in Virginia.

2:13pm The early mail in Arizona has come in, and Dem Kelly leads by 56-41 with 41% in for the Senate. But Election Day turnout was very good for Reps in Arizona.

2:02pm In Iowa Senate, the Dem has a 13 point lead with 27% in. Iowa is another state where early vote is counted first, and Election Day should allow the Rep to win easily.

1:50pm Dem Bennett has been CALLED the winner in Colorado Senate, a HOLD for the Dems. He leads by 19% with 48% counted. Meanwhile Dem Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania Senate narrows to 10% with 32% in, and Dem Barnes is leading in Wisconsin by 2% with 28% in.

1:18pm Dem Warnock has recovered the lead in Georgia Senate by 51.3-46.9 with 64% in.

1:14pm And in Ohio with 44% counted, Rep Vance is now only just behind Dem Ryan for Senate 50.1-49.8. Projection: Vance overtakes Ryan and Reps easily HOLD Ohio Senate.

1:10pm In North Carolina, Rep Budd has overtaken Dem Beasley by 49.2-48.8 with 68% in. Budd will go on to win as Election Day votes now dominate. Projection: Rep HOLD North Carolina Senate.

1:06pm In Georgia, Rep Walker has just overtaken Dem Warnock and leads by 51.5-46.7 with 61% in. Warnock may recover with more counting from urban Georgia.

12:51pm With 51% counted in Georgia, Dem Senator Warnock’s lead narrows to 50-48. Meanwhile, Rep Governor Kemp is leading by 52-47.

12:34pm With 14% counted in New Hampshire, Dem Hassan leads by 61-38.

12:31pm Dems are well ahead currently in Senate contests for Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. But these reflect early votes, and leads will narrow or be overturned once Election Day votes report.

12:16pm In fact there are now three Rep projected House GAINS from the Dems just in Florida.

12:13pm And in more good news for Reps in Florida, they GAIN the fourth House district from the Dems.

12:09pm In Florida, Rep Senator Marco Rubio and Rep Governor Ron DeSantis are projected winners with Rubio leading by 12 points and DeSantis by 16. That’s with 72% counted, and Election Day votes will make Florida even more Rep. Miami Dade county in the south, which voted heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016, has been won by both Reps.

12:03pm In North Carolina’s Senate contest, the Dem leads by 54-44 with 45% in. But that’s early vote, and Election Day will favour the Reps.

11:53am In Virginia’s 10th House district, the Dem incumbent has a 52.5-47.4 lead over the Rep with 53% in.

11:45am In Georgia’s Senate contest, Dem Warnock leads Rep Walker by 56-42 with 29% in. That lead will narrow as more Election Day votes are counted.

9:45am Wednesday In many US states, voters register as either Dem, Rep or Nonpartisan/Other. Localities in some of these states report Election Day turnout throughout the day. There’s HEAVY Rep turnout that isn’t being matched by the Dems, and is overwhelming Dem early vote leads. This is pointing to an ugly result for the Dems today, with Reps overperforming their polls.

I have a one hour appointment at 10:30am. We’ll see how early results are looking when I return at 11:30am.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

I covered the US midterm elections for The Conversation on Monday; polls close from late Wednesday morning AEDT. The final FiveThirtyEight forecasts give Republicans a 59% chance to win the Senate (54% Monday) and an 84% chance to win the House (83% Monday). The section below has been copied from The Conversation article.

Poll closing times

I will focus here on the close Senate races that are within five points in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregates. All times are Wednesday AEDT. The first US polls close at 10am in the eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana; Republicans will win both states easily.

Georgia will be the first state with a close Senate race to close its polls at 11am, then North Carolina closes at 11:30am. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will both close at 12pm. Polls in Wisconsin and Arizona will close at 1pm, with Nevada closing at 2pm. Polls in the Pacific coast states close at 3pm, with the final polls closing at 5pm in Alaska’s western time zone. Poll closing times are derived from The Green Papers’ list, with 11 hours added to UTC/GMT.

Counting will usually take at least several hours after polls close, and in close contests we may have to wait days or even weeks for an outcome. Exit polls will be released once all polls in a state are closed, but are unreliable.

In Georgia’s Senate contest, there will be a December 6 runoff if neither major party candidate clears 50% on Tuesday. There is a third party Libertarian candidate who could prevent this.

In some states, early counting is likely to skew Republican, as Election Day votes are counted first. In other states, Democratic-leaning mail will be counted first, so their early counts will skew to Democrats.

Israeli near final results

Final results of the November 1 Israeli election will be declared Wednesday, but are nearly complete now. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties won 64 of the 120 Knesset seats (up 12 since the March 2021 election). Netanyahu’s Likud won 32 seats (up two), the far-right Religious Zionists 14 (up eight) and the religious Shas 11 (up two) and UTJ seven (steady). The Religious Zionists are now the third biggest party.

If two parties had made the 3.25% threshold, Netanyahu would have been short of a majority. But Meretz, which has represented Israel’s left, was knocked out with 3.16%, losing all its six seats, while the Arab Balad had 2.90%. In a mark of Israel’s right-wing shift, Labor won just 3.7% and four seats (down three). Labor was once a major party of government in Israel.

Danish election and UK polls

The Danish election was also held November 1. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party (the Moderates) won the remaining 16 seats. The left retained office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.

Two weeks after Rishi Sunak became Britain’s new PM, polls have stabilised at a large Labour lead after Sunak made gains in his first week. In nine UK national polls taken since November 1, Labour has led by 18 to 26 points. On November 17, the government will deliver another budget after the collapse of the September 23 attempt; this is likely to include tax rises and spending cuts.

578 comments on “US midterm elections live”

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  1. US mid-term elections:

    In normal circumstances, I would be “just worried” if the Dems risk to lose to the Reps, but with mad Trump and his bunch of demented MAGAs around, the situation is extremely critical and utterly scary. If the Reps win, that will give a massive boost to Trump to run again in two-year time…. Can you imagine what would happen to the USA and the world if he is re-elected POTUS?

    The US are risking to collapse…. and Putin couldn’t be happier!

    I hope that the predictions are wrong, but if they are not, then I can only conclude that Moronism reigns supreme in the USA!

  2. It’s not looking good, is it? I doubt it’s going to be a disaster for the Democrats or anything, just the standard midterm backlash that most incumbents get. But let’s be real: if the GOP retakes either house, there goes Biden’s hopes of passing much of anything in the next two years.

    Mind you, a strong Republican result tomorrow doesn’t tell us much about how things will go in 2024, apart from demonstrating that they can still be electoral competetive despite the absolute lunatics that make up much of the party these days.

  3. Very confident of a blue wave.

    Increased numbers in both houses for the Democrats.

    All current polling figures biased by Republican supporting billionares paying for polling methods that boost Republican votes, skewing the overall picture.

    Don’t say you weren’t told.

  4. Been There:

    Nate Silver doesn’t believe there’s much evidence of polling bias:

    Mind you, he does also make the point that the closeness of many key races also means that an ordinary polling error in either direction could result in a landslide or a thrashing for either side.

    So you may well be proved right in your predictions of a blue wave (I sure hope so!), but if that’s the case I think it will be the result of a legitimate poll failure rather than intentional biased polls.

  5. Should the GOP secure both Houses two years of brutal obstructionism may not set them up too well for 2024 although blatant gerrymandering and alternative slates/partisan State legislatures may offset any gains the Dems might make.

  6. Read in the financial review that since 1934 the average seat lost has been 28 house seats and that’s about what i think the Republicans will pick up but the senate looks a toss up.

  7. What is the betting that if the (former) GOP wins both Houses the 2020 election result will be set aside and Trump appointed ruler for life

    The administrative appointments including to the Courts then rubber stamping

    And there will be a succession plan for when Trump is no longer amongst us (so family)

    MAGA (noting the USA is a declining World power, being overtaken by China economically and, of course, the USA has never won a War – not even a Civil War) from what exactly?

    And to where?

    The USA is not a super power – it is a joke

    The USA can not even win its proxy Wars with North Korea and Russia

    Whilst its military sit off the coast of China and otherwise look to contain China by engaging the likes of Australia, India and Japan with only limited success

    Replicating NATO on the Russian border

    Then again Trump gets on well with Putin

    No surprise there

    Now for the next Civil War in the USA as the Democrat strongholds, so the likes of New York as an example, rail against and split from the Trump dictatorship

    The Woodward interview this evening was telling and identified the danger the USA is to the World

  8. Should the GOP secure both Houses two years of brutal obstructionism may not set them up too well for 2024 although blatant gerrymandering and alternative slates/partisan State legislatures may offset any gains the Dems might make.

    Agree on both counts.

    It’s quite possible that a GOP victory sees them way overplay their hand with constant obstruction, shutdowns, and impeachment attempts, giving the Democrats an easy target to blame for what are likely to be continually deteriorating economic conditions.

  9. What is the betting that if the (former) GOP wins both Houses the 2020 election result will be set aside and Trump appointed ruler for life

    I’m pretty certain congress does not have the power to invalidate election results that have already been certified.

    There will definitely be at least one attempt to impeach Biden, however, though there’s surely no way they would have anything close to the numbers for a conviction.

    But if Biden or another Democrat wins the presidency in 2024 and the GOP still holds both houses? All bets are off then, I reckon.

  10. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:16 pm
    Read in the financial review that since 1934 the average seat lost has been 28 house seats and that’s about what i think the Republicans will pick up but the senate looks a toss up.

    Since 1934 or even earlier, people like Donald Trump were weeded out in the primaries.
    But in 2016 he won the Presidential election due electoral college and got 74 million votes in 2020 (11 million more votes than 2016) after the atrocious things he committed culminating in January 6th subversion.
    So nothing in US is normal or average anymore.

  11. 538 does have some good insight on the races.

    I’ll add Alaska and Utah to my Senate seat watch list. Utah [R Held] being Rep vs Ind, with the Dems not running and throwing their weight behind the Ind campaign. More interested in this one purely as it’s a non-classical [ie Rep vs Dem] contest.
    Alaska, while Rep held, is a contest really of Rep vs Rep, the incumbent from the more moderate faction with the main challenger from a more conservative faction. While Reps could overall gain control of senate, Alaska could also determine how friendly that Senate is to a Rep supporting Dem agendas. (Alaska Senate races of 2010 and 2016 were amazing in themselves, 2010 with Lisa, current incumbent, winning as a write-in candidate and 2016 with Libertarian scoring their best ever % of vote [since beaten once] in a Senate race.)

    I also find it amazing how varying the electoral systems used across USA are. Only 4 candidates are on the official ballot for the Alaska Senate race, as the top 4 vote share from the pre-election election to whittle down the list from 19 candidates. Compare to Louisiana Senate (Rep-John Kennedy) race which will have 13 candidates on the ballot, and if none make majority, the run-off election of Top 2 next month.

    Main races I’ll watch for Senate are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania (with aforementioned Alaska and Utah).

  12. And for those interested in contests outside Rep&Dem, unfortunately nothing national offers real pickings. Although state level might.

    Oregon Gubernatorial is interesting as it’s basically a toss-up between Dem and Rep candidates but an Ind is polling well that could take votes from both sides, making this one hard to pick.

    Alaska Gubernatorial looks like Rep hold with the left vote splitting between a Dem and an Ind who was a former Rep but served from 2014-2018 as an Ind Governor. Could be interesting to see how that plays out nevertheless.

    For Third-Party’s, look no further than Wyoming’s state legislature. In 2020 a Libertarian candidate got elected to the Legislature which created all headlines about the history and what it means for third parties. (USA well behind the AUS curve there.) For an article about ‘record number of ind/3rd-party candidates’ in Wyoming, I suggest article at link:
    Summary: Constitution Party (3 Candidates – 1 Sen/2 Reps), Libertarians (7 Candidates – 1 Sen/6 Reps), Independents (7 Candidates – 1 Sen/6 Reps).
    Wyoming has 62 lower house seats and some still run unopposed (basically one-party state there, strong republicans) except for write-ins, so it’s a good opportunity for Ind/3rd Party’s to run when the Dem or Rep won’t run against each other in some districts. (Compared to West Aus 2021 with 59 seats having at least 5 candidates per seat.) So for our context, it seems small, but big for them. Watch District 22 (if an Ind can take over from an Ind), District 39 (if Libertarian can win another term), District 55 (same Libertarian candidate as last time, only 32 votes difference – possible FLIP).

    Looking forward to seeing the results tomorrow!

  13. Adrian Beaumontsays:
    Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:09 pm
    Reps will vote heavily on Election Day. That’s why early vote numbers don’t matter very much.

    Are you saying 40 million early votes doesn’t matter much? That is incredible thing to say. Wow.

  14. Ven @ #23 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 11:24 pm

    Are you saying 40 million early votes doesn’t matter much? That is incredible thing to say. Wow.

    It doesn’t if 80 million votes are cast on the day. Say the “unaffiliated” aren’t breaking decisively one way or the other, and that registered Dems/Reps are voting for their party. Could be generous assumptions, both, but whatever.

    Call it a 5m vote lead for the Dems right now. At best. The GOP just needs a ~6% lead on the day, and that’s erased. They shouldn’t get that. They don’t deserve to get that. But the ferals are feral, and a lot of the non-ferals are mad about the economy and happy to blame the incumbent for it, and a decent chunk of the electorate intentionally votes for gridlock.

    Good chance they get it, “should” and “deserve” notwithstanding.

  15. The concluding comment re Denmark is, as I understand it, not accurate. Mette Fredriksen went to the election with a promise to first try to form government ‘over the centre’, with Venstre and the Moderates. This is how negotiations are proceeding. Of course it’s a much safer position to be in to have the fallback option of relying on the left. But that isn’t altogether simple given the Social Liberals, one of the red bloc parties, is strongly pushing for a centrist government.

  16. So, the opinion polls are predicting a win for the Republicans in the H. of Reps. and a likely win in the Senate too. If, after counting the real votes, the Democrats, let’s say, win both, wait for another litany of cries “We was rhobbbed!” by the MAGA rabble….

    MAGA definition of Democracy: We either win, or you lose… anything else is a fraud.

  17. “a r says:
    Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 12:47 am
    Ven @ #23 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 11:24 pm

    Are you saying 40 million early votes doesn’t matter much? That is incredible thing to say. Wow.

    It doesn’t if 80 million votes are cast on the day.”

    Well, statistically 40 million are equivalent to one third of the entire population of voters. That’s definitely not irrelevant. However, it will all come down on the relative bias for one party or the other in the 40 million as compared to the 80 million, with the bias in the 80 million being likely more important, especially if the contest is relatively close.

  18. Nov. 6: Statista’s average of recent polls gives an advantage to the Republicans of 48.5% vs 45.5% for the Democrats, but note that the 3% difference is on the limit of the usual margin of error.

    Nov. 8: “The latest polling for the 2022 United States midterm election generic congressional vote between the Democratic and Republican parties shows a lead for the Republicans, who are now leading Democrats by 2.5 percentage points.”

  19. “Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 8:46 am”

    Thanks for the updates, Ven… What many feared it seems to be happening: The MAGAs will do what they can to impose their undemocratic will on the real results. In 2020 some Republicans did find their conscience and opposed absurd MAGA claims…. How many of them are still in office? How many of those who are still in office remain truthful to their conscience?

    After the attack on the Capitol and, more recently, against Nancy Pelosi’s husband, the concept of “slippery slope” is taking a truly worrying turn in the USA under MAGA influence…

  20. #BlueTsunami2022 Trending on Twitter 1:33pm PST Update–BlueTsunami2022-Treading-on-Twitter

    From the article:
    UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 8:33:21 AM AEDT ·
    Lots of craziness on Twitter right not. BlueTsunami still trending. Long lines in some places, normal turnout in others. Huge lines on college campuses and all across Wisconsin. Charlie Kirk appears to be having some kind of meltdown on his podcast because the thinks Kari Lake is losing in Arizona, which seems to be ground zero of the craziness right now. Maricopa county is also trending, right wing trolls are saying that they’re having to wait 2+ hours at their polling places, claiming their votes are being suppressed (ironic, isn’t it). They suddenly care about long lines at polling places, but Maricopa County’s twitter handle sent out a tweet saying it is not true, no lines longer than 30 minutes anywhere in Maricopa. Right wingers also saying ‘red wave’ in Maimi-Dade and are already claiming that Elaine Luria has lost because of long lines in Virginia Beach. Maybe we need some phone banking in her district. The right seems to be claiming red-wave victory, voter suppression and fraud, all at the same time. I think they’re in a panic, which is good for us. GOTV!

    In my district CA-47 I saw very steady turnout at the library, mostly women, some brought their children and voted after the library Storytime. Drove by another polling place at the local community center, lots of older and Asian voters, about 10 people lined up. Hoping they are all voting for Katie Porter today!

  21. When the polls are dead even with candidates like Herschel Walker & Dr Oz… I don’t know about you but I’m sick. I feel hopeless against the tide of hate in this country. How the Fukk did we sink so low?–BlueTsunami2022-Treading-on-Twitter

  22. It will be interesting to see if there is larger turnout of women voters in response to repeal of Roe vs Wade.
    Alienating half the population should have implications in a functional democracy, we saw it here, there is more need for them to see it there.

  23. Adrian, great to see you back doing this. Thanks.

    Assuming enough GOP election deniers get in up and down tickets, what is your take for 2024? How secure are the checks and balances for a mostly fair and free election? And how unstable could the US be in the post election environment more broadly?

  24. I’ll add Alaska and Utah to my Senate seat watch list.

    Yep. Mullins would be something. He is close enough in the polls to keep an eye on. He endorsed Biden in 2020. Doesnt seem to be hurting him.

  25. CNN First exit poll:
    1) Feelings about how the US are going: 25% positive, 74% negative…. APPARENTLY BAD for Biden/Democrats, but we don’t know. Many Democrats would disagree about the current situation due to Roe vs Wade and the Republican-dominated Supreme Court, Republicans would just hate Biden, Pelosi and focus on the economy.
    2) Opinion of Biden as President: 45% approve, 55% disapprove…. APPARENTLY BAD for Biden/Democrats, but we don’t know. Leftists would disagree with Biden because he is not going “far enough fast enough” to the left; but would still vote for the Democrats in order to defeat the Republicans (who are much worse, especially under MAGA influence).
    3) Was your US House vote to:
    – Support Biden (18%)
    – Oppose Biden (32%)
    – Biden not a factor (48%)…. Overall probably NOT TOO BAD for Biden/Democrats (positive+neutral = 66%)
    4) Effect of Biden’s policies on the country:
    – Hurting 46%
    – Helping 36%
    – Not making a difference 16%…. Overall probably NOT TOO BAD for Biden/Democrats (positive + neutral = 52%)

    Conclusion: The exit poll results are difficult to interpret…. and the election result could still favour one or the other main party.

  26. The polls are clearly pointing to the standard mid-term swing against the party in the White House, with the Republicans almost universally favoured to re-take the House, while few are prepared to pick the Senate. These predictions may well come to pass of course (pre-election predictions are indeed reasonably spot on 80% of the time), but this time around there are a few caveats. The fundamentals, of course, favour the Red team, with the high gas prices and general inflationary woes supercharging the usual swing against the sitting President’s party. But the SCOTUS abortion decision is a real wild card, and reports of a big surge in women voters might indicate that the Republicans won’t get it all their own way tonight.

    FWIW (which is probably not much), I’m predicting that the Republicans win a narrow majority in the House (with a seat tally in the 220s), with the Dems to just hold the Senate (with a net gain of one for 51-49 split).

  27. This may be the longest holding my breath event since Labor got the thousand votes and the two seats that meant the Xbenchers could not fuck a Labor government around in the House.

  28. Saira Draper

    Don’t tell me energy is low around voting.

    Just received a report out of Kansas that a voter was told she couldn’t vote while wearing her partisan t-shirt.

    So she took it off and voted in her bra.


  29. Alpo – At a guess, I’d say that the 27% picking abortion as the biggest issue may be very significant. It’s probably a reasonable guess to say that the majority of those are voting in response to the SCOTUS decision in Dobbs, ie more likely to be Democrats (who have something to fight for) than Republicans (who have basically got what they want).

  30. In Pennsylvania:

    Zeke Tayler Anaesthesiologist
    There has never been a line at my polling place in the 5 years I’ve been voting here.


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