US midterm elections live

Republicans will probably win both chambers of Congress, though the Senate is much closer. Live commentary from late Wednesday morning.

Live Commentary

4:15pm In Nevada Senate, Laxalt’s lead down to 48.9-48.0, or just over 8,000 votes, on more mail from Washoe county.

2:19pm It’s looking very good for Dem Kelly in Arizona Senate. He now has a 51.7-46.1 lead after 79% is counted. Maricopa’s votes increased his lead, but mail drop offs still haven’t been counted.

1:52pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in the Nevada Senate race narrows to under 12,700 votes (49.2-47.8) on more counting from Dem Clark county.

12:21pm In the House, Reps now lead by 209-195 per CNN, a 12-seat net gain so far. They now lead in 221 seats to 214 Dem leads after flipping a Dem lead in Colorado’s third district.

11:52am Friday I’m not sure when we’ll get big mail updates from Nevada today. In Arizona, the most populous county, Maricopa, will be releasing new numbers at 2pm AEDT. Dem Kelly currently leads for Senate by 51.5-46.3 with 76% reporting.

5:16pm In the House, CNN has Reps winning by 209-191, and they’ve gained 12 net seats. But this spreadsheet had Reps only leading by 220-215 at 2pm today AEDT counting leads which haven’t been called yet. Despite the narrow current House margin, the Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker currently gives Reps a 6.1% overall lead.

4:57pm Rep Laxalt’s lead in Nevada Senate down to 49.4-47.6, or about 15,800 votes on more late mail. Is there enough late mail for the Dem to overhaul Laxalt?

1:20pm Today’s late mail updates in Arizona have been more favourable for Dems than the overall results in the county they were from. Dem Kelly now leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4 with 76% reporting according to CNN. However, mail dropped off on Election Day instead of posted may boost Reps. In Nevada, Rep Laxalt’s lead for Senate has fallen to 49.6-47.5, a little below 18,000 votes on late mail counting.

9:55am In Nevada, Rep Laxalt leads for Senate by 49.9-47.2 or 22,600 votes. But it looks likely there’s at least 160,000 mail remaining to be counted in Nevada’s two most populous counties, Washoe and Clark, and that mail will probably put the Dem back ahead. In Arizona, the last Election Day votes reduced the Dem Senate lead to 51.2-46.6. We’ll see if late mail helps the Reps.

6:30am Thursday CNN has now called 203 House seats for the Reps and 187 for the Dems, a net gain for Reps of seven seats. With 99% of Election Day precincts reporting in Arizona, Dem Kelly leads for Senate by 51.4-46.4. But there are still lots more late mail to count there. In other developments overnight, Wisconsin’s Senate contest was called for Rep Johnson, and Georgia as going to a Dec 6 runoff.

9:25pm I’ve been writing an article about the US midterm results for The Conversation, but in the meantime Rep Laxalt has overtaken Dem Cortez Masto for Nevada Senate by 49.9-47.2. Dems will hope late mail will give Cortez Masto the win. And in Arizona, Dem Kelly’s lead for Senate has narrowed to 52-46 with 91% of Election Day precincts reporting.

7:43pm In Arizona, Dem Senator Kelly’s lead cut to 53-44 on more Election Day votes. And the race tightens further in Nevada too.

7:30pm Reps are still up five sets net in the House, with eight gains to three for Dems. CNN gives them a 195-176 lead with 218 needed for control. Other US media have called more House races.

7:15pm With 65% counted in Nevada, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 50-47. That lead will shrink as more rurals report, but late mail will help Cortez Masto. A likely Dem HOLD.

6pm In the House, Reps lead by 193-170 with 218 needed for control. But Dems have gained two seats, while Reps have gained seven, for a net gain of five for Reps..

5:17pm With 88% counted in Wisconsin Senate, Rep Johnson’s lead falls back to 50.7-49.1.

5:15pm Pennsylvania has been officially CALLED for Dem Fetterman in the Senate. Dem GAIN

5:08pm Arizona Secretary of State website says 72% of Election Day precincts are already in. Seems like a very good chance for Dem Senator Kelly to hold onto his current 57-41 lead.

4:57pm We finally have some results from Nevada. With 44% in, Dem Senator Cortez Masto leads by 54-43. That includes Clark county, the big Dem stronghold in the south-east, but not much from the Rep landslide rurals or the swing county of Washoe.

4:39pm Dem Warnock back ahead in Georgia Senate by 49.1-48.8 with 93% in. Remember the runoff if nobody gets 50%.

4:26pm In Kentucky, the “no” vote against a constitutional amendment banning abortion is leading 52-48 with 80% counted, even as the Rep Senator Paul won a blowout with 61%.

4:15pm In Wisconsin Senate with 80% counted, Rep Johnson leads Dem Barnes by 51.5-48.3. I’m not sure if late mail can snatch that lead back.

4:07pm With 91% counted in Georgia, Rep Walker leads by 49.1-48.8 with 2.0% for a Libertarian. Remember that if nobody gets at least 50% in Georgia, it goes to a Dec 6 runoff.

4:03pm Nate Cohn on Twitter. This would be a Dem Senate GAIN

3:50pm In the House Reps still lead by 179-146 according to CNN and have gained five seats. The 538 live blog says that some House seats that were expected to go to Reps have been retained by Dems.

3:35pm CNN has also called Washington for Dem Murray, a Dem Senate HOLD. Reps have held Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

3:33pm CNN has CALLED New Hampshire for Dem Maggie Hassan, who leads by 55-43 with 60% in. That’s Dem Senate HOLD.

3:14pm Dems have GAINED two governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts after moderate Rep governors of those states retired. Reps have easily held their big states of Florida and Texas, while Dems will hold New York and California.

2:40pm Nate Cohn tweets that Dem Fetterman is doing better than Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Biden won by 1.2%, so that points to a Dem GAIN in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

2:18pm In the House, Reps have made five gains according to CNN, and lead by 147-82 so far. But Dems have held their two marginal seats in Virginia.

2:13pm The early mail in Arizona has come in, and Dem Kelly leads by 56-41 with 41% in for the Senate. But Election Day turnout was very good for Reps in Arizona.

2:02pm In Iowa Senate, the Dem has a 13 point lead with 27% in. Iowa is another state where early vote is counted first, and Election Day should allow the Rep to win easily.

1:50pm Dem Bennett has been CALLED the winner in Colorado Senate, a HOLD for the Dems. He leads by 19% with 48% counted. Meanwhile Dem Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania Senate narrows to 10% with 32% in, and Dem Barnes is leading in Wisconsin by 2% with 28% in.

1:18pm Dem Warnock has recovered the lead in Georgia Senate by 51.3-46.9 with 64% in.

1:14pm And in Ohio with 44% counted, Rep Vance is now only just behind Dem Ryan for Senate 50.1-49.8. Projection: Vance overtakes Ryan and Reps easily HOLD Ohio Senate.

1:10pm In North Carolina, Rep Budd has overtaken Dem Beasley by 49.2-48.8 with 68% in. Budd will go on to win as Election Day votes now dominate. Projection: Rep HOLD North Carolina Senate.

1:06pm In Georgia, Rep Walker has just overtaken Dem Warnock and leads by 51.5-46.7 with 61% in. Warnock may recover with more counting from urban Georgia.

12:51pm With 51% counted in Georgia, Dem Senator Warnock’s lead narrows to 50-48. Meanwhile, Rep Governor Kemp is leading by 52-47.

12:34pm With 14% counted in New Hampshire, Dem Hassan leads by 61-38.

12:31pm Dems are well ahead currently in Senate contests for Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. But these reflect early votes, and leads will narrow or be overturned once Election Day votes report.

12:16pm In fact there are now three Rep projected House GAINS from the Dems just in Florida.

12:13pm And in more good news for Reps in Florida, they GAIN the fourth House district from the Dems.

12:09pm In Florida, Rep Senator Marco Rubio and Rep Governor Ron DeSantis are projected winners with Rubio leading by 12 points and DeSantis by 16. That’s with 72% counted, and Election Day votes will make Florida even more Rep. Miami Dade county in the south, which voted heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016, has been won by both Reps.

12:03pm In North Carolina’s Senate contest, the Dem leads by 54-44 with 45% in. But that’s early vote, and Election Day will favour the Reps.

11:53am In Virginia’s 10th House district, the Dem incumbent has a 52.5-47.4 lead over the Rep with 53% in.

11:45am In Georgia’s Senate contest, Dem Warnock leads Rep Walker by 56-42 with 29% in. That lead will narrow as more Election Day votes are counted.

9:45am Wednesday In many US states, voters register as either Dem, Rep or Nonpartisan/Other. Localities in some of these states report Election Day turnout throughout the day. There’s HEAVY Rep turnout that isn’t being matched by the Dems, and is overwhelming Dem early vote leads. This is pointing to an ugly result for the Dems today, with Reps overperforming their polls.

I have a one hour appointment at 10:30am. We’ll see how early results are looking when I return at 11:30am.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

I covered the US midterm elections for The Conversation on Monday; polls close from late Wednesday morning AEDT. The final FiveThirtyEight forecasts give Republicans a 59% chance to win the Senate (54% Monday) and an 84% chance to win the House (83% Monday). The section below has been copied from The Conversation article.

Poll closing times

I will focus here on the close Senate races that are within five points in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregates. All times are Wednesday AEDT. The first US polls close at 10am in the eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana; Republicans will win both states easily.

Georgia will be the first state with a close Senate race to close its polls at 11am, then North Carolina closes at 11:30am. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will both close at 12pm. Polls in Wisconsin and Arizona will close at 1pm, with Nevada closing at 2pm. Polls in the Pacific coast states close at 3pm, with the final polls closing at 5pm in Alaska’s western time zone. Poll closing times are derived from The Green Papers’ list, with 11 hours added to UTC/GMT.

Counting will usually take at least several hours after polls close, and in close contests we may have to wait days or even weeks for an outcome. Exit polls will be released once all polls in a state are closed, but are unreliable.

In Georgia’s Senate contest, there will be a December 6 runoff if neither major party candidate clears 50% on Tuesday. There is a third party Libertarian candidate who could prevent this.

In some states, early counting is likely to skew Republican, as Election Day votes are counted first. In other states, Democratic-leaning mail will be counted first, so their early counts will skew to Democrats.

Israeli near final results

Final results of the November 1 Israeli election will be declared Wednesday, but are nearly complete now. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties won 64 of the 120 Knesset seats (up 12 since the March 2021 election). Netanyahu’s Likud won 32 seats (up two), the far-right Religious Zionists 14 (up eight) and the religious Shas 11 (up two) and UTJ seven (steady). The Religious Zionists are now the third biggest party.

If two parties had made the 3.25% threshold, Netanyahu would have been short of a majority. But Meretz, which has represented Israel’s left, was knocked out with 3.16%, losing all its six seats, while the Arab Balad had 2.90%. In a mark of Israel’s right-wing shift, Labor won just 3.7% and four seats (down three). Labor was once a major party of government in Israel.

Danish election and UK polls

The Danish election was also held November 1. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party (the Moderates) won the remaining 16 seats. The left retained office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.

Two weeks after Rishi Sunak became Britain’s new PM, polls have stabilised at a large Labour lead after Sunak made gains in his first week. In nine UK national polls taken since November 1, Labour has led by 18 to 26 points. On November 17, the government will deliver another budget after the collapse of the September 23 attempt; this is likely to include tax rises and spending cuts.

578 comments on “US midterm elections live”

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  1. I am not really that fussed on Bidens unfavourability. Plenty of progressives who would say that in a poll then vote differently. Instead, the DNC are pushing against the general midterm malaise and economic issues. A GOP on the brink of autocracy will help in the Democrat turnout which deals with part of the midterm malaise. Will that be enough?

    As for Meidas Touch podcasts on swamping polls…. sorry, but man, I struggle to take them seriously. I hope they prove me wrong tho.

  2. Disgusting Republican partisans, most likely:

    ACLU of Oklahoma
    ALERT: Our office has received multiple complaints of poll workers instructing voters to vote straight party.
    You do not have to vote straight party to have your vote counted. If a poll worker tells you who to vote for, contact our Election Protection Hotline at 405-849-5220.

  3. Simon Katich @ #51 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 10:40 am

    I am not really that fussed on Bidens unfavourability. Plenty of progressives who would say that in a poll then vote differently. Instead, the DNC are pushing against the general midterm malaise and economic issues. A GOP on the brink of autocracy will help in the Democrat turnout which deals with part of the midterm malaise. Will that be enough?

    As for Meidas Touch podcasts on swamping polls…. sorry, but man, I struggle to take them seriously. I hope they prove me wrong tho.

    It’s not what the hosts say but who they talk to:

    Tom Bonier
    , adjunct lecturer
    , cofounder
    , former COO
    , member

    And Simon Rosenberg. Sure, they may support the Progressive cause but they’re serious data guys. As this Tweet By Rosenberg shows:

    Simon Rosenberg
    I’m not going to post anything else tonight other than actual results but this PA exit poll data is yet another sign of the colossal media fail on abortion and Dem intensity this election.

    Political Polls
    CBS Pennsylvania Exit Poll:

    Which ONE of these issues mattered most to your vote?

    Abortion 36%
    Inflation 28%
    Crime 11%
    Gun policy 10%
    Immigration 8%

    That’s a report from a non-partisan group.

  4. Simon Katich @ #53 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 10:46 am

    C@tmomma @ #50 Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 10:09 am

    Keep in mind that the Georgia Senate election is likely to go to a run-off. Nail-biting time for control of the Senate, if so.

    Interesting tho how the 2021 runoff seemed to go without incident. Georgia seems to have its head screwed on. I notice the same dude is running the show this year.

    Yep. Also, I just noticed that Trump is trumpeting a ‘big announcement’ for next Tuesday. If there’s a run-off it will have a material effect.

  5. GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger
    Georgia, if you are in line by 7pm, you WILL be allowed to vote! Head to the polls, and make your voice heard.

  6. The New York Times
    A woman and her son were removed as election workers in Georgia after officials said they discovered social media posts linking her to the Jan. 6 riot and implying she was going to record elements of her work at the polling place, which is forbidden.

  7. And Simon Rosenberg. Sure, they may support the Progressive cause…

    DNC strategists and operatives. Doesnt mean they are wrong tho.

    I put my hope in a polling error caused in part by over adjustment from last time and over-estimating the pro GOP midterm effect this time. And also that polls can simply be wrong. That may be showing up in the data the Meidas Touch experts are using. But I am nervous in reading too much into the early poll data coming from politically biased sources.

  8. I’d also add that this is the first opportunity that a lot of women have had the chance to express their opinion about the Dobbs decision.

    Also, I don’t slavishly adopt the position of Democratic strategists, I simply listen to their pov in order for a bit of balance to the overwhelming narrative which is Dem negative. 🙂

  9. Lol.

    ryan teague beckwith
    With Republican voters now more eager to vote on Election Day, it’s more often going to be the GOP suing to keep polling places open.

  10. Adrian has made a couple of comments to the effect that democrat leads in key races were a case of ‘early days’ and that the Election Day count would favour the republicans.

    Whilst the second point reflects the 2020 elections, back then the early and postal votes were not counted until much later on.

    What is the breakdown of this early vote count this time? Is there is a large residual democrat vote ‘out there’ that won’t be counted until the early hours of tomorrow, or have they ‘fixed’ that 2020 issue? Or were the 2020 circumstances (lots of postal votes due to covid19) fairly unique and effectively a ‘one off’ (noting that Republican controlled state legislatures have done their best to restrict postal voting, given what happened last time)?

  11. I think Adrian’s assessment was pretty premature, there is going to be far less mail-in vote, but still heavy early vote. It’s also more likely the E-Day vote in some places will be slightly more mixed than in 2020.

  12. No indication of a red-wave.

    Only East-coast polling finished so far. Everyone knows the coasts are enclaves for the lefty elites. Wait for the flyover states to report.

  13. Of course, it’s early days, but the results so far do not show any Red Wave….
    May they continue like that (or better)….

    The Republicans have been only able to snatch 1 seat from the Democrats in the House, but they have lost 2 governors. The Senate results so far show no change from the current status quo.

  14. a r – “can’t tell if serious” – there isn’t a data point out there, except in Florida showing the GOP doing well-enough for a national wave.

    At the moment – I’m most concerned about Nevada and Arizona senate, in that order.

  15. ” r says:
    Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 12:14 pm
    No indication of a red-wave.

    Only East-coast polling finished so far. Everyone knows the coasts are enclaves for the lefty elites. Wait for the flyover states to report.”

    I am looking forward to see the results in California and Texas….

  16. “jt1983 says:
    Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 12:18 pm
    a r – “can’t tell if serious” – there isn’t a data point out there, except in Florida showing the GOP doing well-enough for a national wave.”

    Florida has become a Trumpist enclave, results there are worth considering to support a “national wave” only if they run against the GOP.

  17. Dems less than 100K votes ahead in Georgia now. 41% counted. Early leads still holding up elsewhere, but it may only be a matter of time … 🙁

  18. The Democrats have an advantage of 8 seats in the House of Reps. over the Republicans. So far, the Republicans have snatched back 3 of those seats…..

    Who said: “Stop the vote!”?…. 🙂

  19. There still seems to be a lot of outstanding urban votes in Georgia and North Carolina that will favour Dems, perhaps less so that mail/early votes that will potentially offset outstanding rural votes.

  20. If the GOP somehow don’t gain the House, then it would be considered an absolute disaster (for them, lol)…

    My own expectation was the GOP gains 15-20 seats in the House, which would still be a pretty weak result in a mid-term.

  21. So far, the results are highly biased by the vote in the South East, including Florida that’s Red almost everywhere for the House (20 Reps vs 7 Dems).

  22. Huge proportion of the vote still out in and around Atlanta, GA is looking decent at this stage.

    Worse-case scenario at this point seems the Dec run-off, which was expected tbh.

  23. @Chris Gaskin

    My advice on those counting their chickens is too look where votes are coming in from, Georgia will go red is my prediction based on where votes are still to come
    It may do but De Kalb County in Metro Atlanta has only 7% reporting, it’s still far too close to call and will probably go to a runoff election.

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