Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)

Albanese’s strong ratings remain effectively unchanged; attitudes towards stage three tax cuts finely balanced.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,757 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)”

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  1. WWP
    I know plenty of middle class and some upper middle class kids who fried their economic futures (and some their corporeal existence) with drugs.

  2. “I don’t have to assure you of anything.”

    Which is pretty lucky all things considered and the pack of cards you have to play if you did need to.

  3. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:36 pm

    “Christ What an argument. We must continue to kill people because we can’t afford not to.

    This is the Cartel at work.”

    Just ypical koolaid, trickle down, anti democracy sophistry. Full of sound and fury signifying predominantly lots of money for the super wealthy and shit loads of deliberate poverty and cruelty.

    Like with mental health, the good guys saw the problems with institutions and shut them down, then the trickle down, poverty evangelists unfunded not just the institutions but everything they possibly could.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually a very good point WWP. A $US286 billion hit to our bottom line could favour the super wealthy who will be able to take advantage of the means of labour at far reduced prices. With no Government safety net at all (our schooling and hospital systems will probably collapse), labour will compete against itself for lower and lower benefits.

  4. “WWP
    I know plenty of middle class and some upper middle class kids who fried their economic futures (and some their corporeal existence) with drugs.”

    Because deliberate policy treated their health and mental health problems as criminal issues. The ‘war on drugs’ is a very deliberate policy choice of the trickle down anti-democratic koolaid crowd.

  5. Boerwar @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:40 pm:
    “ macarthur I do not at all appreciate the way in which you set yourself up as a moral guardian. I don’t have to assure you of anything.”
    ———————————————-

    Boerwar, it is clear you are standing by your advocacy of Russian war crimes against Ukraine. I am just calling it as I am seeing it. If you’re content wearing that cap I’m fitting you with, that tells us everything we need to know about you. If you reject this characterisation of yourself, you have an open forum here to refute it. As do all the rest of us.

  6. “Actually a very good point WWP. A $US286 billion hit to our bottom line could favour the super wealthy who will be able to take advantage of the means of labour at far reduced prices. With no Government safety net at all (our schooling and hospital systems will probably collapse), labour will compete against itself for lower and lower benefits.”

    Yeah if you play by the trickle down rules that is how is has to work. Obviously if you stay within the construct of the problem you aren’t ever going to find a solution.

  7. WWP
    I pointed out two basic facts about WW2. They have been facts for 70 years and they will still be facts in another 70 years.

  8. Macarthur at 8.36 pm

    The bigger question is for the US: will they, or will they not, join the International Criminal Court?

    Here is Congressional testimony from David Scheffer, Clinton’s Ambassador for War Crimes Issues, speaking upon the finalisation of the Rome Statute in July 1998:

    “In addition, we are disappointed with the treatment of the crime of aggression. We and others had long argued that such a crime had not been defined under customary international law for purposes of individual criminal responsibility. We also insisted, as did the International Law Commission in 1994, that there had to be a direct linkage between a prior Security Council decision that a state had committed aggression and the conduct of an individual of that state. The statute of the court now includes a crime of aggression, but leaves it to be defined by a subsequent amendment to be adopted seven years after entry into force. There is no guarantee that the vital linkage with a prior decision by the Security Council will be required by the definition that emerges, if in fact a broadly acceptable definition can be achieved. We will do all we can to ensure that such linkage survives.”

    In other words, claiming the Security Council veto trumps basic international law.

    And in 2022 the US is tied to a more backward definition of war crimes than in 1946.

    Since 2021 Scheffer has argued that it is now high time for the US to join the Court.

    See: https://www.international-criminal-justice-today.org/arguendo/a-renewed-agenda-to-advance-u-s–interests-with-the-international-criminal-court/

  9. These trickle down lies have worked so well for so long, it isn’t that surprising they persist like the zombies and cockroaches they are.

    The biggest lie is that taxes pay for welfare, which it does not in our country.
    But the biggest scandal is how government has outsourced employment services to the private sector.
    Even more the worst bit is that the Reserve bank wants to create more unemployment in order to reign in inflation.

  10. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:46 pm

    “Actually a very good point WWP. A $US286 billion hit to our bottom line could favour the super wealthy who will be able to take advantage of the means of labour at far reduced prices. With no Government safety net at all (our schooling and hospital systems will probably collapse), labour will compete against itself for lower and lower benefits.”

    Yeah if you play by the trickle down rules that is how is has to work. Obviously if you stay within the construct of the problem you aren’t ever going to find a solution.
    中华人民共和国
    Very true.

  11. macarthur
    Nothing is clear except that you are jumping to false conclusions and, based on those false conclusions, behaving like a sanctimonious arse.

  12. There was a bit of irony with the old trickle up effect. Some in my cohort are poor or dead because they could afford lots of drugs.

  13. ” based on those false conclusions, behaving like a sanctimonious arse”

    Isn’t that the primary MO here on PB? why is it bad when McArthur Park does it?

  14. Boerwar @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:46 pm:
    “ I pointed out two basic facts about WW2. They have been facts for 70 years and they will still be facts in another 70 years.”
    ——————————————————

    Boerwar, you need to move on from 1945 when looking for paradigms of strategy and morality. The rest of the world certainly has. Have you forgotten, or did you never realise (or are you ignoring? or rejecting) that things which weren’t war crimes in 1939-1945 are definitely war crimes today? That was the point of my first post to you this evening.

  15. “There was a bit of irony with the old trickle up effect. Some in my cohort are poor or dead because they could afford lots of drugs.”

    Well the criminalisation of health problems does have economic outcomes possibly including poverty, the dead bit is pretty obvious effect of treating health problems and criminal law matters. It is like you are trying to kill people. Oh wait they are.

  16. Boerwar @ #2648 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 8:42 pm

    WWP
    I know plenty of middle class and some upper middle class kids who fried their economic futures (and some their corporeal existence) with drugs.

    And I know plenty of middle class and upper class kids who used drugs and then grew out of it who went on to successful and meaningful lives as productive members of Australian society.

    Don’t set yourself up as a moral guardian and arbiter yourself, Boerwar. Especially if you are going to level criticisms at others for that.

  17. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:33 pm
    Some people are poor because of the force of circumstances. Others are poor because they make bad choices.

    People who are poor often don’t get to make many choices or the options they have don’t allow good choices

  18. “The United Nations is far from perfect, but it is better than the alternative (nothing).”

    It is pretty hilarious that those most panicking about China are those least inclined to support the global institutions that might have kept China more or less, almost certainly more, in check.

  19. The other universal class of war criminals in WW2 who were never prosecuted were submarine commanders who sank merchant ships not in convoy without warning. The Brits were keen for a while to prosecute Kretschmer. The Yanks told them wtte not to be stupid.
    Macarthur should read Bomber Harris on the topic of Allied bombing and its status as a war crime.

  20. “People who are poor often don’t get to make many choices or the options they have don’t allow good choices”

    It is a feature not a bug of trickle down, anti democracy policy.

  21. Dog’s Brunch @ #2666 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 8:56 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:33 pm
    Some people are poor because of the force of circumstances. Others are poor because they make bad choices.

    People who are poor often don’t get to make many choices or the options they have don’t allow good choices

    And we should try and keep them alive long enough so they can make good choices and get on with a fulfilling life.

  22. “The UN constrains China? Really?”

    Of course it doesn’t because it has been deliberately weakened and undermined by those now most ‘concerned’ about China.

    All global institutions have been deliberately weakened, underfunded, sidelined etc, and not by China.

  23. Boerwar @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:49 pm:
    “ Nothing is clear except that you are jumping to false conclusions and, based on those false conclusions, behaving like a sanctimonious arse.”
    —————————————————

    Boerwar, William Bowe has kindly provided us all with a safe soapbox to speak our minds. You use this to smugly boast how Russia is “following your advice” to bomb them back to a dark, freezing ice age this winter, by deliberately targeting Ukraine’s civilian electricity supply. It should be evident how hurtful this is to anyone with sympathetic connections to Ukraine. I’m glad to be known as a “sanctimonious arse” and not to be what you are showing yourself to be.

    You still have your soapbox. Nobody but William can restrict your use of it. But nobody at all can control how people will accept or reject the points you make, or form judgements about the person making them.

  24. “My point is that some people are poor despite having options not to be poor.”

    It is a point that ignores all the policy working against them, so most of reality but sure, even in a perfect system some people are going to be self destructive.

  25. One of the great what if is how would things be if Jeff had enacted the findings of the drug inquiry his government held.

  26. “WWP
    Your premise was false during the Korean War. What has changed since then?”

    Could you help me with which premise and why the Korean War is relevant to that premise?

  27. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:04
    “And we should try and keep them alive long enough so they can make good choices and get on with a fulfilling life.”

    +1

  28. “WWP
    I agree. It is high time thst those who promote drug use and consequent poverty are made accountable.”

    Big pharma are such an intrinsic part of the trickle down world we’ve built that isn’t realistic, but if we start to treat users as having a health or mental health issue that needs treating, and the poverty stricken growers and mules essential to the global drug trade as victims rather than criminal master minds, then maybe yeah. Oh and also at the same time we’d put the actual criminal masterminds that currently profit from this insanely stupid structure out of business.

  29. J J Hall at 9.04 pm

    Sometimes a bit of political instability is required to make political polls relevant.

    See the table of UK voting intention polling in 2022 at:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    Simplest way to read is pick one poll brand and look at changes over time. E.g. using YouGov/Times, the big jumps for Labour occurred during August and especially in the last 10 days of September. Much of those voting shifts will be hard to reverse.

    This is why ‘the Conservative Party faces a “terrible political picture” at the moment, and “it’s not looking likely” that they can regain their popularity, says Prof Jane Green of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at Oxford University.’

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63327087 (at 20.16)

  30. “WWP
    It was not Big Pharma that fried some if my cohort.”

    It was the same system, the same cohort of people as big pharma. I don’t expect you to see or understand this. Have a great night.

  31. Boerwar @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 8:58 pm
    “ Macarthur should read Bomber Harris on the topic of Allied bombing and its status as a war crime.”
    ————————————

    The one thing that excuses Allied bombing strategies in WW2 is the fact they were put in a position by Germany and Japan of either forcefully resisting them or otherwise passively accepting victimhood at their hands. Absent this, and Bomber Harris was simply a butcher. With this, though, he was justified. I quite recommend the interview Harris gave in the 1973 ITV documentary “The World at War”, ep12, “Whirlwind: Bombing Germany, Sep 1939 – Apr 1944”, for the reminder it gives of the desperate straits the western Allies were in trying to engage Germany prior to D-Day, as well as of the righteous outrage felt towards Germany for unleashing the horrors of WW2 in the first place.

    However, Russia is not in the same moral position against Ukraine that the Allies were in against Germany – quite the reverse. So, your appeal to Allied strategy against Germany provide no moral cover for Russia against Ukraine.

  32. A bit more in Rex and P1’s wished for $US286 billion cut to Australias’ exports.

    In 2021 Australia exported $342.2 billion worth of good and services. So remember this cobbers, “Tweedledum and Tweedledee” have seriously suggested on this forum that 83.58% of Australias Exports should be stopped.

    Given it doesn’t look like a Newspoll night do we have anyone else who agrees with their assertion? Don’t be shy.

    Malleo Stultus

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/exports

  33. nath says:
    Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:22 pm

    No one invoke my authority either. Or else.
    中华人民共和国
    But our detente still good right cobber?

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