The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.
UPDATE: Full report here.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:17 pm
“Sometimes a bit of political instability is required to make political polls relevant.”
Cheers Dr Doolittle. A useful prescription!
Sunak officially throws his hat into the ring. There is that word “integrity” again. Where have I heard it before?
“Rishi Sunak has formally entered the Tory leadership contest to become Britain’s next prime minister.
Mr Sunak said Britain faced a “profound economic crisis” and the outcome of the current race for Downing Street “will decide whether the next generation of British people will have more opportunities than the last”.
“I want to fix our economy, unite our party and deliver for our country,” Mr Sunak said. “The challenges we face now are even greater.
“There will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead and I will work day in and day out to get the job done.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-tory-leadership-latest-penny-mordaunt/
I popped back in to see if my Newspoll addiction could be sated.
Alas, no. We are passed the hour now are we not?
Can I invoke William Bowe’s authority in demanding a Newspoll on behalf of myself and all other bludgers? Are we in accord?
Newspoll sooky-lalas should chill out and watch the cricket.
Holdenhillbilly @ #2701 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:38 pm
I hate cricket.
There won’t be a Newspoll two days before the budget. There will assuredly be one next week.
Proud to be a Newspoll sooky la-la. I refuse to pay for sport that should be on free to air TV! I have to put up with Tennis (boringer than batshit) so I should get Cricket and AFL for free.
middle aged balding white man @ #2700 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:37 pm
Yeah! It’s not Cricket Bludger, fcs!
William Bowe @ #2703 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:42 pm
They should do one before AND after the Budget to gauge the change in sentiment.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:41 pm
Holdenhillbilly @ #2701 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:38 pm
Newspoll sooky-lalas should chill out and watch the cricket.
I hate cricket.
中华人民共和国
I don’t like Cricket – I love it…
https://youtu.be/fI2FC36lXXQ
I’m suspecting a bounce from the Budget.
I dare Newspoll to report on that.
I haven’t watched cricket since the 2005 Ashes. It couldn’t get any better than that. And I almost lost my job because I didn’t turn up so often during the matches. Something had to give. It was cricket.
nath @ #2694 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:22 pm
You have authority!?! 😯
Upnorth – Malleo Stultus @ #2707 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:43 pm
I think even the Jamaicans are giving up on cricket. Well, at least the West Indies cricket team is. 😐
BoJo could be PM and then suspended from Parliament! Wow it can get better…
“No vote to cancel privileges committee’
The Levelling Up Secretary accused Steve Baker of a “straw man” argument over the privileges committee investigation into Boris Johnson.
A seven-strong committee of MPs will begin to hear oral evidence from witnesses in their attempt to decide whether Mr Johnson misled Parliament, and this could ultimately recommend he was suspended from the House of Commons.
“I’m afraid because of the privileges committee vote, Boris Johnson would be a guaranteed disaster,” Mr Baker told Sky News this morning.
But in a tweet a few moments ago, Simon Clarke said: “Boris is absolutely explicit there will be no vote to cancel the privileges committee. This is a straw man.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-tory-leadership-latest-penny-mordaunt/
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:38 pm
“Newspoll sooky-lalas should chill out and watch the cricket.”
No thanks. I’ll stick with the Yorkshire steam railway!
I refuse to pay Rupert Murdoch to watch sport too! If it’s not on Free To Air, it’s not on!
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:46 pm
Upnorth – Malleo Stultus @ #2707 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:43 pm
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:41 pm
Holdenhillbilly @ #2701 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 9:38 pm
Newspoll sooky-lalas should chill out and watch the cricket.
I hate cricket.
中华人民共和国
I don’t like Cricket – I love it…
https://youtu.be/fI2FC36lXXQ
I think even the Jamaicans are giving up on cricket. Well, at least the West Indies cricket team is.
中华人民共和国
Thailand fielded a female team in the Womens World Cup. We must spread the Cricket Cartel outside of the Commonwealth.
The Australian 23/10
Netball Australia is battling a potential $25m sponsorship crisis after a player revolt led to Hancock Prospecting walking away, with the possibility more backers could follow.
_____________________
Still reckon it’s a win C@t ?
Taylormade says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:49 pm
The Australian 23/10
Netball Australia is battling a potential $25m sponsorship crisis after a player revolt led to Hancock Prospecting walking away, with the possibility more backers could follow.
_____________________
Still reckon it’s a win C@t ?
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade – battling – they can get tips from Matthew Guy and whoever is the leader in WA! Maybe even Liz Truss can give them a hand. LOL cobber.
Since there is no Newspoll. If anyone be interested here is the Liberal parties pitch, seem like the same old shit to me. No investment in infrastructure, the relentless goal in undermining our society by under-funding government.
Magic pudding economics.
—————————————————————————-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIl68guBOs&ab_channel=MattGuy-VictorianLiberalLeader
As part of our long-term economic plan:
1) We will control debt and stop wasteful spending so we can safeguard our economy for the long-term
Legislating a debt ceiling
Shelving the $35 billion Cheltenham to Box Hill rail line and redirecting every available cent into health
Ending billions of waste and mismanagement of infrastructure, such as the $4.7 billion blowout on the West Gate Tunnel
2) We will cut taxes to help hardworking Victorians be more financially secure
Cutting seven Labor taxes
Guaranteeing no new taxes or increases to existing taxes
3) We will support small business and enterprise
Helping more than 28,000 small businesses by increasing the payroll tax threshold from $700,000 to $1.6 million
Freezing Local Government business fees and charges for four years
A $2.5 billion Bringing Manufacturing Home fund to support Victorian businesses
A new Shopping Strip Revitalisation Program
4) We will reward hard working families
Public transport fare reduction $2 full and $1 concession all day every day & half price V/Line fares.
Household rebates of $3,000 for batteries and $1,400 for solar panels – doubled for rental properties.
5) We will boost homeownership
Cutting planning and approval red tape without Labor’s new Social Housing Tax
Abolishing Labor’s May 2022 registration fee increases on building and construction individuals and companies (Tradies Tax)
My Liberal team will bring a new energy and vigour to government so it services the interests of ALL Victorians, not just the interests of the Labor Party.
In 22 days, Victorians will begin voting and the choice is clear.
It is a choice between a fresh start or a second decade of Daniel Andrews.
It is a choice for responsible economic management or more debt and taxes.
Our long-term economic plan is our commitment to Victoria and forms part of our Real Solutions plan, which you can read more about here.
Kind regards,
Ever since the Queen died, my phone has come to the conclusion that what I’m really, really interested in reading is news about the royals. So now it spends much of the day helpfully notifying me of breaking news stories like this one:
https://www.geo.tv/latest/447724-king-charles-iii-told-to-control-sarah-ferguson-she-is-going-rogue-with-queen-dogs
Cat at 9.43 pm
Lest you become bored, here is a not so old post from Dr Bonham worth close study:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/04/poll-roundup-lukewarm-budget-reception.html
“However, to say the government could recover is not to say that it will. Even in the final weeks very few federal elections reach the stage where the winner is more or less certain. A recovery from this point – probably involving some combination of improved polling, polling error and getting lucky on the 2PP to seat conversion, would be around the high end of the range.
Weirdly, despite the Opposition being about as far ahead as it could credibly be expected to get (further ahead than Howard’s Coalition was of Keating’s Government around the same time), one cannot turn over a rock without finding three commentators and a C or F grade pollster who are convinced the election not merely may but will result in a hung parliament. It could yet do so, but for all the elections that see hung parliament speculation, very few deliver (with another emphatic non-delivery in South Australia a few weeks ago). The 2PP range a result has to land in for a hung parliament to occur is pretty narrow, and even landing in that range doesn’t ensure one.
We still don’t know if the polls have been effectively repaired. They are more transparent and more diverse, but it’s always possible that the difficulty of reaching certain kinds of voters is insurmountable and those voters will break heavily to the Coalition. I don’t think so though – not so much because of the evidence at state level (where accurate state polls can be followed by bad federal polls and vice versa) – but rather because if there are such breaks in the voting intentions of unreachable voters, this doesn’t look like being the campaign to bring them out, in the way the last one was.”
And a few other links for good measure:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/06/two-party-swing-decided-this-election.html
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/federal-election-2022-pollster.html
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/2022-house-of-reps-figures-finalised.html
I take it from the silence most our sane bunch don’t want to knock of 83% of our export earnings.
Seems only Rex and P1 want to have most people in Australia put into paupery. Funny how they come in here with their glib one liners and then do a runner when the truth comes out.
Malleo Stultus.
No Newspoll tonight? It’s the Great Newspoll Conspiracy.
Actually, they’re probably saving it until after the Budget.
In fact, if there was a conspiracy, that’s probably what would happen anyway. The post-election Budget’s sure to disappoint / cheese off / enrage lots of punters, maybe even end what has been an extended honeymoon period (5 months).
We shall see.
8 years in opposition and that is all they can come up with?
It reads as tax less, build less, spend less.
I’d rather pay tax and get stuff.
It is strange that all infrastructure spending is bad in the Lobster party except East/West link.
I wonder if the red tape they will cut is the red tape discouraging building on flood plains?
Danslide 2 is going to make Danslide 1 look like a good result for the LNP.
Griff says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 6:09 pm
max @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 5:49 pm
I like Weltschmerz.
———
Yes that’s another one I like too
And for those that can’t sleep some of what we got for our 165 billion dollars:
https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects
Fuck me. Direct from 1950’s US of A we have Joe McCarthy reincarnated and hovering over the Bludger Lounge lest any of our “precious bodily fluids are impurified’.
middle aged balding white man says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 10:03 pm
8 years in opposition and that is all they can come up with?
….
With all the going on, I am impressed they actually managed to put something out.
Not much vision, that is for sure.
Upnorth – Malleo Stultus @ #2697 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 8:28 pm
This about fossil fuel exports? I’ll sign on to that, if so. Sustainability and ethics first, then dollar signs.
1) We will control debt and stop wasteful spending so we can safeguard our economy for the long-term
Tell that to Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenburg.
Legislating a debt ceiling
This is a back door way to spending cuts. Can’t go past the debt ceiling… so we’ll have to cut something… No thank you, Matt.
Shelving the $35 billion Cheltenham to Box Hill rail line and redirecting every available cent into health
So … getting rid of much needed Public Transport infrastructure.. and replacing it with an amorphous ‘every available cent into health’. So, who determines which cents are ‘available’ and how many? I predict it wouldn’t be as many as people hope for and those that do go into health will be directed towards paying for outsourced services.
We’ve seen this movie before. Privatisation by stealth.
2) We will cut taxes to help hardworking Victorians be more financially secure
Cutting seven Labor taxes
Guaranteeing no new taxes or increases to existing taxes
A motherhood statement, absolutely unable to be proven… followed by the Neoliberal mantra of ‘Cutting taxes’… so… code for cutting services. Again.
3) We will support small business and enterprise
Helping more than 28,000 small businesses by increasing the payroll tax threshold from $700,000 to $1.6 million
Helping our natural constituency who we are in politics for… the business community. The business community get enough tax breaks as it is. They also just got Billions from JobKeeper.
Freezing Local Government business fees and charges for four years
So your Council can’t afford to fix the potholes!?! I thought potholes were Public Enemy #1?
Cutting planning and approval red tape
Not that again!?! It just leads to overdevelopment with zero public infrastructure. And, of course they want to cut the Social Housing Levy/’Tax’. Bastards.
And they can’t even come up with a new name for their obligatory Liberal pamphlet:
Our long-term economic plan is our commitment to Victoria and forms part of our Real Solutions plan
Gawd. 🙄
We got a brand new railway station, they left it out I thought. Buried in Ballarat line upgrade.
https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/ballarat-line-upgrad
frednk @ #2727 Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 – 10:10 pm
It looks like they just copied Tony Abbott’s ‘Plan’ and added a few Victorian place names and projects. 😆
On the contract overrun for the Westgate project, a large portion of it was not covered by the state. Labor managed that very well.
Taylormade,
Whilst netball Australia loosing a stack of cash is a bad thing for them. Highlighting the deplorable history of Hancock prospecting has been worth it. Gina’s father was a bad dude. I mean he was capital R racist. Some of the stuff he’s said would have been off the charts racist in the 80’s let alone today.
The players positions is totally understandable, and Gina is not being advised well about the optics of this. But this was the same woman who complained on national TV about how unfair it was African workers only have to be paid $2 a day compared to us Aussies.
Steve777 at 9.59 pm
Meanwhile, this is a significant article on inflation and the lack of wages growth:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-23/growing-profits-and-less-power-for-workers-inflation-targeting/101565352
First few paras are:
‘This period of inflation has reminded us of something important.
It’s reminded us that for the past 30 years, Australia’s economic institutions have been using a particular framework for policy-setting.
And it’s had an anti-worker bias.
Since 1993, authorities have tried to control inflation by keeping wages growth within “reasonable” limits, while letting companies extract whatever profits they can from the economy.’
One for Soc – more Australian trained Engineers.
“An extra 20,000 university places for teachers, nurses and engineers, and 180,000 free TAFE positions in skill shortage areas will be created through a $1bn federal government investment, as the budget downgrades forecasts for Australia’s economic growth.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his first budget on Tuesday, delivering on Labor’s key federal election commitments in areas like skills and training, childcare and health, as well as highlighting significant economic “headwinds” amid a cost-of-living crunch.
Due to high inflation, rising interest rates and “global challenges,” the budget will show real Gross Domestic Product Growth in Australia has been downgraded by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent for 2022-23, and cut one per cent in 2023-24 to just 1.5 per cent.
Mr Chalmers said Australians were aware the economy was facing problems.
“While we have plenty of things going for us, Australians have not been immune from rampant global inflation, heightened uncertainty and cost of living pressures here at home,” he said.
“These headwinds will inevitably impact our growth outlook, and Australians are already feeling the pinch from higher prices and rising interest rates.”
Mr Chalmers said the “best defence” against the economic challenges was a “responsible budget,” which he has described as also being “family friendly” with measures like cheaper medicines, childcare and skills investment.
An extra 180,000 vocational education places, the first of 450,000 promised by Labor at the election, will be available from 2023 through a $550m 12-month National Skills Agreement with the states and territories.
An additional $485.8m has also been included in Tuesday’s federal budget over four years for the university places, which will be for students starting degrees next year and in 2024.
About $176m will go to creating 5935 university places in NSW, $120m for Victoria to create 4283 places, $48m for 1645 extra places in South Australia, $80m for 2811 places in Queensland, and $29m for 831 spots in the Northern Territory.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/labors-budget-to-include-1bn-university-tafe-skills-and-training-investment/news-story/4d54379c6365dc3cfb563496816e9d91?amp
Seems like the UK Tories have a women problem too. Now where does that sound familiar?
“Heather Wheeler, the Tory MP for South Derbyshire, accused the 1922 Committee of a “stitch-up” this morning as she claimed the party was trying to keep Penny Mordaunt – her preferred candidate – off the final ballot.
She told LBC’s Andrew Castle: “I’ve had one of the gentlemen say to me ‘we can’t have another woman, can we?’ and that’s outrageous. So that’s just not acceptable.
“It needs to be a fair fight, I want Penny’s name on the ballot and I wanna have a vote from all of the members.”
Asked about her claims of sexism, Ms Wheeler replied: “There’s always going to be one, isn’t there? Fortunately, I wasn’t really expecting him to vote for us anyway. But I thought I’d give it a go.”
Ms Wheeler also insisted Ms Mordaunt’s total endorsements were “way north” of her public figure of 24.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/23/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-tory-leadership-latest-penny-mordaunt/
Dr Doolittle @ 9.56pm,
There’s nothing like the smell of a freshly baked poll to give us something to chew on. 🙂
Upnorth
Thanks for the news re funded engineering places – so badly needed. Round peg in a round hole.
Just finished watching the cricket. Fantastic last over – swings and roundabouts. India won on the last ball. Bad luck Pakistan, but for a neutral a great watch.
ok where is this cricket stuff on tv?
Socrates says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 10:59 pm
Upnorth
Thanks for the news re funded engineering places – so badly needed. Round peg in a round hole.
Just finished watching the cricket. Fantastic last over – swings and roundabouts. India won on the last ball. Bad luck Pakistan, but for a neutral a great watch.
中华人共和国
No problems Soc. Thanks for the cricket update. Can’t watch up here sounds and like a top game. Night all. Hope you sleep well.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 11:03 pm
“ok where is this cricket stuff on tv?”
One can watch online for free via channel 9. At least I could in Sydney.
What a match. Hats off to Virat Kohli.
Dr Fumbles
The cricket was on one of the Nine free to air channels in Adelaide. As it should be (free to air).
poroti @ Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 10:08 pm:
“Fuck me. Direct from 1950’s US of A we have Joe McCarthy reincarnated and hovering over the Bludger Lounge lest any of our “precious bodily fluids are impurified’.”
——————————————
You sound pretty enraged on behalf of Boerwar. How nice for him to have such a willing White Knight ride in to defend his honour. Since you’re in a sharing mood, please tell us, do you think that we in the West should:
a) help Ukraine resist Russia’s aggression?
b) help Russia defeat Ukraine?
c) help Russia inflict suffering upon Ukraine, in the event that (b) is ineffective?
d) help neither.
If you answer (a) affirmatively, I have no issue with you. Otherwise, I will take every opportunity I have to criticise you for it. I promise to treat everyone else here the same.
Poroti, further to the above: are you suggesting that a present-day determination to oppose, in all its forms, arguments that excuse or normalise Putin’s unprovoked war of aggression, and all the war crimes and crimes against humanity his forces have perpetrated in Ukraine, is as misconceived as a McCarthyist witch hunt?
Upnorth at 10.37 pm
Patrick Flynn, another of the RW nutter Tory brigade, says Sunak will get over half of the parliamentary votes in the three horse race, i.e. at least 200. Most unlikely to lose. Johnson is too big a risk for Tories now.
Sunak will be unpopular as PM. Since election is unlikely until 2024, unless Tories fracture fully, the Johnson regurgitation looks awfully premature.
Once Sunak fails, the next Tory leader contest will probably be between Johnson v Mordaunt.