Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)

Albanese’s strong ratings remain effectively unchanged; attitudes towards stage three tax cuts finely balanced.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,757 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 56
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  1. Upnorth
    China has had in the past periods of civil war, wars of conquest, drought and famine that have caused similar levels of population collapse.
    It always comes good in the end.

  2. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:49 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:53 pm

    This is an example of the costs of industrialisation being fully externalised….the costs are being borne across the entire ecosystem. Presumably the costs are not exhausted either, but produce feedback for many decades or even centuries.

  3. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:54 pm

    The accumulation of monetary wealth is an interesting phenomenon. I see it basically as an insecurity, at a personal level, and even at a national level, whilst happily I can accomodate having a kitty, of substance, for the unforeseen. In the acquisition and retention of large amounts of money, what interests me is how it is acquired, and what is done with it. I wonder, supported by some observation, if the least adequate, in a psychological, and while I’m going for it, a spiritual, sense are the more likely to acquire, and retain, beyond reasonable measure.
    中华人民共和国
    Totally agree with you Itza. The Chinese have collective memory of many famines and little Government support. Combine that Confucian frugality and family groupings – it helps explain the saving psyche.

    However past a certain point, wealth is a “compensator” for other inadequacies. I have said here before some of the richest people I know are the most miserable whilst some of the poorest I have lived, worked and are friends with the happiest.

  4. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:56 pm

    Upnorth
    China has had in the past periods of civil war, wars of conquest, drought and famine that have caused similar levels of population collapse.
    It always comes good in the end.
    中华人民共和国
    This is correct cobber. The introduction of Corn (Maize) into China for example, helped grow the population massively. Maos’ Great Leap Forward and the resultant famine lead to the death of bewteen 15-55 million people (no one knows the true figure). The Taiping Rebellion over 20 million.

    The USSR lost about 27 million during WW2.

  5. Old Hat, I feel that too. Luckily for life on this planet it is measured in millions of years. We humans though will have left an abrupt mark, perhaps for others to judge.

  6. One in the eye for the Albo haters.

    “Exclusive: Anthony Albanese’s half-brother has opened up for the first time about their long-distance relationship, forged by chance and determination 12 years ago — across two hemispheres.

    Ruggerio Albanese, an itinerant electrician from Barletta, a small town above Italy’s sun-drenched southern heel, spoke candidly and fondly of the Australian Prime Minister when he sat down with News Corp for an exclusive interview this month.

    He told of his joy at learning his half Italo-Aussie brother had ascended to the top job Down Under, of the things they have in common and how proud his late father was to learn he had another — albeit illegitimate — son.

    Ruggerio said the pair stayed in touch, sporadically, through a WhatsApp family message group, along with his sister, nieces and nephews.

    “We communicate mostly on WhatsApp, we say funny things about our dogs and the beach – he knows my two loves are my wife and the beach – but not much more because I think he’s very busy,” Ruggerio said, still clad in a tracksuit top and shorts after finishing work at 8pm.

    The 52-year-old recalls one jovial text exchange he shared with Mr Albanese about their boisterous dogs, from his 9th floor apartment on the outskirts of Barletta.

    “My Toto,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese replied with a picture of himself and his excitable cavoodle on the lounge, accompanied by laughing and cringing emojis.

    When the Labor leader was voted into government with a majority election win on May 21, the Italian Albaneses sent a jubilant WhatsApp message congratulating him the next day. “Thank you so much xx” Mr Albanese responded, to the group chat.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/halfbrother-of-prime-minister-anthony-albanese-reveals-the-bond-they-share-for-first-time/news-story/7155127610c79b9539b3c24c076d5b7a?amp

  7. Boerwar at 12:56 pm

    Upnorth
    China has had in the past periods of civil war, wars of conquest, drought and famine that have caused similar levels of

    What ever befalls them they’d be able to say ‘Been there done that…………..several times.’
    I just thought of a quick test to measure someone’s age. Ask them if they can remember when the fretting about the Chinese population was about overpopulation 🙂

  8. I had a rather disheartening discussion with a barrister the other night. If you had to stereotype, he is in the right wing, private school, Adelaide Club male bubble, but with plenty of ability to reason for himself and exposure to information beyond that bubble.

    Suffice to say we disagreed on a substantial matter currently in the news. In reading up about the various nuances of this discussion I came across this article that I thought I would share.

    https://time.com/5413814/he-said-she-said-kavanaugh-ford-mitchell/

  9. Over my lifetime – I’m approaching 70 – I have accumulated almost nothing in a material sense. My net monetary worth would not exceed a few hundred dollars at any given time. I frequently have negative net financial worth.

    Fortunately, I suppose, I’ve learned to not measure my self-worth in financial terms. My income is very small. It’s too small to allow for much saving. So I make no effort these days to save anything. I spend my modest income on learning new things: on self-improvement. So I’m while I’m not a saver, nor am I much of a consumer either. I am the occupant and operator of a very small and – however long it lasts – a too brief life.

  10. For our resident Submarine wonks.

    “Exclusive: An AUKUS visa will be considered by the Albanese government to ensure Australia has enough skilled workers to deliver on the pact’s commitment to defence innovation.

    And News Corp can reveal talks are already underway with our AUKUS partners to send Australian workers to American and British shipyards to hone their skills building nuclear-powered submarines before a domestic facility is up and running.

    While the US has been progressing legislation for Australian submarine officers to train on American boats, the federal government is also focused on ensuring the domestic workforce required to build nuclear-powered submarines has adequate experience.

    The idea of an AUKUS visa – covering skilled workers such as engineers, cyber professionals, military personnel and electronic warfare specialists – was proposed earlier this year by United States Studies Centre defence and foreign policy non-resident fellow Jennifer Jackett.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/aukus-visa-will-be-considered-by-albanese-government/news-story/82338049b15cdcc54a5ae35f8c67ce4a?amp

  11. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:16 pm

    Old Hat, I feel that too. Luckily for life on this planet it is measured in millions of years. We humans though will have left an abrupt mark, perhaps for others to judge.

    We have to look to “life” as a universal value – as a class of which we are but a subset. “Life” is also something that relies on and interacts with the inorganic.

  12. Old Hat says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    Over my lifetime – I’m approaching 70 – I have accumulated almost nothing in a material sense. My net monetary worth would not exceed a few hundred dollars at any given time. I frequently have negative net financial worth.

    Fortunately, I suppose, I’ve learned to not measure my self-worth in financial terms. My income is very small. It’s too small to allow for much saving. So I make no effort these days to save anything. I spend my modest income on learning new things: on self-improvement. So I’m while I’m not a saver, nor am I much of a consumer either. I am the occupant and operator of a very small and – however long it lasts – a too brief life.
    中华人民共和国
    Well put cobber – well put. I buried my best mate when he was 25. Died of Lung Cancer (never smoked a day in his life). Horrible to watch as he faded and passed, but he made me promise to enjoy my life, we don’t get a second go at it (unless you are Buddhist). I feel I am also living for my cobber.

  13. fyi
    everything after & including the question mark – ? – is tracking data, used by advertisters, their accomplices, et al. to track your friends’ movements after they leave this place. this i picked up from marcy wheeler’s site ’empty wheel’. try it.
    for example, this :-
    https://twitter.com/sopphie/status/1582145734161313793
    will take you (untracked) to the same place as this :-
    https://twitter.com/sopphie/status/1582145734161313793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582145734161313793%7Ctwgr%5Ef5fee616de134ead5fdd23983d4a69561ebf2554%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2022%2F09%2F19%2F20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitlers-early-rhetoric-and-policies%2Fcomment-page-6%2Fcomments

  14. Ganja on the nose in Thailand.

    Opposition parties plan to ask Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) to dissolve the Bhumjaithai Party, for alleged violation of the Political Parties Act, over its policy to decriminalise cannabis.

    Opposition leader Chonlanan Srikaew said on Monday that the Bhumjaithai Party’s flagship policy was designed to curry favour among the people for political gain, which is against the law, citing Section 92 of the organic law regarding political parties.

    He claimed that the Bhumjaithai Party’s liberal cannabis policy is a separate issue from the Narcotics Bill, initiated by the Bhumjaithai Party to decriminalise cannabis.

    Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/opposition-will-ask-ec-to-dissolve-bhumjaithai-party-over-its-liberal-cannabis-policy/

  15. Part of the prosecution’s summing up:

    [‘Summing up his arguments, prosecutor Shane Drumgold, SC, said the essence of the case was whether Higgins made up the allegation against Lehrmann.

    “If she did, it was elaborate,” he said, adding Higgins had given a consistent story to friends, colleagues, several police, government ministers, and their staff.

    “We submit not a single inconsistency in what she said occurred has been revealed in all that time.”

    Drumgold said the main allegation against Higgins was that she fabricated the story to keep her job after her and Lehrmann’s entry to Parliament House after hours triggered a security incident.

    “If this is a fabrication, she is also quite the actor, ranging from being upset, to being completely upset, and being broken,” he said.

    Drumgold said the apparent ruse would have had to be so effective that it left her unrecognisable to her own mother.

    He said if the jury was satisfied beyond reasonable doubt of Higgins’ account, “it follows that the only verdict you can return is guilty”.

    Court has broken for lunch and defence barrister Steven Whybrow will address the jury when it returns.’] – SMH blog.

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:39 pm
    Singaporean PM Lee and PM Albanese on ABC having a press conference now.

    中华人民共和国
    “Majulah Singapura” (Onwards Singapore)

  17. ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:26 pm
    All the best to you Dr John. I hope you have, have had, will have, whatever love and resources you need. I was aware of my same sex attraction pretty early on, and wonder if that helped in raising an index of suspicion of unwanted approaches, a lesser innocence and greater alertness to sinister intents, if you know what I mean. I had a few close calls, and all the charm of a nasty poofter bashing as an adult, but I was a biggish solid lad and man, fit, and able to take care of myself, and never taken advantage of at an age before I understood what was going on, whatever age that is. As that as an altar boy, and with Christian Bros schooling.

    Are you in NSW may I ask?
    ____________________
    Bayside Melbourne.

  18. The USSR lost about 27 million during WW2.

    Something like 80-90% of the total WW2 deahts were either Chinese or Soviet.

    A lot of Ukrainians died in ww2. Some of Antony Beevors more graphic descriptions of WW2 brutality are from that region to the point one of his books got banned in Ukraine.

  19. Upnorth at 12:33 pm

    policy was designed to curry favour among the people for political gain, which is against the law

    That seems to be an odd thing to be illegal.

  20. Upnorth
    You may be interested in (and indeed gloat) over the imminent collapse of Rah-Rah in England
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/oct/15/wasps-worcester-sad-implosion-warning-call-rugby-union

    We could start with the sheer catastrophic waste of it all. All those years, all those hundreds of millions of pounds squandered. All the fudged decisions and fingers‑crossed accounting. The oceans of bullshit, the overflowing reservoirs of self‑interest. And yet that’s still not the most upsetting element. Worse is the numbing pain for everyone associated with two disintegrating clubs and the human cost of English rugby’s days of reckoning

    Interesting that the opening match of the RLWC got 45,000 spectators and 1.4 M viewers despite being played at St James, Newcastle. A RU city where League has failed in its 127 years to establish a sustainable team

  21. Simon Katichsays: Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:49 pm

    The USSR lost about 27 million during WW2.

    Something like 80-90% of the total WW2 deahts were either Chinese or Soviet.

    **************************************************************************

    WW 2 – the Russians paid a very great price militarily and in its people sacrifices in helping to defeat the Nazis and many historians I have read agree – Nazi Germany Could Have Won World War II, Until It Invaded Russia

    The Red Army was “the main engine of Nazism’s destruction,” writes British historian and journalist Max Hastings in “Inferno: The World at War, 1939-1945.” The Soviet Union paid the harshest price: though the numbers are not exact, an estimated 26 – 27 million Soviet citizens died during World War II, including as many as 11 million soldiers. At the same time, the Germans suffered three-quarters of their wartime losses fighting the Red Army.

    “It was the Western Allies’ extreme good fortune that the Russians, and not themselves, paid almost the entire ‘butcher’s bill’ for [defeating Nazi Germany], accepting 95 per cent of the military casualties of the three major powers of the Grand Alliance,” writes Hastings.

    Churchill –” the Russians tore the guts out of the German Army ”

    What happened after that to their contribution to democracy may well be a much different story …. but ….

  22. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:49 pm
    Upnorth at 12:33 pm

    policy was designed to curry favour among the people for political gain, which is against the law
    That seems to be an odd thing to be illegal.
    中华人民共和国
    Oh Amazing Thailand is an odd place at the best of times. I fit right in.

  23. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 1:50 pm
    Upnorth
    You may be interested in (and indeed gloat) over the imminent collapse of Rah-Rah in England
    中华人民共和国
    Gloat, gloat, gloat Cobber. 🙂

  24. @ OC was taught from young

    Cricket for the Cricket Season
    Rugby League for the Football Season
    Labor for the Voting Season

    Growing up in a heavily National Party voting town made the final one interesting!

  25. @ OC was taught from young

    Cricket for the Cricket Season
    Rugby League for the Football Season
    Labor for the Voting Season

    Growing up in a heavily National Party voting town made the final one interesting

  26. Sceptic @ #166 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 1:37 pm

    Philip Thalis is an architect and former independent City of Sydney councillor. …
    “Barangaroo stands as the physical manifestation of an opaque and corrupted process.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/barangaroo-is-rubbish-and-now-its-wretched-offspring-are-spawning-across-sydney-20221017-p5bq9a.html

    Philip might say corrupted process.. in reality it’s outright corruption.

    I’d add this at the outset:

    I was part of the winning team – Hill Thalis Architecture + Urban Projects, Jane Irwin Landscape Architecture and Paul Berkemeier Architect – for the 2005-6 international competition for this 22 hectares of publicly owned foreshore, a 1.2km-long stretch of the city centre’s harbour front. Of 137 entrants, this scheme was unanimously selected by the NSW government-appointed jury.

    It was Town Hall vs the Government. And then Keating, and then it got complicated (there is little love between Keating and Town Hall) who today thinks the result is good enough to be *his gift*, his gift to Sydney.

    Keating cannot resist noting Labor blood flows through the driving forces behind the city’s icons. “Jack Lang gave Sydney the Harbour Bridge. Joe Cahill gave Sydney the Opera House. And I gave Sydney Barangaroo.”

    This is a good summary I think – a gift of a curse?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-gift-or-a-curse-keating-s-barangaroo-vision-10-years-on-20221010-p5bopj.html?collection=p5bpfy

  27. Dreyfus needs to remove the ‘exceptional circumstances’ prerequisite for public hearings.

    ‍⚖️The National Integrity Committee of former judges has welcomed the Government’s NACC legislation but warned that the exceptional circumstances prerequisite for public hearings would undermine the public interest without further amendments to the Bill" https://t.co/WVlKMW0s2W pic.twitter.com/zdAgbwMHts— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) October 17, 2022

  28. Ph_Red
    Worth keeping in mind that Stalin wasnt a softy when it came to valuing the lives of his soldiers. Not to mention how many were killed by the barrier troops.

  29. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 2:30 pm
    Worth keeping in mind that Stalin wasnt a softy when it came to valuing the lives of his soldiers. Not to mention how many were killed by the barrier troops.
    中华人民共和国
    “Quantity has a quality all of its own” Uncle Joe famously said.

  30. Simon Katichsays: Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 2:30 pm

    Ph_Red

    Worth keeping in mind that Stalin wasnt a softy when it came to valuing the lives of his soldiers. Not to mention how many were killed by the barrier troops.

    ***************************************************************

    The Katyn massacre was a series of mass executions of nearly 22,000 Polish military officers and intelligentsia prisoners of war carried out by the Soviet Union, specifically the NKVD in April and May 1940.

    From 1945 to 1948, the Soviets deported to forced labor or concentration camps in the Soviet Union from 3,000,000 to 6,000,000 Poles, of which 585,000 may have died. Hundreds of thousands and possibly near 1,000,000 Poles were killed in Soviet terror and repression.

    However – While Westerners tend to see the war through the lens of events such as D-Day or the Battle of Britain, it was a conflict largely won by the Soviet Union. An incredible eight out of 10 German war casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.

  31. phoenixRED at 2:33 pm
    The poor bloody Polish seemed on everyone’s hate list and got it from both sides.

    Massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia
    ……….by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or the UPA, with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population .The UPA’s actions resulted in between 50,000 and 100,000 deaths..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia

    Bloodlands
    …..between the two of them, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union killed about 200,000 Polish citizens in the period 1939–1941

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloodlands

  32. Times like this in Victoria just reminds me how out of touch and detached from reality Morrison was/is when he went holidaying in Hawaii when Australia burned. The scariest, most unhinged political leader since federation.

  33. BoM’s Michael Efron says more rain is on its way to Vic, starting in the north with thunderstorms and heavy rain throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thursday activity extends further south, localised heavy falls of up to 50mm, could cause flash flooding and river rises.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) October 18, 2022

    Friday it extends across the state 5-15mm, with the northeast to see up to 50mm. Further showers and storms across the eastern parts of the state on Saturday. Sunday/Monday another low pressure system to develop.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) October 18, 2022

    Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp says there’s been more than 7000 requests for assistance – 700 of which have been flood rescues: “So 10% of the work of the SES and emergency services has been rescuing people in situations are very much preventable”.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) October 18, 2022

  34. Defence closing submissions:

    [‘Whybrow said the case could be summed up by concluding Brittany Higgins didn’t know what happened to her.

    The defence barrister urged the jury to focus on Higgins’ actions rather than Lehrmann’s, saying she did not tell the truth about visiting doctors following the alleged assault.

    He also singled out a bruise on Higgins’ leg that she told the court she “assumed” was caused by the alleged attack.

    Addressing the number of people Higgins told about the allegation, Whybrow said, “if you go tell 100 people something happened, that doesn’t in and of itself make it true”.

    “We can probably sum up this case in the kindest way to Ms Higgins … and just say she doesn’t know what happened,” he said, referring to her level of intoxication on the morning of the alleged incident. “You could not be satisfied that you know what happened.”

    …Whybrow said “what we do know for a fact [is] that Ms Higgins passed out, fell asleep in the minister for defence industries’ private office and is seen by a security guard naked”.

    “This case is not about whether I have convinced you whether she made a false complaint,” Whybrow said in his closing submissions.

    “Mr Lehrmann has no onus to prove anything.

    “I’m going to make some submissions to suggest the learned prosecutor didn’t necessarily accurately or completely summarise the evidence.

    “In some parts, you may have thought we were in a different case.”

    Whybrow put to the jury it already knew Bruce Lehrmann had been subjected to trial by media.

    He challenged prosecutor Shane Drumgold’s assertion that Higgins had a right to be scared about the political consequences of making a complaint, asking where the proof of that was.

    He also contrasted Drumgold’s position that there were political forces at play, saying there were none “other than from Ms Higgins”.] – SMH Blog.

    It goes without saying that there were political considerations at play. How would’ve it been publicly perceived in the lead-up to the 2019 election that a staffer allegedly raped another staffer in the office of a cabinet minister(?). Whybrow’s clutching at straws.

  35. Mavis @ #192 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 2:06 pm

    It goes without saying that there were political considerations at play. How would’ve it been publicly perceived in the lead-up to the 2019 election that a staffer allegedly raped another staffer in the office of a cabinet minister(?). Whybrow’s clutching at straws.

    Watch him win anyways. 🙁

  36. The Poles are not without a sense of macabre humour when it comes to dealing with their two large, historically aggressive neighbours.
    A Polish officer had the task of executing a German and a Russian and is asked by a subordinate which he will shoot first. The officer replies…..”Well, the Russian of course…Business before pleasure…”
    Obviously, the best part of the joke is that whether it is the Russian first or the German it makes no difference.
    The Poles are not innocents abroad and they have gone to war with their own neighbours such as Lithuania and Ukraine in the past.
    In the early 1920’s the Russian Army took on the Poles led by Marshall Pilsudski and the Russians came off very second best at the time…..

  37. Mavis @ 3.06
    Thanks for the update on this miserable matter. We hardly need another example of the way victims are treated in the courts.
    It does surprise me that a person who was so pissed that they were unable to put their shoes back on, was then able to completely disrobe before falling asleep on their employer’s couch.
    From personal experience, albeit not recent, disrobing without some third-party assistance appears unlikely under the circumstances.

  38. “We can probably sum up this case in the kindest way to Ms Higgins … and just say she doesn’t know what happened,” he said, referring to her level of intoxication on the morning of the alleged incident. “You could not be satisfied that you know what happened.”

    And that is the nub. A lawyer claiming as she was drunk, the balance of probability is that she was too drunk to know if she was raped. Open season on drunk women? FFS.

    How about this, if she was too drunk to remember what happened then she was too drunk to consent.

  39. a r says:

    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 3:12 pm

    Mavis @ #192 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 2:06 pm

    [‘It goes without saying that there were political considerations at play. How would’ve it been publicly perceived in the lead-up to the 2019 election that a staffer allegedly raped another staffer in the office of a cabinet minister(?). Whybrow’s clutching at straws.

    Watch him win anyways. ‘]

    Possibly but the evidence of the security officer when she entered
    Reynolds’ office to find Higgins naked and in the foetal position is difficult to reconcile, bearing in mind Lehrmann’s claim that no sex occurred, either consensual or nonconsensual.

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