Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)

Albanese’s strong ratings remain effectively unchanged; attitudes towards stage three tax cuts finely balanced.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,757 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)”

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  1. Late Riser @ #83 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 9:28 am

    He presents arguments supporting the idea of China’s population collapse, and what follows from that.

    I have instant skepticism of anyone who talks seriously about the idea of “population collapse”. It seems to be the latest right-wing plaything, advanced by people who mostly just want to see exponential growth continue forever; damn the expense, environmental consequences, and any concept that the planet may actually have a finite carrying capacity.

    Realistically the population might (and should, barring access to a new planet or sudden global abundance of sustainable energy) plateau. Maybe decline slightly in some places. But it’ll never collapse because birth rates naturally scale up and down to match available resources. If the population starts going down, that just means fewer people are sharing the same amount of resources. Everyone that’s left has more resources overall, so new births increase.

    Outright population collapse just isn’t something people do. Not in the way the right-wing doomsday prophets like to describe, anyways.

  2. TPOF well said!
    Julia Gillard is also one of my heroes.
    One reason why I indirectly assisted her in the Trade Union Royal Commission..

  3. dave,
    Not to mention, this:

    Military research groups at the leading edge of China’s hypersonics and missile programs — many on a U.S. export blacklist — are purchasing a range of specialized American technology, including products developed by firms that have received millions of dollars in grants and contracts from the Pentagon, a Washington Post investigation has found.

    .. The advanced software products are acquired by these military organizations through private Chinese firms that sell them on despite U.S. export controls designed to prevent sales or resales to foreign entities deemed a threat to U.S. national security, the investigation shows.

    Scientists who work in the sprawling network of Chinese military research academies and the companies that aid them said in interviews that American technology — such as highly specialized aeronautical engineering software — fills critical gaps in domestic technology and is key to advances in Chinese weaponry.

    The Washington Post mapped more than 300 sales since 2019 of U.S.-origin technology to dozens of entities involved in China’s hypersonics or missile programs by analyzing contract solicitation and award documents issued by the groups, as well as speaking to six Chinese scientists working in military labs and universities who described almost unfettered access to American technology with applications in the design and testing of missiles. The scientists spoke to The Post on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive research.

    The steady stream of high-end software flowing to a critical area of research in which the Chinese military threatens to outpace the United States highlights the challenge Washington has in trying to prevent China’s military from exploiting American innovation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/17/china-hypersonic-missiles-american-technology/

  4. a r @ #101 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 11:03 am

    Late Riser @ #83 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 9:28 am

    He presents arguments supporting the idea of China’s population collapse, and what follows from that.

    I have instant skepticism of anyone who talks seriously about the idea of “population collapse”. It seems to be the latest right-wing plaything, advanced by people who mostly just want to see exponential growth continue forever; damn the expense, environmental consequences, and any concept that the planet may actually have a finite carrying capacity.

    Realistically the population might (and should, barring access to a new planet or sudden global abundance of sustainable energy) plateau. Maybe decline slightly in some places. But it’ll never collapse because birth rates naturally scale up and down to match available resources. If the population starts going down, that just means fewer people are sharing the same amount of resources. Everyone that’s left has more resources overall, so new births increase.

    Outright population collapse just isn’t something people do. Not in the way the right-wing doomsday prophets like to describe, anyways.

    Indeed. As Peter Costello famously said: “One for Mum, one for Dad, and one for the Fossil Fuel Cartel”.


  5. a rsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:14 am
    Ven @ #72 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 8:47 am

    So Russia thinks US will collapse and US and Europe think that Russian collapse is imminent.

    And everyone is right. It’s China’s time now.

    But if you ask Western countries’s experts, they think China’s collapse is imminent because their property market is on the verge of collapse.

    Interesting times.

  6. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 9:20 am

    We can only hope that someone like him wouldn’t get a look-in here.

    I’ll bet you a fish curry it is possible.
    中华人民共和国
    So what of fish is involved?


  7. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:20 am
    B.S. Fairman at 9.47 am

    Hunt pretended to affirm that Truss would still be PM by Xmas. Very unlikely since she ducked question time yesterday to chat with key backbenchers.

    One can imagine a car-sticker:

    With TRUSS we’re SUSS.
    Joke TORY!

    Not needed as so obvious. Sir John Courtice was cited saying no way Tories can recover now.

    Dr. D
    I read yesterday that Truss could be replaced by October 24th, 2022.
    Will Hunt become PM by default?


  8. Simon Katichsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 8:51 am
    Jeepers. Just when you thought it might be safe to go outside, an A+ rated Sienna Poll has the Republicans up in the Generic Ballot by 3pts and Trump up by 1pt over Biden (for 2024).

    It appears American people want to help Putin by electing Republicans to win US Mid-term elections. 🙂
    or
    make Martyanov prediction come true.

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:52 am
    Stephen Bartholomeusz’ article about the effect on China of America’s new CHIPS Act is very informative.
    ———————————————————————————————-

    C@T thanks for that article. Given China’s constant theft of computer and chip IP (just for starters) over the years, I’ve often wondered why the US didn’t take such action years ago. It seems like a no-brainer. I wonder how effective it will be?

  10. An expensive nimby for residents..
    .

    Sophie Aubrey@sopphie
    The $20-25m levee project was fully planned and had $5.8m in government grants when the council dumped it in June 2020 amid community concerns over the loss of river views, access and habitat and spending priorities. #vicfloods
    https://twitter.com/sopphie/status/1582145734161313793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582145734161313793%7Ctwgr%5Ef5fee616de134ead5fdd23983d4a69561ebf2554%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2022%2F09%2F19%2F20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitlers-early-rhetoric-and-policies%2Fcomment-page-6%2Fcomments


  11. Snappy Tomsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:47 am
    Thanks BK

    Jack Waterford wonders if Albanese is up to the job of public service reform.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-albanese-up-to-the-job-of-public-service-reform/
    ____________

    A new “test for Albo/Labor” variant: “is he up to it?” (Which somewhat assumes what the author wants is indisputably good…)

    BB was at his best while dissecting Waterford articles. BB used shine light on Waterford BS. 🙂


  12. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:55 am
    Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:47 am
    Thanks BK

    Jack Waterford wonders if Albanese is up to the job of public service reform.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-albanese-up-to-the-job-of-public-service-reform/
    ____________

    A new “test for Albo/Labor” variant: “is he up to it?” (Which somewhat assumes what the author wants is indisputably good…)

    __________________________________

    The commentariat across the political spectrum almost entirely stayed silent while the Coalition wrought havoc on the body politic and the structure of government and society for over a decade (including Abbott’s Opposition). A few (like Waterford) started saying something in the last few months before the demise of Morrison’s government, but most had a bet each way in their commentary (same, same etc).

    Now they are all coming out of the woodwork with demands that the Albanese Labor government address the huge number of problems that were created or worsened under the Coalition and while these commentariat people were watching.

    Labor has learnt that its ‘friends’ are not trustworthy and only after their own interests and agendas. This government will govern for the people, not for those who yelp the loudest about their favourite agenda (whether worthy or not).

    With friends like Rex and nath who needs…….

  13. Arrested for Playing Rugby League – Buddha Wept

    “After almost 20 years of struggles, including players being arrested simply for playing rugby league and games being scheduled at midnight to avoid the authorities, the score didn’t matter to Steve Georgallis.

    Greece are up for the Cup: it’s a cause for celebration in itself.

    “It’ll sink in later on with a few ouzos,” Georgallis said after a gallant 34-12 loss to France in their World Cup opener in Doncaster on Monday night (Tuesday AEDT).

    The Western Suburbs warhorse has been there throughout Greece’s international existence. The captain, coach and five-eighth from the nation’s first game in 2003 has guided a proud rugby league community – which has produced NRL names like Anasta, Peponis, Politis and V’landys – through an odyssey worthy of Greek mythology in recent years.

    “When the bus was leaving, I just thought about all the tough times and hard years we’ve had to get here,” Georgallis said.

    “And then it actually turned to joy when we got off the bus. You saw how much it meant to them to play for Greece. I’m just so proud of them.”

    After years of political battles that make Manly’s troubles look like a parents’ group spat, the Greek Rugby League Federation (GRLF) was finally recognised as the game’s legal governing body on home soil in August.

    Despite being recognised as the nation’s legitimate flagbearers at international level, political connections held by the previous administration went a long way.

    The GRLF was deemed unlawful, the national side too when it tried to play World Cup qualifiers in Greece.

    Police were called to halt domestic games, players were arrested simply for playing.

    ‘Stevey’s told me the story of how far they’ve come, all they’ve dealt with, and it’s a proud day.’
    Nick Politis

    “Some of the boys have been in courthouses and police stations just for playing rugby league,” Georgallis told AAP this week. “We’d get called to help them with money for a lawyer.”

    Club matches were scheduled in the middle of the night to avoid the authorities. Greece’s 2018 World Cup qualifier against Malta was played in Athens, but the rest were moved to London to save the hassle.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/nrl/how-greece-dodged-the-police-to-make-world-cup-history-20221018-p5bqjw.html

  14. a r says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 11:03 am

    Realistically the population might (and should, barring access to a new planet or sudden global abundance of sustainable energy) plateau. Maybe decline slightly in some places. But it’ll never collapse because birth rates naturally scale up and down to match available resources. If the population starts going down, that just means fewer people are sharing the same amount of resources. Everyone that’s left has more resources overall, so new births increase.
    —————————————-
    Birth rates are virtually independent of resources. In fact the trend is that the more resources there are the fewer the births.

  15. Cronus @ #112 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 11:23 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:52 am
    Stephen Bartholomeusz’ article about the effect on China of America’s new CHIPS Act is very informative.
    ———————————————————————————————-

    C@T thanks for that article. Given China’s constant theft of computer and chip IP (just for starters) over the years, I’ve often wondered why the US didn’t take such action years ago. It seems like a no-brainer. I wonder how effective it will be?

    Like people here say about John Howard’s gun laws, there are people now who say that the best thing Donald Trump did in office was to alert the world to the stealth threat of China, now more obvious and overt.

    Sure, you can argue that it’s China’s turn and they should be allowed to dominate global geopolitics as America has done, but I just can’t get past the one thing that differentiates China from America, one is a democracy, however flawed, and the other is a ruthless Totalitarian One Party State, led by a dictator who can’t be removed from office by the people any more, nor his party. So, if America want to put a spoke in his wheelhouse, I’m all for it.

    No, I’m not for America Uber Alles. I’m just not for China Uber Alles.

  16. AR

    “ India’s time, then?”

    Possibly, but I think another situation is more likely now.

    We have grown used to US dominance and assume it will be followed by Chinese dominance. It may.

    But for much of history, and the recent cold war, there was competition between powers and blocs that did not mean dominance. It is the “strategic competition” bit the strategists talk of. We are in it now, and it might last for some time.

    When I posted that article about Xi, China’s economic policy and declining growth, I meant to imply China may not become dominant as we (and they) had in the past assumed. But I did not mean to imply China will collapse. Growth might decline but China is already powerful and will stay that way.

    I don’t know how things will turn out, but there are multiple possibilities. The trick for Australia is to choose strategy that lets us survive in each of them.

  17. It would have been a click bait hunting subbie who put that headline in. But Waterford gets one thing right.

    Reforming the APS is a massive task.

    The APS was systematically gutted as ministerial offices took control.

    Whole Departments need systemic clean outs. Guess the values of the sort of public servants in the Immigration Department prospered under Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison?

    As talented people left in droves and as ministers’ mates got the contracts, skill levels have declined. The upskilling needed is phenomenal.

    Market failure in the aged care sector is putting huge pressure on the APS.

    The NDIS is close to being out of APS managerial control.

    Systemic rorting by the public and by the private sector has become endemic. These floods will bring with them a flood of false claims.

  18. Boerwar @ #117 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 10:45 am

    Birth rates are virtually independent of resources. In fact the trend is that the more resources there are the fewer the births.

    You’re conflating resources with wealth. The more wealthy a society is in general, the fewer births. Because if it’s $15 for some smashed avo on a slice of bread, $200k for an education, and $1m for a home, who can afford children? Birth rates go up when food and space/real-estate and other things physically required by children are overabundant and dirt cheap within a society. Conditions more likely to exist in poor societies than wealthy ones.

  19. a r says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    Boerwar @ #117 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 10:45 am

    Birth rates are virtually independent of resources. In fact the trend is that the more resources there are the fewer the births.

    You’re conflating resources with wealth. The more wealthy a society is in general, the fewer births. Because if it’s $15 for some smashed avo on a slice of bread, $200k for an education, and $1m for a home, who can afford children? Birth rates go up when food and space/real-estate and other things physically required by children are overabundant and dirt cheap within a society. Conditions more likely to exist in poor societies than wealthy ones.
    ____________
    But is it true that within wealthy societies that poorer people have more children than the wealthy?

  20. ar

    Birth rates go up when food and space/real-estate and other things physically required by children are overabundant and dirt cheap within a society.

    Childhood mortality rates are also in there somewhere.

  21. China does face a population collapse. This will make worse the age trap inherent in their demographic pyramid.
    Why?
    1. The transition from rural dominant to urban dominant population has generally been in many countries a signal for couples to have fewer babies. In the country they are labour. In the cities they are an economic burden.
    2. The draconian one child program worked. The result is that the ‘pyramid’ is close to being inverted.
    3. The one child program created a situation in which some 30 million female fetuses were aborted. Men have yet to figure out how to give birth themselves.
    4. Increasing education and wealth levels of women in many countries lead to women wanting to have far fewer babies. This appears to be the case in China.
    5. The one child policy generated a princess generation. Around 7 million princesses currently prefer not to marry at all. Some are marrying late as they search for wealthier husbands. The general rule is that the later the marriage in any country, the fewer births per woman. In general the princesses will not have children if single.
    6. The Chicommies, having bastardized the reproductive rights of a generation of Chinese in a most vicious way, also got their census data badly wrong. How wrong, nobody knows. Certainly by tens of millions. One result is that the technocrats were caught with their pants down. They did not realize until far too late what was happening to birth rates.
    7. China’s ratio of aged to young people is zooming.

    China faces a perfect demographic storm. Short of the Chicommies starting to force women to give birth, which I would not put past them, China’s population will certainly decline by hundreds of millions by the close of this century. The open question is by how many hundreds of millions and by when. Whether to call that ‘a population collapse’ is a matter of definition.

  22. C@t:

    Like people here say about John Howard’s gun laws, there are people now who say that the best thing Donald Trump did in office was to alert the world to the stealth threat of China, now more obvious and overt.

    The “pivot to Asia” was done for some reason, and the only possible reason was China. Similarly, the TPP was 90% security wrapped inside a trading arrangement.

    The only thing one might attribute to Mr Trump is that his incompetence and/or private-dealing with China (for golf courses etc) flushed out Chinese misbehaviour and caused them to overreach in the expectation that Mr Trump would be re-elected and the United States consequently incapacitated: when the Cat’s away, the mice shall play!

    Mr Howard’s gun laws were of a completely different nature

  23. Upnorth
    If I remember it correctly, the Greek government wanted the Rugby League to be administered by the Rugby Union organisation – (that would work)

    All a bit reminiscent of the Vichy French banning Rugby à Treize and giving all its resources to Rugby à Quinze – largely on the grounds that professional sport was the work of the devil or at least the Front Populaire

  24. Ven

    So Russia thinks US will collapse and US and Europe think that Russian collapse is imminent.
    ————
    Both, of course may eventuate, for different reasons and at different times.

  25. Evidently male fertility is declining at the rate of 1% pa. This has been the trend for a couple of decades. By the end of this century, without very widespread medico-technical intervention, the global human population will be in deep decline. The politics of population and demography will have a profoundly existential importance.

    Competitor species might have improved chances as a result of our decline….can’t be a bad thing.

  26. Donald Trump finally served with a court order in $250 million fraud lawsuit — after refusing for weeks

    The lawsuit is part of a years-long fraud investigation claiming that the Trump Org. had a practice of exaggerating the sizes of assets and artificially inflating their value to score capital and deflating them for tax breaks or refunds.

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-org-served-ny-lawsuit/

  27. Old Hat

    I agree.

    Even for the survival of homo sapiens, a halving of human population to “only” four billion (by peaceful means), would be no bad thing for the health of our own ecosystem. That was the population level in the 1960s, which did not lack for culture or opportunities.

  28. 3. The one child program created a situation in which some 30 million female fetuses were aborted. Men have yet to figure out how to give birth themselves.

    The flip side of that might be 30 million or so “spare” men. What Xi might think to do to channel those men in other directions worries me. (Because I can only think of military distractions.)

  29. At the most recent meeting in October, the process that I have described culminated in a decision to increase the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.6 per cent. There was no doubt that a further increase in interest rates was warranted. Inflation is too high in Australia and is expected to rise further. While a lot of this can be explained by global factors such as supply chain disruptions and energy prices, there is an important element of strong domestic demand. Indeed, the labour market is very tight – unemployment is as low as it has been in around 50 years – and this is starting to put upward pressure on wages. For all these reasons, interest rates need to rise to ensure inflation returns to the 2 to 3 per cent band over time and that inflationary expectations remain anchored.

    But there was an active discussion both internally and at the Board meeting about the appropriate size of the increase. On the one hand, inflation is high and the labour market is very strong, which indicates a need for interest rates to rise further. On the other hand, there has already been a substantial rise in interest rates since May, which, along with price rises, is beginning to put pressure on household budgets. How household spending will respond to this is uncertain. The international economic environment has also deteriorated quite sharply. For these reasons, the Board felt that a smaller increase in October was warranted while it took stock of developments in consumption, wages and the international economy.

    Some commentators have contrasted the Board’s decision to raise rates by 25 basis points with those of overseas central banks that have been increasing interest rates by larger increments. In part, this reflects our particular economic circumstances. But it is also relevant that the Board meets more frequently than most of our peer central banks. The Reserve Bank Board is making monetary policy decisions 11 times a year so it is discussing regularly the evidence on the economy and has more flexibility on the size and timing of rate increases. This is a particular advantage in uncertain times, as it allows more frequent evaluation of the evidence and recalibration if necessary. It also means that if we increase interest rates at every meeting, we can potentially move much faster than overseas central banks. Or, alternatively, we can achieve a similar rise in interest rates with smaller increments. The incremental change in the policy rate at recent meetings has been smaller than some other major central banks. However, our policy rate trajectory has been as steep, or steeper, than other central banks (Graph 4).

    https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-dg-2022-10-18.html#conclusion

  30. All the best to you Dr John. I hope you have, have had, will have, whatever love and resources you need. I was aware of my same sex attraction pretty early on, and wonder if that helped in raising an index of suspicion of unwanted approaches, a lesser innocence and greater alertness to sinister intents, if you know what I mean. I had a few close calls, and all the charm of a nasty poofter bashing as an adult, but I was a biggish solid lad and man, fit, and able to take care of myself, and never taken advantage of at an age before I understood what was going on, whatever age that is. As that as an altar boy, and with Christian Bros schooling.

    Are you in NSW may I ask?

  31. ‘Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:23 pm

    3. The one child program created a situation in which some 30 million female fetuses were aborted. Men have yet to figure out how to give birth themselves.

    The flip side of that might be 30 million or so “spare” men. What Xi might think to do to channel those men in other directions worries me. (Because I can only think of military distractions.)’
    —————————————————–
    Yes. I have seen the odd vox pop ‘anecdotal’ interviews of single men in China. It is awful. Being poor especially just about guarantees never having a life partner.

  32. Options Fall Away as Trump Faces Wednesday Deposition Date in Defamation Lawsuit

    Trump is scheduled for the “deposition from Hell” (as termed by former Deputy A.G. Harry Littman) this coming Wednesday in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case saying he didn’t rape her

    Perhaps Carroll isn’t interested in a settlement and sued specifically to be heard and to hold Trump accountable. So there’s a chance he could offer $100 million, and she turns it down.

    But in the end, Trump will likely either settle or go into the room and try to explain why Carroll is lying and that it never happened. It is very dangerous ground for a notorious liar already under several investigations. The only thing worse than the deposition would be a trial… which isn’t far down the road, either.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2022/10/17/options-fall-away-as-trump-faces-wednesday-deposition-date-in-defamation-lawsuit.html

  33. U.S. life expectancy fell by a total of 2.7 years between 2019 and 2021 to 76.1 years—the lowest it has been since 1996, according to provisional data recently released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The drop was 3.1 years for male individuals and 2.3 years for female ones. Non-Hispanic Native American and Alaska Native peoples saw the biggest decline—a staggering 6.6 years. But every racial and ethnic group suffered: life expectancy decreased by 4.2 years in the Hispanic population, by four years in the non-Hispanic Black population, by 2.4 years in the non-Hispanic white population and by 2.1 years in the non-Hispanic Asian population.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-just-lost-26-years-worth-of-progress-on-life-expectancy/

  34. In all fairness to scumo , he was able to preform miracles during disasters .
    Afterall , he did manage to make himself and his family disappear during the bushfires and spirited himself into flood ravaged towns…

  35. The CCP’s failure first to predict and then to do anything about the selective abortion/infanticide of female children, despite it being well known for a generation that it was happening, could well end up being the downfall of the entire edifice. Or the thing which pushes it to war to try and whittle down the “excess” men in combat deaths (even worse, to let them claim women from conquered territory, lebensraum taken to new horrific lengths). Or the thing which drives rapid uptake in China of sex robots. Maybe Elon Musk could make that a focus of his.

  36. Individual Chinese have very high rates of savings when compared to the West (same goes for Chinese Singaporeans too) because of cultural and societal differences.

    For instance, I don’t expect my parents to pass anything along once they meet the maker – and my parents will enjoy their savings (they just sold their massive house and are renting a small place) at the pokies or travel etc.

    My wifes’ parents (Chinese Singaporean) are loath to do such a thing and want to pass on wealth to their children. Apart from property, most urban Mainland Chinese value savings be it RMB, Gold or shares. That’s why the Chinese Government is trying to encourage domestic consumption on domestically manufactured goods and services (COVID lockdowns are hampering this).

    China, with its still large rural population has another lever to pull.

    Currently farmers cannot use their land as collateral when seeking loans. All land in China is owned by the State. Whilst urban land lesees can use their property as collateral, this has been denied to 農民 nóng mín (peasant farmer).

    Should the Government change policy, this would lead to a massive unlocking of capital (and many bad debts) and eventually the amalgamation of millions of small holdings into larger farms (as has happened in the West for over 100 years). As most young people don’t want to farm and go to the Cities for employment (in many villages it’s only the old and very young left) – this will IMHO eventualy happen.

    So don’t write China off yet folks – but the longer they keep COVID lockdowns in place the more the growing Urban Middle Class will feel the pain. The 農民 nóng mín (peasant farmers) not so much – and never forget it was the 農民 nóng mín, not the Urban workers (as in Russia) that made a Communist Party victory in 1949 possible.

  37. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:23 pm

    There are lots of possible questions.

    The problem will be a shortage of sperm. Males capable of producing viable sperm will become very rare. What will be the social, political, economic and cultural consequences of that? Will these males become the keepers of harems? Will they be put to an enforced, common use by the rest of the population? Will they become servants of their biology? Will they or their sperm be traded? Will a-sexual reproductive methods become widely developed and applied? Will cloning become common?

    What will become of males that cannot serve any reproductive purpose? Will they become 2nd class beings, neutered and disenfranchised? How will very common childlessness change relationships?

    What is the relationship between the loss of fertility and the pollution of the environment? What patterns will there be in the distribution of fertile and infertile populations? Human history has been characterised by competition for resources. What will happen when the most vital competition is for the means to reproduce the population?

    If reproduction of the specifies becomes a matter of technology and capital – if it is a form of bio-manufacturing – what role will quality-assurance have? What will management actually consist of? What will the marketing of reproductive services come to mean?

    What will happen if the loss of fertility spreads widely to other species?

  38. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 11:24 am

    An expensive nimby for residents..
    .

    Sophie Aubrey@sopphie
    The $20-25m levee project was fully planned and had $5.8m in government grants when the council dumped it in June 2020 amid community concerns over the loss of river views, access and habitat and spending priorities. #vicfloods
    https://twitter.com/sopphie/status/1582145734161313793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582145734161313793%7Ctwgr%5Ef5fee616de134ead5fdd23983d4a69561ebf2554%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2022%2F09%2F19%2F20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitlers-early-rhetoric-and-policies%2Fcomment-page-6%2Fcomments
    ————————————————
    IMHO the Goulburn floodplain from Eildon to Seymour is generally well-planned in terms of what is allowed to be built, and where. I have zero patience for the Seymour nimbies.

  39. WRT fertility, endocrine disruptors play a role across animal species. Scientific attention has been growing for decades but is mainly focussed on human reproductive physiology. To add to the concern, I believe (but haven’t checked) that some of these chemicals don’t break down quickly and remain a “permanent” influence in our biosphere.

    One example:
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121018855

    Collectively, the evidence summarized here within reinforce the concept that reproduction in wildlife and humans is negatively impacted by anthropogenic chemicals, with several altering endocrine system function. These observations of chemicals interfering with different aspects of the reproductive endocrine axis are particularly pronounced for aquatic species and are often corroborated by laboratory-based experiments (i.e. fish, amphibians, birds). Noteworthy, many of these same indicators are also observed in epidemiological studies in mammalian wildlife and humans.

  40. The accumulation of monetary wealth is an interesting phenomenon. I see it basically as an insecurity, at a personal level, and even at a national level, whilst happily I can accomodate having a kitty, of substance, for the unforeseen. In the acquisition and retention of large amounts of money, what interests me is how it is acquired, and what is done with it. I wonder, supported by some observation, if the least adequate, in a psychological, and while I’m going for it, a spiritual, sense are the more likely to acquire, and retain, beyond reasonable measure.

  41. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    Upnorth
    If I remember it correctly, the Greek government wanted the Rugby League to be administered by the Rugby Union organisation – (that would work)

    All a bit reminiscent of the Vichy French banning Rugby à Treize and giving all its resources to Rugby à Quinze – largely on the grounds that professional sport was the work of the devil or at least the Front Populaire
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks OC, I didn’t know that (about the Greeks and Vichy) but makes sense.

    Outside of we educated Rugby League folk, there is a yawning gap in the undestanding of the difference between League and Ra Ra. I hazard to guess some followers of Australian Rules may not understand the differences as well. I suppose it is “Double Dutch” to the Greeks.

    Ra Ra has always been jealous of the success of Rugby League and that’s why they try so hard to poach RL players.

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