Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)

Albanese’s strong ratings remain effectively unchanged; attitudes towards stage three tax cuts finely balanced.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the monthly question on Anthony Albanese’s leadership, recording 58% approval (down one) and 26% disapproval (up one). Respondents were also asked what appear to have been all-or-nothing questions on stage three tax cuts, finding 53-47 in favour of sticking with them rather than breaking an election promise regardless of the economic situation, and 52-48 against a more general proposition as to whether break election promises should ever be broken. However, the split in favour of keeping the tax cuts was 70-30 in favour among those who felt they were most likely to benefit compared with 60-40 for least likely. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1122 – there should be a good deal more from it when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,757 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval and tax cuts (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 56
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  1. I look forward to McCallum’s summing up in the Lehrmann rape trial, due to end today. Apart from the intense public interest in the verdict, the Chief Justice will no doubt comment on Reynolds’
    conduct, which for a former senior minister in the Morrison government is deserving of marked censure or condemnation.

  3. Gotta agree with kos Samaras on this

    —-
    The electorate is hungry for compassion and hope.

    So Dan Andrews’s opponents stack the Mulgrave ballot paper with the biggest bunch of nasty, angry-cut snakes we have ever seen.

    There are many reasons why cookers are who they are – lack of any empathy is one.

  7. Boerwar

    “ The dumb missiles hitting civilian targets almost certainly cost more in revenge motivation than they gain in generating fear and disruption.”

    Even if we assumed a Russian victory, it’s very difficult to think of a worse hearts-and-minds campaign to win over a public. Of course Putin doesn’t concern himself with such matters assuming that he’ll simply control them anyway but in this scenario, even in victory he’s sowing the seeds for massive internal uprising and underground retribution by the Ukrainian public. Putin is absolutely clueless with regard to this issue. Battlefield victory, increasingly unlikely though it is, would actually only be the start of the war.

    Another issue is leadership. At the point of invasion, almost nobody outside Ukraine had even heard of Zelensky, now he’s a hero, with almost legend status and genuine international cache. Great job Putin, was that part of the plan?

  8. UK Cartoons:
    Ella Baron on the shredding of #Trussonomics #JeremyHunt #LizTruss #MiniBudget

    Matt on #LizTrussPM #JeremyHunt #MiniBudget #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

    Patrick Blower on #JeremyHunt #MiniBudget #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

    Guy Venables on #JeremyHunt #MiniBudget #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence #ToryCostOfGreedCrisis

    Christian Adams on #JeremyHunt #MiniBudget #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

    Brighty on #JeremyHunt #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

    Morten Morland on #JeremyHunt #LizTruss #Blundertruss #ToryChaos #ToryIncompetence

  10. Playing a blinder today, alfred venison! A review of a book by Andrei Martyanov who is ‘an expert on Russian military and naval issues. He was born in Baku, USSR, in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy.’ A Russian Military man who writes about the ‘Coming American Collapse’, on the day Russian planes can’t even straighten up and fly right. Not to mention that Russia can’t even provide socks for its conscripts. Let alone food. The conscripts are having to buy food with their own money or starve. 🙄

    Not to mention, this:

    Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine

    Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability.

    “I have no idea why they took him,” said Alexei, who, like dozens of others in the office complex, was rounded up and taken to the nearest military enlistment office, part of a harsh new phase in the Russian drive.

    In cities and towns across Russia, men of fighting age are going into hiding to avoid the officials who are seizing them and sending them to fight in Ukraine.

    Police and military press-gangs in recent days have snatched men off the streets and outside Metro stations. They’ve lurked in apartment building lobbies to hand out military summonses. They’ve raided office blocks and hostels. They’ve invaded cafes and restaurants, blocking the exits.

    At a predawn sweep on the Mipstroy1 construction company dormitories on Thursday, they took more than 200 men. On Oct. 9, they rounded up dozens at a Moscow shelter for the homeless.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/

    Russian Collapse more like it.

  14. C@t

    What is alfred venison waiting for? Russia is mobilising hundreds of thousands of people to fight their invasion of ukraine.

  15. Nice curating again this morning, BK. Thank you!

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-us-deploys-its-new-weapon-to-destroy-china-s-tech-dream-20221017-p5bqa7.html

    The rules also seek to prevent China from accessing US-developed intellectual property by prohibiting US citizens, permanent residents and companies from continuing to work in or provide support for its advanced chip manufacturing and development programs.

    After growing up in Australia and working here for the first dozen years of my career I recall my shock at learning that I was not free to pursue work in certain parts of the world while resident in the USA. There was a simple system, much simpler than tax returns but similar in spirit, where I had to report every non-US interaction. Penalties applied for not reporting and for interacting with certain nationalities. It was simpler to just not bother with non-US activities. (People may recall the ban on encryption technologies and how the inventor of PGP (pretty good privacy) was hounded.)

  18. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. One more thing bothers me about this story.

    “ Angus Thompson reports that Linda Reynolds has been accused of attempting to “coach” the cross-examination of Brittany Higgins by texting the barrister acting for her former staffer’s alleged rapist. Not a good look, Linda!”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reynolds-denies-trying-to-coach-defence-s-questioning-of-higgins-20221017-p5bqeh.html

    If Linda Reynolds was texting Bruce Lehrmann’s barrister, she must have had his mobile phone number. How did she get it? Had they already been in contact?

  19. ”
    alfred venisonsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 8:15 am
    Le Maire, who spoke on Monday while addressing the National Assembly, said, “The conflict in Ukraine must not end in American economic domination and a weakening of the EU.”
    .
    The French finance minister Bruno Le Maire has warned that the United States should not be allowed to dominate the global energy market while the European Union suffers from the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.
    .
    He described as unacceptable that Washington “sells its liquefied natural gas at four times the price than it sets for its own industrialists,” adding that “the economic weakening of Europe is not in anyone’s interest.”

    https://t.me/azmilitary11/25583
    ”

    av and poroti
    EU are between a rock and a hard place with no leader of stature to guide them in these difficult times. And the less we talk about UK the better. With Russia running over the cliff fast, Europe is in complete turmoil.
    Trump was direct in his contempt when it came to dealings with Europe (except Russia). But Biden is cashing all his chips with Europe with the hope of winning mid-term elections.
    As Victoria says: Interesting times.

  20. Musings on Mr Morrison is an activity I had hoped consigned to the permanently past. Oh well.

    Mr Morrison’s character has not changed. My epiphany about the man goes back to an article written about his time at university, and his successful campaign to win the affections of a popular young woman who had initially spurned him. Mr Morrison focussed everything to that task, abandoning other pursuits, even changing his appearance and habits to suit his rather selfish goal. (I reckon he secretly fancies himself as a bit of a shark, hunting his next meal.)

    Mr Morrison’s character has not changed. There are no surprises in his current actions. He has simply moved on. We might warn his new target. If we cared, that is.

  21. https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-october-2022/

    The amazing polls in the UK keep coming. Highlights of this one:
    – 36% lead to Labour with Labour on 56% and Tories on 20%
    – 7% of the population say the government is competent.
    – Oddly 12% approve of Truss (so 5% of people say approve of Truss but say the government is incompetent)
    – Her preferred PM rating is 13% (making her “Mrs 13%?”)

    How much long can that this go on? I was in Ireland in 2010 when the wheels were completely off and one of the newspapers called the Taoiseach a “F***ing idiot” on the front page. I think they are at that stage.

  23. I find it hard to imagine doing anything with my time more wasteful or futile than engaging in debate with Alfred Venison.

    Meanwhile the real international news is that, as Rudd forecast, Xi Jinping has been re-elected Chinese leader, and effectively for life.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-18/xi-jinping-ccp-congress-speech-economy/101543966

    He is not planning to change China’s security or economic policy. The first is bad news for us and means no prospect of savings in Defence spending any time soon.

    The second is significant and shows why dictators rarely make good economic managers – because they don’t listen and unlike Liz Truss, you can’t quickly replace the incompetent ones.

    Australia really needs to develop broader trade relationships with regional potential allies like India and Indonesia. China may no longer be the engine of world growth, however powerful it has already become.

  25. Senator Reynolds, as a witness, is available to speak to either party’s legal representatives and obviously has as she has given a statement to the police and information to the defence.

  27. After the EU ban on Russian oil kicks in February 2023 and secondary sanctions for other nations still buying Russia come in, the money flow into Russia will dry up significantly.
    An example is the Indian central bank has setup a facility to trade in Russian Rubles but every major bank has declined to sign up to use the facility as it will put them at risk of being sanctioned by the EU and US.

  31. B.S. Fairman at 9.47 am

    Hunt pretended to affirm that Truss would still be PM by Xmas. Very unlikely since she ducked question time yesterday to chat with key backbenchers.

    One can imagine a car-sticker:

    With TRUSS we’re SUSS.
    Joke TORY!

    Not needed as so obvious. Sir John Courtice was cited saying no way Tories can recover now.

  32. ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:07 am
    Best wishes to Torchbearer and zoomster, and all survivors of abuse.
    ——————————-
    Cheers ItzaDream
    Personally I can never forget what was perpetrated on me at boarding school by a catholic priest more than 60 yrs ago.

  33. a r @ #80 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 9:14 am

    Ven @ #72 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 8:47 am

    So Russia thinks US will collapse and US and Europe think that Russian collapse is imminent.

    And everyone is right. It’s China’s time now.

    There are other perspectives too. Search for: Peter Zeihan China. He presents arguments supporting the idea of China’s population collapse, and what follows from that. And I’m not sure if it is Zeihan or someone else, who makes the point that the “cult of Xi” is based on secrecy, and that that seriously weakens China. Uncertainties abound.

  34. a rs at 10:14 am

    Ven @ #72 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 8:47 am

    So Russia thinks US will collapse and US and Europe think that Russian collapse is imminent.

    And everyone is right. It’s China’s time now.

    For over a decade we have been getting stories of an ‘any moment now’ collapse of China. So we could have a grand ‘apocollapse’ and everybody happy cos their prediction came true.

  35. For obvious reasons, a witness cannot be present in court before giving evidence. During the trial, Reynolds’ partner sat in the back of the court (Pillow Talk?) & also “inappropriately” sought to obtain information about testimony via SMS from defence counsel Steven Whybrow, giving rise to the quite reasonable
    supposition that she took the view that forewarned is forearmed.

  36. Peter Zeihan makes a living telling U.S. audiences that every other country on Earth is about to fall over. Germany is the latest, apparently.

    I don’t take him too seriously.

  37. The Age 18/10
    But when asked about flood mapping at a press conference on Monday, Premier Daniel Andrews said he was not responsible for solving the problem, saying “town planning in the main is a matter for local government”.
    _____________________
    Not my job, not my job.

  38. Dr John says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:28 am
    ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:07 am
    Best wishes to Torchbearer and zoomster, and all survivors of abuse.
    ——————————-
    Cheers ItzaDream
    Personally I can never forget what was perpetrated on me at boarding school by a catholic priest more than 60 yrs ago.

    _________________________________________

    There have been far more children inflicted with lifetime pain by others. Adults and children directly, but worse the adults who have knowingly protected the perpetrators and blamed the victims.

    As a victim of mild bullying as a child (a scratch compared to what Torchbearer and Zoomster and others have suffered) I feel very much for the victims of this abuse and the damage it has caused them. It is good that, to some extent at least, there is far more recognition of the extent to which this has occurred and the dreadful impacts on victims.

    To be political for a moment, I congratulate Julia Gillard for setting the ball rolling in a big way with the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. Not only did this commission expose far, far more abuse than was ever imagined by the general population (and, I expect, the victims who were shamed into thinking they were alone), but it also opened up discussion of other areas of abuse that society in general and organisations and families in particular would rather keep hidden.

    I saw Grace Tame talk the other day. She became increasingly angry about the excuses society made for pedophiles and the extent to which repeat behaviour was allowed to be hidden so that perpetrators could get away with portraying themselves as victims who were either blameless or had made a small error in an otherwise meritorious life. She is another of my heroes.

  39. Cronus at 9.22 am

    Putin never had much idea about Ukrainian society. The seeds he has sown now may grow not into uprisings against the brutal occupation in Ukraine but into potential uprisings in Russia. Much more serious.

    There seems no prospect of any negotiations to end the war occuring in the next few months. Killings will continue.

    In the 2014 war in Donbas three quarters of the deaths occurred after the first cease-fire.

    Putin is behaving like most bullies who fail to attain a prize. They double down with brutal and senseless acts of vengeance.

  41. Well, interesting news on a number of fronts today.

    Polling on the s3 tax cuts interesting and indicates that the ALP maybe on the right path with this one? Crunch time the Budget when they actually take solid positions on things, and probably indicate a bit of direction for the May budget in 23.

    Albo and Co chugging along on the FICAC stuff nicely.

    Floods, floods, floods. Sad for the people directly affected, and there will be knock on effects to cost of living for all of us. 🙁

    Ukraine still getting hit, and hitting back. Saw some stuff on Ukrainian women POW’s released today, and i think myself like a lot of people keeping a lookout for any up to date reports of whats going on in Kherson.

    The Russian situation with their “mobilization” is outright weird. Hauling people off the street is going to have no positive impact on their armies capability. The opposite in fact. They will be expending whatever efforts they are still capable of in training and equipping to field soldiers who will be of minimal value and really don’t want to be there.

    The SU-34 that crashed into an apartment block isn’t the first time they have had high profile losses of aircraft apparently due to bad maintenance / breakdown. Its always been a bit of a thing design wise that Russian equipment is built for low expense, lots of it, but short service life. When you have a big industrial base behind it, that model can work, but the world has changed since WWII and Russian thinking seems not to have.

    Be interesting what lessons the Chinese are drawing from all this?

    And the Poms are just Fwarked. 🙁

    However, did see a good news story on ABC24 today. Apparently the Murchison based component of the SKA, the “pathfinder” they built as a tech demonstrator before South Africa got allocated most of the dishes………is now being used to track satellites and space junk. 🙂 Apparently they noticed odd signals over the last decade that have turned out to be reflections off orbiting things of FM broadcasts, and have developed a way of translating that into tracking info. Building dedicated facility there that should be up and running in 12 months. 🙂

    Yah, as far as i can tell its an old “passive radar” technique that came to prominence as a way of possibly tracking stealth aircraft. But, doing an important job considering people like Elon Musk are polluting the skies so fast at the moment.

  43. I posted on previous thread my hopes that Torchbearer, zoomster and all others who’ve been bullied find peace – and continue to find it.

    Then I discovered there’s a new thread…!

  44. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 9:59 am
    Senator Reynolds, as a witness, is available to speak to either party’s legal representatives and obviously has as she has given a statement to the police and information to the defence.

    ________________________________________

    Senator Reynolds was entitled to do what she liked (other than perjure herself or otherwise interfere in the course of justice), including approach defence counsel to get a transcript. Of course, as an officer of the court, Mr Whybrow has duties to the court, including denying her request and, I think, reporting the approach to the court.

    As to suggesting evidence to the defence, the issue is not legal ethics or rights as a witness, but the morality and ethics of a former minister of the crown who is on the front bench of the Opposition. Ditto, anything her partner might have reported to her.

    Her behaviour and Cash’s might be within the bounds of the law but are morally reprehensible and will do nothing for the reputation of their party with the women who swung strongly behind the Teals and other alternatives to the liberal party.

  45. Stephen Bartholomeusz’ article about the effect on China of America’s new CHIPS Act is very informative.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-us-deploys-its-new-weapon-to-destroy-china-s-tech-dream-20221017-p5bqa7.html

    As is this information in the comments:

    Cec Poole
    12 HOURS AGO

    The fact that American chips exported to China were found in Ukraine in missiles launched by the Russians on Iranian drones sort of, understandably, drew the ire of the Americans.

    This US Act has incredibly far-reaching consequences that will play out for years to come.

    The consequences of those consequences will shake the world!

    T. White
    1 HOUR AGO

    The Iranian Shahed 136 drone is probably being manufactured under licence in Russia now as downed wreckage show Russian lettering. The reports indicate it is cheap and easy to manufacture and requires uncomplicated chips. Geranium-2 drones as they are now called are pre-programmed so there are no signals in flight to jam.

  47. Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 10:47 am
    Thanks BK

    Jack Waterford wonders if Albanese is up to the job of public service reform.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-albanese-up-to-the-job-of-public-service-reform/
    ____________

    A new “test for Albo/Labor” variant: “is he up to it?” (Which somewhat assumes what the author wants is indisputably good…)

    __________________________________

    The commentariat across the political spectrum almost entirely stayed silent while the Coalition wrought havoc on the body politic and the structure of government and society for over a decade (including Abbott’s Opposition). A few (like Waterford) started saying something in the last few months before the demise of Morrison’s government, but most had a bet each way in their commentary (same, same etc).

    Now they are all coming out of the woodwork with demands that the Albanese Labor government address the huge number of problems that were created or worsened under the Coalition and while these commentariat people were watching.

    Labor has learnt that its ‘friends’ are not trustworthy and only after their own interests and agendas. This government will govern for the people, not for those who yelp the loudest about their favourite agenda (whether worthy or not).

  48. UK to issue ‘threat alert’ over China’s attempts to recruit RAF pilots

    British defence intelligence is to issue a rare “threat alert”, warning that China’s military is trying to recruit serving and former RAF jet pilots to help train its own air force with generous recruitment packages.

    So far there is no evidence that any former RAF pilot has broken the Official Secrets Act in providing training to China, but western officials said they were “taking steps to mitigate this risk” by issuing the guidance.

    China is keen to modernise its military and emulate Nato standards and has a particular interest in fast-jet tactics, techniques and procedures. There were also signs it wanted to recruit helicopter personnel as trainers, a western official said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/uk-officials-threat-alert-china-attempts-to-recruit-raf-pilots

  49. Snappy Tom @ #93 Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 – 10:47 am

    Thanks BK

    Jack Waterford wonders if Albanese is up to the job of public service reform.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-albanese-up-to-the-job-of-public-service-reform/
    ____________

    A new “test for Albo/Labor” variant: “is he up to it?” (Which somewhat assumes what the author wants is indisputably good…)

    It’s Jack Waterford. He’s carved a niche out to be the Desdemona wrt the new federal Labor government. Maybe he supported the Coalition’s plan, announced before the election, to just get rid of 18000 Public Servants? That would solve the ‘problem’. Except it wouldn’t because the bigger problem, which the Albanese government is trying to solve, is the massive amount of work being farmed out to the Big 4 Consultancy firms and the crap job they were doing, also the ideological job they were doing on the taxpayer dime, while being paid a motza of taxpayers’ money.

  50. Since the end of the Cultural Revolution the CCP has run the most successful and competent single party state in the world, one which even managed peaceful and organised transitions from leader to leader, maintaining their iron grip on the populace but also generating fantastic economic growth and improving living standards. I can’t ever agree with oligarchy, but they at least made a good fist of arguing their system was better for China than the chaos that would probably result of trying to just impose Western democracy there overnight.

    However Xi has now upended the principles that have made the CCP system tick so well for so long, not least of which is by effectively making himself dictator for life.

    It remains to be seen if that works out in the long term but I doubt it.

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