The Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election is now open for business, featuring comprehensive detail on all 88 lower house seats – their histories, boundaries, demographics, redistribution effects and main candidates, together with interactive booth results maps from 2018 and tables and charts summarising past election results – and an overview page. All that’s missing is a guide to the Legislative Council, which will follow in due course. If this is of any value to you, a reward for the extensive effort involved in the form of a donation would be much appreciated – these can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page.
To summarise the situation, I repaste below the “redistribution and electoral arithmetic” section from the overview page:
The parliament has ended its term with the same party representation in the lower house that it started with, as an otherwise highly eventful four years passed with no by-elections or party members moving to the cross bench. The results at the 2018 election were 55 seats for Labor, 21 for the Liberals and six for the Nationals, three for the Greens, and three for independents. However, the election will see no fewer than thirteen of Labor’s lower house members retire, and while few of these are in seats that represent strong opportunities for the Liberals, they will complicate Labor’s efforts to defend Richmond and Albert Park from the Greens and Bellarine from an independent. The four seats where Liberals are retiring include highly marginal Hastings and historically blue-ribbon Kew, where the departure of Tim Smith has probably done the Liberal cause more good than harm in the face of the teal independent threat.
After two terms and eight years on the same set of electoral boundaries, the election will give effect to an extensive redistribution that has abolished three seats in Melbourne’s stagnant eastern suburbs and created new ones in the city’s west, outer north, and outer south-east. While two seats held by Labor and one held by the Liberals have been replaced by corresponding numbers of notional Labor and Liberal seats, the changes are to Labor’s advantage in that two of the new seats are highly safe for Labor while the abolished Labor-held seat of Mount Waverley is a normally Liberal-leaning marginal. The redistribution has also produced notional Labor margins in four Liberal-held seats (Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon and Pakenham, the latter having replaced Gembrook), while sending only two seats the other way (Bayswater and Bass).
Another complication to the arithmetic arises from the retirement of Russell Northe, one of the chamber’s three independents. Northe’s Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell gave Labor 54.0% of the two-party preferred vote in 2018 against the Nationals, such that it can be treated as a notional Labor seat in his absence. Adding this to its net gains and losses from the redistribution, Labor goes into the election with a notional 58 seats compared with the 55 it won in 2018, while the Liberals are down from 21 to 19. The Nationals remain on six, each on margins safer than any enjoyed by the Liberals, while Mildura and Shepparton are held by independents who will re-contest their seats.
On the assumption of a uniform swing and no change to the status quo in terms of minor parties and independents, a Coalition majority government would require a daunting gain of 20 seats and a swing of 10.4%. While the Greens could make inroads into the Labor majority, with the inner-city seats of Richmond, Northcote and perhaps Albert Park rated as strong possibilities, a uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of nearly 10% would still be needed to cut deeply enough into Labor’s numbers to reduce it to a minority.
The federal election result has also inspired a wave of candidates hoping to follow in the footsteps of the teal independents, many drawing support from the same local networks and the fundraising efforts of Climate 200. As at the federal election though, where teal independents cost the Liberals the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the risk here is largely on the Liberal side of the ledger. Seats where independent campaigns have enjoyed substantial media attention include Kew, Brighton and the country seat of South-West Coast, which respectively correspond largely or entirely with Kooyong, Goldstein and Wannon, the latter also having produced a strong result for an independent at the federal election. However, well-organised independent campaigns have also emerged in the Labor-held seats of Hawthorn and Bellarine.
To Alpo and Gettysburg: the only news I watch is SBS so have managed to avoid the claptrap you have had to endure on Stokes Ch7 and Costello’s 9. The ABC has been bitching about the state ALP for as long as I can remember and the Courier – oh brother!!!!! Anyway I come from the perspective of being ignorant of this stuff and to me the Qld government is going ok. I heard the media went ballistic on Dan the man as well but without a functioning sensible opposition this criticism falls on deaf ears. In Vic they have Matty Guy- nuff said!!!! Here we have Ros Bates, Jarrod Bleige and the underwhelming Mr Crisafulli who fled Far Q for the LNPs last safe bastion on the GC,where they would vote for Mr Bean if he were running in the blue or national party colours.
What do you Victorians reckon? If Matty Guy loses his election as Opposition Leader, will he do the honourable thing and resign from the leadership and the parliament to let some fresh blood in? Is there anyone in the Victorian Liberal Party that fits the bill who is not a Fundamentalist Christian?
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:25 am
What do you Victorians reckon? If Matty Guy loses his election as Opposition Leader, will he do the honourable thing and resign from the leadership and the parliament to let some fresh blood in? Is there anyone in the Victorian Liberal Party that fits the bill who is not a Fundamentalist Christian?
***********
Their best bet is probably John Pesuto, but he lost Hawthorn last election, and is no guarantee to win it back.
All I know is that ducks will sit in a puddle of water on the side of a busy road. They aren’t fussy. Their ecosystem is the world.
andrewmck,
Would Guy stand down and let Pesutto take over his seat? Would Pesutto move to Guy’s seat?
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:54 am
andrewmck,
Would Guy stand down and let Pesutto take over his seat? Would Pesutto move to Guy’s seat?
**************
No, and No.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:25 am
What do you Victorians reckon? If Matty Guy loses his election as Opposition Leader, will he do the honourable thing and resign from the leadership and the parliament to let some fresh blood in?
Valid, but lengthy ~ why not Shorten?
Nimbyism is such a wonderful beast. I went to a local rally in our area over an environmental issue which had clearly been hijacked by the libs. They kept carrying on about how satan did this and Satan did that. Sorry, Dan, not Satan, my mistake. When the lib dude got up when pressed all he could say was a liberal government would send the issue off to a review……. Half the Crowd laughed. The other half ignored it but some did look a little embarrassed.
Of all the speakers only two had anything worthwhile to say. One correctly pointed out that the bridge in question pre-dated cars, let alone trucks. The other speaker spoke about a local endangered frog.
The rest were nimbys of the highest order. It was fascinating.
(The local labor member has a double digit majority).
One old bloke kept banging on about the billion dollar side letter. That one amuses me no end. The Libs threw that money away on trying to force the ALP to break an election promise. It was signed during the caretaker period and was the single greatest example of political bastardry in Victorian politics. The Libs have lost two elections on it already – yet still they think it is a winner for them…..
Enjoy your Sunday.
Meanwhile the age is running an article blaming the floods on Dan.
I blame climate change.
Smethurst’s shameless barracking is getting a tedious.
I predict Labor will notionally lose Hastings and Pakenham, but notionally gain Bass and Bayswater.
Labor will gain Sandringham, Caulfield, Brighton, Warrendyte, Glen Waverley, Croydon, Polwarth and MAYBE Kew or Southwest-Coast if they are lucky, but I see the former as the only prospect as a Teal-Gain,
Liberals will lose Benambra to an Indi as well, however they will gain Nepean and the Nats will notionally gain Morwell from Labor.
Labor possibly will notionally hold Ripon
Labor Landslide with possibly a slight swing to Labor on the TPP but their primary vote will drop as will the Liberals.
59-41 is my statewide prediction to Labor, The Liberals really shot themselves in the foot bringing back Matthew Guy, when Pesutto losses who on earth will replace Guy? Frydenburg?
Daniel, what makes you think Labor will gain Warrandyte? Very safe Liberal territory around there.
I think Labor will win Glen Waverley and Caulfield, and notionally gain Bayswater. And agree the Liberals are likely to lose Benambra, and possibly Southwest coast to an independent and Kew to a teal.
The rest of the seats you mentioned will likely stay Liberal I think.
I don’t want to be cocky and think it’ll be a wipeout for the Liberals, but the numbers keep saying that it’s going to be something like that. The tendency for them to point over at the bin fire of conservative politics in the USA and say “You see that? We need more of that here!” means they’re not going to have the electorate on their side as long as they keep doing that.
For my prediction I’ll probably play it safe and say that Labor retains majority government with seats numbering around the mid-50’s, maybe losing a couple of seats to the Greens but picking off some Liberals in seats they’re currently holding by their fingernails, but the upper house is going to be a lot more difficult to work with, to the point that it can’t ignore calls to abolish group voting tickets and reform the voting system.
For me the seat to watch on election night is Ripon. It’s often been quite an interesting seat, including its predecessor Kara Kara, containing 3 regional cities of Stawell, Ararat and Maryborough and everything between, shifting around every so often.
It’s significant that it’s lost Stawell this time around and gained satellite towns around Ballarat. That and losing the conservative towns of Donald and Charlton means that Louise Staley is going to have a big fight to retain it, and local news tells me that Labor’s fighting hard to gain it. Still, it can be unpredictable. Joe Helper held it for Labor in 2010 with a smaller-than-statewide-average swing against him. And that was after it swung hard against the Liberals in 1999, most likely as backlash for Kennett ending passenger rail services beyond Ballarat. Then there was the surprise victory for Labor in 1970 and 1973 when Esmond Curnow won Kara Kara and held it for two terms when they were still in the doldrums from the DLP split years.
Also Ripon contains the outer Ballarat suburbs of Lucas and Miners Rest, both of which have been growing significantly these past few years.
Menzies was VERY CLOSE, so there is reason to think Warrendyte will be as well. There is no way Menzies was a fluke, it’s a new normal, the area isn’t safe anymore. Things are changing.
Daniel says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 6:16 pm
Menzies was VERY CLOSE, so there is reason to think Warrendyte will be as well. There is no way Menzies was a fluke, it’s a new normal, the area isn’t safe anymore. Things are changing.
———————————-
Menzies was close because its demographically similar to the other seats that swung against the Morrison government and there was no incumbent so its far too early to say its a new normal when Doncaster has been marginal and Warrendyte was ALP held in the 1980s.
Big night in Hawthorn tonight…
Vic Liberal MPs past and present Baillieu, Frydenberg, Hume, O’Brien, Crozier, Tim Wilson, Jess Wilson, Davis all on hand for John Pesutto’s campaign launch. Several hundred Liberal supporters on hand.
Kirsdarke @ #63 Sunday, October 16th, 2022 – 5:06 pm
Looking back at the Kara Kara 1970 result, it seems like Labor benefited from Country party preferences or at least it was an even split.
I know that the Victorian Country/National Party was not in coalition with the Libs until 1992, but before this time was their relations so bad, the Country party preferenced Labor?
Sorry for the niche question, but I figure this thread will have someone who has the answer.
“Daniel says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 4:24 pm
…59-41 is my statewide prediction to Labor, The Liberals really shot themselves in the foot bringing back Matthew Guy, when Pesutto losses who on earth will replace Guy? Frydenburg?”
Friedhamburger to Vic state politics?…. Now, that would make Vic the Australian capital of top political entertainment…. What a great idea!…. 🙂
“MABwM says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Meanwhile the age is running an article blaming the floods on Dan.”
Many old-fashioned Liberals still call the floods (and other climate events) an “act of god”…. Hence, Dan is…..
Look, I think we’re getting away from the real debate here (the ducks). There’s ducks and then there’s ducks. Pacific Black Ducks, Wood Ducks and Grey Teal remain pretty numerous across Melbourne and seem pretty happy to play around in any given body of water in pretty much any park you care to stop at.
Blue-billed ducks seem pickier. Though I’d have to ask an ecologist how important Lake Knox is to them.
I’m a bit worried about the Pacific Black Ducks being lost to hybridisation with introduced Mallards, which has happened to them in Tasmania and NZ. And some areas such as Kananook Creek at Seaford, have a disturbing number of farmyard ducks that have been dumped there and are interfering with the wild ones.
Back to the election – there’ll be a bit of a swing against Dan, but not enough to change government. Plus the conservative side is fatally split between the Libs, straight-up Cookers and the random grab bag of independents. Maybe finish around the 53-47 or so mark. Dan will retire during the next term though, so whoever is in charge in 2026 will be completely disconnected from the Covid etc perceived baggage.
@Isle of Rocks
The answer to that is that surprisingly in the long period of Liberal government in Victoria from 1955 to 1982 is that the Liberals were able to hold a majority in their own right in the lower house without needing to call upon the Country/National party for a Coalition. So relations between the Liberals and Country party members weren’t as solid as they were in other states like NSW and Queensland at the time, and often ran against each other.
In fact from 1949 to 1965, the Liberal party in Victoria had their official name as the “Liberal and Country” party, aiming to pick off more rural seats to keep themselves dominant in this regard. The only reason they stopped this was because the Country party members in the Upper House hinged their support on them renaming their party as just the “Liberals” for them to support legislation.
There was also a closer relationship in Victoria between the Labor and Country party since CP leader Albert Dunstan was Premier for most of the time between 1935-45 as a Minority government with Labor party support, Dunstan and Labor leader John Cain Sr. having a good working relationship.
So during the DLP split years, preferences from the Country party were often more generous than usual to Labor than they were elsewhere.
@Daniel, I broadly agree with your entire prediction but do think the Liberals will hold Warrandyte (with a swing against).
I tip another landslide too, every poll has pointed to a win at least equal to 2018, and these are before the campaign has even officially started.
I don’t believe there will be a “narrowing” because campaigns often tend to favour incumbents; the reason the last two federal campaigns narrowed was because the incumbent was trailing, not leading, the polls.
On top of that, Victorian Labor are a well oiled campaigning machine with lots of resources, while the Victorian Liberals’ campaign team is already in a shambles, they’re under-funded, have a shallow pool of talent, and all reports are that they’re struggling to find resources and volunteers.
The idea that polls will narrow in their favour after Labor kick into campaign gear is very unrealistic. If anything Labor will extend their lead and consolidate support, but I agree there will be a negative swing on primary vote (for both majors).
Given the sheer lack of talent in the Victorian Liberal party room and that Dan Andrews is expected to romp it in next month, Matthew Guy could potentially hold on if things end up much closer than the polls are predicting. Even then, he’d still be on borrowed time, especially since a close result would likely mean Pesutto returns to parliament.
If it’s another Labor landslide, there’s no chance he stays leader. He’d almost certainly resign on the night if that happens. Unless he is utterly deluded, of course.
Whatever happens in the Lower House – presumably an ALP win of some sort- an obstructive Upper House chock full of micro party crazies could well be the sting in the tail for the next term of government. And we didn’t need to be facing this prospect- if only the State ALP had ditched the random craziness of group ticket voting for the Upper House, as every other jurisdiction has, rather than leaving our democratic institutions at the mercy and manipulation of preference whisperers.
Courtesy of Kevin Bonham you can find out here various parties’ stance on GTV:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/
His suggestion that, until GTV is fixed, Victoria should be made a dependency of Tasmania, and renamed “Viclotto” has my full support.
Could it be a possibility that Matthew/Matt Guy , according to the corrupt media
lose 2 unlosable elections in a row
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/report-shows-540-000-victorian-households-went-hungry-in-the-last-year-20221016-p5bq32.html?btis
Who are they going to blame???
“max says:
Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:50 am”
I don’t think that the state voting system is high in the concerns of the vast majority of Victorians right now, and I guess that it won’t be for quite some time.
@Asha: “If it’s another Labor landslide, there’s no chance he stays leader. He’d almost certainly resign on the night if that happens. Unless he is utterly deluded, of course.”
…or if they get so wiped out that there are barely any options left in the lower house to replace him!
@Jeremy: I’d say they would blame a range of factors including inflation, soaring interest rates, stagnant wage growth, the dole being WAY too far below the poverty line, etc. All federal issues which is why that article – while focusing on Victoria because it’s a Melbourne paper – clearly states that over 2 million people nationally experienced the same; about half a million of which in Victoria, which is 25%, which lo & behold is Victoria’s share of the national population.
As much as people may like to bang a state government that they don’t like over the head with things like this, the reality is that state governments have relatively little control over the cost of living compared to the federal government, under which all conditions either stagnated or deteriorated for 9 years.
If you look at energy though for example, one of the biggest drivers of cost of living concerns at the moment, Victoria’s energy prices were among the cheapest in the country and that is before the free $250 for comparing plans (which has also been triggering energy companies to offer lower plans matching the government comparison thing).
Alpo says:
Monday, October 17, 2022 at 9:02 am
“max says:
Monday, October 17, 2022 at 6:50 am”
I don’t think that the state voting system is high in the concerns of the vast majority of Victorians right now, and I guess that it won’t be for quite some time.
———
I agree. In the same way that weakening of democracy in the US is pretty much a ho hum issue in mainstream politics. More’s the pity.
In this case perhaps a term of gridlock in which the ALP is unable to effectively implement its agenda is the corrective we’ll ultimately need to motivate politicians to get this fixed, as has occurred in other States and federally. However a lost 4 years of effective governing in Victoria would be far from ideal as well.
I’d say it’s a lot easier now to vote for the long established independent in Point Cook over the parachuted in ALP staffer knowing that the Coalition won’t be in government anyway. The Coalition tanking has taken all the risk out of independents putting the opposition into government. ALP have 55 and only need 45, and add the Greens 3 because they will never go in with the Coalition. ALP will gain seats off the Coalition. Voting independent becomes a lot more promising for some.
Yes, Joe Garra might go ok. Nearly 20% pv last time. But who knows… that was in a different seat, not sure why he’d want to change from Werribee to Point Cook.
The Libs tried and failed to recruit him fwiw.
Melton might go independent – but again, it’s hard to tell because of how split the indy field were last time, and how diverse the anti-Dan protest crowd are this time. I’m friends with people who are angry about e.g. the spoil from the West Gate Tunnel being dumped near Bacchus Marsh*, and who will likely vote for an indy, but whose preferences will ultimately land back with Labor.
*A bit like the ducks in Lake Knox, except this time it’s about dumping stuff into an old open-cut coal mine or something along those lines.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 11:25 am
If Matty Guy loses his election as Opposition Leader, will he do the honourable thing and resign from the leadership and the parliament to let some fresh blood in?
—
Your main problem is that you used Matthew Guy and honourable in the same sentence.
In the upper house, as long as Labor can maintain its vote and get 18 or 19 seats, they should have no trouble getting their agenda through (mostly) unscathed. The problems will come if their vote drops just slightly below the tipping point where they lose a handful of seats and suddenly find themselves needing to herd eight or nine cats. Then we’ll see increased interest in voting reform.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 7:49 pm
Big night in Hawthorn tonight…
—
Not nearly as big as the Lib foamers would have you believe.
Amusing thread. Subsequent comments from Xavier Whocares are hilarious.
https://twitter.com/KaneAfford/status/1581481467288653824
Expat says:
Monday, October 17, 2022 at 11:10 am
Melton might go independent – but again, it’s hard to tell because of how split the indy field were last time, and how diverse the anti-Dan protest crowd are this time.
—
The hot button issues in Melton are a new hospital and new stations. Both are being constructed or funding allocated, and I think ALP is safe.
Hi William
Thanks for this resource.
I think there is an error on the Richmond page; Nathan Lambert’s bio is at the base of the page instead of the actual Labor candidate.
“Your main problem is that you used Matthew Guy and honourable in the same sentence.”
I suggest that the the main problem is assuming Mathew Guy would still have a seat in parliament.
Guy holds Bulleen with a 5.5% margin. The most recent opinion polls show a 5% 2pp state wide swing to Labor compared to the same period in 2018.
Expat says:
Monday, October 17, 2022 at 11:10 am
Yes, Joe Garra might go ok. Nearly 20% pv last time. But who knows… that was in a different seat, not sure why he’d want to change from Werribee to Point Cook.
—
He lives in Werribee South, which got moved into Point Cook. He says on principle he wants to run in the area he lives because he hates it when others don’t run in the seats they live in.
Victorian Election prediction map ^^
10 Lib + 7 Nat = Coalition 17
3 Grn
4 Independent
64 Labor
Just cannot see Joe Garra winning Point Cook. He should’ve gone for Werribee (against Tim Pallas).
The Teals will make no impact whatsoever.
The best chances for new independents are Benambra and, maybe, South-West Coast.
Labor will lose a few seats – but pick up a couple in the eastern suburbs, where a lot of boomers frankly seemed to enjoy curtain-twitching during the lockdown, to offset them. I’d also keep my eye on Polwarth now that it includes Torquay.
I’d say Richmond is lost to The Greens already, but Kat Theophanous will hang on in Northcote (thanks to sophomore surge and the elderly Greek vote).
Ultimately, not much net change.
Group Ticket voting is going to remain in Victoria until the party which is in government no longer gains an advantage from it. Labor benefited remarkably from it last time – a lot of different groups in the upper house means there are lots if different paths to passing legalisation.
The big loser from it last time was the Greens who dropped from 3 seats to 1. Despite being the “third force”, they struggle to reach 16.6% of the vote in 7 out of 8 upper house districts as their vote is very concentrated in the inner suburbs.
So until there is either public pressure or an upper house that can’t pass legalisation, group ticket voting will remain. And if there is a blocking upper house it is unlikely to pass a reform bill either.
My updated predictions of seats changing hands, including notional retains:
ALP Gain from LIB: Glen Waverley, Brighton, Sandringham
ALP Gain from Notional LIB: Bayswater
Notional ALP Retain: Caulfield, Ripon
LIB Gain from ALP: Nepean
LIB/NAT Gain from Notional ALP: Pakenham, Hastings, Morwell (NAT)
Notional LIB Retain: Bass
GRN Gain from ALP: Richmond, Northcote
IND Gains: Really unsure but could pick up 1 out of Kew, Benambra or South West Coast
So in a nutshell, I agree – very little change.
Net change based on the current notional seat count would be:
* Coalition: -1 (+4 from ALP, -4 to ALP, -1 to IND)
* ALP: -2 (+4 from Coalition, -4 to Coalition, -2 to Greens)
* Greens: +2 (from ALP)
* Independents: +1 (from Coalition)
I believe that would make the seat count something like 56 ALP, 24 Coalition, 5 Greens, 3 Independent, is that right?
If that were to eventuate, there would be VERY little blue within 30km of Melbourne’s CBD…. And while Labor would be -2 compared to their notional seat count, they would still be +1 compared to 2018.
I have to admit that Hawthorn is a real wild card though. I can’t even begin to predict what will happen there, so I left it as an ALP retain but that could just as easily be a LIB gain making it 55 ALP and 25 Coalition seats. I think that’ll be a 50/50 contest right down to the wire.
It has been a month since the last Roy Morgan and Resolve polls, 6 weeks since the last Newspoll and 2 months since the last Essential poll. When are we going to start seeing some new polls being published?
Why do people have Bass going Liberal? Any explanation at all? I don’t get the markets saying Labor is a longshot to hold it. They have an INCUMBENT and it is different to Nepean. It’s a pure tossup and I think the incumbent will narrowly hang on.
Excellent work, William!
I have noticed an error in the background for Bendigo West. Bob Cameron won the seat from the Liberal MP Max Turner at the 1996 election, not 1999. It was one of only about three seats Labor won from the government at that election.
I think the reason for people thinking Bass will go Liberal is because one of the major local issues there is the extension of the Cranbourne railway line into Clyde and possibly beyond, which the Liberals have made supportive gestures toward but Labor have been focusing on making the existing Cranbourne line more efficient.
After all, Labor extended the Epping line to South Morang and Mernda, so their possible reasoning is if they make a similar project that would make votes shift to them in that area.
Railway public transport projects have been important local issues in Victorian politics since 1996, which is why the Liberals are playing those cards this time around. But Labor has been playing a strong game itself since winning power in 2014, and during the Bracks/Brumby years as well, with crossing removal projects and line electrifications to Sunbury and Craigieburn, among others.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/14/victorian-election-guide-3/comment-page-2/#comment-3994576
Why do you think Morwell won be won by the ALP? The Coalition need a 4% swing to them, once the redistribution is factored in, which seems beyond them in their current state (outside the most lockdown backlashing areas).
The libs will never learn: if you preselect anti-vax cookers they will espouse garbage:
https://www.theage.com.au/cbd/andrews-liberal-challenger-sorry-for-justice-threat-20221017-p5bqdn.html
Crystal ball gazing: hard to tell . I would be surprised if the liberals took more than 2 seats off Labor. There is a suggestion that the existing vote percentages of 2018 stand. If that is the case then you would expect a similar result. Comparing the recent Federal election result suggests what is possible. I suggest seats with a margin of 5 % plus for the liberals stay with them..eg Malvern Naccaran. Seats in the range of up to 2 % liberal margin..including those line ball notional. With a sitting alp incumbent depend on the Quality of the candidates. Those with alp margins of 3% stay Labor this includes Ripon Pakenham and Morwell.. I suspect independents who almost won in 2018 complete the job especially in Eastern Vic country. South west coast has a good chance of the sitting lib mp being unseated by an independent. This will be very interesting.. the liberals are of course not a chance of winning govt
If Newbury lost his seat in Brighton, i’d be very happy. If both him and Southwick (Caulfield) lost, i’d be joyous.