The Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election is now open for business, featuring comprehensive detail on all 88 lower house seats – their histories, boundaries, demographics, redistribution effects and main candidates, together with interactive booth results maps from 2018 and tables and charts summarising past election results – and an overview page. All that’s missing is a guide to the Legislative Council, which will follow in due course. If this is of any value to you, a reward for the extensive effort involved in the form of a donation would be much appreciated – these can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page.
To summarise the situation, I repaste below the “redistribution and electoral arithmetic” section from the overview page:
The parliament has ended its term with the same party representation in the lower house that it started with, as an otherwise highly eventful four years passed with no by-elections or party members moving to the cross bench. The results at the 2018 election were 55 seats for Labor, 21 for the Liberals and six for the Nationals, three for the Greens, and three for independents. However, the election will see no fewer than thirteen of Labor’s lower house members retire, and while few of these are in seats that represent strong opportunities for the Liberals, they will complicate Labor’s efforts to defend Richmond and Albert Park from the Greens and Bellarine from an independent. The four seats where Liberals are retiring include highly marginal Hastings and historically blue-ribbon Kew, where the departure of Tim Smith has probably done the Liberal cause more good than harm in the face of the teal independent threat.
After two terms and eight years on the same set of electoral boundaries, the election will give effect to an extensive redistribution that has abolished three seats in Melbourne’s stagnant eastern suburbs and created new ones in the city’s west, outer north, and outer south-east. While two seats held by Labor and one held by the Liberals have been replaced by corresponding numbers of notional Labor and Liberal seats, the changes are to Labor’s advantage in that two of the new seats are highly safe for Labor while the abolished Labor-held seat of Mount Waverley is a normally Liberal-leaning marginal. The redistribution has also produced notional Labor margins in four Liberal-held seats (Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon and Pakenham, the latter having replaced Gembrook), while sending only two seats the other way (Bayswater and Bass).
Another complication to the arithmetic arises from the retirement of Russell Northe, one of the chamber’s three independents. Northe’s Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell gave Labor 54.0% of the two-party preferred vote in 2018 against the Nationals, such that it can be treated as a notional Labor seat in his absence. Adding this to its net gains and losses from the redistribution, Labor goes into the election with a notional 58 seats compared with the 55 it won in 2018, while the Liberals are down from 21 to 19. The Nationals remain on six, each on margins safer than any enjoyed by the Liberals, while Mildura and Shepparton are held by independents who will re-contest their seats.
On the assumption of a uniform swing and no change to the status quo in terms of minor parties and independents, a Coalition majority government would require a daunting gain of 20 seats and a swing of 10.4%. While the Greens could make inroads into the Labor majority, with the inner-city seats of Richmond, Northcote and perhaps Albert Park rated as strong possibilities, a uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of nearly 10% would still be needed to cut deeply enough into Labor’s numbers to reduce it to a minority.
The federal election result has also inspired a wave of candidates hoping to follow in the footsteps of the teal independents, many drawing support from the same local networks and the fundraising efforts of Climate 200. As at the federal election though, where teal independents cost the Liberals the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the risk here is largely on the Liberal side of the ledger. Seats where independent campaigns have enjoyed substantial media attention include Kew, Brighton and the country seat of South-West Coast, which respectively correspond largely or entirely with Kooyong, Goldstein and Wannon, the latter also having produced a strong result for an independent at the federal election. However, well-organised independent campaigns have also emerged in the Labor-held seats of Hawthorn and Bellarine.
@Tom, re: https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/14/victorian-election-guide-3/comment-page-2/#comment-3994649
Honestly I don’t know, I was just trying to be generous to the Coalition and not be *too* optimistic about an even bigger Labor win than 2018.
The rural/regional seats are the ones I really have the least idea about, including the independents’ chances in South West Coast and Benambra which is why I was iffy on them too. For all I know, independents could romp in on both of those, and Labor could gain Polwarth and increase their margin in Morwell!
My Morwell prediction was mostly just based on what I had read others post about that region moving away from Labor over time, the closure of the coal plant, etc. So I picked it as a possible Coalition gain because honestly it seemed more likely than seats like Ashwood or Box Hill which I predict will swing further to Labor.
I concur mostly with other on South-West Coast, was a local branch member for ALP, its going to be one of the worst primaries ALP has seen in this seat.
But it is a very difficult task to unseat libs here in Warrnambool, where they have ruled since 1955 at both state and federal level, in whatever electorate Warrnamool is in. Expect Libs (Roma) to put in a good campaign as she has some experience with it now.
Warnambool is a city Libs will fight for with everything they have (which isnt much these days), they know its changing demographics, and when they lose it they have to fight not just for South-West coast, but Wannon as well.
The independent is a boomer, and i wouldn’t even call her progressive, which is what is needed to prise primaries from the Liberal party. Coversly she isnt going to be the good media performer we saw in the close Federal result down her.
It also looks like there arent going to heaps of independents like in previous years, perhaps she will be the only one, which increases her chances of coming 2nd, and getting the overwhelming majority of Green and ALP preferences.
She would be a frighteningly fierce independent, couldn’t be counted to be an ally of Labor or Liberal.
Roy Morgan SMS poll has Labor up 60-40:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-increases-its-large-election-winning-lead-over-the-liberal-national-coalition-in-victoria-in-september-alp-60-cf-l-np-40
Kevin Bomham comments on twitter re Roy Morgan poll …
“Morgan Vic (state) multi-mode 60-40 to ALP. Usual Morgan messiness disclaimers apply.
ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 14.5 IND 8 (“teal IND” 1) other parties including 7 named parties 7.5
This multi-mode poll is supposedly the same methods as one of the two August polls but other parties (excluding majors, Greens, ON, UAP, LDP, AJP, SFF, DHJP, LCP) have dropped from 7.5% to 1%. That doesn’t look right without a significant methods change.
Also interesting that “teal IND” was averageing 4% in the SMS polls but 1% in the multi-modes.
Also as noted by @sorceror43 this poll is somewhat stale.”
From the RM site: This special Roy Morgan Poll multi-mode poll was conducted via telephone and online interviewing with a cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted during the month of September 2022.
Man, the march of the morons in late November will be something to behold. I can hear the conspiracy theorists screaming already.
Gosh. If the election result is really 60-40 or greater for Labor then that puts the Liberals in danger of losing their status as the main Opposition party, like in WA.
Yes, currently they have 21 seats to the Nationals’ 6, but they only have 8 seats that are on a margin of 3% or higher, while the Nats’ 6 seats are all safe on margins of 12% or more.
The Morgan poll, with the Liberal primary vote at less than 30% is in accordance with what I am told is the internal Liberal Party polling
They are saying sub 30%
And who gets elected on those figures?
The infighting continues unabated between the Old Guard (Cormack), the Pentecostals (read the profile of the Mulgrave candidate now in the media) and the IPA
And they are “led” by the delusional Matt Guy!!!
Still
Albeit with a change on name from Matthew Guy – which is changed from ……..”
Trouble is even those who support him are deserting the ship
The only reason some continue to fake support is solidarity and to prosper their post election leadership credentials
I think I was interviewed in that “multi-mode” poll.
I was called by Roy Morgan on Saturday 3rd September and participated. It was a human conducting the interview, which later went onto a bunch of annoying marketing and brand questions.
They asked for my state voting intentions but it was very open ended – rather than a choice of parties provided like a robo call, they just asked which party would you give your #1 vote to. Only the 2PP question provided parties to choose between.
That may explain the difference in named “other” parties compared to most other polls which have fewer but more specific options, and also why there was a small “teal independent” cohort: participants weren’t offered an option between independent and teal independent like the Redbridge polls specify, some participants must have just added the word teal themselves and most didn’t.
Yes, the poll is “multi-mode” online and phone, and not SMS as I earlier indicated.
It’s almost impossible to pick up independent support in a state-wide poll because obviously not all seats have one, but more importantly the subsets of independents. There are the teals in Liberal heartland seats in Melbourne (Sophie Torney in Kew has the best chance of them to get elected) who want more moderate politicians than the current Liberals. There are the western suburbs independents (Joe Garra in Point Cook and Ian Birchall in Melton) who argue that the government has taken them for granted and the Liberals couldn’t find them on a map. And the regional independents (Jacqui Hawkins in Benambra and Carol Altmann in South-West Coast) who point over to Mildura and Shepparton and ask if you want a member in opposition all the time who will never be listened to or someone who can work with all sides. Quite different from the federal election in that most of the prominent independents were teals (with the exception of Dai Le in Fowler and Rob Priestly in Nicholls)
Expats ays:
Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 7:22 pm
Man, the march of the morons in late November will be something to behold. I can hear the conspiracy theorists screaming already.
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Credlin is having a meltdown over these latest polling results.
Morgan, from early September.
Pffffffft
Labor already putting resources into Melton. Handing out scare campaign material at Melton station. Scared much of losing the seat?
Here we go again, Federal Labor got majority government with a 32% primary. Not that far from sub 30 primary!!! And this is a Morgan, apparently from early September. Looking like a minority Labor government to me.
Just for you Jeremy.
Jeremy , it looks like a 200 km p/h wind you are pissing into….
I’m still finding those opinion polls hard to believe. In all my experience, landslides don’t happen twice in a row, and you certainly don’t get a second landslide that’s bigger than the first one, and you certainly certainly don’t get a landslide in favour of the party of the same stripe as the federal government.
Election night is going to be gobsmacking if those polls are true.
EightES says:
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 at 9:29 am
…. Election night is going to be gobsmacking if those polls are true.
_______________________
Election night IS going to be gobsmacking.
On these numbers; ALP to gain more seats than it loses. (1-2 to Greens,5-6 from Liberals)
Libs will lose seats to ALP, Teals, Greens etc.)
IF these numbers hold true the Vic Liberals and the WA Liberals will need to merge to reach Coram.
Of course things could change, but the polling demonstrates a clear rejection of the LNP in its current form. The Libs will sheet all the damage to Guy and claim he was the problem. They will ignore the obvious lessons: Victorians don’t want to live in a carping theocracy.
The swing is on. It is away from the Liberal Party (moreso than the coalition).
I need to amend my post above.
The WA elections of 2017 and 2021 could be considered two landslides in a row, with the second bigger than the first. But the unfortunate WA Liberals were handicapped by a toxic federal government.
EightES , W.A. was a landslide followed by a Biblical style earthquake which left the Libs with 2 seats , just.
I did not believe the polls then either , but they were correct..
I love Jeremy’s logic.
He has just explained that because at the federal election, primary votes of 36% Coalition and 32% Labor resulted in a majority Labor government; state results of 42% Labor and sub-30% Coalition must be headed for a minority Labor government, based purely on the fact that the Coalition are closer to 32% than Labor. LOL.
That is some Sky News level distortion of a narrative.
@EightES: I think we’re in a unique position where the “federal drag” factor could very well work the opposite way that it usually does.
There are a combination of factors at play here:
– The Morrison government was more unpopular in Victoria than almost anywhere;
– The trauma & failures of that government are not only still recent & fresh, but also new information such as Morrison’s extra ministries keeps coming up post-election
– The Federal Libs replaced Morrison with the worst possible replacement as opposition leader, Peter Dutton is more hated in Victoria than probably any other Liberal politician in the country
– Federal Labor are still riding high in the polls with honeymoon numbers still persisting, and to many Victorians still feel like a breath of fresh air after the 9 years of deeply unpopular Liberal government
Based on all that I just don’t see at this stage how the Albanese government could drag state Labor more than Morrison’s continuing controversies and Peter Dutton will drag the state Libs.
Whether that holds up in March for the NSW election will be a different story though as federal Labor will be another 4 months old, in a new calendar year, and Morrison/Dutton were not quite as toxic there as they are in Victoria.
I’ll just add one more factor too: In 2018, shortly after the dumping of Turnbull, the backlash against the Libs seemed like a short term reaction to a singular event. But I think the following 4 years pretty much confirming the Liberals’ rejection of their former heartland and permanent lurch to a combination of religious conservatism and alt-right populism has done even more damage. Moderates & centrists are no longer just protesting a poor decision, they no longer feel that the Liberal Party is their home at all.
Yes Trent, lies lies and more lies and contempt from scomochio and co was rejected by the electorate
but the state Libs don’t seem to get it .
they think the message is correct , its the people that don’t understand they are wrong.
We will just go harder and the people will wise up and return us to our rightful place of power.
Worth a read.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-19/victorian-independent-teal-candidates-state-election/101548696
Independent candidates take on high-profile Liberals in Victorian state election, but can the ‘teal wave’ be recreated?
By state political reporter Richard Willingham
Posted 5h ago
“But without a federal Liberal government to campaign against, will the teals have as much success at the local level?”
Good article.
My predictions for teals’ chances:
Kew = Best chance for a “teal” gain.
Hawthorn = No, because teal-inclined voters are more likely to swing back to Pesutto
Caulfield = No, it’s not the right profile and there’s too much of a solid ALP/GRN base
Brighton = No, because she is a Liberal Party member therefore won’t swing ALP/GRN voters
Sandringham = No, not really a teal, a male independent running for the third time
Mornington = No, results in Flinders haven’t been promising for teals/independents
And I’ve said this heaps of times but will repeat it again, why is a teal not running in Malvern? After Kew, it would by far be the second most suitable seat for a teal to run in and meets all the criteria perfectly.
A teal has a FAR better chance of leapfrogging Labor into second place in Malvern than they do in Sandringham, Caulfield or Brighton. And comparing it to Hawthorn, Michael O’Brien was a dismal failure as Liberal leader whereas Pesutto in Hawthorn is seen as the only hope left for the Liberal Party, so potential teal voters are more likely to vote Liberal there.
Malvern is all perfect “small l” Liberal / Teal territory with no solid ALP/GRN areas, so the ALP/GRN vote (much of which was the 2018 swing) is very soft. This is similar to Kooyong & Goldstein which were mostly the same territory too.
The big difference is that state seats like Brighton & Caulfield contain suburbs from Macnamara (Elwood, St Kilda East, Balaclava) which are solid ALP/GRN turf and will help the Labor vote hold up, making it a lot harder for a teal to overtake them.
I reckon Coalition 30, Greens 5, 1 to 2 ind, ALP 52
* When I say “mostly the same territory” comparing Malvern to Kooyong & Goldstein, I don’t mean overlapping, I mean the same profile of being almost entirely “small l” Liberal suburbs with no real Labor strongholds.
Trent
On Brighton’s Teal being a former Liberal both Chaney and Spender are from Liberal Party backgrounds and that didn’t turn Green and ALP supporters off from supporting them.
The big difference though is that the Brighton teal literally ran for preselection as the Liberal candidate in 2022 though.
That’s very different because in this situation, it’s more a case of “I didn’t win preselection so I’ll just run without the party backing” but she is clearly still a Liberal.
Whereas candidates like Allegra Spender may have had a Liberal background but their story is that they became disillusioned with the Liberal Party in recent years, that’s a story which resonates strongly with the teal base whose story is the same.
The common thread with all the federal teals was that they were of the “I voted Liberal in 2016 but not 2019” ilk; they were Turnbull Liberals who ditched the party after its lurch to the right.
Someone who tried to be the Liberal candidate in 2022 shows that they are clearly not disillusioned with the party, just with the fact that they weren’t preselected.
I’ll add too that the Caulfield “teal” candidate’s recent Labor association will probably have the same effect on hampering her vote from LIB>TEAL voters, that the Brighton candidate will have on ALP>TEAL voters.
Also remember that Brighton includes the suburb of Elwood which accounts for between 20-25% of Brighton’s enrolment.
Elwood isn’t a marginal, “soft Labor”, “small l Liberal” or “teal” suburb. It’s a rock solid, ALP/GRN suburb that isn’t likely to see much of an ALP>Teal or GRN>Teal swing even if the candidate had no Liberal association.
The Labor candidate also happens to be a Port Phillip Councillor who has a local profile and lives in Elwood which should help solidify her vote there – or at least her preferences from Greens voters.
That’s just a huge obstacle for the teal to overtake Labor that didn’t exist in any of the federal seats that teals won; I don’t think any one of those seats really included any rock solid left-wing territory let alone that territory accounting for 20-25% of the enrolment.
It’s a very similar situation in Caulfield with the Balaclava/St Kilda East area accounting for roughly 25% of that seat’s enrolment too, as well as some stronger Labor areas to the east around Glenhuntly.
These are just not factors that existed in the federal election, where the seats won by teals were really comprised almost exclusively of prime “teal” turf – small “l” Liberal heartland – really only offset by pockets of more marginal territory (eg. Bentleigh, Hawthorn, Bondi, etc) that is more prone to swing rather than actual Greens/Labor strongholds.
The federal boundaries suited the teals better because they have all the Labor/Greens areas in Macnamara, and just leave all the Liberal areas (with a few small marginal pockets) in Goldstein.
The state boundaries are far more favourable for Labor to stay ahead of the teal.
If, hypothetically, there was a state seat based on the former City of St Kilda (St Kilda, St Kilda East, Balaclava & Elwood all together) which would no doubt be a GRN v ALP seat, which would exclude the more Labor/Greens suburbs from Brighton & Caulfield by moving them further southeast, then they would definitely be more similar to the profile of Goldstein.
I wonder if Federal Labor’s change of policy on Jerusalem will hurt Victorian Labor in Caulfield with its large Jewish population…
Pakenham will be real interesting, it swung heavily against the ALP in the federal seat of La Trobe. The complicating factor may be Brett Owen, an independent 3-time mayor of Cardinia Shire who has been a councillor for 17 years and who polled 65.6% in his council ward in 2020. He was a Liberal member years ago but has been an independent for quite some time now. He won’t win but his preferences may well be key. He is the exact kind of candidate that Liberal voters not happy with the party will lend their first preferences to. Another ex-Mayor named Brett running in a marginal seat is Brett Tessari, who is running for the Nats and previously said he wouldn’t unless the Nats actually took the seat seriously (they haven’t run in it for years). Tessari may well surprise the Libs in the attempt for the Coalition to regain the seat.
The ALP would probably come third in a seat based on the old city of St Kilda. The ALP are just beating the Liberals in a seat they hold and a seat only on the city of St Kilda would be a safe Green seat so the ALP would put less resources and effort in.
Delta says:
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 at 1:18 pm
I wonder if Federal Labor’s change of policy on Jerusalem will hurt Victorian Labor in Caulfield with its large Jewish population…
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Unlikely, since the people who would be upset by the recent move would never have voted Labor anyway. As conservative as they get.
I don’t think so Mexicanbeemer, I think the Liberals would come a distant third if there were a St Kilda based seat.
In May for example, the Liberal primary vote was between 14-16% across St Kilda while the Labor primary vote was in the mid-30s. And at state level, the Labor vote was even higher (they beat the Greens in most polling places).
I agree that a St Kilda based seat would almost certainly be Greens-held, but Liberal preferences would at least make it competitive for Labor so I don’t think they would entirely give up on it, I think they’d still commit resources.
Prahran is a different story. If a St Kilda based seat removed the St Kilda area from Prahran, then it would solidify Prahran as a GRN v LIB seat and relegate Labor to a distant third there, while also reducing the GRN v LIB margin. So it’s likely the Liberals would commit more resources to Prahran instead.
Whether it be the seats of Macnamara, Albert Park, Prahran or Caulfield, the Liberals finish third in the area around St Kilda at pretty much every election nowadays, and their vote is only decreasing with each election.
That’s all just hypothetical of course and I don’t think there’s any way those boundaries could ever work on current population numbers anyway…. But there’s no way a hypothetical St Kilda based seat would have Labor finishing below the Liberals, or the Liberals putting in more effort than Labor especially when such a redistribution would increase their chances in Albert Park and Prahran, and take Labor out of the race in Brighton & Caulfield.
Trent
In May for example, the Liberal primary vote was between 14-16% across St Kilda while the Labor primary vote was in the mid-30s. And at state level, the Labor vote was even higher (they actually beat the Greens).
——————-
Geez only a few elections ago they were polling low 20s to low 30s in parts of that area.
The key difference between federal and state is the amount of resources the ALP are going to use. They had to go all in on every winnable seat federally because they knew it was going to be tight and the government had incumbency advantage in some of the seats. The ALP in this scenario have a comfortable majority, and can afford to pick and choose what seats to defend and what seats to attack. It seems like they may well let Mr. Kennedy ride off into retirement in Hawthorn and let the Teals scrap it out with Pesutto. Brighton, Caulfield, Sandringham, all these seats are super marginal, will the ALP really go full out to gain those seats? They are far more important to the Liberals than to the ALP. I think they would be more likely to use those resources to defend Bayswater, Bass, Box Hill and attack seats like Ripon which got the redistribution, and Hastings and Morwell with no incumbents.
@Mexicanbeemer: Yeah their vote has been declining in the area a lot.
Across the booths in St Kilda (the suburb) the Liberal primary vote was in the low to mid 20s in 2016 under Turnbull, the high teens in both the 2018 state election and 2019 federal election, and then mid teens in May.
It’s slightly higher in the surrounding suburbs but not by much, especially around Balaclava & St Kilda East where it tends to only be maybe 3-5% higher than St Kilda (if at all). Elwood was the only suburb where the Libs managed to top 30% back in 2016, and that may have only been the more southern booth closer to Brighton if I remember correctly.
But even under Turnbull in 2016, the only recent election where inner Melbourne swung towards the Liberals, they still finished third across the St Kilda area despite Michael Danby being incredibly unpopular in the area, so I can’t see them topping that result any time in the foreseeable future. The combination of Turnbull + Danby was about as favourable a condition as the Libs could hope for.
Correction, I just looked up the 2016 results and they were a little more favourable to the Libs than I remembered. There were 3 booths where the Liberals did very well:
– Elwood (39%)
– Elwood North (31%)
– Ripponlea East (36%), this booth is only 150m from Caulfield North
Across the remainder of St Kilda, St Kilda East and Balaclava though, the results averaged:
GRN 37%, ALP 27%, LIB 26%.
So a bit better than I thought but still third place. And as I said, that was in an election where the conditions were about as favourable for the Liberals as possible with an incredibly unpopular Labor MP, and a Liberal PM that people hoped would be very progressive.
The Liberal vote absolutely plummeted 2 years later though in all the corresponding (or nearest) booths across the state seats of Albert Park, Prahran, Brighton & Caulfield, and has only deteriorated further in the last 2 federal elections.
The Liberals’ best result across the area in May was 24% at the same Elwood booth that got 39% in 2016. Labor & Greens each got 33%. In the other 2 Elwood booths the Libs were only 15% and 20%, and even the Ripponlea East booth was below 20%.
Another factor to consider with the Victorian Liberals is that Tim Smith seems to have been this state’s equivalent to Troy Buswell over in WA.
A relatively young, privileged golden child that was meant to represent the youth of a new age for the Liberals. I remember his puffy pale face being aired everywhere during the first year of the pandemic as he breathlessly spouted his cooker nonsense to everyone who would listen to him, which incidentally was most of the media.
Then it all came to a crashing halt for him in that drunken drive in Hawthorn in 2021. Especially damaging since the Victorian Liberals seemed so keen on him being the heir designate once he had a few terms of experience, and with a safe lower house seat and everything.
And he blew it all as bad as he did on the breathometer that night.
The WA Liberals still attempted to hold on to Buswell’s reputation after his long fall from 2008, with old Colin Barnett on the leadership horse in his rusty armor but Buswell’s scandals were too much, so he resigned in 2014 and it all fell to pieces in 2017, and the pieces crumbled to dust in 2021.
The numbers say that story may repeat in Victoria next month. While I don’t think it’ll be quite as devastating as the 70-30 result they got there, they seem to be on a similar trajectory.
If there is another ‘Danslide’ I can’t help but think that a Murdoch Commentator or unhinged L/NP member will claim on Sky News that the election was rigged and there was voter fraud. It would represent a new low but the Australian Right is so unbelievably cooked at the moment I wouldn’t be surprised.
In a preferential voting system, it’s certainly possible for a party to win government with a primary hovering around 30%, but not when the party you are trying to oust is on a 40+ primary and is likely to receive the majority of preferences from another party polling in the low-to-mid teens. The only way Matt Guy is taking office in November is if there’s a dramatic turnaround in the next month or if the polls are totally wrong.
Probably one of the most extraordinary election results in recent history in Victoria was the 1970 election, where Henry Bolte’s Liberals won a majority government with 36.7% of the vote for 42 out of 73 seats, not even needing the Country party as a coalition partner when they had 6.4% of the vote with 8 seats, opposing Labor won 41.4% of the vote with 22 seats. The real force was the DLP with 13.3% of the vote, which was directed to the Liberals on about an 85-15 preference flow.
Depending how the preferences flow, it can really go one way or another. And unlike 1970, the preference flow does seem to preference Labor.
What simmo888 said. The cookers in their twitter echo chamber don’t believe the poll, and they probably won’t believe the election result if Labor are returned. Get ready for the CBD being clogged with nutjobs for a weekend or three.
And that’s likely why the Liberals are going to lose. We all remember the Cookers doing their riots last September, blocking and terrorizing innocent people trapped on the Westgate Bridge, “occupying” and urinating on the Shrine of Remembrance, punching police horses, spitting on healthcare workers trying to provide vaccines to the homeless, trying to do a January 6 riot on the Victorian Parliament with gallows.
The Herald Sun and their alt-right media allies might want us to forget all that, but most of us won’t.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, October 19, 2022 at 6:49 pm
And that’s likely why the Liberals are going to lose. We all remember the Cookers doing their riots last September, blocking and terrorizing innocent people trapped on the Westgate Bridge, “occupying” and urinating on the Shrine of Remembrance, punching police horses, spitting on healthcare workers trying to provide vaccines to the homeless, trying to do a January 6 riot on the Victorian Parliament with gallows.
The Herald Sun and their alt-right media allies might want us to forget all that, but most of us won’t.
___________________________
Hate to be in an echo chamber but ….. what Kirsdarke said!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/14/victorian-election-guide-3/comment-page-3/#comment-3995817
The ALP had Country Party preferences (although there was leakage) in 1970, as a measure to try and avoid another Liberal majority, but the ALP preferenced the Liberals party in some of the Country Party seats.
ALP preferences handed the Liberals 2 seats, Gippsland South and Lowan, allowing the Liberals to retain their majority.
Country Party preferences helped the ALP retain Midlands, gain Portland, Dundas, Kara Kara and Gippsland Province, nearly win Narracan and get within 3% in Gippsland West.
@Kirksdarke, that’s really interesting about the 1970 election!
Funnily enough, those 1970 numbers (ALP 41% versus LIB 36% and DLP 13% with their preferences going 85/15 to LIB) is almost an exact mirror image of typical election results in recent years which tended to be roughly 40% LNP versus mid-30s ALP and 10-13% GRN with their preferences going 85/15 to ALP.
B.S. Fairman on Mon 17 at 4.39 pm re the retention of group ticket voting in Council
Kevin Bonham has some direct observations at:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/10/victorian-party-policies-on-fixing.html
Trent
Your observations about the Liberal Party losing its reason to exist in the State of Menzies should be compulsory reading for every Liberal politician.
It’s crashed as a viable force. It has left those conservative voters nowhere to go except to quality independents. Voters in the middle don’t trust the liberals because they lack Leaders of substance and conviction.
Until recently, I would have bet on a minority ALP Government. Despite the Herald Sun and Neil Mitchell, Dan could invoke a political miracle.
NSW is heading the same way.
If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the country. Those lines from Gough are even more potent in the current political landscape.