The Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election is now open for business, featuring comprehensive detail on all 88 lower house seats – their histories, boundaries, demographics, redistribution effects and main candidates, together with interactive booth results maps from 2018 and tables and charts summarising past election results – and an overview page. All that’s missing is a guide to the Legislative Council, which will follow in due course. If this is of any value to you, a reward for the extensive effort involved in the form of a donation would be much appreciated – these can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page.
To summarise the situation, I repaste below the “redistribution and electoral arithmetic” section from the overview page:
The parliament has ended its term with the same party representation in the lower house that it started with, as an otherwise highly eventful four years passed with no by-elections or party members moving to the cross bench. The results at the 2018 election were 55 seats for Labor, 21 for the Liberals and six for the Nationals, three for the Greens, and three for independents. However, the election will see no fewer than thirteen of Labor’s lower house members retire, and while few of these are in seats that represent strong opportunities for the Liberals, they will complicate Labor’s efforts to defend Richmond and Albert Park from the Greens and Bellarine from an independent. The four seats where Liberals are retiring include highly marginal Hastings and historically blue-ribbon Kew, where the departure of Tim Smith has probably done the Liberal cause more good than harm in the face of the teal independent threat.
After two terms and eight years on the same set of electoral boundaries, the election will give effect to an extensive redistribution that has abolished three seats in Melbourne’s stagnant eastern suburbs and created new ones in the city’s west, outer north, and outer south-east. While two seats held by Labor and one held by the Liberals have been replaced by corresponding numbers of notional Labor and Liberal seats, the changes are to Labor’s advantage in that two of the new seats are highly safe for Labor while the abolished Labor-held seat of Mount Waverley is a normally Liberal-leaning marginal. The redistribution has also produced notional Labor margins in four Liberal-held seats (Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon and Pakenham, the latter having replaced Gembrook), while sending only two seats the other way (Bayswater and Bass).
Another complication to the arithmetic arises from the retirement of Russell Northe, one of the chamber’s three independents. Northe’s Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell gave Labor 54.0% of the two-party preferred vote in 2018 against the Nationals, such that it can be treated as a notional Labor seat in his absence. Adding this to its net gains and losses from the redistribution, Labor goes into the election with a notional 58 seats compared with the 55 it won in 2018, while the Liberals are down from 21 to 19. The Nationals remain on six, each on margins safer than any enjoyed by the Liberals, while Mildura and Shepparton are held by independents who will re-contest their seats.
On the assumption of a uniform swing and no change to the status quo in terms of minor parties and independents, a Coalition majority government would require a daunting gain of 20 seats and a swing of 10.4%. While the Greens could make inroads into the Labor majority, with the inner-city seats of Richmond, Northcote and perhaps Albert Park rated as strong possibilities, a uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of nearly 10% would still be needed to cut deeply enough into Labor’s numbers to reduce it to a minority.
The federal election result has also inspired a wave of candidates hoping to follow in the footsteps of the teal independents, many drawing support from the same local networks and the fundraising efforts of Climate 200. As at the federal election though, where teal independents cost the Liberals the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the risk here is largely on the Liberal side of the ledger. Seats where independent campaigns have enjoyed substantial media attention include Kew, Brighton and the country seat of South-West Coast, which respectively correspond largely or entirely with Kooyong, Goldstein and Wannon, the latter also having produced a strong result for an independent at the federal election. However, well-organised independent campaigns have also emerged in the Labor-held seats of Hawthorn and Bellarine.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The general discussion thread is here.
Good work William.
I like the % overlap with Federal seats.
Libs are up against it.
South-West Coast will turn independent even though Britnell has been ok.
TaylorMade
Why the possible loss for the liberals in South west coast?
What is the reason for this electorate to go independent?
Will there be a Roy Morgan poll published today? The last one was published a month ago.
Sportsbet: ALP 1.08, Libs 8.00
Game over.
I live in the seat of Hawthorn and the independent campaign here so far is about 1% of the wattage of Monique Ryan plus there’s a sitting Labor member rather than Labor and the Greens running dead…. I don’t think the indy has much chance here on current evidence.
Thus far both anecdotally and on the data I’m seeing another Danslide notwithstanding that the Melbourne print media is clearly frustrated that Melbournians are gosh darn not listening to the Liberals. Didn’t we all hear the public transport policy, asks Annika Smethurst today with an undertone of “how can you guys not all be lining up to vote for such a great policy!!!”.
I think Arky that not many believe that the fares would be cut to $2 daily without a substantial reduction in services.
Yes, it’s clear that the “mission” for the Vic Coalition is just about impossible. So, the interesting thing will be the comparative result for the ALP, Greens and Teals. In general, there seems to be a propensity to think that, grounded on the recent federal election results, both Greens and Teals will continue to advance and perhaps gain a handful of seats. Not enough to challenge a solid Labor majority government, but enough to cheer themselves up.
I have some doubts. If there is any federal effect trickling down on this Victorian election it will have already been somewhat compensated by the good performance of the Albo ALP government. At the federal election, Albo and the ALP went to “battle” against a massive propaganda (from right and left) about their capacities, honesty, blah, blah. That was grounded on the natural doubts that the voters may have felt against a party that had not been in government for 9 years. But now there is a list of serious achievements in government (not to speak of the achievements of the Vic Labor government in the past 4 years), and so the Greens and Teals propaganda won’t work as well as they might expect. The Teals could still go up, given the trend of the Coalition to go down. But if I was the Greens, I wouldn’t be so relaxed.
Gollsays:
Friday, October 14, 2022 at 8:05 am
TaylorMade
Why the possible loss for the liberals in South west coast?
What is the reason for this electorate to go independent?
_____________________
In case you hadn’t noticed there has been a shift away from the major parties in recent years.
Lefty sea and tree changers moving into a rural electorate.
The independent candidate is very well known.
Just my prediction. We will have to wait until election night. Cant see the Labor candidate getting up though, not after what happened to the Warrnambool City Council.
The shift away from the major parties has been happening for forty years at least. It’s only recently that commentators have taken notice, now that we’ve reached the point where minor parties and independents are winning, or threatening to win, seats.
The majors really should have done something to address the concerns of voters looking for alternatives when the ‘other’ vote was four or five percent, instead of waiting until the slow gain of momentum might be unstoppable.
Lobster Guy – The Return. Completely cooked, with a heavy dose of salt.
Arky at 8.58
…the Melbourne print media is clearly frustrated that Melbournians are gosh darn not listening to the Liberals…
____________
Even worse, Melburnians aren’t listening to the MSM! I mean, how dare the citizenry ignore our pro-Coalition (or is it anti-Dan) cheerleading!
@Arky: “I live in the seat of Hawthorn and the independent campaign here so far is about 1% of the wattage of Monique Ryan plus there’s a sitting Labor member rather than Labor and the Greens running dead…. I don’t think the indy has much chance here on current evidence.
Thus far both anecdotally and on the data I’m seeing another Danslide notwithstanding that the Melbourne print media is clearly frustrated that Melbournians are gosh darn not listening to the Liberals. Didn’t we all hear the public transport policy, asks Annika Smethurst today with an undertone of “how can you guys not all be lining up to vote for such a great policy!!!”.
——————–
100% agree with all of that. This election doesn’t have the ingredients for teal success:
* The donation caps will disadvantage them;
* They really rely on huge momentum, to the point where voters truly believe the real contest is only between the IND & LIB, this is how you get the majority of ALP/GRN voters to flip their vote, but there’s no evidence of anywhere near the level of momentum Ryan or Daniels had;
* You also only flip that many ALP/GRN votes to a teal if there’s a belief that ALP or Greens can’t win, that is not the case in seats that range between 0.6% ALP and 0.5% LIB margins (Hawthorn, Caulfield, Brighton & Sandringham are all within that range)
* Quality of candidates: Monique Ryan & Zoe Daniels not only had a high profile already, but were also of that swinging “I voted for the Libs under Turnbull but not Morrison” sweet spot that gave them swinging/small “l” credentials. Here we have a Hawthorn independent who already has a scandal, a Brighton “independent” who is a Liberal member that lost preselection (why would ALP/GRN voters swing to her?), a Caulfield “independent” who was a Labor member just this year, and a Sandringham independent who has already unsuccessfully run twice.
Kew is probably the best chance a teal has at the moment because it’s less competitive for Labor; but those other issues around momentum, funding, profile of independent etc still make it a long shot.
I am so surprised there’s no independent in Malvern because the right high profile independent could definitely win there.
As for Annika Smethurst’s article this morning, I saw that too and just shook my head. The article was basically just trying to justify why people are distracted from the Liberals’ oh so great policies. Most people know though that the public transport system needs improvement and investment, and cutting revenue is basically a red flag that there will be no investment in improving it under them.
It’s getting closer and closer to the election and there have still been no signs of increased support for the Liberals. And in fact, despite Labor being in government federally, it is likely to be the Liberals who are federally dragged by two things – the still fresh memory of the awful and unpopular Morrison government, and being led by Peter Dutton who is absolutely toxic in this state – while Labor will actually get a boost from federal Labor riding high and still enjoying an extended honeymoon period.
Last time in 2018 State election Dutton campaigned on marauding “African gangs”. What will he campaign on this time with that Neil Mitchell guy favourably disposed towards LNP.
I’m guessing the Victorian Liberals will be asking Dutton to stay as far away from Victoria between now and 26 November as possible, and hoping he even keeps as low a profile as federal opposition leader as possible.
Meanwhile, Labor are probably printing up their posters of Matthew Guy & Peter Dutton’s faces next to each other as we speak!
Looking at the betting markets, Sportsbet have Independants at $6 or less in 16 seats.
Shepparton – $1.02 (incumbent)
Mildura – $1.40 (incumbent)
Kew – $1.85 (Lib by 4.7% vs. ALP)
Mornington – $2.05 (Lib by 5.0% vs. ALP)
Benambra – $2.15 (Lib by 2.6% vs. IND)
Caulfield – $2.20 (Notional ALP by 0.02% vs. Lib)
Hawthorn – $2.40 (ALP by 0.6% vs. Lib)
Point Cook – $2.50 (ALP by 12.8% vs. Lib)
Box Hill – $4.00 (ALP by 3.1% vs. Lib)
Brighton – $4.00 (Lib by 0.5% vs. ALP)
Sandringham – $4.00 (Lib by 0.4% vs. ALP)
Bellarine – $4.50 (ALP by 11.4% vs. Lib)
South-West Coast – $5.00 (Lib by 3.2% vs. ALP)
Werribee – $5.50 (ALP by 9.1% vs. IND)
Bass – $6.00 (Notional LIB by 0.7% vs. ALP)
Melton – $6.00 (ALP by 5.0% vs. LNP)
I think the Independents will have the best chance in Benambra where the independents narrowly lost in 2018, and South-West Coast where the Independent was eliminated on the 2nd last count only a few thousand votes behind the Lib and ALP candidate.
Then you have the traditionally safe Lib seats held by small margins like Kew, Brighton, Mornington, and Caulfield. The ALP will likey commit minimal resources to these seats, and in some case completely run dead. This could give the independents a chance to squeeze into second place and get elected on ALP preferences.
I don’t rate the Independents chances to take the seats won by the ALP from the Libs in 2018 such as Hawthorn, Box Hill and Bass. ALP will commit resources to defending these seats and this makes it hard for an Independent to make into the final count.
Finally there are the traditionally safe ALP seats in Western Melbourne such as Melton, Werribee and Point Cook where the independents are backing on anti-ALP backlash based on the ALP taking them for granted for too long. I don’t rate the Independents chances as highly as the bookmakers do in these seats.
Somewhat interestingly from a psephological perspective, the Liberals have been pushing an embarrassingly transparent single issue running mate in Bayswater, Chloe Mackallah ( https://chloemackallah.com.au/ ).
Her corflute signage is everywhere, at least comparable in volume to the major parties, includes both an LGBTQI rainbow and the Aboriginal Flag, and is dominated by feminist purple, if the types of voters they’re hoping to attract wasn’t already completely clear.
Nick Wakeling, the Liberal candidate and current member for Ferntree Gully, has hung his campaign on a couple of pretty marginal issues, another “feasibility study” to extend the tram line to Knox City Shopping Centre, and “Save Lake Knox”, which is an astroturfed community campaign run informally out of Wakeling’s office around a campaign to “save” an old, toxic, agricultural dam in the back of nowhere on former Department of Agriculture land now slated for redevelopment.
It’s hard to say how many genuine community members are actively involved in the Save Lake Knox group, almost certainly no more than a couple of hundred, and it’s safe to say that most of these decided on their vote long ago given that Nick Wakling has been milking the group for years to win cheap political points.
Whether it will have any impact at all will depend on whether the Liberals can convince a few of their usual volunteers to don a purple shirt for a shift or two on prepoll and the bigger booths. I guess the calculation is that with less than 300 votes in it at last election even a small nudge might be enough.
For my money, however, it feels like a lot of Liberal cash is being wasted on a distraction that if anything is depriving the local Liberal campaign of oxygen, and could easily backfire by giving the odd person who does support the Save Lake Knox campaign an opportunity to register a protest vote before returning their preferences to the ALP.
I agree that’s a very odd tactic.
Her clearly progressive credentials indicate they may be hoping she swipes some ALP/GRN votes then the Libs might get a portion of them back as preferences, which could be decisive in a close seat, but like you say the bigger risk is probably that some anti-Labor protest vote goes to her instead then once the first preference “protest” is out of their system, comes back to Labor via preferences anyway (particularly given the type of voter a transgender environmentalist will appeal to!)
Your previews are missing several Greens, minor party, and independent candidates. I think there will be a large number of independents with double digit vote share, how many of them actually get elected is another story. The most obvious seat for an independent gain is Benambra, South-West Coast is also a good shot given what happened in Wannon, and the fact that the ALP candidate was the mayor of a council who had all of its incumbents voted off. I think ALP are happy to let the Climate200 independents have a go at Kew and Mornington and they are a good shot there. In addition, there are two western suburbs independents, Ian Birchall in Melton and Joe Garra in Point Cook who are well known and ran last time. Melton is helped by the fact that the Liberal candidate was parachuted in after losing preselection elsewhere. Point Cook has the ALP candidate parachuted in from Frankston. There are some other seats that independents may not win but their preferences could decide the seat, the obvious quartet of Hawthorn Brighton Sandringham and Caulfield but also seats with long serving councillors running in Morwell, Pakenham, and Rowville. Another quirk is that 6 of the 11 seats with Nationals candidates also have Liberal candidates.
Asking a friend.
Is it possible Dan Andrews allowed the current LC voting arrangement to please the micro parties? Is it possible that their 90% legislative support in LC was based on the hand shake agreement where Dan Andrews lets the current arrangement stay for their support?
Chloe Mackallah is in no way connected to the Liberal party, and represents a group of Knox community members who are concerned about development at the cost of local ecosystems.
She is fully funded by donations from individual community members, and has made no deals with any party.
SaveLakeKnox says:
Friday, October 14, 2022 at 4:47 pm
Chloe Mackallah is in no way connected to the Liberal party, and represents a group of Knox community members who are concerned about development at the cost of local ecosystems.
She is fully funded by donations from individual community members, and has made no deals with any party.
___________________________________
May be true but her material is very anti-Dan….
We will know when we see her preferences, won’t we?
I have never heard of Lake Knox.
Ven @ #20 Friday, October 14th, 2022 – 2:38 pm
Possibly, although just annoying the greens is reason enough
Prediction No.1 (and not being on the ground in Victoria which is a big disadvantage).
I’d like to believe otherwise but think that Victorians are going to go 57/43 to Labor again.
Rationale: polling, judgement based on 40 years of following Oz elections, general view about Victorian sensibilities.
The floods are a possible wild card, especially if things get as bad in Shepparton as forecasts suggest they might. That said, history (not least Page in the federal election) suggests that natural disasters tend to favour (politically) incumbent MPs.
(I expect the independent in Shepparton will be re-elected, but the odds quoted above look ridiculously short).
Cranbourne has got to be the most perfectly square electorate in the history of mapping. (Couldn’t the VEC have sliced off that petrol station on South Gippsland Hwy?) Reminds me of the cover of The Beasts Of Suburban by TISM.
I don’t reckon the teals will do much. People voting for them federally were motivated by getting rid of Liberal MPs in seats Labor couldn’t win, and getting rid of a Liberal govt. When the seats involved are marginal or even Labor-held, and there isn’t a Liberal govt, those motivations aren’t there.
Independents in seats like SW Coast and Benambra may do well (as in 2018), and there might be a few surprises in the western suburbs. Labor could win the election comfortably while getting a black eye in its own safe seats, kinda like 1996 in reverse.
The floods in Shepparton will only be a problem for Suzanna Sheed if she buggers off to the Gold Coast for a holiday, which helped Craig Ingram lose Gippsland East back in 2010. Hopefully she won’t repeat that mistake.
@Ven: quite possible. It’s also possible Dan just doesn’t believe in rocking a boat that is doing very well for him over an issue that mostly only concerns psephs outside of the 5 seconds after each election where people get indignant about so and so being elected on a primary vote of like 0.05%.
If I was a betting man I’d be getting on the selling end of those Indie odds for all the seats outside of the existing independents and South West Coast. The odds are way too short based on sentiment from the Federal election Teals and a lack of public seat polling.
I’d probably add Benambra to that list, but otherwise, yes.
“Historyintime says:
Friday, October 14, 2022 at 8:01 pm
Prediction No.1 (and not being on the ground in Victoria which is a big disadvantage).
I’d like to believe otherwise but think that Victorians are going to go 57/43 to Labor again.
Rationale: polling, judgement based on 40 years of following Oz elections, general view about Victorian sensibilities.”…
Yes, I agree. Victorians have shifted towards the Progressive side of politics, and they don’t seem to have any intention to change. Incidentally, the ACT is even more impressively Progressive!
@Ven
Nah, no secret handshakes. It’s exactly what it looks like – just a way to keep the Green LC seats to a minimum.
Alpo says:
Yes, I agree. Victorians have shifted towards the Progressive side of politics, and they don’t seem to have any intention to change. Incidentally, the ACT is even more impressively Progressive!
————————-
Victoria has had a strong progressive lend throughout its history with a few conservative periods but even then they were more progressive than reactionary . Albert Dunstan is perhaps the Victorian premier that best fits what other states would call a conservative premier.
MABWM says:
Friday, October 14, 2022 at 5:53 pm
I have never heard of Lake Knox.
—
Unsurprising, since it’s not real.
Save Lake Know wrote, “Chloe Mackallah is in no way connected to the Liberal party, and represents a group of Knox community members who are concerned about development at the cost of local ecosystems.
She is fully funded by donations from individual community members, and has made no deals with any party.”
What a load of tosh! I work next door to this lake. An ‘ecosystem’? It is on land used by an agricultural research centre and is toxic. All the herbicides and other chemicals used on site have been washed into it. Also, you have failed to mention that the new development contains construction of a wet land area. Also, you fail to mention that the Andrews government have announced that their development of Blind Creek in resurrecting it back into a running creek, instead of being underground, will be extended.
This looks like a clear win for Dan the man. What is interesting as an observer from far away Qld. is that like here the LNP have made themselves unelectable at state level in Vic. I think the Qld. Government is reasonably competent but that’s not what keeps them in power, it is the complete uselessness of an opposition which doesn’t reflect modern values or put in any hard work , just carps and whinges about ridiculous things and they all look like the sort of people you would try and avoid. The Victorian opposition has in the past looked to peripheral issues like the allegedly unruly behaviour of Sudanese youths, the Qld LNP hinged their hopes on demonising indigenous youths of Far NQ which would deliver them a swag of Far Q seats ( didn’t happen). These issues might trigger some irrational anger especially amongst the older folks but are not the bread and butter stuff. Federally Dutton seems to be on this track, it’s the wrong track that will only result in a self inflicted wedgie.
“Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 12:29 am
Alpo says:
Yes, I agree. Victorians have shifted towards the Progressive side of politics, and they don’t seem to have any intention to change. Incidentally, the ACT is even more impressively Progressive!
————————-
Victoria has had a strong progressive lend throughout its history with a few conservative periods but even then they were more progressive than reactionary . Albert Dunstan is perhaps the Victorian premier that best fits what other states would call a conservative premier.”
Hmm, now that you mention it, it’s true that even the Conservative Menzies (a Victorian) would look quite progressive these days with regard to his government policies, if compared to the modern Liberals such as Howard, Abbott, Morrison… all from NSW.
“Prince planet says:
Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 8:31 am”
I also live in Qld and I agree with you with regard to the LNP state opposition. Yet, I force myself to watch the news of one private channel, in my case I chose Ch 7, just to see what the usual MSM (outside SBS and ABC) are on about. If that’s the only source of news for anybody, you would expect the state ALP government to be smashed to pieces at the next state election: they can’t “get anything right”, “bunch of incompetents”, “a total disaster”, “innuendos about potential corruption”, “the state is collapsing under the ALP administration”…. god save us!!…. Blah, blah. The question is: will that level of propaganda and brainwashing work at the next Qld state election? Surprisingly, the effect as shown in opinion polls is rather lukewarm. The only two opinion polls available for 2022 show the ALP ahead in one, with a 2PP of 52%, and the other (more recent) is a 50% draw.
Ven,
I wrote a post on a previous Victorian election thread about why Labor doesn’t want the LC voting system reformed. Essentially it’s because they were spooked by the 2010 election.
That election, which happened before preference-harvesting kicked in, delivered the coalition an upper house majority. The fear (correct in my view) is that if preference-harvesting is killed, the same result could happen again. There would also be a real possibility of Labor winning the lower house but the coalition getting a blocking majority in the upper.
Yes, 2010 was an unusual case because a redistribution was overdue, and that favoured the coalition, but it still demonstrated a genuine danger.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/10/victorian-party-policies-on-fixing.html
Victorian Party Policies On Fixing Group Ticket Voting
Ongoing article – will be edited through the campaign as more info on party policies (if any) on fixing Victoria’s disgracefully broken upper house electoral system comes to light.
If Vic went to a Senate style system I don’t see a serious chance of the Coalition getting even a blocking majority in the upper house at an election Labor won. Possible but distinctly unlikely. The main reason is that as the minor party vote has increased, the Coalition’s primary vote share in the upper house has been dropping compared to its lower house primary vote and 2PP. For instance taking 9% off Labor and giving it to the Coalition with the 2018 upper house results as a base (the 9% matches the 2PP swing back to the Coalition’s winning lower house 2PP in 2019) I get the Coalition on 19-20 upper house seats in an election where they win the 2PP as substantially as in 2010 in the lower house. Shooters get one in N Vic and the rest are all ALP and Greens. (Of course, Shooters might not do so well in N Vic this time but other specific minor parties including Greens might well do better elsewhere.)
But that’s just with holding the minor party vote share level with 2018, if anything it will more likely increase making a Coalition blocking majority harder. If the Coalition’s lineball at best to get a “blocking majority” in an election it narrowly wins the 2PP in, it’s not likely to get one when it loses. Maybe Labor might win the lower house while decisively losing the 2PP and face a blocked upper house but I don’t think there’s a victim there and there is a DD option anyway.
Likewise Labor produced all kinds of scare campaigns about how Senate reform was going to cause inevitable deadlocks and Labor would come to power with a blocked Senate, and Labor has now come to power federally and nothing remotely like what they were scared of has occurred.
Ultimately at some point Labor has to admit that if the aim of the game was making majorities in the upper house hard for the other side, then picking a district magnitude of 5 was unbelievably silly (that took only two elections to blow up in their faces). And they should have known it was silly because Tasmania in 1996 had gone over to a district magnitude of 5 with the precise aim of increasing the chance of government majorities compared to a magnitude of 7.
Regarding Lake Knox – to clarify, that’s not its official name (it doesn’t have one).
It’s not a natural body of water, and it’s not open to the public, but it has been there long enough to have some useful ecological role. The main one being that there are endangered Blue-billed Ducks living there.
The development plans include partially filling it in, which would in theory make it more like a natural wetland, than the current open pond. Not sure about the effects that would have, other than that the aforementioned ducks like the deeper open water, of which there isn’t much else locally.
Save Lake Knox people are arguing that as a rebuilt wetland it will collect runoff from roads etc (as most in Melbourne do), but that may not be any worse than the pollution that’s already in it.
There is an arboretum lake populated by ducks less than 2 kilometers away.
My guess is the Save Lake Knox mob will be about as effective as the Skyrail protesters in Murrumbeena who made a whole lot of noise but Labor got a +10% swing across the suburb anyway lol.
Just a fringe anti-Labor group hoping some non-existent issue will swing voters away from Labor.
Alpo@955am
Yep, the Labor Government in Qld is copping it with both barrels from 7,9 and 2. Some nights on 7, Opposition Leader Crisafulli is on two or three times. One night recently, he scored 4, yes 4 , separate segments. Sevens chief political reporter uses loaded comments such as” hiding information, dodging questions, refusing interviews”.
But, as as you say, the Government is pretty competent by fair standards. It is, however showing signs of a government that has been in power for 3 terms.
In Victoria, Andrews has had the media against him all the time as well and will be returned in November. He is helped by an abysmal Opposition Leader and policies equally abysmal and out of- touch with progressive values.
Here in Qld, Crisafulli has a reasonable profile but tends to be a one- man- band. His front – bench has one or two seemingly competent members, but as a whole, not an election- winning team.
My view is that, apart from a SE Qld based Leader, the State Opposition consists of a National Party dominated crew that cannot win enough seats in the SE corner to take government. It is simply, like its Federal counterpart, conservative, pro-development to the detriment of the environment, has the typical conservative “law and order” pro -police program, is pro -Coal, pro- land clearing and regional based politic which is so out of step with a distinctly more progressive SE Qld.
Yes, there will be a push by the pro – LNP media to highlight Labor failings and ” it’s time for a change” theme.
Just under two years to the next election. Can the LNP and its partisan media keep up the barrage?
Will people basically turn-off the insistent message?
We will see. But I believe the government has time to address and deal with the issues pushed by the media, and display its competency. It has the advantage of being in government.
The fundamental weakness of the Opposition will be exposed in the fierce fire of an electoral campaign. Crisafulli cannot hold the fort alone.
Finally, the media could not win it for Morrison. It can not win it for Guy. It cannot win it for Crisafulli.
This blog reminds me how much elections have changed. The rusted ons are dwindling in numbers. Voters have stopped getting involved.
In Victoria the election is a superficial battle between the Herald Sun and the Age. They don’t hold back. Neil Mitchell is battling with Dan – who could not give a rats.
The media has been replaced by the net,
The Liberals will disappear.
Entirely unsourced rumours are the Eildon is 101% full, is letting out 38,000 megs, but that the inflow is still more than double that… …will the floods have an electoral impact?
There will be many begging bowls out over the next month…
There are around 12,000 Blue-billed Duck.
A dozen or two less here or there would make no material difference to their prospects for survival.
“Gettysburg1863 says:
Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 5:42 pm”
Re: Qld state politics.
Yes, I agree with your broad assessment. Your point about the dangers of being a long-term government is quite valid and the Qld ALP team should seriously take it on board. They must achieve positive and palpable results during the entire term and be able to show those results to the electorate, against a media barrage of obfuscation, lies and distraction. Queenslanders are practical people and will appreciate real achievements against unfair criticisms.
I corresponded with the Save Knox Lake candidate today. When asked, she refused to deny that she would be preferencing the Tories. What she did make clear was that she hates Jackson Taylor and that she would not be preferencing him. She is a Tory preference harvester.
Melbourne Water has enormous experience in building high quality wetlands throughout Melbourne’s development areas. I have had the pleasure of inspecting a great many.
The vast majority involve a complex series of basins, starting from gross pollutant/sediment traps that can be cleaned out regularly, transitioning to rain garden systems with carefully selected aquatic species to treat nitrogen and other contaminants, and finishing with mixed deeper ponds of clear water.
The entire system is planted to the top of the waterway and wetland banks with a mixture of locally indigenous, riparian species.
Part of the problem here is a general and unfocused distrust of any development whatsoever (normally driven by an underlying NIMBYism) and the government (not entirely without justification, although more at the elected official level in that case), coupled with a more generalized fear of change.
This typically comes out in the prominent refrain that “the government just doesn’t listen”, which is in reality just “the government isn’t doing exactly what I told them to do”.
No, we did listen. We even asked a bunch of exceptionally well qualified professionals to analyze your ideas. The outcome of that analysis is that the opinions you formed after partially skimming over a blog and a few comments in the Herald Sun were of no value other than to demonstrate your scientific and ecological illiteracy.
@clem
I don’t think it matters who she puts on her HTV – the kind of Green-leaning voters she’s angling for don’t tend to follow HTVs anyway if they put Libs above Labor. And the ones who do, were Lib voting nimbys anyway.