The Poll Bludger’s guide to the November 26 Victorian state election is now open for business, featuring comprehensive detail on all 88 lower house seats – their histories, boundaries, demographics, redistribution effects and main candidates, together with interactive booth results maps from 2018 and tables and charts summarising past election results – and an overview page. All that’s missing is a guide to the Legislative Council, which will follow in due course. If this is of any value to you, a reward for the extensive effort involved in the form of a donation would be much appreciated – these can be made through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page.
To summarise the situation, I repaste below the “redistribution and electoral arithmetic” section from the overview page:
The parliament has ended its term with the same party representation in the lower house that it started with, as an otherwise highly eventful four years passed with no by-elections or party members moving to the cross bench. The results at the 2018 election were 55 seats for Labor, 21 for the Liberals and six for the Nationals, three for the Greens, and three for independents. However, the election will see no fewer than thirteen of Labor’s lower house members retire, and while few of these are in seats that represent strong opportunities for the Liberals, they will complicate Labor’s efforts to defend Richmond and Albert Park from the Greens and Bellarine from an independent. The four seats where Liberals are retiring include highly marginal Hastings and historically blue-ribbon Kew, where the departure of Tim Smith has probably done the Liberal cause more good than harm in the face of the teal independent threat.
After two terms and eight years on the same set of electoral boundaries, the election will give effect to an extensive redistribution that has abolished three seats in Melbourne’s stagnant eastern suburbs and created new ones in the city’s west, outer north, and outer south-east. While two seats held by Labor and one held by the Liberals have been replaced by corresponding numbers of notional Labor and Liberal seats, the changes are to Labor’s advantage in that two of the new seats are highly safe for Labor while the abolished Labor-held seat of Mount Waverley is a normally Liberal-leaning marginal. The redistribution has also produced notional Labor margins in four Liberal-held seats (Hastings, Caulfield, Ripon and Pakenham, the latter having replaced Gembrook), while sending only two seats the other way (Bayswater and Bass).
Another complication to the arithmetic arises from the retirement of Russell Northe, one of the chamber’s three independents. Northe’s Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell gave Labor 54.0% of the two-party preferred vote in 2018 against the Nationals, such that it can be treated as a notional Labor seat in his absence. Adding this to its net gains and losses from the redistribution, Labor goes into the election with a notional 58 seats compared with the 55 it won in 2018, while the Liberals are down from 21 to 19. The Nationals remain on six, each on margins safer than any enjoyed by the Liberals, while Mildura and Shepparton are held by independents who will re-contest their seats.
On the assumption of a uniform swing and no change to the status quo in terms of minor parties and independents, a Coalition majority government would require a daunting gain of 20 seats and a swing of 10.4%. While the Greens could make inroads into the Labor majority, with the inner-city seats of Richmond, Northcote and perhaps Albert Park rated as strong possibilities, a uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of nearly 10% would still be needed to cut deeply enough into Labor’s numbers to reduce it to a minority.
The federal election result has also inspired a wave of candidates hoping to follow in the footsteps of the teal independents, many drawing support from the same local networks and the fundraising efforts of Climate 200. As at the federal election though, where teal independents cost the Liberals the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the risk here is largely on the Liberal side of the ledger. Seats where independent campaigns have enjoyed substantial media attention include Kew, Brighton and the country seat of South-West Coast, which respectively correspond largely or entirely with Kooyong, Goldstein and Wannon, the latter also having produced a strong result for an independent at the federal election. However, well-organised independent campaigns have also emerged in the Labor-held seats of Hawthorn and Bellarine.
https://www.afr.com/politics/melbourne-money-is-backing-daniel-andrews-20221019-p5bqxp
Freehills, Deloitte, the Pratt family abandon Victorian Liberals
Aaron Patrick Senior correspondent
Oct 20, 2022 – 9.17am
Four years ago, the Victorian Liberal Party was outmanoeuvred by Premier Daniel Andrews. Today, with an election one month away, it is paying the price.
In 2018, Andrews expanded public funding of election campaigns and curtailed private donations, a change he said would make politics more honest and transparent.
“We’ll give Victorians confidence that governments are making decisions on their merits, not repaying favours to big political donors,” he said.
The result was a disaster for the Liberal Party. A donation limit of $4320 per person or organisation every four years ended the Liberals’ ability to raise big sums from a relatively small group of wealthy individuals.
At the same time, the Labor Party’s success in the 2018 election secured it $13.5 million in public election funding, which was $2.8 million more than the Coalition.
……………………………………………………. Note the bit at the end below.
Liberals had expected to be helped by a party formed in 2021 called the Victorians. The party was designed to tap into anger towards Melbourne’s long lockdowns.
Even though the Victorians party presented itself as leaning towards neither Labor nor Liberal, Liberal Party officials believed it would help them win seats by siphoning off Labor votes.
The Victorians claimed to have signed up 5000 members. Several wealthy businesspeople, unhappy with the Andrews government’s lockdowns, offered to make large donations, if they could be kept anonymous, according to a person briefed on the party’s operations. (Co-founder Bill Lang declined to be interviewed.)
After closely examining the donations law, which has criminal penalties for breaches, the Victorians concluded that it would have to disclose the donations, the source said. Funding dried up, and the party was voluntarily deregistered last month.
Liberal Party officials expect to win lower-house electorates as well. In Hawthorn, one of its target seats, the funding gap between two parties can be seen in the number of corflutes.
Labor’s are more plentiful than those for Liberal candidate John Pesutto, who some party members hope will become leader if he wins.
“Liberal Party officials expect to win lower-house electorates as well. In Hawthorn, one of its target seats, the funding gap between two parties can be seen in the number of corflutes.
Labor’s are more plentiful than those for Liberal candidate John Pesutto, who some party members hope will become leader if he wins.”
I drove through Camberwell and Canterbury yesterday and I was surprised at how many John Pessutto corflutes there were. And not a single Labor (or any other candidate for that matter) to be seen. There have been other reports that the ALP are not putting money into Hawthorn. Either all of the ALP corflutes are at the Hawthorn end or the AFR reporter has not been on the ground.
If Labor is putting significant resources into defending Hawthorn, they must truly believe the landslide is on. Under normal circumstances, winning the seat last time would be written off as a once-only fluke.
John Pessuto – a quality public figure – will win Hawthorn.
He will become Opposition Leader. Unfortunately for him, the Party Room will meet irregularly in a phone booth.
Jonathan Munz, billionaire and Liberal donor has a horse running at Ballarat at 4.30 today.
It’s called No Lockdowns!
Hope it gets beat even though a friend of mine is riding it.
@ Dr John at 4:16pm
No Lockdowns came 7th. Winner was All About Eve.
Blackburnpseph says:
I drove through Camberwell and Canterbury yesterday and I was surprised at how many John Pessutto corflutes there were. And not a single Labor (or any other candidate for that matter) to be seen. There have been other reports that the ALP are not putting money into Hawthorn. Either all of the ALP corflutes are at the Hawthorn end or the AFR reporter has not been on the ground.
——————————
Looks like the AFR reporter isn’t on the ground because when I’ve caught up with mates in the area the Liberals are more visible then the ALP but that’s to be expected because the Liberals have more members in the area than the ALP does.
Well, in promoting the Liberal candidate in Hawthorn and featuring Sophie, Willington put that there would be a minority government.
Last night on the ABC!!!
In regard the primary vote, the ALP get to above 50% on preferences
How do the Liberal Party get from a primary vote of 30% to a 2PP vote above 50%?
Remembering that almost half the Liberal Party MP’s federally are from regional Queensland
So 25 of their 50
Noting there are 150 seats in the House
And one of my mates is waiting for the Liberals to offer him money to put a sign in his front yard
Which they have done to a couple of his neighbours
He’ll take the money
And vote Independent- anyone but Liberal
Noting what Smith said of inner suburban voters
The fence is still not repaired
That right wing C&n%, Richard Wellingham describing Labor’s plan to re introduce public ownership of public of energy as “resurrecting a relic of the past.” How does this shill keep his job in the ‘independent ABC’? Also Thorpe has to resign from the Senate.
As I said earlier I absolutely wouldn’t be surprised to see ALP putting in minimal resources and leaving Hawthorn to Pesutto and the Teals, simply because the Liberals will fight with everything they have to get it back, the ALP candidate is in his 70’s and wasn’t supposed to win in the first place, and there are just much easier targets to be had like Ripon, Hastings, and Morwell. That’s what you can choose when you have a large majority. The teal can make the case of “yeah he might be a decent guy but look at his previous voting record and look at the people he’s connected to”. Literally just put up a picture of his launch party and point out every politician there that got voted out in recent years.
What is being overlooked in these former Liberal Party heartland Seats is the changing demographic in those seats.
So the older demographic selling out for all the reasons they do, renters and multi residential developments.
Hence no longer the heartland of the Liberal Party.
I would again refer to the comments of the retiring MP for Kew – putting that the future of the Party is where the religious right and Pentecostals reside, so certain outer suburbs.
Not the inner suburbs of Melbourne.
But where land was/is cheap and houses are cheaper accordingly.
And Bible Groups are active, very active.
Here we go again says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 11:58 am
What is being overlooked in these former Liberal Party heartland Seats is the changing demographic in those seats.
So the older demographic selling out for all the reasons they do, renters and multi residential developments.
———————-
Demographic change is overrated. The only Liberal lending suburb that could qualify is South Yarra that has seen substantial redevelopment around South Yarra station but in most cases the young people are the children and grand children of Liberal voters and a more significant demographic change in many wealthier areas has been the rising Asian and Indian populations and that has changed the cultural dynamics of these areas.
I’d say that to a lesser extent Hawthorn as well has had some genuine demographic change – the proximity to Swinburne University means that the younger demographic filling those new apartments aren’t necessarily of the generational old money variety like you’d see in Malvern, Kew, Armadale, Camberwell, etc where the population is getting younger, but as you say it’s the children of wealthy Liberal families.
South Yarra has definitely had a significant demographic change. It still has some wealthy and more Liberal-friendly pockets but the entire atmosphere of the area has changed a lot and the younger population moving into all the new developments really has no connection to the old Liberal demographic. It’s more like the broadly progressive professionals moving into suburbs like Cremorne, Southbank & Prahran.
I actually think South Yarra & Cremorne will become very similar to each other, eroding that north/south divide in a similar way that it doesn’t really exist between Southbank & Docklands either.
Trent says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 12:25 pm
I’d say that to a lesser extent Hawthorn as well has had some demographic change – the proximity to Swinburne University means that the younger demographic filling those new apartments aren’t necessarily of the generational old money variety like you’d see in Malvern, Kew, Armadale, Camberwell, etc.
——————————–
The area around Swinburne has for a long time looked like Richmond with its unit blocks and worker cottages and younger population but the Liberals are also losing support in Camberwell and that’s why the ALP might hold on.
Yeah I’m finding that Hawthorn is probably going to be one of the hardest seats to predict, and one of the closest races.
Mainly because there are two opposing forces which could cancel each other out.
On one hand, Pesutto should get a swing to him. Some Liberal (or ex-Liberal who swung to Labor in 2018) are likely to return to him, either because they didn’t expect him to actually lose in 2018, or simply because he’s the best chance of resuscitating their old party from the ashes.
On the other hand, that’s probably going to be countered by the general trend & swing away from the Liberals – demographics, the Libs’ change of direction, senior Lib figures openly saying they don’t even care about those voters anymore because it’s not their future, etc.
So it could be a case where voters more switched on to the candidates and thinking more strategically about the Libs’ future swing to Pesutto, but voters who are more focused on the party brand and/or policies will swing away. The question will be, which one is stronger? To me it’s a genuine 50/50 contest. Then you throw a teal into the mix, and it’s even more uncertain.
Libs could lose Caulfield, Sandringham, Brighton, Kew (to a teal), and Glen Waverley but win Hawthorn back. But for all I know, Labor could even increase their margin in Hawthorn. Anything could happen!
ALP are going to need be far enough ahead of the teal/green to stop Prahran from repeating itself in some of these electorates. A lot of “anyone but the majors” voters, AJP voters, Vic Socialists voters, and in teal seats Green voters themselves, will transfer away from the big two. I’d have to imagine the Greens will preference independents over ALP (except for the ones that are clearly cookers) in hopes of a more federal style majority rather than the WA slaughter.
I’m curious to see what the Greens will do in that regard.
As a Greens voter myself I’d be appalled if they directed preferences to the so-called “teal” in Brighton over Labor, considering the “teal” is a Liberal Party member who even attempted preselection as the Liberal candidate this year.
They may do so in seats like Caulfield & Hawthorn with the more Labor-aligned “teals” though.
But Labor’s recent announcement about recreating the SEC and accelerating the emissions targets probably goes some way to removing one of the motivations for the Greens to preference teals. The Greens are very supportive of putting services back in public hands, and the teal “base” (socially progressive, economically conservative) is probably more supportive of privatisation so it will be interesting to see where teals stand on that issue, and how it might impact Greens preferences.
As a side note, if I lived in a seat that had a teal candidate both federally & at the upcoming election, say for example Goldstein/Caulfield, then regardless of what the HTV card said as a Greens voter I would:
– Have peferenced the teal ahead of Labor in May
– Preference Labor ahead of the teal in November
(I don’t though, I live in Macnamara/Prahran)
Talk about Hawthorn’s changing demographics seems to reflect stereotyping where people thought the area was full of mansions with tennis courts and elite private schools and now that the seat has turned on the Liberals people think the demographics must have changed when its possibly a case of the left underestimating its chances and not always putting forward good enough candidates.
Mexicanbeemer wrote,”talk about Hawthorn’s changing demographics seems to reflect stereotyping where people thought the area was full of mansions with tennis courts and elite private schools…”
That is not a stereotype, that is the truth!
Although the people with mansions who went to elite private schools might not vote as solidly Liberal as they once did. To give one example, I went to something that could be called an “elite private school” (not in Melbourne) in the 1980s which was staunchly conservative then, but of those I’ve stayed in touch with, I’d say the majority now vote left of centre. Partly that reflects Australian political fault lines being less on economics and more on social/cultural issues than they were then.
My information is coming from the volunteer door knockers in Kew and is consistent with what they found door knocking for Ryan
In knocking on so many doors their descriptions have validity – confirmed by the Federal result (noting preference flows off the primary vote)
And then you have some of the older, established demographic where their vote is influenced by their children, those children living in more outlying electorates
So not now voting Liberal – climate the core issue but a raft of other issues impacting
And, of course, there is the talking up of the comments of the retiring MP for Kew and his description of those who voted for him
The damage to the fence remains – with some amusing and caustic signage now appended referring to Ted Kennedy
Our resident inner west nutjob Catherine Cumming is in fine form this morning.
Claim: The VEC bullied her.
Truth: She and her cooker mates were filming in the VEC office, and building security asked her to leave.
She’s a serial pest, and along with Bernie Finn sits very high on my wishlist of never seeing/hearing/reading about again after 26 Nov.
Actively working on an anti-VEC narrative to try and claim the election is rigged?
South-West Coast is somewhat unique in the fact that the Liberal was elected off a low primary vote last time (32%!) and independent Carol Altmann’s job is to get the rest to coalesce around her rather than take votes off the incumbent. She is going to gobble up the ALP/GRN vote from last time, made easier by the fact that the ALP are running the worst possible candidate for the seat. In fact, I don’t know if Altmann would’ve run had the ALP chosen a different candidate. The rest of the vote was split between former upper house MP James Purcell, ex-Nat Michael Neoh, and the Country Party. This time there is no such split in the centre-right vote, so if the Liberal has another primary below or not far above 40% then Altmann will easily win. It’s a bit funny because she has extensive history of railing against this particular ALP candidate, Purcell, and Neoh and it is their votes that she needs to get over the line.
Jon Faine commenting on the prospect of Dan’s 3rd term becoming bogged down in an Upper House teeming with nut job micro parties, courtesy of preference whispering, enabled by group ticket voting. Unfortunately if that happens it will be self inflicted given that, unlike any other federal or state government , the Victorian government has chosen to keep GTV.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/will-dan-the-magician-and-his-bag-of-tricks-outsmart-the-minor-parties-20221021-p5brrx.html
Hawthorn should be a certainty for the libs. The very fact that it is not says a lot pesutto is a probable future leader so some libs may wish him to lose. The libs face a possible wipe out if Labor improved by 2 %.. the Nats will keep most of theirs. Of interest is the libs may only win 1 country seat if all goes bad for them
Morwell may be all over the place. How the preferences work out between the two independent councillors and the two coalition candidates will determine if they can reel in the ALP who should be leading on primaries.
John kennedy is currently a very productive representative for the seat of Hawthorn.
@Justin
I don’t know anything about Carol Altmann, other than when I was in Warrnambool and Port Fairy a month or so ago, I saw a LOT of yard signs for her, and none for anyone else.
It felt like being in Zoe Daniel territory back in April or so.
So…. the vibe says maybe!
If signage is the vibe James Newbury will bolt in Brighton.
More and more billboards pop up with his smiling physiognomy and in such prominent locations.
Even my local butcher (now ex) has a Newbury sign in his shopfront window.
Yuk
Kos Samaras twitterfeed
Worth a look.
Says Labor will lose seats in the upper house, but so will the libs.
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
The thing with signage is the location. In particular where the signs for independents are. If they are in areas that you know would be usually covered in liberal signs, it’s a very promising development for the independent. If it’s in the traditional left of centre area of town, that just means the non-liberal vote is coalescing.
Yeah, there’s a key difference –
The Altmann signs in Port Fairy were all on private houses.
Whereas the Newbury signs in and around Bayside are almost all on paid spots like phoneboxes etc, I don’t think I’ve seen any in people’s yards.
If Altmann has a lot of signs in Port Fairy that is a very very good sign for her, because that is James Purcell’s power base. He got 16% of the vote last time and isn’t running again. I believe his transfers were something close to 50-50 when transferring between the two majors.
Kevin Bonham’s Vic seat model is at:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/08/victorian-lower-house-2022-labor-well.html
So far around my area (St Kilda & Balaclava) you could barely tell there’s an election coming up.
I’m in the patch of Prahran district sandwiched between Albert Park and Caulfield and my observations so far for this pocket of each seat are…
Caulfield (Balaclava / St Kilda East):
I have seen Nomi posters on the window of just one vacant shopfront at Chapel & Carlisle, and a Southwick poster in a single phone booth, that is literally all.
Prahran (St Kilda):
A few Hibbins posters but nothing else at all, no Labor or Coalition.
Albert Park (St Kilda):
Nothing. Two phone booths have Labor posters but they are for the $250 energy rebate and still have Martin Foley’s name, nothing for Nina Taylor or any other party or candidate including the Greens.
Interestingly, the most common election related materials in the area are quite a lot of VEC posters targeting the homeless/transient population (“No fixed address? No ID? You can still vote”) plastered over a lot of walls in St Kilda, especially around Inkerman St.
It’s surprising because for MONTHS leading up to the federal election the area was absolutely covered in Steph Hodgins-May and Josh Burns posters. It tells me neither party are probably targeting either Prahran or Albert Park anywhere near as much as both the Greens and Labor were putting everything into Macnamara.
I haven’t seen a single Greens poster on the Albert Park side of St Kilda, or a single Labor poster on the Prahran side.
Expatsays:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 9:09 pm
Yeah, there’s a key difference –
The Altmann signs in Port Fairy were all on private houses.
Whereas the Newbury signs in and around Bayside are almost all on paid spots like phoneboxes etc, I don’t think I’ve seen any in people’s yards.
————————————–
Take another look.
There are literally many dozens of signs around Brighton alone and still popping up. And at least half are large billboards.
I have been told that many house yard signs are paid spots also.
A little over four weeks till the election and there is no Labor candidate for Narracan announced yet.
Seems rather odd with the ALP having promised to chip in for a new Hospital?
Is there a cunning plan in the offing perhaps?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/dutton-to-avoid-victoria-as-guy-and-colleagues-scrub-liberal-branding-20221024-p5bs95.html
Make of that what you will.
MABWM @ #191 Monday, October 24th, 2022 – 8:52 pm
I can feel the luv.
It was one thing for a few MPs like Katie Allen to scrub the Liberal branding back in May to distance herself from Scott Morrison, but for the actual *leader* of the party to distance himself from the branding of the party his leads, well that’s another level altogether!
Yes I don’t think they quite get it that it’s not the federal branch who is on the nose(yes I know they are) it’s actually the Victorian branch which stinks like a very dead lobster and now they resort to subterfuge to make a stand.
Bloody hell what do these people really stand for.
Have your cake and eat it too?
Two Liberal candidates to keep council positions during campaign
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/two-liberal-candidates-to-keep-council-positions-during-campaign-20221024-p5bs91.html
Dr John says:
Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 3:30 pm
If signage is the vibe James Newbury will bolt in Brighton.
—
I had to laugh at this comment.
If signage was the vibe, Frydenberg would have been reelected with >75% of the primary vote.
You can also interpret a lot of signage – especially paid signage – to be an indication that they are in trouble rather than an indication of support.
Meanwhile, for a guy who’s apparently so loathed he’s going to bag the Liberals a few outer suburban seats, I can’t get away from the Andrews ads on commercial TV and YouTube.
So far I think I’ve seen 10 Labor ads for every 1 Liberal ad on TV.
It definitely highlights the Liberals’ lack of funding & resources I think, they will no doubt ramp it up closer to early voting opening but probably have to be a lot more stringent in how they target their spending.
I’ve actually seen more Greens ads (not on TV but online) than I have Liberal, although that’s probably just geographic targeting based on the electorate I reside in and not actually a broader reflection of the Greens out-advertising the Liberals.
Nothing to see here…Really!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-27/liberal-party-donation-site-vec-investigation/101586700