Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.
A Bludger was asking about the B R-S case the other day.
1. Besanko is thinking about it.
2. There is a new series of podcasts on the topic:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2022/oct/12/ben-roberts-smith-v-the-media-introducing-new-podcast-series-from-guardian-australia-video
When I find out who is running our climate I am going to put in a complaint.
Effin water generated potholes everywhere.
My mental pothole map of our fair city needs constant updating.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 11:14 am
Thank dog that America is such a shinning light on the hill. No compromised to its core …
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/enough-is-enough-after-humiliating-opec-oil-cuts-us-re-evaluates-relationship-with-saudi-arabia-20221012-p5bp16.html‘
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This one has been coming for decades. China would be more than pleased to jump in and fill any security void.
Snappy Tom @ #89 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 10:52 am
How about Pushme Pullyu Journalism? Comes with its own mascot 🙂
Old Hat, you beat me to it.
I am disappointed in the Greens, that they cannot manage an enthusiastic “Yes” in support of the VTP. Merely not standing in the way is a cop out. This stuff is important. This is their job.
And strategically, politically, if the referendum succeeds the Greens will gain no credit. And if it fails, they will suffer for not helping it win. Have they backed themselves into a tar pit?
A political career that may go from being dead, buried and cremated to reconstitution:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/12/mahathir-mohamad-97-year-old-malaysian-former-leader-to-run-for-parliament
Steve777 @ #82 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 9:43 am
Funny how voting for a policy that you don’t want leaves you stuck with a policy that you don’t want. Or not funny. The other thing. Predictable.
So what if they did? The proper thing to do was call their bluff on that, since they lacked the numbers to pass the legislation singlehandedly.
Either the Coalition backs down and separates out 1 and 2, or the Coalition gets to wear the fact that low and average earners don’t get a tax cut purely due to their own obstinance. They were the government. Whatever happened was on them. The Opposition’s job is to oppose.
Labor played the issue extremely poorly from the start, and is now reaping the all too obvious rewards of that performance. That’s all. Take it as a learning experience, move on, and remember not to vote for things that you actually oppose in the future. 😐
Snappy Tom
Are you in a Labor- or LNP-held electorate?
———-
Good question! It used to be strong Country Party now Labor! I’ve thought that that was likely to be a factor.
It is sad if our governing parties are so morally corrupt.
Though to be honest i think the local government is also less than competent. Partly due to out sourcing, probably even their ability to know what day it is.
BK/Cat
“After eight years of Andrews, are Victorians sick of the bloke?”, asks Shaun Carney.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/after-eight-years-of-andrews-are-victorians-sick-of-the-bloke-20221011-p5boxm.html
Shouldn’t the question be:
“After 16 years of Guy in parliament, including two terms as Liberal Party leader during which the Liberal vote fell, are Victorians sick of the bloke?”, asks Socrates.”
Thinking that pre-sensible government, the MSM (including the lamentable ABC) became addicted to the type of confrontational politics that started with Toned Abs and in order to get their ‘fix’ these days, having a competent, intelligent and boring Labor minister on to speak (harangue ) is not going to cut it.
A Sussssan, Anus Taylor, Spudmeister or what ever will at least create some ‘clicks or views’.
Sad really.
Andrew_Earlwood at 11:14 am
Mass head chopping in KSA ? No wuckas. Funding and spreading Wahhabi fundy lunacy ? No wuckas.Treat women like second class citizens ? No biggie. Cause “muh gas price” to go up . “To the barricades !! “.
As for the ‘re-evaluate’ their relationship with the KSA. Perhaps they could get rid of the petrodollar arrangement ? That’ll learn them Ay-rabs 🙂
Socrates @ #32 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 11:28 am
So you’d think. But Matt(hew) Guy reminds me of a fungus my father-in-law picked up in PNG during WW2. He tried every cream under the sun to get rid of it but it kept persisting. 😀
Rakali @ Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 10:40 am:
——————————
I bet it cost Ukraine less to fix that intersection than it cost Russia to manufacture and launch the missile. Then again, thinking about how many people were caught up in that strike and all the others like it makes you weep. Putin’s Russia is lashing out spitefully at a smaller neighbour that’s never done them any wrong. It is time to consign it to the rubbish bin of history.
a r,
People who voted for Labor and helped them win actually like the Stage 3 tax cuts. Among other policies of theirs this year. YOU may not like that and think the Stage 3 tax cuts should be repealed but it appears to not be the opinion of the majority of the electorate. Anyway, you can always vote for The Greens next time if it’s bothering you so much. Or again. Whatever.
“After eight years of Carney, are Victorians sick of the bloke?”, asks Dan Andrews.”
“Steve777 says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 9:27 am
…I grew up in a country where people like me can do well, a country shaped by the sort of principles Labor strives for, even if, regrettably, they were mostly out of office (but Menzies / Pig Iron Bob stole their best policies)”
Thanks for your post Steve. That point about Menzies is interesting. Although Menzies was a Liberal and Conservative, he lived during the so called Keynesian phase of the evolution of Capitalism, and he therefore introduced what almost everybody else in the Capitalist world was introducing at the time and that’s Keynesian, Mixed-economy policies. That’s why, 60 years later, Menzies surprises us as he looks almost Social Democratic. He wasn’t an ideological Social Democrat, but he followed the prevailing paradigm of his time.
What would Menzies think about todays’ Liberal party?
Belated thanks BK (a bit under the weather today).
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:24 am
The internet is forever, ‘fess.
Though it looks like Lidia Thorpe has been pulled into line by The Greens’ leadership according to a statement she released yesterday.
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I’ll keep my fingers crossed C@T but given her record, I feel like I’ll need further proof of Thorpe’s change of heart on this matter. Seeking Hanson’s assistance to stop Constitutional change is a further blow to her credibility.
Ven @ #69 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 9:56 am
Of course, Chris Richardson does. He doesn’t have to be re-elected. It won’t be his broken promise to have to explain to the electorate. Plus, he’s made a career out of criticising Labor’s economic policies. Chris Richardson, hmm, I wonder whether he criticised the Stage 3 tax cuts when they were going through parliament under the Coalition? I’d put money on the answer being, ‘no’.
“a r says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 11:26 am
Steve777 @ #82 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 9:43 am
Labor is not “confused” about Stage 3. It doesn’t want it but the political environment makes it near impossible to drop or seriously modify them at this time.
Funny how voting for a policy that you don’t want leaves you stuck with a policy that you don’t want. Or not funny. The other thing. Predictable.”
In this case, the policy that Labor don’t want (Stage-3 tax cuts) will be in place for 1 year only. After that we will have a new federal election… and new policies.
It’s simple, it’s not complicated….
Cronus @ #40 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 11:40 am
Look, I’m a generous soul, or is that entirely cynical, or both? 😀 But I believe that, behind the scenes, Greens HQ has been inundated with angry Greens supporters phoning them to tell them how disgusted they are with the party making common cause with Mundine and Hanson and if they don’t pull young Lidia into line and support the ‘Yes’ campaign then their vote will go elsewhere at the next election.
We just have to wait and see what happens I guess.
In a repudiation of Bandt’s approach, S H-Y has finally and publicly broken ranks with her Aboriginal Affairs and Aboriginal Health spokesperson.
S H-Y WILL support the Yes case for the referendum.
Macarthur says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 11:36 am
Rakali @ Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 10:40 am:
——————————
I bet it cost Ukraine less to fix that intersection than it cost Russia to manufacture and launch the missile.
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I saw a quote from Forbes Magazine that the one day alone of missile launches on the 10th of October would have cost Russia somewhere between $US 400 to $700 million (with no military value).
Andrew_Earlwood @ #35 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 8:28 am
Yes and that’s why I never criticised her for it. It’s all about the context. I did say though, that the internet is forever. Not a criticism, just some sage advice for young Lidia. 🙂
Head of the GCSE (MI6?) in England gave a speech yesterday where he said that he thought Russia was running low on missiles and ammunition.
Plus it’s been reported that due to the sanctions Russia is having a hard time getting components to make new guided missiles.
Musk denied having talked to the Russian leader before floating his ideas.
“I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space,” he said on Twitter.
After Bremmer publicly stood by his account, Musk tweeted: “Nobody should trust Bremmer.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/11/elon-musk-denies-report-he-spoke-to-putin-about-use-of-nuclear-weapons
Musk may have fooled the stock market with his bullshit but on every other issue he has been proved wrong. A bigger narcissist than Trump if that’s possible
Thanks BW. From the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/oct/12/australia-news-live-updates-bali-bombings-anthony-albanese-terror-attacks-nato-ukraine-indigenous-voice-politics-economy-recession-budget
“As Lidia Thorpe has said, she’s not backing the no campaign, and I am looking very much forward to supporting the yes campaign.” — Sarah Hanson-Young, October 12, 2022
I’m not sure this clears it up.
* Does Thorpe or Hanson-Young speak for the Greens on First Nations issues?
* On VTP are the Green’s for YES or meh?
* Thorpe would appear to have been sidelined. Does she still have a future with the Greens?
C@tmomma at 12:06 pm
Barely a week has gone by since February without that claim being aired. Have a read of this article from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and its assessment of Russian and US/Nato inventory/production. RUSI was founded by THE Duke of Wellington so don’t see RUSI and see Russian 🙂
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Two Greens Clans:
1. The Not the Noes
2. The Yes the Yesses.
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:57 am
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:04 am
Good morning Bludgers!
I was hoping we’d get a new thread for the Resolve poll. And here it is.
_____________________
How’s the sculpting going. Finished anything yet ?
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
p
Hard to verify and probably contextual, noting that latter has to fill in the rationality gaps on everything from racial insults, gender insults and the Russian stockpile of missiles.
The problem seems to me that there is a continuum between zip and infinity.
If the Russians had an infinite supply of high precision long- and short-range missiles, these would be raining down in the gezillions every day.
Clearly, this is not the case.
Equally clearly, whenever they want to kill some civilians and trash some blocks of flats, they can.
There is also the issue of domains.
As long as Ukraine can contest the air, it an be argued that the Russians do not have enough AA missiles.
I readily confessing to finding all the offerings from experts to amateurs in this space to be confusing.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 11:37 am
What bullshit!
Some people might have voted for Labor who otherwise would have voted for the Coalition because of Labor’s promise, but to suggest that Labor, or Labor voters in general support S3 is risible.
The promise was about not wanting to alienate swinging voters by giving them a reason not to vote for Labor. These voters and the 5% or so that, since the election, say they now support the Government are the reason S3 promise is such an important issue for Labor.
These are the people who decide whether Labor holds Government or not.
Mark Latham’s plan to expand the One Nation team in NSW’s upper house by quitting and recontesting his spot is “devilishly clever” and probably permissible, a prominent barrister says.
Latham outlined his plan in The Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday: to quit, fill the casual vacancy with another One Nation candidate, and then stand in the March election at the top of the ticket, increasing the party’s seats in state Parliament. He has sought advice from Parliament about whether it would be allowed.
Latham has one other One Nation colleague in the NSW Parliament, Rod Roberts, who also sits in the upper house. Both were elected in 2019 to eight-year terms.
Geoffrey Watson SC, a former counsel assisting the ICAC and a prominent integrity advocate, said: “I notice that Latham has said he wishes to take legal advice on it. My preliminary view is that it’s probably permissible. But it does involve a rather cynical manipulation of electoral laws.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/10/12/mark-lathams-devilishly-clever-plan-expand-one-nation/
nath@8.50
“the louder he talked of his honour, the quicker we counted the spoons.”
Very quaintly, woke, green use of these words!
How dare the peasants have opinions.
And exactly why the Greens will be without silverware as the Teals accumulate the entire contents.
OK, now I am totally confused. Just reading in Guardian Aus that Clive Palmer and the United Australia Party are standing a candidate in the upcoming Victorian election.
Correct me if I am wrong (it wouldn’t be the first time, lol) but didn’t Palmer recently de-register the United Australia Party with the AEC?
If so, how can he stand a candidate under that party name – or does Palmer get special exemptions from the rules everyone else has to follow?
poroti,
The author of that article seems to be making a lot of heroic assumptions about the inabilities of the Americans and the abilities of the Russians wrt armament production. He states that the Russians can and are quickly upgrading their capabilities to produce greater numbers of smart and dumb missiles, evidenced by the fact that 500 new jobs are being offered by one of the manufacturers, but he does not factor into the equation that the Russian mobilisation will be depleting that potential workforce, not to mention the number of men who have fled the country that could have been employed there also. So will Russia so easily be able to step up production? I wouldn’t be saying it for sure. He also gives no credence to the fact that America may just be scaling up as well.
He also points to a common furphy. That China has a ‘near monopoly on Rare Earth materials’. As someone from WA, who I think from memory works in mining assay, you would be well aware of the Rare Earth mining that goes on in WA, how it’s being ramped up, and how Australia will have no hesitation in supplying Rare Earths to America. In fact, it’s a part of the CHIPS Act in America that they will source their rare Earths from anywhere else but China and currently there is a lot of exploration going on to find Rare Earths elsewhere than China. Not to mention Chile is another source for them.
So, all up a kind of informative article. Thanks for posting it. 🙂
Ridgiesrule
I found this media release on the website
The United Australia Party has been officially registered by the Victorian Electoral Commission and will be contesting all Upper House regions in the upcoming Victorian election.
“The United Australia Party is looking forward to contesting the Victorian State election with a team of excellent candidates,” said Party Chair Clive Palmer.
“We are concentrating fully on gaining the balance of power in the next Victorian Parliament with our very strong Upper House ticket.”
Mr Palmer said the United Australia Party would field two candidates for each of the Upper House electoral regions to deliver the freedoms and economic certainty that Victoria so desperately needed.
United Australia Party Federal Senator for Victoria, Senator Ralph Babet, made a short statement in parliament this week, highlighting the need for change in his home state. You can watch the clip HERE
Ridgiesrule @ #133 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
I think they are using the Palmer United name. That candidate will not be overly popular
Some people might have voted for Labor who otherwise would have voted for the Coalition because of Labor’s promise, but to suggest that Labor, or Labor voters in general support S3 is risible.
Maybe because I wasn’t suggesting that, Barney. I was suggesting the swinging voters and those who John Black has identified that came over to Labor and helped Labor win seats they otherwise would not have, are the ones who see advantage for themselves in the Stage 3 tax cuts. It’s not every Labor voter and I never said that.
Btw, isn’t someone who voted for Labor, a …. Labor voter?
Boerwar at 12:29 pm
With actual facts so thin on the ground it is punditry paradise.
Take this from the NYT regarding the low number of civilian deaths from the large scale rocket attack. You could argue that was because they weren’t actually targeting civilians or you could argue they were targeting civilians but…….
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/russia-missiles-weapons-stockpile.html
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/12/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-30-greens-12-open-thread/comment-page-3/#comment-3992307
GCSE, school exams, you mean equivalent of ASD/ GCHQ, signals intel etc, cyber?
Them folks that with the Poles broke the Enigma of WW2.
Ha there been any research on how many people actually voted for Labor because of the S3 stuff ? I reckon that issue would be waaaaay down the list compared to the long list of Morrison government atrocities of governance and , well, Morrison himself.
C@tmomma @ #114 Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 10:37 am
The most recent credible polling I’ve see on that has support for repeal leading 41% to 22%. So…I guess I’ll pay that on the technicality that 41% isn’t a strict majority. Though neither is 22%, and I know which number is more likely to become a majority when the remaining 37% break.
Though seriously, 37% undecided on whether the highest earners should get a tax cut? Wtf???
Yeah, yeah, same vote as always. Sex/reason, [other left-wing minor parties], [non-crazy indies], Greens, Labor, [crazy, non-racist indies], Coalition, [PHON/PUP/racists]. 🙂
Thanks Victoria and Laughtong.
I wonder why he bothers. I mean he spent around $200 million over the last two federal elections for a total of 1 senator representing his party.
I also wonder whether he is able to claim the $200 million spent on elections as a tax deduction through his companies – that is the only thing that would make sense.
Hopefully Victorians will be smart enough to give him the flick this time.
“That candidate will not be overly popular”
Quite.
Victorian election 2014: Geoff Shaw fires parting shot after losing Frankston
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-30/geoff-shaw-fires-parting-shot-after-losing-frankston/5928560
Ridgiesrule,
Clive Palmer knows that Victoria was the only state to elect one of his Senators to federal parliament in May, that the Freedumb Movement is concentrated in that state, and that Victoria is the only state to still have Group Voting tickets for the Upper House that Preference Whisperers can manipulate. So Palmer has probably calculated he’s in with a chance. Glenn Druery is probably on the Palmer payroll.
Ridgiesrule says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 12:44 pm
OK, now I am totally confused. Just reading in Guardian Aus that Clive Palmer and the United Australia Party are standing a candidate in the upcoming Victorian election.
Correct me if I am wrong (it wouldn’t be the first time, lol) but didn’t Palmer recently de-register the United Australia Party with the AEC?
If so, how can he stand a candidate under that party name – or does Palmer get special exemptions from the rules everyone else has to follow?
*************
Australia is a Federation.
Victoria ( and other states) and Australia have parallel but separate electoral systems.
Registration or Deregistration with the AEC has no impact on party registrations under state electoral acts.
I’ve see on that has support for repeal leading 41% to 22%. So…I guess I’ll pay that on the technicality that 41% isn’t a majority. Though neither is 22%, and I know which number is more likely to become a majority when the remaining 37% break.
Though seriously, 37% undecided on whether the highest earners should get a tax cut? Wtf???
I’d be likely to back the horse called ‘Self Interest’ for at least the majority of that remaining 37%. 🙂
Uncomfortable viewing for many here.
https://www.doubledown.news/watch/2022/october/10/jeremy-corbyn-demolishes-the-establishment
a r at 12.57
…Though seriously, 37% undecided on whether the highest earners should get a tax cut? Wtf???…
____________
Exactly. 41% oppose S3, 22% support, 37% undecided.
Given that S3 has already been legislated, 41% is no mandate for change. Add 37% ‘undecided’ and you have a well-laid Coalition political land mine. I also take 41% with a grain of salt – polling absent a concerted LABOR LIES campaign.
This policy area does not say many good things about our politics or community attitudes.
Ask most workers if they want a tax cut. I very much doubt many would say no.