Newspoll may be spinning on its wheels, but the Age/Herald has come through with the third Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention since the election, three weeks after the last. This one has Labor on 39% (steady), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 12% (up two), One Nation on 5% (down one), the United Australia Party on 3% (up one) and independents on 9% (up one). Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish its own two-party numbers, but a fun new tool from Armarium Interreta allows you to punch in primary vote numbers and get a two-party result based on preference flows from the May election, which suggests a Labor lead of about 58-42.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is 60% (steady) compared with 25% for poor and very poor (up one), and he leads 53-18 on preferred prime minister (53-19 last time). Peter Dutton has a positive rating of 30% (up two) and a negative rating of 41% (up one). The poll also had questions on the budget and tax, the most interesting of which finds 34% supporting and 13% opposing the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with fully 53% “undecided/neutral”, and on the Optus security breach. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.
” S777
I am proud to be a voter who votes against my personal economic interests and for the common weal.”
So am I.
That being said, I am not under economic pressure with mortgages, cost of raising a family, etc etc.
Yet there are many who manage it well. Thorpe’s problem is one that afflicts activists across all issues: an attitude of My Way or the Highway.
beguiledagain says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 8:42 am
Here is the wonderful lady in one of her first screen roles: Isobel Vane in “The Portrait of Dorian Gray.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OVMK8XNd44
—————————————————————–
My correction edit didn’t go through. It was Oscar Wilde’s “The Picture of Dorian Gray.”
Wasn’t there a Malcolm Turnbull connection?
Thank you BK
” the louder he talked of his honour, the quicker we counted the spoons.”
I lock up my spoons when people loudly proclaim their patriotism
This is not my day. It was Sibyl Vane.
S777 says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 8:52 am
” S777
I am proud to be a voter who votes against my personal economic interests and for the common weal.”
So am I.
__________________________________
I think the same people post variations of this several times a year. Just to remind us that they vote Labor, not out of economic need, in fact they are wealthy people. And not only wealthy, they are honorable people too. In fact, a superior kind of person really.
“Wasn’t there a Malcolm Turnbull connection?”
Please note that while Thorpe has apparently been called to order yesterday, the statement does NOT say that Thorpe will support the YES campaign.
It states that she will be “not be campaigning No”.
There are other ways that Thorpe can act as a spoiler than be party to the official No campaign. See recent comments by Thorpe for starters.
Good luck Bandt!
It would be disappointing if Mr Turnbull was not interviewed on some ABC program today about his deep connection to Dame Angela Lansbury.
John Black has a habit of erecting a huge edifice on a few handfuls of sand.
He is a joke amongst those who actually know stuff about electoral statistics
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/11/lidia-thorpe-says-she-will-not-be-campaigning-no-against-indigenous-voice-to-parliament
The arrogance is astounding. First Bob Brown set back climate action for over a decade now we have this.
Lol shellbell
Why do I vote Labor? Or vote tactically to help Labor? Why does anyone vote the way they do?
It’s complex. In my case:
My father voted Labor. Lots of people vote the way their parents do / did
I grew up in modest circumstances in a hard-working Catholic working class family
I grew up in a country where people like me can do well, a country shaped by the sort of principles Labor strives for, even if, regrettably, they were mostly out of office (but Menzies / Pig Iron Bob stole their best policies)
It’s been a long time since I had much personal stake in the outcome of any election but younger members of my family do
I don’t care much about money. I’m comfortable, I’m in reasonable health for my age. I don’t need tax cuts or franking credits. I will be needing Medicare.
Labor makes Australia more of the sort of country I want to live in. The Liberals make me ashamed of my country at times
Anyway, I make no claims to virtue. Others can judge if they could be bothered.
“There are other ways that Thorpe can act as a spoiler than be party to the official No campaign. See recent comments by Thorpe for starters.”
Yup, but does seem that she has been pushed to moderate and not use her position to blow things up. Comments i have read around the place indicate that the Greens membership are fully behind the Uluru statement. The voice, treaty, truth VS truth, treaty, voice argument is being had, but i suspect she is getting practical feedback on how things work in the “Colonial Project” to indicate that putting a Voice to referendum and getting THAT embedded in the Constitution is the best first step.
Does piss me off a bit that people decry the Voice on the basis that “no-one”knows what it is and will be. Well…….how much does anyone know about what Treaty actually means in terms of a “settlement”??? Much easier to run NO campaigns on the speculation and uncertainty around that than Voice think I.
I dont think we have heard the last of Thorpe. She strikes me as the kind of person who has difficulty keeping her foot out of her mouth and is VERY wedded to the “look at me” stuff. 🙁
Reflecting in the comments posted upthread regarding the cookers pronouncements that everyone who got covid vax was going to croak it on 10th october.
The cognitive dissonance with these people continue to astound me.
The other day, my OH caught up with a friend, who is closely connected to one of his siblings.
He is in his early fifties.
I may have mentioned this person during the height of covid etc.
He had formed conspiratorial views on the pandemic and did not get vaxxed at the height of covid when the vax was being rolled out.
He contracted covid.
He ended up in ICU and was close to death, but somehow his life was saved. He was in ICU for 9 days and in hospital for another 9 weeks.
He susbsequently required rehab and even now cannot dress himself.
He eventually got his first covid vax as medicos advised that he was very vulnerable and likely to get it again and best to develop immunity to mutating variants.
He did so, and was quite unwell for three days but all good thereafter.
Here is the kicker. He still believes it was a plandemic and he doesnt believe in the vax at all, because he knows all these people who have had it and suffered strokes etc.
My OH could only respond to him in this way.
Wtte. You have suffered enough and continue to suffer. But mate you are deluded. Take care of yourself.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:07 am
sprocket_,
Can you put the John Black research back up here? Thanks.
And I can guarantee you it’s on the top of the pile of ‘clippings’ for the government to read today.
I reckon they dodged a bullet by not listening to the Break Your Promise Banshees.
”
Remember I kept mentioning seats like Bennelong, Higgins and Tagney, which ALP won to win the majority in parliament. And high income earners live in these electorates. Also, I mentioned tradie seats like Lindsay and Hughes and religious seats like Banks, which LNP won.
After what happened in last 9 years especially in last 3 years, LNP PV was still 3 % points above ALP at the election and ALP won the election by about 1000 votes out of about 15.5 million votes.
Would you believe that ALP got 0.76 % less PV than unloseble 2029 election?
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:10 am
Morning all. With the Liberal vote down 2% in the Resolve poll it is going to be a real challenge for the Murdoch press to spin the result. I’ll have a go:
“Labor continues to deceive voters as massive debt remains unpaid”, reports the Daily Rupert.
With Dutton’s popularity down from 19% to 18% it looks like his honeymoon period is over
”
Good one Socrates. 🙂
But the thought of him still gives me cold sweat. Morrison maybe menacing wall paper but Dutton is menacing presence. I must say Cronus lives tough neighborhood.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:18 am
Evan @ #NaN Wednesday, October 12th, 2022 – 7:10 am
Good morning Bludgers, another poll Rex will not be happy with. Yes, despite most of the media trying to prop up Dutton including Andrew Probyn on the ABC, the Albanese Government maintains its big lead.
Yep, the Baying Banshees of Break Your Promise Labor! will not be happy.
”
C@tmomma
Another Baying Banshees of Break Your Promise Labor. 🙂
Chris Richardson hopes budget night will be filled with broken promises.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-hope-budget-night-will-be-filled-with-broken-promises-20221010-p5bon2.html
”
The dilemma over stage e tax cuts is entirely of Labor’s creation. Its flirtation over the past week with amending the tax cuts and breaking its election promise only exposes the depth of Labor’s confusion. Labor cannot take political ownership of the tax cuts but cannot amend the tax cuts in its first budget. This is Labor’s self-created absurdity, says Paul Kelly.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/imperative-for-tax-reform-is-here-will-pm-meet-it/news-story/1e013e881d73cd32771d0f6278fb8be8
”
WTH!!!
Paul Kelly is in the realm of pure gibberish.
#weatheronPB
A thick grey bottomed flotilla,
heavy, jostling, and still disordered,
floats in the cool air.
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:21 am
So Thorpe has tried to torpedo the Voice before. By appealing to Pauline Hanson FFS!
Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe has declared “I will not be campaigning No” in the upcoming referendum over constitutional recognition and a Voice to Parliament for Indigenous Australians.
And The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age can reveal Thorpe tweeted Senator Pauline Hanson asking for help to stop constitutional change in March 2017, three years before the Victorian senator entered federal parliament.
The tweet from Thorpe, sent from the now-suspended @lidia_thorpe Twitter account, said: “Pauline help us stop the constitution changes. Aboriginal people say no to constitutional change.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-will-not-be-campaigning-no-thorpe-rejects-campaign-against-the-voice-20221011-p5bove.html
”
Thorpe doesn’t have any integrity. She wanted to Stop constitutional changes regarding Aboriginal people in 2017.
Then a month ago she said ‘Voice’ referendum is “waste of money”.
Now she says she will not campaign for ‘No’ vote.
Based on above statements it is very hard for me to believe that she is favour of ‘Yes’ vote for ‘Voice’ referendum.
”
Player Onesays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 7:27 am
That John Black article is hilarious …
The Australian census figures for total incomes differ from the taxable income figures supplied by the Australian Tax Office, but we’ve been modelling the political behaviour of both measures for about 50 years, and we’re comfortable with broad comparisons after we delete from the census those persons on negligible incomes (who tend to be older students living at home in well-to-do families) and the not-stated group, which tends to be a little out of the mainstream taxed economy, to put it politely.
In other words, they cherry-picked the data, not just carefully selecting the source, but also then deleting those bits that didn’t support the conclusion they wanted.
No wonder C@t approves
”
Are you rejecting it because it doesn’t support the conclusion you wanted? 🙂
”
simm0888says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 8:22 am
@Aaron that’s if anything that Spud has done or said so far could pass as strategy. They are just shooting from the hip cluelessly without aim.
”
simmo888
Or
They maybe shooting in the Breeze. 🙂
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 8:28 am
@fess and C@t:
As fun as it is to take a ticket and line up to give Lydia Thorpe a whack, doesn’t that 2017 tweet to Hanson relate to the idea the Turnbull Liberals were running up the flagpole at the time of taking the Statement from the Heart and watering it down to insert some vanilla, bland and meaningless motherhood statement in the preamble to the Constitution?
”
A-E
If so, then she did not learn anything new in the last 5 years since regurgitates her old talking points. That is even worse because she is stuck in past for a politician, who says that she wants the country to move forward on Aboriginal matters.
Vensays:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 9:59 am
WTH!!!
Paul Kelly is in the realm of pure gibberish.
Truthfully, he’s not made a relevant contribution to political commentary in this country in nearly 40 years. ‘The end of certainty’ was a reasonable read that borrowed heavily from others, but really he’s not offered anything comparable since.
From the Paul Kelly article:
“Its flirtation over the past week with amending the tax cuts and breaking its election promise only exposes the depth of Labor’s confusion. ”
There was no flirting. It was a full-on attempt at a gang-bang from left and right of Labor, which was walking down the street minding its own business, which is sane government of Australia. Albanese and Labor not only got out of it this time, but with the experience to deal with these predators again when they come back for another shot.
And on a real world thing that is unequivocally good………DART WORKED!!!!!!!!
Saw on ABC24 this morning that observations have shown that it changed the timing of Dimorphos’s orbit by 32 minutes. 🙂 That’s serious movement, and a bit of a “Not Be Dead through Science” moment i think. 🙂
Just as background to the ongoing Tax Wars, here is a summary of the previous Government’s tax modifications* in one place – Stage 1/2/3, 2019-2025 – https://www.superguide.com.au/how-super-works/income-tax-cuts
(“LMITO” = “Lower and Middle Income Tax Offset”).
* modifications, not “relief”. That is right-wing framing, “relieving” taxpayers of part of their “tax burden”.
Luckily for the people of Kyiv they’re not in NSW! One day to do road repairs!
Here in northern NSW our direct access road (20 mins) to town was closed 9 months ago due to a land slip caused by last January’s rains.
As yet no work has started on it at all. The alternative route to town is stressful, circuitous and 40 minutes.
Imagine the disaster for Ukrainians if they were run by the LNP.
The vic state libs. Sheesh.
—
Georgie Crozier admits postal vote applications were sent out on her behalf.
Says it’s a matter for the Liberal Party’s secretariat. She also named David Davis.
Labor is not “confused” about Stage 3. It doesn’t want it but the political environment makes it near impossible to drop or seriously modify them at this time. And remember that the previous Government effectively held tax reductions for low and average income earners (Stage 1/2) hostage to getting Stage 3 passed.
imacca
Indeed. Amazing!
Boerwar yesterday: Only 12% of people voted for the Greens and therefore 88% of people support the tax cuts for the rich.
Actual data today: Yeah, it’s not 88% it’s 13%.
Gotta hate it when pesky facts get in the way. Turns out voting for a party doesn’t mean you have to agree with 100% of their policy platform.
Thorpe is saying she will not oppose the Voice proposal. She has not said she will campaign for it. So she has nothing to say. That is quite remarkable: an indigenous Senator – someone who makes much of that heritage – has nothing to say on the most significant aboriginal rights proposal to be put forward since 1967.
She is IN the Parliament and yet has chosen broadcast silence on the matter of a Voice TO the Parliament. The irony is obvious to any observer. She has found it necessary to gag herself. Hopefully she will learn something from this.
How quickly Kelly has forgotten the 9 years of utter policy shambles of the Liberal National chook raffle “coalition”.
“Labor is not “confused” about Stage 3. It doesn’t want it but the political environment makes it near impossible to drop or seriously modify them at this time. And remember that the previous Government effectively held tax reductions for low and average income earners (Stage 1/2) hostage to getting Stage 3 passed.”
Steve777…..i would agree on the “impossible to drop” but not so much on the “seriously modify”. That said it has to be acknowledged that we have a budget this month and then another in May 23. Whatever happens with the s3 cuts (and yes, the fwarking tories DID, in-disputably hold the lower paid hostage for them) the “debate” is not going to go away until after the May 23 budget.
“She is IN the Parliament and yet has chosen broadcast silence on the matter of a Voice TO the Parliament. ”
I dont think she wants a Voice to Parliament, because SHE wants to be the voice to Parliament. On her own, not one of many.
Belated thanks BK.
“After eight years of Andrews, are Victorians sick of the bloke?”, asks Shaun Carney.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/after-eight-years-of-andrews-are-victorians-sick-of-the-bloke-20221011-p5boxm.html
____________
The answer, my poor Shaun, would appear to be, “No!”
The question for you, my poor Shaun, is, “Do you enjoy engaging in Push Journalism*?”
*I just invented this term. I like it! Summarises years of mainstream media boosting of the Coalition/denigration of Labor (see Paul Kelly’s piece of sh1t today.)
The Lying Reactionaries have been abandoned by many of their truest believers. Some have aligned themselves with alt-Lib/Teal candidates. Others have fled to Labor. This re-alignment of support is new, and could still be unwound. Labor should do what they can to have their new support re-affirmed. There are ways of favouring the least-well-off that do not involve re-imposing higher taxes on the relatively better-off. Labor should think very long and hard before breaking their word to those first-time Labor voters who have detached themselves from the Lying Reactionaries.
Rakali, noticed two cars pulled over the other night in Canberra after they had hit a pothole on the road and yesterday a news item about another hole (also in ACT) that had claimed a few bent wheel rims etc.
My take is that lots of drivers these days are not good at avoiding obstacles in general, largely because they aren’t looking at that bit of the road that will most immediately affect their vehicle…glancing at phones, passengers, rubber-necking etc?
If Stage 3 ends up standing in its current form, Labor would be “supporting” it for the same reason that the Coalition “support” Medicare.
rakali
Climate change (like war) generates new queues including for:
1. taxpayers to fund house abandonment and shifts to high ground
2. taxpayers to fund foreshore ‘stabilization’
3. taxpayers to fund emergency responses – SES, ADF, firies, police, paramedics, hospital emergency departments
4. taxpayers to fund rebuilding of houses following fires
5. taxpayers to fund repair or rebuilding of critical infrastructure (roads, power, sewage, bridges, rail).
6. taxpayers to fund emergency food supplies
7. taxpayers to fund emergency shelters
Why the queues? Because as climate generates ever greater destruction new queues will form and existing queues will, inexorably, lengthen.
One point at which war and climate change converge is market failure in the private insurance space.
I was thinking this morning that the J6C had abandoned any further hearings. They’re coming close to the end of their tenure(?) which means they need to wrap up, and they missed the hearing when Hurricane Ian plowed up Florida. But it seems there’s a hearing scheduled for Thursday 2022-10-13 13:00 (US East Coast), which I think would be Friday 2022-10-14 03:00, Brisbane time. (ouch)
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 10:48 am
Boerwar yesterday: Only 12% of people voted for the Greens and therefore 88% of people support the tax cuts for the rich.
Actual data today: Yeah, it’s not 88% it’s 13%.
Gotta hate it when pesky facts get in the way. Turns out voting for a party doesn’t mean you have to agree with 100% of their policy platform.’
————————————–
Had increasing taxes and getting rid of S3 taxes been a priority for Australian voters they would have voted for the Greens.
Greens House vote = 12. 25%
Greens Senate vote = 12.66%
The pesky fact is that the Greens who supported big increases in taxes as well as getting rid of S3 failed miserably.
Being the Greens their 2022 election result was naturally hailed as a triumph.
Boerwar at 10:58 am
Never mind that, think of the boost to GDP. There’ll be an almost constant house building boom due to all the rebuilding required. Then there will be all the career and employment opportunities managing disaster recovery. Another bonus will be how much of our infrastructure will be new. Such a glorious future awaits us all.
p
Always look on the bright side of life?
Thank dog that America is such a shinning light on the hill. No compromised to its core …
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/enough-is-enough-after-humiliating-opec-oil-cuts-us-re-evaluates-relationship-with-saudi-arabia-20221012-p5bp16.html
Late Riser
There will be several live YouTube feeds that you can skip through to find the beginning of hearing,
Rakali says:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 10:40 am
Luckily for the people of Kyiv they’re not in NSW! One day to do road repairs!
Here in northern NSW our direct access road (20 mins) to town was closed 9 months ago due to a land slip caused by last January’s rains.
As yet no work has started on it at all. The alternative route to town is stressful, circuitous and 40 minutes.
Imagine the disaster for Ukrainians if they were run by the LNP.
____________
Are you in a Labor- or LNP-held electorate?