The Australia Institute has a poll out which offers the interesting finding that 41% favour the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with only 22% on board and the remainder unsure. Forty-six per cent understood the cuts to most favour high income earners, compared with 18% for middle income earners and 8% for low income earners. Asked whether “adapting economic policy to suit the changing circumstances even if that means breaking an election promise” rated higher than “keeping an election promise regardless of how economic circumstances have changed”, 61% favoured the former and 27% the latter. The poll was conducted September 6 to 9 from a sample of 1409.
The Guardian reports on the fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which continues to hold off from voting intention and does not include leadership ratings on this occasion, and is mostly devoted to questions on incidental political relevance regarding the Optus security breach. Fifty-one per cent would support stronger curbs on information collected by private companies and 47% expressed concern about governments collecting their personal information. The full report should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full Essential Research report here.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 2:58 pm
I see the defenders of S3 having nothing but personal attacks.
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Since the election there has been a narrative that the Liberals are finished in their former metro seats and only yesterday you wrote the Liberals off in Higgins and Teal seats for being too right wing.
“cancelled” for your faith! Tell that to Mahsa Amini!!
It feels wrong, but I laughed anyway.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 2:58 pm
I see the defenders of S3 having nothing but personal attacks.
中华人民共和国
Sic em Rex
https://youtu.be/NdrOWhxA46Q
Player Onesays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 2:40 pm
So from your perspective they shed nothing.
At the moment support to scrap/amend S3 is coming a narrow grouping, it is only through the broadening of that group throughout the CPG that Labor will be able to minmise the damage any change brings.
In the last few days we have seen a number of examples where journalist are focusing on the promise without any consideration of S3 itself. This is what needs to change.
Why fall into the trap being set by Murdoch and the majority of the press gallery? Albanese and Chalmers are far smarter than the likes of Rex and the twitterati.
Obviously Guy doesn’t want any votes from people in Geelong and other places who commute to work in Melbourne by V/Line trains. Does he really dislike people who live outside Melbourne?
Barney
That why if the ALP intends to walk away from stage 3 they need to link it to inflation and interest rates.
Regarding the Stage 3 tax cuts, someone on the median full time earning of about $75,000 p.a. would receive a cut in their marginal tax rate from 32.5% to 30%. This would apply to income over $45,000.
In summary, the median full time worker would receive a tax cut of 2.5% of 30k = $750 per annum ≈ $14.40 per week. No big deal – two sandwiches. However, most people care more about money than I do. In my opinion it is just not politically possible to to take this away.
On the other hand, someone on double the median earnings ($150k p.a, top 8%) would receive a cut of just under $4,000 p.a (nearly $80 per week). No need to do anything now but definitely something to look at next year. In the meantime “We have no plans”.
EDIT: it might help the debate if numbers like this were more widely known.
It is a victory for the Coalition that there are general expectations that promises have no credibility, that all politicians should be mistrusted and that governments are expected to break promises.
All these are small government boosters. The link between the notion of a thoroughly corrupted government and small government is not accidental. That only a small minority in society was rigging the system in its favour added to that.
None of that is accidental. It is the direct result of lots of hard marketing by the small government hard right.
The Greens and the Teals set themselves for the past decade in opposition to this. They did ‘same old, same old’. Labor politicians were as corrupt and untrustworthy as the Coalition. Only the Greens and the Teals were to be trusted.
So. What do we have?
1. The Greens representing 12% of the electorate are trying to bully the system into adopting their tiny minority views.
2. The ones who spent a decade decrying same old same old are trying desperately to get Labor to break a major election promise. It is the Greens who decide which Labor promises must be broken and which Labor promises must be kept and which Labor promises must be exceeded. After all they are the moral minority. The righteous ones. The ones with integrity.
3. Electorally, the ones who made good political mileage on ‘integrity’ are now trying desperately to get Labor to behave without integrity.
4. The ones who are screaming loudest about integrity are also the ones who are hiding their processes in relation to bullying behaviour.
5. The ones who promised that they supported the Statement from the Heart are now actively trying to destroy the Statement from the Heart.
I rather like a polity in which a government is expected to do what it promised it would do. That should be the norm. Not the exception. Those urging governments to break promises should be treated as being the ones who are trying to undermine integrity itself and trust in government.
I rather like a polity in which keeping promises is normal, rather than the exception.
I rather like a polity in which integrity is where you start when deciding policy implementation – not where you stop as soon as the noisy ones start screaming and and hollering and murdercratting.
Labor is doing an excellent job on all three: keeping promises, behaving with integrity, not breaking promises. Further, it is systematically delivering on the values it expressed during the campaign.
The Greens and the Teals and the Coalition are failing comprehensively on all three. You can’t trust them. They lack integrity. They are two-faced.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 2:58 pm
Yes Rex, we all know how much integrity your words hold.
What will your position be when your teal friends start suggesting S3 should be amended rather than scrapped?
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 3:41 pm
Inflation and interest rates are no reason for tax cuts. That was the Coalition meme to excuse employers from higher wage growth.
‘Blessed are those persecuted’: Pastor prayed with Thorburn
City on a Hill’s pastor has revealed he prayed with Andrew Thorburn before he resigned from Essendon and lamented living in a time where you can be “cancelled” for your faith.
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What a squandered opportunity! Just imagine if Thorburn and said pastor could have used their power of prayer on the Essendon team. A premiership has gone begging.
Barney
Inflation and interest rates are no reason for tax cuts. That was the Coalition meme to excuse employers from higher wage growth.
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Lowering taxes is inflationary and higher taxes are deflationary so the ALP could say they don’t want to add to inflation.
BKsays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 3:52 pm
I’ll send my thoughts and prayers next time I converse with doG.
It is tragic.
Homophobes and misogynists get discriminated against all the time in this evil world.
Blessed be the corporations and high income earners, for they shall receive tax cuts…
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
I am surprised the Labor Party doesn’t help the self confidence to sell the fact to the electorate that the Stage 3 tax cuts are unaffordable, reckless, unfair and economic vandalism and that things have changed since the election so they should be repealed. It’s an easy sell
5:50 PM · Oct 8, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
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Perhaps the comfortably off economist and journalist Mr Kouloulas can demonstrate to the Labor Party just how easy it is to sell dumping the 2024 tax cuts, instead of sitting back and prognosticating. Mr Koukoulas is not dependent on Labor winning the next election to get more contracts.
Boerwar 3:58 pm
‘Tis awful, nowadays god fearing christian chaps can’t even burn a heretic without being harassed by the police.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 3:44 pm
Regarding the Stage 3 tax cuts, someone on the median full time earning of about $75,000 p.a. would receive a cut in their marginal tax rate from 32.5% to 30%. This would apply to income over $45,000.
In summary, the median full time worker would receive a tax cut of 2.5% of 30k = $750 per annum ≈ $14.40 per week. No big deal – two sandwiches. However, most people care more about money than I do. In my opinion it is just not politically possible to to take this away.
On the other hand, someone on double the median earnings ($150k p.a, top 8%) would receive a cut of just under $4,000 p.a (nearly $80 per week). No need to do anything now but definitely something to look at next year. In the meantime “We have no plans”.
EDIT: it might help the debate if numbers like this were more widely known.
_______________________________________
The typical median full time worker is too concerned with putting food on the table and clothing his/her children and paying the rent or mortgage to engage with the detail of the 2024 tax cuts. They will be very angry when they discover how little they get as relief from inflationary bracket creep. And they will blame the Government.
Which is why Labor – when the time comes and not before – should reconfigure those cuts to give something meaningful to these people at the expense of those for whom the tax cuts are real chump change, despite the quantum.
It would be an interesting comparison to see how long it took for Insiders to invite Opposition Leader Albanese on to the show and compare that with how long it took before Peter Dutton came on. Just a guess but I’d say Peter Dutton made it before Anthony Albanese did.
Oh dear, I just had the most horrible thought. People are saying that those in that middle bracket of income, for simplicity’s sake, between $100000 and $200000/year, don’t deserve their tax cut as much as those on <$100000/year. And while, in all fairness this is true, I can't help thinking back to the Handshake 2.0 moment for Bill Shorten in the 2019 election when that mining engineer in Queensland refused to shake his hand and also what the Mayor of Townsville told me about the attitude of people in Queensland to Labor's decisions wrt CGT and Negative Gearing, also the tax issue in general. That is, these people don't consider themselves rich and they are usually the most highly financially stressed because they have the biggest mortgages, they send their kids to Private Schools, they like to go on holiday and they like their big boy's toys. So anyone who wants to take something they have taken to the bank in their minds already, away from them, is going to be met with immediate and a likely 'case closed' judgement that they will take all the way to the next election. Aided and cynically abetted by the Coalition. And these people tend to be the Swinging Voters in the middle who decide election outcomes by looking at what's in it for them. As unhappy as we may be about that.
Beemer:
It seems that in addition to the (political) “bed wetters” one should add the “premature ejaculators”, and perhaps also the “orgasm fakers” too!
Beemer:
That’s logically backwards.
Instead, if:
– there is a current link between inflation/interest rates and income tax (which there might be); and
– inflation/interest rates threaten to be too high (possible in the case of inflation)
then one should delay or cancel income tax cuts
I am little worried – I agreed with Kanye West on something.
He has called for more international support for the Iranian protestors.
Is that really a “middle” bracket? The median income is more like $50k.
I see that the Extinction Rebellionistas are now taking to damaging a major Picasso.
This stunt might get them some serious jail time.
BK @ #1713 Sunday, October 9th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
No, it’s not because of their Faith, it’s because of the ‘Values’, such as they are, that their Faith espouses and how that doesn’t make a good fit with an inclusive football club, or any sporting club for that matter.
It’s always the freaking religious that play the victim card, like THEY are being discriminated against! Well do they ever stop to think about the sort of discrimination they mete out on the regular without a thought? To the LGBTQI+ community, to women who have had or want an abortion? To just about anyone who they think doesn’t conform to their way of thinking we should live our lives!
Anyway, they’re no more a religion these days than your local bank branch is. They’re both in it for the money.
So they can take their victim card and shove it where they think the sun shines out of. And concentrate on making money from unsuspecting rubes. Jeez, is it any wonder that a former bank CEO is now the CEO of a Megachurch? Not to me it isn’t, it’s a perfect fit.
And if anyone is interested, The Offsiders program today discussed this issue with sensitivity and intelligence. Search it out.
C@t
(Edit: address pernicious effects of less than and greater than symbols)
First of all, any cuts to those earning less than 100k also apply to those earning greater than 100k, whereas the reverse is not the case
Secondly, cuts to those earning less than 100k more fully benefit the general economy due to higher propensity to spend, resulting to higher sales that benefit the owners of businesses, who tend to be those earning greater than 100k
The best approach remains dynamic (week by week) refund of GST paid on purchases via EFT; sanitised by the equivalent of Zeno’s paradox
The Picasso was last sold in 2015 for over $A200 million. If it is the original and not a print that the Extinction Rebellionistas have damaged they could be in deep do do.
Ah. The painting had a protective cover. The stunters glued themselves to that.
a r @ #1726 Sunday, October 9th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
And what is the mean and the mode?
Not to mention that you’re pulling out a very tired old saw with that line because it has been proven, time and again, that the people on $50k can and do vote against their best financial interest due to the fact that they are also usually the least well-educated, and informed via the media that most of us here wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. Sad but true. So there needs to be another way for the government to skin the revenue cat.
Boer:
Nothing more than a left wing version of Bullingdon Club (a Tory club at Oxford that specialises in trashing local pubs etc, then pulling out members chequebooks to pay for “damage” on the stop)
B.S. Fairman @ #1725 Sunday, October 9th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
Is it because they’re ‘White’?
Sorry, just riffing on Yeezy’s ‘White Lives Matter’ t-shirt from his latest collection. 🙂
EGT
I prefer the Bullingdon Club.
They are thinking local and trashing local.
IMO we are well into the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
Fuckwit stunters detract from any real policy process.
Inflation, maybe about 12% by the time stage 3 comes in, will push some low income earners (about 40-45k) into the 30% marginal tax bracket and some high income earners (> 175 k) into the 45% marginal bracket. This will go some way to offset the cost of the cuts but not by much. With a middle tax band extending from about where the minimum full time wage will be in 2024 to well over double the median, bracket creep will no longer be a big deal for the time being unless inflation remains high.
I’m sorry, but I may have missed something, but what does gluing yourself to the protective cover of a Picasso painting have to do with saving animals from extinction!?!
If these people spent less time being exhibitionists and more time volunteering for feral pest eradication programs, even something as simple but worthy as going to an island or an endangered habitat, which has been overgrown by grass and weeds, thus preventing native animals from living successfully there, and weeding the thing so the animals can survive and thrive, then I might take them more seriously.
The average full time earnings in Australia (for ~38 hour week) are about $95k p.a. The distribution is skewed higher, so a relatively small number of high earners drag the average up.
The median (half above, half below) is about $75 k p.a.
The minimum wage is about $42 k p.a. (Full time equivalent).
Anyone earning over $150 k p.a. are in the top 10%.
And hardly anyone except Rupert and Gina think that they are rich.
C@t
50% of wage/salary earners get less than $62,400 and 75% get less than $94,000. So any talk of $100-200,000 as being remotely ‘middle’ is a 😆
14/12/2021
In August 2021, median weekly earnings for employees was $1,200, up $50 from $1,150 in August 2020. Median weekly earnings increased at a faster rate for women than men over the past 6 years, in part because the proportion of women working full-time increased.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-working-conditions/employee-earnings/latest-release#:~:text=Median%20employee%20earnings%20was%20%241%2C200,per%20hour%20since%20August%202020.
C@tmomma @ #1832 Sunday, October 9th, 2022 – 3:45 pm
On the one hand I agree with both of those.
On the other, I don’t think people voting irrationally means $100-200k should be described as “middle income”. Unless/until the statistics say it actually is, anyways. There must be some way to communicate with/about the mininformed without entrenching misinformation.
Sounds about right. 🙂
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 11:40 am
As I said last night, like mental illness, insomnia is easily cured by those who don’t suffer it.
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Spending way too much time on Poll Bludger wouldn’t help.
Less PB and more exercise would be my advice. Also give up the hooter. Fries your brain that stuff.
Nobody knows what conditions will be like on 1 July 2024. It’s over the financial horizon. In the meantime, Rowe
Well mcqueen is basickly said what turnnbull was acused of chearing the defeat of fellow liberals where is the out rage from 2gb and sky hopefuly she will resign im sure the so called modderits will return
Taylormade says:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 5:13 pm
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 11:40 am
As I said last night, like mental illness, insomnia is easily cured by those who don’t suffer it.
_____________________
Spending way too much time on Poll Bludger wouldn’t help.
Less PB and more exercise would be my advice. Also give up the hooter. Fries your brain that stuff.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
The way the media talks about middle income earners is revealing about the world they live in.
Poroti,
Not wanting to get all Jordan Peterson on you, but median weekly earning doesn’t factor in part time vs full time, and the preferences of individuals to work less than full-time hours.
(Just saying, cause the median ft wage is~$75k, which is still short of the $100-$200k interval.)
Another thing discussed on Insiders this morning was the likely (I hope) rescue of the dozens of Australian women and their young children from the hell of the Syrian refugee camp where they have been stranded for the past seven years.
Peter Dutton demonstrated his usual levels of compassion by telling David Speers that, of course, he was most sympathetic to these poor women and children, particularly the latter, who could hardly be blamed for the behaviour of their parents.
But no, he would not countenance their rescue and repatriation to Australia, because they would pose an unacceptable security risk. Dutton even suggested the six-year-old children might turn into suicide bombers one day.
So what’s the alternative? Let these women and children grow old and rot in a refugee camp hell, away from their families and the Australian way of life their citizenship surely entitles them to?
Would this not in fact be more likely to turn them into brutal terrorists in the years ahead, particularly if they felt, in fact knew, that Australia had abandoned them?
Dutton and other Liberal frontbenchers, such as Karen Andrews, don’t seem to care. Like many on the right, they seem to believe that a lack of compassion and even a show of cruelty are signs of strength.
The independent MP for Fowler, Dai Le, also chimed in with a comment that many of her constituents would not welcome people considered Islamic extremists. Good one Dai, it’s great to see that your destroying Kristina Keneally’s political career paved the way for such an enlightened and empathetic politician.
I only hope the government doesn’t get spooked by such talk into backing down on rescuing the families.
Dandy Murray-Honeydew at 5:44 pm
Not at all JP…………………..for a start he wouldn’t apologise 😆 . Yes all valid. Brownie points for not using ‘average’ 🙂
Cat – He is a complete and utter fool, but if it opens some otherwise ignorant peoples eyes to the situation it is a positive.