Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)

Generally positive perceptions of the federal government combine with mounting concerns about the economy in two new attitudinal polls.

Three slabs of minor polling news in lieu of what I’d consider a proper federal opinion poll:

• The quarterly JWS Research True Issues survey of issue salience finds concerns about the cost of living have shot up since March, with 38% choosing it as one of the three issues the federal government should be most focused on, up from 16%. This pushes hospitals, health care and ageing to second place, down from 37% to 34%. Twenty per cent think the national economy headed in the right direction, down eight points since March, compared with 33% for wrong direction, up three, maintaining a downward trend going back to early last year. The new federal government scores 54% on an index score for its general performance, meaning it scored very slightly above par overall on a measure where respondents were asked to rank it on a five-point scale, which compares with 47% for the previous government in March. The survey was conducted August 12 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• SEC Newgate’s monthly Mood of the Nation attitudinal polling, conducted from a sample of 1800, finds 47% consider the federal government is doing a good to excellent job, up eight points since June. Fifty-seven per cent expressed support for an indigenous voice to parliament, down one on May, with opposition at 19%, up three. There was a ten-point increase in positivity towards “Australia transitioning its electricity generation to renewables” since June, now at 70%, with 12% negatively disposed, down seven.

• Roy Morgan’s weekly update video informs us that its polling conducted from August 22 to 28 had Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 53-47 a week earlier and a good deal narrower than recent results from Newspoll and Resolve Strategic. Primary votes are Labor 36% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39.5% (up one), Greens 10.5% (down one) and One Nation 4% (up one-and-a-half).

The Age/Herald has also trickled out the further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll:

• The government’s legislated target of a 43% reduction in carbon emissions was supported by 62%, including 27% who strongly supported it, and opposed by 19%, including 10% who were strongly opposed.

• The 500 New South Wales respondents from the poll included 56% who reckoned John Barilaro’s trade commissioner appointment a case of “jobs for the boys”, compared with only 14% for the alternative option that he was a worthy candidate in a fair process, and 45% who felt Dominic Perrottet had handled the matter badly compared with 27% who thought he had handled it well.

• The 500 Victorian respondents included 42% who credited state Labor with greater integrity and honesty compared with 21% for the Coalition, and 53% who expected Labor to win the election compared with 18% for the Coalition.

• Only 7% expect COVID-19 numbers to increase in the coming months, down from 20% in March; 33% expect roughly the same numbers “perhaps for months/years”, down six from March; and 42% expect numbers to decrease, up from 28%, which includes 25% who thought they would later come back again, up from 18%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 34
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  1. The sad truth of it all.

    “He gave us all freedom – but we don’t know what to do with it.”

    In his last years, when he was an active campaigner for charity, following the death of his wife Raisa to cancer, Gorbachev was a paradoxical figure. Abroad, he was viewed as the hero of the cold war, whose actions – or lack of them – ushered in a freer world. In Russia he was largely reviled and unloved, an unperson at best, a traitor at worst.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/mikhail-gorbachev-dies-soviet-leader-92

  2. Player One – Labor isn’t opting for expediency. Labor is valuing trust and integrity over expediency. Expediency would be “whoops, the economic situation is so much more difficult than we were told it would be during the election, need to cancel these tax cuts and spend on something that will benefit more of our voters”. Expediency is the Greens demanding Labor break election promises because it doesn’t hurt THEM.

    Albanese needs to restore trust in government and specifically in Labor. He will keep all election promises, full stop.

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 6:27 am

    ‘fess,
    Bludgers through the back channels are saying they hope you can come to the Upnorth Bludgers Lunch on May 21 next year.
    中华人民共和国
    Hope you can make it ‘fess. It wil be a hoot. Not a shade on the Bobawabba Wedding but well worth a laugh.

  4. Farwell to the brave, respected Gorbachev, who stands in stark contrast to Putin, who wants Russia to return to the glory days of the Soviet Union, but that train has left the station, I think.

  5. Taylormade @ #88 Tuesday, August 30th, 2022 – 1:22 pm

    They just can’t help themselves can they.
    It must be ingrained.

    You are so right TailoredMerde!

    The NSW Liberal Party faces a damaging branch-stacking scandal involving more than 100 members who were signed up and given fake email addresses in a process that may have improperly influenced votes for key party roles, policies and state and federal preselection.

    Confidential Liberal Party documents leaked to the Herald detail the scores of party members given email addresses and/or phone numbers that do not belong to them but are designed to look legitimate and thwart party controls aimed at stopping branch stacking.

    The scheme appears designed to give one or more Liberal figures control over the party’s communications with the members, including some people who did not want to join the party.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/revealed-how-fake-emails-were-used-in-nsw-liberals-branch-stacking-scheme-20220830-p5bdzd.html

  6. Arky @ #40 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 9:04 am

    I heard Victorian Liberal advertising on radio today (they are going pretty early with election campaign ad spending!), the most notable feature was the attempted rebranding of the leader as “Matt Guy” instead of Matthew. Because that was what people didn’t like about Guy, the two syllable name.

    They have seriously no idea. Bailieu led the state Libs to a one term and done government because even Liberal rusted ons were grumbling about his government being “do nothing”. Andrews had mega success by promising and delivering major infrastructure. Now the Libs want to campaign around cancelling the suburban rail link…

    The TV version of that has Guy saying he will divert every $ to health. A statement he has already had to withdraw once knowing that in fact he can’t. This is the big reason but I think there are others.
    Not a good start.

  7. How common is this?
    Twitter: Prof Jan Slapeta-
    “Should I be shocked again? 1pm lecture – no one! I lectured empty chairs. 10 min in a student that was early for 2pm lecture showed up (completely unrelated subject different degree). We had a great discussion and I had one keen student learning. Where from now? Help @Sydney_Uni”
    The train strike could have something to do with it, but does make you wonder if COVID’s remote learning has resulted in empty lecture theatres.

  8. Quasar @ #59 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 9:32 am

    How common is this?
    Twitter: Prof Jan Slapeta-
    “Should I be shocked again? 1pm lecture – no one! I lectured empty chairs. 10 min in a student that was early for 2pm lecture showed up (completely unrelated subject different degree). We had a great discussion and I had one keen student learning. Where from now? Help @Sydney_Uni”
    The train strike could have something to do with it, but does make you wonder if COVID’s remote learning has resulted in empty lecture theatres.

    I think it’s broader than the train strike. I have a side gig doing some post-grad lectures. Near empty classes are common – even with a hybrid model where students can attend remotely. Which is a problem for small classes which involve discussion. There’s currently a push to have students apply for special consideration if they need to access the recorded lectures.

  9. One of the very early reports of the NSW ICAC was titled “Report on investigation into north coast land development / Independent Commission Against Corruption”. It found that the the then National Party Members for Ballina and Tweed had “…contributed to a climate conducive of corruption”.

    In Queensland Joh was only found not guilty because the young Nat, Luke Shaw, was on the Jury. Hinze died before trial. Leisha Harvey, Brian Austin and Don “Shady” Lane served time.

    As Keating rightly observed the National Party is the most proven corrupt party in Australia. It is in their DNA.

    No wonder Barnaby and Co. fought so hard against FICAC.

    “Barnaby Joyce heckled as ‘corrupt’ after saying rural voters don’t care about ICAC”

    https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7723687/joyce-heckled-as-corrupt-after-saying-rural-voters-dont-care-about-icac/

  10. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 7:33 am
    _____________________
    As a Victorian i tend to focus on Victorian and Federal Politics.
    PB 101 – don’t comment on things I know nothing about. I wouldn’t know Barilaro from a bar of soap.
    Poor old Socrates had Tim Smith running for re-relection the other day which illustrates the danger when you go outside your home state.

  11. “ The Liberals are amateurs when it comes to branch stacking. They give it a shot but they are dabblers.”

    Twenty years ago, I would have even believed you. Then Sukkar and Bastian happened. That proposition is unsustainable now. I’m guessing you actually know that as well.

  12. [‘Former prime minister Paul Keating has paid tribute to Mikhail Gorbachev, calling the former Soviet leader the most significant person in the world in the second half of the 20th century after his death was announced earlier this morning.

    “If Roosevelt was the most significant person in the world in the first half of the 20th century, Gorbachev was the most significant in the second half of the 20th century,” Keating told ABC Radio Melbourne.

    “Only he had the intellectual understanding about the pointlessness of continuation of the Cold War and the destructive capability of it.”

    Keating also lamented the expansion of NATO, which he said was a result of American triumphalism after the Cold War – in contrast to Gorbachev, who was “letting the place down peacefully”.

    “His great commitment was to cease the Cold War and he agreed to a united Germany and NATO – that’s the deal [former German chancellor] Helmut Kohl did with him – to put the two Germanys within NATO on the condition that NATO did not move east.

    “Of course, as you know, as the Americans broke that agreement, by putting Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and then the three Baltic States into NATO. And of course, more finally, now, their attempts to do the same with Ukraine.”] – SMH.

    I think Keating’s correct on both counts but that still doesn’t justify Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

  13. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 9:53 am
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 7:33 am
    _____________________
    As a Victorian i tend to focus on Victorian and Federal Politics.
    PB 101 – don’t comment on things I know nothing about. I wouldn’t know Barilaro from a bar of soap.
    Poor old Socrates had Tim Smith running for re-relection the other day which illustrates the danger when you go outside your home state.
    中华人民共和国
    Is corruption in the DNA of Victorian Nats like their Northern Cousins?

    Or does the inbreeding stop at the border?

  14. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 9:59 am

    “ The Liberals are amateurs when it comes to branch stacking. They give it a shot but they are dabblers.”

    Twenty years ago, I would have even believed you. Then Sukkar and Bastian happened. That proposition is unsustainable now. I’m guessing you actually know that as well.
    ________
    Baastian gave it a red hot Labor go, but it was still amateurish. The operation didn’t last very long before collapsing. Now ML was a lot more successful here in Victoria, operating for decades. But the really professional operations you never hear a peep about.

  15. Having read the last two days of posts I’m coming to the conclusion that Labor have basically decided to let the S3 debate run it’s course without offering alternative plans (correct decision in my mind).
    The LNP will try to get them to drop the tax, purely for the electoral advantage that comes with a broken promise.
    Greens and Teals can flap their arms and kick up dust but should be careful of encouraging Labor to drop the tax as some (Pocock?) have campaigned on governments breaking promises.
    Meanwhile the population gets to hear all sorts of shit about the taxes and public sentiment may shift towards them being bad for the economy.
    The ground is prepared for Labor to be intelligent and creative over the ensuing time to either redirect or replace the tax (if need be) or implement and reap the benefit of being true to their word , negating negative election campaigns from the Tories.

  16. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 9:53 am

    PB 101 – don’t comment on things I know nothing about.

    ___________________________________________

    Well you’ve already failed that test. Big time.

  17. Fortunately the Treasurer gets it:

    “The reason we point out these tax cuts come in in two years time is because we’ve got some near-term challenges and they occupy 100% of our time.

    “The issues in the labour market that the jobs and skills summit it all about, issues in multinational tax avoidance… our position on the tax cuts haven’t changed, we’ve got other priorities and other focuses and that’s occupying all that time.”

  18. ”Am I the only one who thinks of South Park when there is all the talk of Stage 3?”

    Wasn’t that the Coalition’s plan to achieve net zero by 2050? OK, I don’t remember the bit about underpants but phase 2 looks the same…

  19. Taylormade

    “Poor old Socrates had Tim Smith running for re-relection the other day which illustrates the danger when you go outside your home state.”

    Morning, how are things in Menzies House.

    True I am an outsider on Victorian State politics and didn’t know that the Vic Libs had let Tim Smith go. I naturally assumed they didn’t have any more credible candidates to replace him with.

    Enjoy the campaign. Which theme will the Vic Libs go with in their signage – teal or sky blue? Or maybe light green? Will there be a Liberal logo, or will they be badged as 85 independents who happen to have the same colour blue shirts and policies?

  20. Dog’s Brunch says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 10:15 am

    On another topic, this would be good, eh?
    中华人民共和国
    So many “kook babblers” in the room at the one time! Bound to be a major COVID superspreader event with all those unvaxxed!!

  21. https://www.drive.com.au/news/street-side-power-poles-electric-car-chargers

    Street-side power poles to become electric car chargers in $2 million NSW trial

    50 electric car chargers to be installed on power poles within the state

    “Power poles line most of our public streets and that presents an opportunity for the electric car charging market. They’re an accessible, safe, and practical option for electric car charging.”

    Is this idea too simple to work?

  22. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 10:24 am

    In other news, the Coronavirus Australia app is being decommissioned today. I’d forgotten about that one too.
    中华人民共和国
    Scott Morrison was the Minister in charge of its’ roll out.

  23. Dog’s Brunch @ #72 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 10:11 am

    Having read the last two days of posts I’m coming to the conclusion that Labor have basically decided to let the S3 debate run it’s course without offering alternative plans (correct decision in my mind).
    The LNP will try to get them to drop the tax, purely for the electoral advantage that comes with a broken promise.
    Greens and Teals can flap their arms and kick up dust but should be careful of encouraging Labor to drop the tax as some (Pocock?) have campaigned on governments breaking promises.
    Meanwhile the population gets to hear all sorts of shit about the taxes and public sentiment may shift towards them being bad for the economy.
    The ground is prepared for Labor to be intelligent and creative over the ensuing time to either redirect or replace the tax (if need be) or implement and reap the benefit of being true to their word , negating negative election campaigns from the Tories.

    RealPolitik:
    Labor opposed the tax cuts until they didn’t.
    Labor will support the tax cuts until they don’t.

  24. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 10:23 am

    Taylormade

    “Poor old Socrates had Tim Smith running for re-relection the other day which illustrates the danger when you go outside your home state.”

    Morning, how are things in Menzies House.

    True I am an outsider on Victorian State politics and didn’t know that the Vic Libs had let Tim Smith go. I naturally assumed they didn’t have any more credible candidates to replace him with.

    Enjoy the campaign. Which theme will the Vic Libs go with in their signage – teal or sky blue? Or maybe light green? Will there be a Liberal logo, or will they be badged as 85 independents who happen to have the same colour blue shirts and policies?
    中华人民共和国
    Will they get John Howard to “help” in marginal seats?

    So many questions – so few answers.

  25. Mavis quoting PK wrote:
    “Of course, as you know, as the Americans broke that agreement, by putting Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and then the three Baltic States into NATO. And of course, more finally, now, their attempts to do the same with Ukraine.”] – SMH.

    I think Keating’s correct on both counts but that still doesn’t justify Putin’s actions in Ukraine.”

    The Baltic states would vehemently disagree with you and PK there. The Americans didn’t “put the three Baltic States into NATO”. The Baltic states fought for membership, recognising the existential threat posed by Russia and clearly demonstrated on February 24. When I met former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves in Tallinn last month, he noted that it took the invasion of Ukraine to take his warnings, over the last thirty years, for the west to him seriously.

  26. Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 10:28 am

    “Is this idea too simple to work?”

    It relies on the judicious selection of poles!
    中华人民共和国
    Dumb question I know – these electric cars are a real novelty in Thailand – but who pays for the electricity? Is it like a coin metre or credit card thingy???

  27. Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #83 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 10:28 am

    “Is this idea too simple to work?”

    It relies on the judicious selection of poles!

    Hmm. Thanks, I think. Absent the answers to two unknowns, I can easily imagine every single power pole having two car charging outlets, and thinking about it, the ability to generally charge any standardised battery. The two unknowns are managing the grid and managing payment. Security could be boosted by adding cameras higher up the pole. It seems like a solution that’s too obvious.

  28. Trump has gone on a supa mega rant. Whilst the DOJ has yet to file their response to special master request. Needs to be done within a few hours.

    —-
    Meidastouch on twitter

    If a friend of yours posted over 100 times in one day on social media about anything, no matter how benign, you would be very concerned about their mental state. So what does one say about a FPOTUS posting nearly 100 times about ‘Q drops,’ rants, & other conspiracy theories?

  29. Upnorth @ #80 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 10:26 am

    Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 10:24 am

    In other news, the Coronavirus Australia app is being decommissioned today. I’d forgotten about that one too.
    中华人民共和国
    Scott Morrison was the Minister in charge of its’ roll out.

    As I posted, with detailed graphs, and quotes from the inventors of Bluetooth, on the day that its details were announced, the so-called app was a fraud from beginning to end. The actual physical properties of Bluetooth installations on mobile phones meant, and still mean, that Bluetooth interaction between phones simply cannot, under any circumstances at all, be usefully used as a measure of the proximity of two phones.

    It was simply impossible to write a specification that was feasible, and to build an application that fulfilled this function, because it the nature of Bluetooth application in differing phone brands and models, and the random nature of inter-phone signal attenuation, rendered the acquisition of actionable data IMPOSSIBLE. Without real, ‘accurate’ data, no software can ever, ever work.

    To give an idea of the nature of the problem, the Bluetooth signal broadcast by a Galaxy S21 is, literally, 10,000 times stronger than that of a Galaxy S5. Also, the attenuation caused by a human body on the signal from a phone in a shirt pocket is equivalent to 25 metres of inter-person space. The same measured inter-phone signal would be registered by the phone in the hand of the person behind you in the queue, or sitting a a table at the coffee shop on the other side of the mall, in front of you. The whole project was a $70 million scam perpetrated by whichever of the Big 4 ‘won’ the project. $35 million per ‘detection’.

  30. Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ #89 Wednesday, August 31st, 2022 – 10:43 am

    ” I can easily imagine every single power pole having two car charging outlets”

    Nightmare scenario!

    So I’m guessing then that it’s the grid that will limit the usefulness. So now I’m thinking about home charging. What if every home has two chargers, so that two cars can charge at the same time? Does that cause a similar concern?


  31. How common is this?
    Twitter: Prof Jan Slapeta-
    “Should I be shocked again? 1pm lecture – no one! I lectured empty chairs. 10 min in a student that was early for 2pm lecture showed up (completely unrelated subject different degree). We had a great discussion and I had one keen student learning. Where from now? Help @Sydney_Uni”
    The train strike could have something to do with it, but does make you wonder if COVID’s remote learning has resulted in empty lecture theatres.

    Does he do interesting lectures?
    https://www.sydney.edu.au/science/about/our-people/academic-staff/jan-slapeta.html

    Should he be thinking of putting them online?

  32. Suggestion 13-year olds fill labour shortages shows lack of leadership, Wells says

    Australia’s peak retail body this morning released a submission to the government’s jobs summit suggesting children as young as 13 could be put to work to help fill labour shortages.

    Anika Wells, the minister for aged care, was asked about that suggestion this morning on Channel 9 and said while “workforce is the key issue in country” she certainly did not think lowering minimum working age requirements was the way to get there.

    “To me the fact that we’re throwing out ideas like this – apart from the throwback to remember that time Scott Morrison suggested children drive forklifts – suggests that there’s been a lack of leadership in this country regarding [industrial relations].

    Thank god we’ve got the jobs summit coming up tomorrow and Friday here in Canberra, so that 140 people from all sides of the IR system can get together and come up with agreed criteria to stop things like that.”

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