Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)

Generally positive perceptions of the federal government combine with mounting concerns about the economy in two new attitudinal polls.

Three slabs of minor polling news in lieu of what I’d consider a proper federal opinion poll:

• The quarterly JWS Research True Issues survey of issue salience finds concerns about the cost of living have shot up since March, with 38% choosing it as one of the three issues the federal government should be most focused on, up from 16%. This pushes hospitals, health care and ageing to second place, down from 37% to 34%. Twenty per cent think the national economy headed in the right direction, down eight points since March, compared with 33% for wrong direction, up three, maintaining a downward trend going back to early last year. The new federal government scores 54% on an index score for its general performance, meaning it scored very slightly above par overall on a measure where respondents were asked to rank it on a five-point scale, which compares with 47% for the previous government in March. The survey was conducted August 12 to 15 from a sample of 1000.

• SEC Newgate’s monthly Mood of the Nation attitudinal polling, conducted from a sample of 1800, finds 47% consider the federal government is doing a good to excellent job, up eight points since June. Fifty-seven per cent expressed support for an indigenous voice to parliament, down one on May, with opposition at 19%, up three. There was a ten-point increase in positivity towards “Australia transitioning its electricity generation to renewables” since June, now at 70%, with 12% negatively disposed, down seven.

• Roy Morgan’s weekly update video informs us that its polling conducted from August 22 to 28 had Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 53-47 a week earlier and a good deal narrower than recent results from Newspoll and Resolve Strategic. Primary votes are Labor 36% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39.5% (up one), Greens 10.5% (down one) and One Nation 4% (up one-and-a-half).

The Age/Herald has also trickled out the further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll:

• The government’s legislated target of a 43% reduction in carbon emissions was supported by 62%, including 27% who strongly supported it, and opposed by 19%, including 10% who were strongly opposed.

• The 500 New South Wales respondents from the poll included 56% who reckoned John Barilaro’s trade commissioner appointment a case of “jobs for the boys”, compared with only 14% for the alternative option that he was a worthy candidate in a fair process, and 45% who felt Dominic Perrottet had handled the matter badly compared with 27% who thought he had handled it well.

• The 500 Victorian respondents included 42% who credited state Labor with greater integrity and honesty compared with 21% for the Coalition, and 53% who expected Labor to win the election compared with 18% for the Coalition.

• Only 7% expect COVID-19 numbers to increase in the coming months, down from 20% in March; 33% expect roughly the same numbers “perhaps for months/years”, down six from March; and 42% expect numbers to decrease, up from 28%, which includes 25% who thought they would later come back again, up from 18%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “Polls: JWS Research, SEC Newgate and more (open thread)”

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  1. The Department of Home Affairs will investigate data harvesting by social media giant TikTok amid growing privacy concerns over the Chinese-owned app.

  2. Late Riser @ #1132 Sunday, September 4th, 2022 – 6:44 pm

    Thanks for the link C@tmomma.
    I don’t agree with all of it, but the gist of it feels right.
    – The GOP have become MAGA.
    – Senior Republicans are cowards (my opinion) in that they want the Democrats to take care of Trump for them while they bitterly defend Trump.
    – An interesting comment: 40% of the country is 70% of the Republican Party.
    – The Democrats have a decent chance these mid terms.
    Thanks again.

    My pleasure, LR. 🙂

  3. What did American Presidents do after WW2?
    Eisenhower is credited with building huge infrastructure especially the road network, which lasted for 50 years, which is now crumbling and in decay.

    Kennedy prevented Cuban crisis from spiralling into WW3 and faced murderous death.

    LBJ signed off ‘Great society’ Bill but then waged Vietnam war. After he knew Vietnam war was resulting in lots of American deaths especially in
    small towns and villages because of conscription, he did not contest 2nd term.

    Nixon gave more deaths in Vietnam war and chaotic end to that war. Then he gave Watergate.

    Reagan gave Reaganomics and Neo Liberalism.

    George Bush Sr and Bill Clinton did not handle the mantle of true remaining Super Power properly.

    George Bush Jr. gave Iraq war 2 and GFC, expansion of NATO and thus betraying Gorbachev.
    Last 50 years of US administrations culminated in Trump becoming President, poor management of Pandemic and Jan 6 insurrection and treachery.

  4. I don’t see why people are getting their knickers in a twist over EVs being able to tow a caravan at this point in time!?! We’ve hardly got any EVs on the road as it is (1% of sales last year is what I read recently), and the subset of EV owners who are also caravan owners wanting to lug one of the things around the countryside, when there’s naff all charging stations, is a vanishingly small number. Let alone the fact that I think I read that EV charging points are doing something similar to phone chargers whereby different manufacturers are designing different units for their EV models, so the ones available out on the highways and byways may not fit all types of EVs.

    As lovely as it would be if we all had an EV tomorrow … that could tow a caravan… I’m putting a time frame of 6-10 years before that becomes a reality and the de rigueur option for Oz motorists.

  5. Ven

    I watched the video you posted, it was a real shocker. Apparently immigrants are ok as long as they do the jobs others don’t want, don’t earn too much and know their place in society. All good as long as they don’t truly prosper and succeed, that’s not part of the plan.

    Also there’s a lot of old money in the US in towns and small cities whereby certain families essentially truly run/own these populations. Again, most profits go to the minority of families while the majority of workers often inhabit the wrong sides of the railway tracks, literally. This has been going on for generations and shows no sign of changing, a constant cycle of entrenched poverty from which there is no escape. In many ways, there’s a sense that time has stopped still, only the dates change but everything else remains the same as though in a time warp.

  6. It is not a matter of getting one’s knickers in a twist C@t. The ‘cultural’ reality is that half of all new vehicle sales in Australia are either large Crew Cab Utes, which are brought for multiple purposes (but also often written off against tax as a work vehicle), including towing shit for recreational purposes on the weekend. The top two vehicles sold in July were the Hi-Lux and Ranger Crew cabs.

    As for your ‘putting a time frame of 6-10 years’ before “we all” (which I take to mean a reference to at least the middle class, and not restricted to the extremely wealthy) could have “an EV … that could tow a caravan” that will actually require a scientific breakthrough with battery technology that is then commercialised in the same timeframe. That is highly improbable. However, EV bikes, scooters, AND small to medium (ie. driving weights – vehicle, people and goods – of between 1,000 and 1,800kg) vehicles ARE likely to be available at price parity with comparable ICEs in that timeframe.

    For a tradie that ‘wants it all’, then I suggest a long wheel base – crew cab variant of stuff like the PHEV Outlander – will prove to be the way to go for the next 10-15 years at least.

  7. Newspoll 57-43 to Labor

    Popular support for the Coalition has slumped to its equal lowest on record, as Anthony Albanese extends his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

  8. Oz headline:

    Coalition support plunges to record low
    Popular support for the Coalition has slumped to its equal lowest on record, as Anthony Albanese extends his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

  9. Simon Katich @ 9:01pm
    The median distance a passenger vehicle travels in Australia is around 34km, so a PHEV meets your needs quite nicely for city driving almost all the time; with the ICE engine taking up the slack if you forget to charge or need to cover longer distances.

    But, a hybrid engine is significantly more complex than an ICE engine, and much more complex than an EV drive train. This calls into question reliability and cost of maintenance. Nevertheless Toyota/Lexus has really pushed the boundaries here.

    As for batteries, your view is based I think on the previous generations of battery chemistry. Current and emerging battery technologies, especially with active thermal management, are well outlasting their warranty period. Even my 2015 Leaf, with passive thermal management and an improved but not contemporary battery technology, still has 76% battery capacity.

    There is another alternative, which is a battery vehicle with a petrol generator. Nissan has their e-Power drive train for this, available in the Qashqai I believe.

  10. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 9:30 pm
    Newspoll 57-43 to Labor

    Popular support for the Coalition has slumped to its equal lowest on record, as Anthony Albanese extends his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

    Take a deep breath.

  11. TPP: ALP 57 (+1) L/NP 43 (-1)
    Primaries: ALP 37 (0) L/NP 31 (-2) GRN 13 (+1) ON 7 (+1) UAP 2 (0) OTH 10 (0)
    Preferred PM: Albanese 61 (+2) Dutton 22 (-3)
    Albanese: Approve 61 (0) Disapprove 29 (+3)
    Dutton: Approve 35 (-2) Disapprove 43 (+2)


    Newspoll: Coalition support plunges to record low
    9:30PM SEPTEMBER 4, 2022

    Popular support for the Coalition has slumped to its equal lowest on record in the wake of the Morrison ministry controversy, as Anthony Albanese extends his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Liberal and Nationals primary vote falling for a second time since the election, plunging a further two points to land at a historic low of 31 per cent. This is almost five points down on the May election result and puts the Coalition at its equal lowest level of support since 2008, shortly after it went into opposition following the Rudd-slide of November 2007.

    Underlying support for Labor remains unchanged at 37 per cent but, with the fall in support for the Liberal/Nations, Labor has widened its two party preferred lead by two points to 57/43.

    This represents an almost 10-point gain for Labor since the election, as it continues to stamp its authority over the Liberal/Nationals parties.

    Labor won the election with a primary vote of just 32.6 per cent but a two-party preferred split of 52.1/47.9 per cent.

    The last time the Coalition primary vote was this low, however, Labor commanded a 63/37 per cent two-party preferred lead.

  12. AR
    ” That is before subsidies in each case.

    Is not! Unless the England price is missing a zero?”

    Correct! Sorry, getting tired. Amended figures for 45 kWhr Leaf below. These are converted to Au dollars from £ and NOK.

    Nissan Leaf in Australia = $52,000 (less $2000 subsidy)
    Nissan Leaf in England = $44,000 (less $4000 subsidy)
    Nissan Leaf in Norway = $33,000 (less $3000 subsidy)

    The point is getting the emissions policy right is far more critical to the price consumers pay than the size of a subsidy.

  13. I imagine Rex and Nath and Taylormade will not be happy with tonight’s Newspoll, nor will be Sky News, 2GB, the ABC etc.
    And Dutton boycotting the jobs summit was a dumb move, we all know it.

  14. I can see the morning headline in the Telegraph and Herald Sun:
    “Dutton’s popularity jumps 5 points.”

    Great figures though for Labor. Its the governing bit 🙂 Adieu Mattthew Guy too.

    The only down side is that on these figures there is no chance Morrison will resign and risk a by-election.

    I wonder what Monday’s distraction will be? Night all.

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