Still no sign of Newspoll, despite today’s resumption of parliament, nor of voting intention from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll. As reported by The Guardian, the latter turns out to be the most discouraging set of numbers for the Albanese government so far, in that 40% were already prepared to rate the government as doing a poor job on relieving cost of living pressures, compared with 23% for good and 37% for neither. Apart from that, all the unusually spare report from The Guardian has to tell us is that “a majority of respondents believe the Albanese government can influence the direction of inflation and interest rates”, which seems unlikely to bode well. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1082, presumably from Thursday to Monday – the full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
UPDATE: While “neither good nor poor” responses are high in each case, the poll also finds the government rated good on the pandemic by 36% and poor by 25%; good on education by 35% and poor by 18%; and good on climate change by 33% and poor by 21%. Forty-four per cent supported the government’s carbon emissions target while 40% said it did not go far enough, but no option was provided for those who felt it went too far. Fifty per cent said the Greens should support the government, with a question that emphasised Labor had been elected on that basis, while 25% said they should only do so if Labor agreed to changes consistent with its own policies. Full report here.
Also of note:
• Latika Bourke of the Age/Herald reports that Liberals Andrew Hastie and Simon Birmingham are looking at the example followed by David Cameron after the Conservatives’ 2005 election defeat to improve diversity in the party’s parliamentary ranks, which involved producing a leadership-backed “A-list” of diverse candidates and encouraging local party associations (which lack a clear equivalent in Australian party structures) to choose candidates through primaries open to non-members.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has deregistered the Liberal Democrats, belatedly giving effect to legislation passed last year that effectively prohibited minor parties from having the words Liberal or Labor in their names. The party was cleverly able to keep the existing name at the May election after withdrawing its application to change its name to the Liberty Democrats (officially the Liberty and Democracy Party) in late March, which compelled the AEC to initiate a lengthy deregistration process that has only now come to fruition.
• Two days after a Daily Telegraph report suggesting he has designs on Marise Payne’s Senate seat should she soon vacate it, the Milton Ulladulla Times reports Andrew Constance plans to run again in Gilmore at the next federal election, after falling 373 votes short of taking the seat from Labor’s Fiona Phillips in May.
With Milton Dick becoming speaker it will mean lots of jokes can be made with his last name.
This won’t be the first time we have had a dick for a Speaker!
There you go, B.S.F.
Member of Macquarie, who nominated Milton Dick for Speaker, is a very good speaker.
Yes Ven. Very impressive.
Though not as likeable as Hollie Hughes, or Michaelia Cash, or Sussan Ley, or . . . .
BKsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 11:28 am
If only the AEC had held firm with the name change for Corangamite.
Bloody Bob Katter! Embarrassing.
BK – I was thinking he is more the head of the house.
BK says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 11:35 am
Bloody Bob Katter! Embarrassing.
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Mad Hatter?
It is nice to see there is contest for Senate President and HOR Speaker. Bring it on.
B.S. Fairman at 10.13 am
Archer has an alternative. This is to join the Lambie network.
She is like a fish out of water in the LNP, despite being from an old Tory family, because she can think for herself. Whether she and Lambie could get on is an open question, but if they can then her hold on Bass would become stronger. It would not be a surprise for two Tassie seats to be held by candidates not from the major parties.
Wilkie is 61 in November so he might last another two terms.
UK Cartoons:
Steven Camley on #scottishcricket found institutionally #racist.
ven
The Senate President outcome is not, IMO, baked in by the numbers. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
@Boer:
I’d welcome a global NATO, FYI.
Xi may well have despotic pretensions of hegemony. We should factor that in to our thinking. That doesn’t mean we should accept the premise.
Armed neutrality would, in a worst case scenario, see us pretty vulnerable to being picked off at will. We should have a strong defence force, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves that we have the luxury of ‘going it alone’.
If Xi decides to throw down with some form of Kinetic war, that will naturally be centred in the Northern Hemisphere of East Asia. Unless, like Bismarck, he has isolated various targets, he’s likely to face a lot of enemies simultaneously. Regardless of how big and strong the PLA and PLA-N are, that means by default he is stretched very thin in the main theatre of any likely war scenario from the get go.
The greater ‘western alliance’ can make that strategic position worse by doing a number of sensible things now. Firstly, by enhancing dramatically Taiwan’s self defence capability. Amphibious invasions are always the worst form of warfare for an attacking force. An integrated A2-AD defence system, with all the modern kit, would make Taiwan largely invulnerable for a Chi-Comm invasion: without any allied ‘boots on the ground’ (and unless China wants to trigger the nuclear trip wires by using tactical nucs, which … would not be wise of them).
What role can Australia play in some Kinetic war in East Asia? Well the likes of Dutton and The WarC@t seem determined for have our young kids bleed dry on the shores of Taiwan or drown in the Strait of Taiwan.
A more sensible response would be for the ADF to focus on securing the South Pacific, Malaysian Peninsula and Indonesian Archipelago via joint maritime operations – conducted mainly by ourselves, Singapore and France forming the spine (and until we get at least three SSNs, with at least one SSN being provided by both AUKUS partner), and also including other ASEAN partners as well (and maybe a frigate or two from the likes of NZ).
The combined alliance ‘southern’ fleet would likely comprise over 100 capital ships, including at least 15 submarines and could effectively achieve three things. Three very very very useful things:
1. Create a defence perimeter 1000nm+ off the Australian coast, thereby keeping the homeland safe;
2. Deny the ChiComms access through the most strategic waterways in the Asia pacific; and
3. Secure those same said waterways for the exclusive use of the alliance.
Ive heard a lot of commentators say that in any ‘Australia vs China’ war we can’t win. IMO this is true. However, equally true is that any kinetic war is unlikely to be some sort of Mano-a-Mano contest. We should be careful to ensure that we stay within our wheelhouse; prepared to defend ourselves and also capable of make a larger contribution IF and only IF we decide that THAT is truly in our national interest (as opposed to simply defaulting to whatever America says or wants – which is the Dutton doctrine [and I strongly suspect that is Sir Charles Marles bottom line as well. Alas]).
edited to add: Australia can ensure that we are not isolated and picked of by a rampant Chi-Comm horde by continuing to develop mutually beneficial bilateral relations with Beijing, and otherwise working via multilateral institutions. In other words repudiating the Morrison doctrine of gobbing off and the Dutton doctrine of volunteering for front line duty, even though the threat of war is but on the distant horizon.
”
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 11:56 am
ven
The Senate President outcome is not, IMO, baked in by the numbers. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
”
The candidates for Senate President are Sue Lines and Ms. Cox.
AZ
Thanks. I liked the raging fires, the horrible traffic queues and the rubber duckies carrying UK refugees to the mainland in the Schrank ‘toon. Not to forget the White Cliffs of Dover. Which reminds me. Will someone trot out Vera Lynn for one last rendition for the inhumation of the Imperium?
Counting in Progress for HOR Speaker.
Mr. Dick – 92 votes
Mr. Wallace – 56 votes
ven
If Cox gets up do the Greens lose their BOP?
Sue Lines won. That was over and done about half an hour ago. 54 votes to 12 votes.
President of the senate votes, so there is no reduction in the balance.
”
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:05 pm
ven
If Cox gets up do the Greens lose their BOP?
”
I don’t think so but I am not an authority on it. Maybe people like you can throw more light on it.
It would appear that all members of the cross bench voted for Milton Dick.
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B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:06 pm
Sue Lines won. That was over and done about half an hour ago. 54 votes to 12 votes.
President of the senate votes, so there is no reduction in the balance.
”
So it appears only Greens voted for Greens candidate.
A-E
Thanks. Interesting discussion. We can agree on quite a few issues, IMO.
I agree re: Marles. Unfortunate, IMO, to say the least. (One thing for Howard and Downer was that they did come out publicly and state that Australia would not be an automatic participant in a cross-Strait war).
I also agree re Australia fighting on Taiwan.
With respect to the latter, China in a kinetic war may take the long view and settle in to attrit the island into starvation, economic destitution and military powerlessness over 10-20 years. Provided China can demonstrate and maintain a capability of sinking merchant ships as they arrive. Taiwan’s food production is at around a third of what is required.
Excellent result for Sue Lines. WA Labor making an important contribution to the Parliament.
ven
Thank you for that.
Glen Greenwald continues to impress. Lol
——-
Aric Toler
@AricToler
·
1h
The “secret list” that — two weeks ago — was published, promoted, and widely discussed across Ukrainian media before Glenn happened to find out about it.
Quote Tweet
Glenn Greenwald
@ggreenwald
· 2h
I’ll be on Fox with @TuckerCarlson, 8:30 pm ET, about the Zelensky Govt’s secret list of “Russian propagandists” — i.e., people such as myself, @RandPaul, @TulsiGabbard, @LulaOficial and others who dared question their demands for endless war support:
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1551486095279415296…
Show this thread
Good to see Wong coming out and condemning Myanmmar’s execution of democrats.
”
BKsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:11 pm
It would appear that all members of the cross bench voted for Milton Dick.
”
BK
There are 58 LNP members of HOR and their candidate got 56. I know Morrison is not in the chamber. So there was cross-voting from LNP to Mr. Dick.
There are 151 members of HOR.
SO number of people who voted.
92+56 = 148.
3 are absent.
The convention in the senate is that the government’s candidate is elected President. The senate is supposed to be less adversarial then the house and the role is therefore less of an umpire than the speaker.
The Greens were just being tokenistic with their nomination. So…. no change.
Ven
Barnaby Joyce was also absent.
Not 100% but pretty damn good, IMO. Plus – rounded to the second decimal point to nail down reliability and validity:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271386.shtml
“ With respect to the latter, China in a kinetic war may take the long view and settle in to attrit the island into starvation, economic destitution and military powerlessness over 10-20 years. Provided China can demonstrate and maintain a capability of sinking merchant ships as they arrive. Taiwan’s food production is at around a third of what is required.”
The Berlin airlift demonstrated the near impossibility of that tactic working. It would be less effectual with Taiwan, especially because there is no sign of American air and sea power diminishing to the extent necessary to make such a blockade work. even if a Trumpian America fucks right off, IMO it would likely prove … very difficult for Beijing to implement militarily. Britain spent fully 1/3 of GNP maintaining a continental blockade during the revolutionary and napoleonic wars. The size of the are needed to be locked down surrounding Taiwan is vast (and that’s only considering the maritime aspect of any blockade).
Of course, the biggest long term impediment to any blockade tactic is the very deep and rapidly growing trade, commerce, travel and social-cultural ties between mainlanders and the Taiwanese themselves. The political blowback with Xi tearing all that up could likely be enough to totally bring him undone.
BSF
Thanks. It is interesting that the Greens were pretending they were the government in the Senate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/stuart-ayres-signed-off-on-jenny-west-as-successful-new-york-trade-candidate-20220726-p5b4og.html
Looks like Minister Ayres has mislead parliament and therefore should resign.
@ Ven at 12:12pm
Faruqi and Thorpe are not present, I believe Lambie & Tyrrell also voted for Cox. Lambie muttered in support during Waters’ speech, in any case.
”
BKsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:20 pm
Ven
Barnaby Joyce was also absent.
”
As I mentioned 3 members of HOR are absent, which includes Morrison, Joyce and one more.
Who is the third one.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:53 am
For example it would be dirt cheap to train half a million townsfolk and station hands how to fire a javelin, set an IED, and work a sniper rifle and to set up a thousand weapons and ammo dumps in remote locations.
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hilarious survivalist fantasy. Something out of the John Marsden series of stories where a handful of plucky teenagers resist an Asian invasion in the bush.
@ Ven “Who is the third one.”
Maria Vamvakinou, of Calwell.
Gosh, I wonder why they would choose today of all days to release these documents …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-26/nsw-government-documents-about-us-trade-job-released/101269776
A-E
I am not convinced that the Berlin Airlift analogy bears. Ditto the Napoleonic blockade. Ditto the WW1 distant blockade – which arguably did work to some extent but for a different set of reasons than might apply today.
Why?
The Taiwanese runways would, presumably, be rendered inoperable on day 1. Merchant ships would be despatched as they neared Taiwanese ports using anti ship missiles.
Two assumptions:
1. that China has the same sort of concrete busting munitions sitting in missile warheads that the US has.
2. that, unlike Russia, China has the industrial capacity to keep feeding missile launchers ad infinitum.
It seems Peter Dutton is trying to keep his powder dry
Must be tough for some Labor partisans to see progress between Bandt and Bowen on climate legislation.
”
Emilius van der Lubbensays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:23 pm
@ Ven at 12:12pm
Faruqi and Thorpe are not present, I believe Lambie & Tyrrell also voted for Cox. Lambie muttered in support during Waters’ speech, in any case.
”
Lambie network voting for Greens candidate is not a good sign for Government.
Excellent to see the sneering of the Libs watching the Teal independents being sworn in.
@Ven
I think it had more to do with Cox’s status as a first nations person. Lambie herself is a first nations person and said in support of Cox something to the effect of “it’s the 21st century” during Waters’ speech congratulating Lines but noting the historic nature of Cox’s candidature.
”
Scottsays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 12:28 pm
It seems Peter Dutton is trying to keep his powder dry
”
Scott
I don’t think so. Why?
There is already a contest for the post of Speaker although he knew that his candidate will be defeated.
A sign that there will be no cooperation from opposition.
Torchbearersays:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 9:56 am
_____________________
Instead of worrying about the previous govt, what’s your take on the Essential poll and the 40% who
rate the government as doing a poor job on relieving cost of living pressures.
The Opposition nominated Wallace so they could say nice things about him for his previous time as speaker. If the ex-speaker was not in the house (for example retired or lost his seat) they probably would not have bothered.
Wowee, huh? 😀
I got disoriented trying to figure out which side was which in the Senate, looking down from above, I’ve been so used to looking in one particular direction for so long.
Taylormade @ #146 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 12:37 pm
They don’t have a rational response to the question. Plus they are probably mostly composed of the Liberal rump. Such as yourself, Taylormade. You’d answer in the negative, just because. We know that.
They don’t have a rational response to the question. Plus they are probably mostly composed of the Liberal rump. Such as yourself, Taylormade. You’d answer in the negative, just because. We know that.
______
So what should the government have done in the last eight weeks to improve wages growth and CoL pressures?