Still no sign of Newspoll, despite today’s resumption of parliament, nor of voting intention from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll. As reported by The Guardian, the latter turns out to be the most discouraging set of numbers for the Albanese government so far, in that 40% were already prepared to rate the government as doing a poor job on relieving cost of living pressures, compared with 23% for good and 37% for neither. Apart from that, all the unusually spare report from The Guardian has to tell us is that “a majority of respondents believe the Albanese government can influence the direction of inflation and interest rates”, which seems unlikely to bode well. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1082, presumably from Thursday to Monday – the full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
UPDATE: While “neither good nor poor” responses are high in each case, the poll also finds the government rated good on the pandemic by 36% and poor by 25%; good on education by 35% and poor by 18%; and good on climate change by 33% and poor by 21%. Forty-four per cent supported the government’s carbon emissions target while 40% said it did not go far enough, but no option was provided for those who felt it went too far. Fifty per cent said the Greens should support the government, with a question that emphasised Labor had been elected on that basis, while 25% said they should only do so if Labor agreed to changes consistent with its own policies. Full report here.
Also of note:
• Latika Bourke of the Age/Herald reports that Liberals Andrew Hastie and Simon Birmingham are looking at the example followed by David Cameron after the Conservatives’ 2005 election defeat to improve diversity in the party’s parliamentary ranks, which involved producing a leadership-backed “A-list” of diverse candidates and encouraging local party associations (which lack a clear equivalent in Australian party structures) to choose candidates through primaries open to non-members.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has deregistered the Liberal Democrats, belatedly giving effect to legislation passed last year that effectively prohibited minor parties from having the words Liberal or Labor in their names. The party was cleverly able to keep the existing name at the May election after withdrawing its application to change its name to the Liberty Democrats (officially the Liberty and Democracy Party) in late March, which compelled the AEC to initiate a lengthy deregistration process that has only now come to fruition.
• Two days after a Daily Telegraph report suggesting he has designs on Marise Payne’s Senate seat should she soon vacate it, the Milton Ulladulla Times reports Andrew Constance plans to run again in Gilmore at the next federal election, after falling 373 votes short of taking the seat from Labor’s Fiona Phillips in May.
ABC24 cuts away from the Bowen climate action presser to some inconsequential sports story.
Thanks for nothing!
Q: Bloody oath. They talked a big game before the election. They now need to back it up.
Yes, Labor need to fix the cost of living problem before Parliament even sits or they are toast.
The Coalition said they would fix the debt and deficit disaster and have a surplus every year. They talked the big game in 2013. How did that go over 9 years?
Three Indigenous ministers in an Australian Government.
Same Old, Same Old?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/26/the-historic-photo-that-celebrates-a-moment-of-unity-and-pride-in-indigenous-australian-representation
BK @ #51 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 9:23 am
You are kidding. The rugby league thing? Says it all about media and politics, dont it. You would like to think the ABC were above it. Well, next time any ABC journo decries the state of politics in this country and tries to blame all sides of politics for it we have something extra to add to our complaint.
BW: “Those running certain agendas will continue to use the Teals as an entry point. ”
Yes, that too. I was taken by this quote from The New Daily on the Teals, “and whose credibility has not yet been sullied by politics”. Three years is a very long time in politics. Will the Teal Six gel (they outnumber the Greens in the house) or will they drift apart? Van der Waal forces (the agendas) may be in play.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/25/greens-climate-snookered-by-albanese/
EDIT: wrong link, sorry
oops. Wrong link on previous post. This is the right one.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/25/greens-climate-snookered-by-albanese/
The Greens have not yet said in their own words that they will agree to support the Government’s emissions reduction Bill. Until they say otherwise, the odds must be they will not support Labor. They despise Labor and will not want not to concede anything. Labor are putting the question to the Parliament: do they support actions on climate change or not? The Greens will be very sorely tempted to vote Not. That reveals the true story too. They hate Labor more than they want reform on climate policy.
“… Will the Teal Six gel …?”
Isn’t it the Teal 7 – the six that won for the first time in May, plus Steggall?
Boerwar at 9:58 am
To find out you’ll have to drop in to some of those remote places you used to work/live in in a couple of years time and see if it makes any difference.
I yesterday predicted that the first defection in this parliament was going to be one of the far right LNP senators. I would like to adjust this to day as I also predict that Bridget Archer might move to the cross bench and this would make sense.
She comes from a Tasmanian electorate which is smaller than other electorates in the mainland states and clearly has a personal vote. She is more likely to be re-elected as an independent than as a Liberal and is unlikely to be given any significant role in the opposition (which is one of the main advantages of being in a party).
“ The Greens have not yet said in their own words that they will agree to support the Government’s emissions reduction Bill. Until they say otherwise, the odds must be they will not support Labor. They despise Labor and will not want not to concede anything. Labor are putting the question to the Parliament: do they support actions on climate change or not? The Greens will be very sorely tempted to vote Not. That reveals the true story too. They hate Labor more than they want reform on climate policy.”
‘The environment’, ‘climate change’, ‘equality’ etc are mere McGuffins for the Greens.
What they want is for the centre to fail at all costs, heralding a glorious Trotskyist revolution. Marxist electoral theory 101.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-2-0-poses-a-grave-risk-to-the-us-and-australia-20220725-p5b485.html
yep. It makes perfect sense to be hitching our wagon exclusively to WarC@t’s one true love, her North Star, doesn’t it?
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:02 am
‘…
“and whose credibility has not yet been sullied by politics”
…’
Only if you are not looking.
1. Their selection processes were opaque, at best.
2. Their ‘Same Old, Same Old’ line was intellectually corrupt.
2. They squealed like stuck pigs when Albanese removed Morrisonian soft corruption from their staffing levels.
3. They promised the earth. Uncosted and unbudgeted. Populist posturing.
4. Several of them countenanced the thought of doing a deal with what was to become the Dutton Government. Fortunately a Labor majority in the House saved them from aiding and abetting the Corruption of Thieves.
5. They have yet to acknowledge that it is the Labor Government that is making the running on women’s issues, that it is the Labor Government that is finally making progress on climate change and that it is a Labor Government that will implement a FICAC.
6. It is the Labor Government that has brought civility and respectful behaviour back to Australian governance. Not the Teals.
7. I assume Steggall is a Teal? She reckons that Albanese is ‘worse than Morrison’.
Unsullied by politics? Only if you are a journalist totally incapable of holding the Teals to account.
I said after the election that this was the best possible result for the Teals – they did excellently to pick up seats, but the ALP gained government and the Teal HoR MPs won’t likely be crucial votes needed to pass or block legislation or supply confidence. ie they get to position themselves however they like on parliamentary business while never having to take responsibility for anything.
That’s not a criticism of the Teals; just noting that when independents (or 3rd parties for that matter, a la the Democrats) have to take a position that matters on things that they frequently suffer an electoral backlash. Some portion of their voter base will be pissed off one way or the other.
So, for new independent MPs, and/or a new political force (if there is to be any cooperation or caucusing or whatever among the Teals), this is the ideal start to get themselves a foothold in parliament but not to risk being damned by being held responsible for anything much.
As a way of driving reform of conservative politics in this country I wish them all the luck in the world.
A-E
Australia must make moves to a strongly armed defence force and neutrality in national security matters.
The old idea that we could work OK in the space between the two Hegemons – one our economic hegemon and the other our military hegemon – is OBE.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #58 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 10:12 am
If you like. (Seven has too many syllables for my taste. 😉) In my defence, I was led by BW @9:50. Hmm. There’s got to be a joke buried somewhere in the line, “How many Teals does it take to…”
Jan 6s at 10:02 am
For years it has been SOP for “our’ ABC to cut away mid way through pressers and put on some tripe. Meanwhile the Foxtel orcs at the Rupertarium show the full presser AND usually the questions afterwards. Talk about things being back to front. It really stood out like the proverbials during the Rudd/Gillard period.
poroti, I have noticed that SkyNews on youtube is a better way to get more thorough coverage -it comes at a cost to your feed tho (too lazy to do what is needed to hide from it). But the ABC cutting away from an important presser to some culture anger clickbait is not something I was aware of – but I dont watch ABC much anymore.
poroti says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:13 am
‘Boerwar at 9:58 am
Three Indigenous ministers in an Australian Government.
Same Old, Same Old?
To find out you’ll have to drop in to some of those remote places you used to work/live in in a couple of years time and see if it makes any difference.’
——————————————
Perfection is the enemy of the good?
I suspect that you have no idea how important it is for Indigenous kids and their parents to know that there are 11 Indigenous MPs and Senators, that there are three Indigenous ministers, and that Labor intends as a matter of priority to implement the Statement of the Heart.
As for closing the gap, how did the Real Same Old go with that? They cut hundreds of millions from Indigenous funding, disestablished thousands of Indigenous organisations, destroyed homeland centres, and failed miserably on everything except child hood mortality rates. Guess who copped a disproportionate amount of Robocop bastardy?
Did I mention that Labor will double the number of Indigenous rangers from 1,000 to 2,000 and what a profound impact Indigenous rangers are having on themselves, their society and their country?
Will Indigenous women benefit from the raft of a dozen Labor initiatives on women? Absolutely.
Will the systemic problems in places like the Alice improve immediately or anytime soon? Possibly at the margins. It is going to take decades to address those issues. Ken Wyatt demonstrated that being an Indigenous Affairs does not automatically lead to good things for Indigenous people. But at least Burney will be working in a government that means it. No Same Old Same Old about that at all.
Late Riser @ #47 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 9:45 am
The Teals will continue to be relevant as long as climate change continues to accelerate, and Labor’s lack of ambition to address it becomes more obvious.
Sure, some individual Teals will fall short and not get re-elected, but I reckon the next parliament (and perhaps even this one if there is a suitable by-election) will have more Teals, not less.
Is Steggall a Teal?
Would any real Teal ever state that ‘Albanese is worse than Morrison?’
Is Tink a real Teal?
Would a real Teal avow that a non-elected body should be able to remove MPs from their job?
Without wanting to make a meal of it, just what is the Real Teal Deal?
Victoria @ #NaN Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 8:13 am
At last there is movement at the station because the DOJ subpoenas are being passed around! 🙂
Shouldn’t Black Rod be rename in these political correct times?
Maybe just call him Rod?
Your problem Boer is that you still think in terms of hegemony.
We are rooted if we define our defence, trade and foreign policy according to that paradigm.
rather than ‘neutrality’ we need allies. Not just allainces exclusively defined by the interests of those allies. In other words, we need to steer away from a narrow cast gang comprising AUKUS and the QUAD. We need to start from first principles. Our most naturally important potential allies are Indonesia, the PI and then ASEAN countries: folk in OUR region. All of these countries face the same conundrum – being stuck between two superpowers who are leaning into each other. Beyond that, a choice in favour of the post war settlement of western, liberal democratic countries is equally obvious for us, and I’d suggest to a large degree most/all of the local allies I’ve listed above.
However: the obsessions of America, the legitimate concerns of North Asian democracies? In my view those should not dictate our foreign or defence policies. In order to make sure that we have an ‘Australia First’ policy framework we need to increase ‘interoperability’ with France and also Indonesia. This actually should supplement AUKUS/QUAD. But also balance it out. Also gives us a whole series of strategic off ramps if one or more of our AUKUS/QUAD partners (or other partner in the broader allaince, like France if the National Front finally won an election and threw in with Putin) goes rouge.
C@t keeps on making a false point: that I advocate choosing France and/or China above America. I do no such thing. I am about designing a suite of foreign and defence policies that gives us legitimate options if and when any ally or trading partner decides to go their own way. That includes both America if it goes rouge (better than 50% chance of that in the next 20 years, IMO), France and in terms of Trade, China.
The depressing thing about all of this, is the apparent abandonment of all those key partnerships and institutions that we have carefully planted, watered and nurtured for this very moment in geo-political history. 50 years work undone in 5. These are largely labor triumphs. And yet our Labor gal, the WarC@t actually cheers. Facepalm.
Teals?
3% of the House
1% of the Senate
100% noise.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:21 am
Andrew_Earlwood @ #58 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 10:12 am
“… Will the Teal Six gel …?”
Isn’t it the Teal 7 – the six that won for the first time in May, plus Steggall?
If you like. (Seven has too many syllables for my taste. ) In my defence, I was led by BW @9:50. Hmm. There’s got to be a joke buried somewhere in the line, “How many Teals does it take to…”
————-
Steggall doesn’t seem to be generally included as a Teal. She was elected before Teal was a thing. Obviously she shares a lot in common with them, in terms of background and outlook.
The colour of Albo’s tie got a mention yesterday.
He has chosen not red but orange from what I can see.
Boerwars at 10:30 am
LOL “perfection’ . Anything would do.
laughtong at 10:43 am
Albo signalling the Trump supporters ?
They can just be referred to as the Teal Team, that way you don’t have to worry about counting the Teals.
max @ #76 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 10:38 am
Of course Zali Steggal is a Teal …
https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/
laughtong @ #77 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 10:43 am
HE should have worn teal … 🙂
Boerwar @ #75 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 10:34 am
You say that, but you’d much rather have them as allies than enemies, if you’re Labor. ~90 seats with the Coalition and no friends on 58 is a significantly better position than 77 seats with the Coalition and friends on ~70.
The odds of the Coalition clawing back 18 seats in one cycle must be vanishingly small. But send the teals running into their arms with that sort of needlessly dismissive nonsense and the ~8 seats that they’d need to regain power with support from the teals looks a lot more doable.
In short, Coalition bad; therefore teals good. Be friends with your enemy’s enemy. Make the Coalition exist friendless and alone.
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:32 am
Sure, some individual Teals will fall short and not get re-elected, but I reckon the next parliament (and perhaps even this one if there is a suitable by-election) will have more Teals, not less.
———-
It would be delicious if a by election in Cook produced a Teal victory. Not quite the right demographics though
In fact there aren’t all that many seats not already held by Teals with demographics similar to those they won – prosperous/urban/formerly Liberal held.
Bradfield and Higgins are in the same mould – and maybe Teals could expand into urban seats that have some of those demographic features- eg Menzies, McNamara or some current Greens seats.
There’s also the prospect of more rural independents as distinct from Teals, and possibly community independents in the outer burbs a la Dai Le.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:33 am
Your problem Boer is that you still think in terms of hegemony.
…
————————-
We can have a more general discussion but if you do not recognize Xi as a hegemonist then we are probably stuck in the starting gate of the discussion. You believe that hegemonism is irrelevant. I believe we are caught between two hegemons.
You believe that the old order, bilateral and multilateral institutions, relationships, military arrangements, were going to last forever if only we kept watering them assiduously. I believe that it was bound to fall to pieces once China became economically and militarily powerful enough and once China was headed by a militaristic and imperialistic dictator. Xi is shortly up for ‘election’ for his third term as Boss of Everything, and his language and behaviours have remarkably consistent parallels with Hitler – not least of which is the difficulty that the Party and Xi are facing with an economy that is undergoing severe internal strains – on borrowed money.
In terms of economic hegemonic reach and ambition: just ask Philippine banana growers, South Korean tourist operators, Taiwanese pineapple growers, Vietnamese fishers, and Tasmania lobster fishermen. In terms of military hegemonic reach, China is engaging in the largest peace time naval build ever. This is coupled with a root and branch modernisation of the PLA.
IMO, our problem is that our military hegemon is fraying at the edges and is becoming more and more unreliable. Related to that is that we do not have a NATO style agreement with our military hegemon. We are a shag on a rock when it comes to war time help. Worse than that, we keep trying to double up on the favours by going to lost wars on behalf of our military hegemon.
IMO the equilibrium was always going to tilt. I have no problem with that. Historical trends are historical trends.
What I do have a problem with is that we have the worst of both worlds: stuck lockstep with an increasingly erratic ally and stuck with an increasingly hostile relationship with our economic hegemon.
It seems to me that the best long-term solution to this is a strongly armed neutrality. In relation to the latter, I appreciate your posts on defence very much. I would add this. What could we have learned from Afghanistan? It is that we should embed asymmetrical warfare in our deterrence package. We lost that war and we seem to be incapable of learning the central strategic message!
For example it would be dirt cheap to train half a million townsfolk and station hands how to fire a javelin, set an IED, and work a sniper rifle and to set up a thousand weapons and ammo dumps in remote locations.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1551511299682623489
Albo
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Ahead of the CPI tomorrow, the futures market is pricing in a 3.6% peak in the cash rate around Q2 2023… with the hint of a rate cutting cycle by end 2023.
a r says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:50 am
You say that, but you’d much rather have them as allies than enemies, if you’re Labor. ~90 seats with the Coalition and no friends on 58 is a significantly better position than 77 seats with the Coalition and friends on ~70.
—————
a r – didn’t you get the memo?. There’s Labor and there’s Enemies. There is Light and there is Darkness. There is Truth and there is Falsehood. Please don’t mistake this as a forum that embraces diversity of thought.
Labor is gutting the oomph from the Teal Deal.
It is also gutting the Greens’ Same Old Same Old Goebbelsian Lie.
Labor voters who voted tactically for the Teals will, heartened by a real Labor Government doing real good things for real people, will return to the fold.
Labor will also have learned from the sneaky Greens tactics in some of the seats they snigged in the last election: Labor will forget national priorities, and put some more cock choking and Brisbane Airport noise into targeted local election campaigning. That sort of thing.
If there is to be a by-election in the seat of Cook, let’s hope that it can be delayed until the Robodebt Royal Commission can demonstrate what a arsehole the current member is so they might think of voting for an independent.
max says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:56 am
a r says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:50 am
You say that, but you’d much rather have them as allies than enemies, if you’re Labor. ~90 seats with the Coalition and no friends on 58 is a significantly better position than 77 seats with the Coalition and friends on ~70.
—————
a r – didn’t you get the memo?. There’s Labor and there’s Enemies. There is Light and there is Darkness. There is Truth and there is Falsehood. Please don’t mistake this as a forum that embraces diversity of thought.
===========================================
ar – didn’t you get the memo? There’s Greens and there’s Enemies. There is no good in good because there is only the perfect. There is the Same Old and the Same Old and there is the Greens. There is Light and there is Darkness. There is Truth and there is Falsehood. Bandt will stop extinctions by 2030. Bandt’s 75% of 2% will Save the Reef. Labor’s 45% will destroy the Reef. Band will Save the Planet. Please don’t mistake this as a forum that embraces diversity of thought. There is the Greens Way and the Greens Way. Oh. And if you disagree with the Greens you apparently don’t get it all. Because you are not embracing diversity of thought. Four Greens legs good. Two Labor legs bad.
Morrison won Cook with a primary vote of 55.6%. The two minor right wing parties got a further 9.5%.
Total right wing primary vote: 67%.
There was no Teal candidate. The Greens scored 10% of the vote.
There is no particular reason to speculate that Cook would fall in a by-election.
Doesn’t look like either AR or Boerwar got the memo.
Most of the rest of us are sick of the same-same repetition of the same-same points made millions of times already on this site. The ones who aren’t sick of it are the ones who keep doing the same-same shtick.
yabba
Thanks. I thought something was ‘wrong’ with that kestrel until I realized it was not ‘our’ kestrel. Fantastic. The whole flight system is attuned to a single function: keeping the head/eyes absolutely steady for the binocular mouse/lizard searching.
Cook could fall at a by-election if there was an independent with a high enough profile and no ALP candidate. Morrison will have had a significant personal vote and people like the idea of voting for the PM. The turn out in by-election is much lower than in a general election, so there would be a chance that the correct candidate could win particularly if the Liberals pre-select a bad candidate.
”
Jan 6says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 10:02 am
BK @ #51 Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 – 9:23 am
ABC24 cuts away from the Bowen climate action presser to some inconsequential sports story.
Thanks for nothing!
You are kidding. The rugby league thing? Says it all about media and politics, dont it. You would like to think the ABC were above it. Well, next time any ABC journo decries the state of politics in this country and tries to blame all sides of politics for it we have something extra to add to our complaint.
”
It is not our ABC anymore. They are so scarred by LNP governments from 20 of last 26 years that they are experiencing Stockholm syndrome.
Even yesterday, NewsRadio afternoon session started with saying Opposition leader Dutton said…..
BSF
Possibly.
In terms of the ‘prime minister’ effect and Morrison’s personal vote, there was a nine per cent swing against Morrison in the election.
The Senators and MPs are swearing allegiance to Queen Elizabeth ii, her heirs and successors. (I am shaking my head emoji).
TPOF says:
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 11:10 am
Doesn’t look like either AR or Boerwar got the memo.
Most of the rest of us are sick of the same-same repetition of the same-same points made millions of times already on this site. The ones who aren’t sick of it are the ones who keep doing the same-same shtick.
===========================
Nine long years of the ‘Same Old Same Old’ schtick got to you, did it? First the Greens and latterly the Teals with your Greens?
Annoying, was it not?
It would be delicious if Fox have culpability with respect to the voting machine lies
—-
“James Murdoch was recently served a subpoena for documents and a deposition next month. Dominion wants to see communications between him and his father; between him and his brother Lachlan Murdoch…” https://t.co/sp6wftyx00