Essential Research: cost of living (open thread)

The latest fortnightly Essential poll suggests voters won’t be giving the new government much breathing space before holding it responsible for rising inflation.

Still no sign of Newspoll, despite today’s resumption of parliament, nor of voting intention from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll. As reported by The Guardian, the latter turns out to be the most discouraging set of numbers for the Albanese government so far, in that 40% were already prepared to rate the government as doing a poor job on relieving cost of living pressures, compared with 23% for good and 37% for neither. Apart from that, all the unusually spare report from The Guardian has to tell us is that “a majority of respondents believe the Albanese government can influence the direction of inflation and interest rates”, which seems unlikely to bode well. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1082, presumably from Thursday to Monday – the full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.

UPDATE: While “neither good nor poor” responses are high in each case, the poll also finds the government rated good on the pandemic by 36% and poor by 25%; good on education by 35% and poor by 18%; and good on climate change by 33% and poor by 21%. Forty-four per cent supported the government’s carbon emissions target while 40% said it did not go far enough, but no option was provided for those who felt it went too far. Fifty per cent said the Greens should support the government, with a question that emphasised Labor had been elected on that basis, while 25% said they should only do so if Labor agreed to changes consistent with its own policies.

Also of note:

Latika Bourke of the Age/Herald reports that Liberals Andrew Hastie and Simon Birmingham are looking at the example followed by David Cameron after the Conservatives’ 2005 election defeat to improve diversity in the party’s parliamentary ranks, which involved producing a leadership-backed “A-list” of diverse candidates and encouraging local party associations (which lack a clear equivalent in Australian party structures) to choose candidates through primaries open to non-members.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has deregistered the Liberal Democrats, belatedly giving effect to legislation passed last year that effectively prohibited minor parties from having the words Liberal or Labor in their names. The party was cleverly able to keep the existing name at the May election after withdrawing its application to change its name to the Liberty Democrats (officially the Liberty and Democracy Party) in late March, which compelled the AEC to initiate a lengthy deregistration process that has only now come to fruition.

• Two days after a Daily Telegraph report suggesting he has designs on Marise Payne’s Senate seat should she soon vacate it, the Milton Ulladulla Times reports Andrew Constance plans to run again in Gilmore at the next federal election, after falling 373 votes short of taking the seat from Labor’s Fiona Phillips in May.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,429 comments on “Essential Research: cost of living (open thread)”

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  1. McGowan has Dutton pegged. ‘There’s not much there’.

    Dutton’s big play is to peddle a Murdoch agenda to attack the education curriculum.

    He’s just a dull fascist Queensland cop.

  2. nath

    ‘The thesis’ was based on a journalist’s impression of Eichmann on trial, where he came across as boring, ordinary, bureaucratic.

    Eichmann operated within a system, set up by Hitler. Without Hitler, he would have still carried out orders, but they wouldn’t have been of the same type.

    For Eichmann types to do evil, they need someone to give them the orders.

  3. It really is an achievement of the right to get these bog ordinary suburban triers like Morrison and Dutton to the heights they get to.

  4. Arendt’s thesis was not just about the role of bureaucrats acting as cogs in an evil system, but to the nature of ‘evil’ itself. She cited how Hitler’s facial tics were considered comical before coming to power, and that he was an ordinary, dog loving, unintellectual person. No mastermind.

  5. Ayres resigns so what? Lucky some of you ain’t actually in positions to influence things.

    And Dr Holland to lead NSW Labor. You couldn’t make it up. I mean where even does that come from?

  6. Dutton has a few positives in his favour to retain leadership of the federal opposition.
    The first is that Morrison remains as the most likely contender for leadership despite the last disastrous four years and the drubbing at the recent election.
    Its a very poor field!
    Fletcher, Hastie, Hawke, Henderson, Leeser, Ley, Patterson, Taylor, Robert, Sukkar, Tehan and Tudge see themselves as contenders, movers and shakers or whatever.
    Barnaby will put himself forward as an alternative LOP before long.
    The numbers of liberal/national members from Queensland is oddly disproportionate.
    Some of the above are relatively young and have time.
    Dutton and Taylor are the only “bovver boys” in the LNP gang.
    I suspect that Fletcher, with “carbon” Taylor riding shotgun is their re-boot position.
    The Teal women could be influential in the post Dutton leadership.
    A lot of “peri” particular factors will need to form for the once formidable LNP to regain government in 2025 or even 2028!
    The stock whip wielding peri urban cowboy from the shire has deposited a legacy perhaps not as he imagined and hopefully for the liberal party the thirty something percent is a “floor’ never to be lowered.
    A few positives for the current leader Dutton, not so many for the federal liberal party.
    The concept of the Nationals as the senior party not so abstract after all!

  7. Late Riser at 3.34 pm and why Qld, which started well, fell, in Covid management, well behind WA

    What changed in Queensland in January was the huge summer first Omicron wave, allowed in mainly by the fetishisation of the Xmas holidays etc. What had changed from November was the replacement of the very experienced Dr Jeannette Young as CHO, with some delay, by Dr John Gerrard. It may not have been a smooth as silk changeover. From memory I recall somebody else was selected to replace Dr Young, but then they withdraw for personal reasons and Dr Gerrard stepped into the breach. He is eminently qualified and led the medical response to the Covid crisis on the Diamond Princess in Japan early in 2020. Dr Gerrard started in mid-December. Dr Young had been due to retire in July but her term was extended to cover the initial vaccination campaign. There may have been a gap between Dr Young leaving and Dr Gerrard starting, which coincided with the initial spread of Omicron in NSW. As Delta had spread widely to northern NSW (e.g. Moree) in spring 2021, it also got well into Queensland.

    So Dr Gerrard started in the midst of perhaps the biggest infectious disease challenge Queensland had faced, at least in recent decades. Experts may assess his performance subsequently. One thing he told the public early on is that everyone will get Covid, sooner rather than later. It is possible that message was misinterpreted by many in Queensland, and elsewhere, as meaning the pandemic would enter a declining phase, due to an utterly spurious assumption about “herd immunity” (not an assumption made by Dr Gerrard, but a fatuous comfort feeling that many people wanted to see as magically true). There was an article by Raina MacIntyre in the Saturday Paper in autumn debunking assumptions about the pandemic magically being tamed as Covid becomes merely endemic. She and other experts argued all along that vaccination alone was totally inadequate as an effective response to Omicron.

    It will be an interesting topic for comparative study across Australian states, Covid mismanagement. Your questions are pertinent and could be explored further by those with expert knowledge. From an outsider’s view (i.e. from NSW) it seems that care was obviously abandoned once Perrottet let it rip even before Omicron arrived. His decision affected other states fairly quickly, again because of Xmas. The SA CHO Dr Spurrier initially resisted, as of course did WA, but Perrottet made the dominoes fall. (For that he should lose the next election; if only his disdain toward the CHO, Dr Chant, was public.)

    I suspect that, in the context of the summer Omicron wave in January, there was insufficient forward planning about what to prepare for in winter. The pattern overseas has been that Covid waves have rarely been more than 6 months apart. So, was there a decision that targets had been met? I doubt it. The overwhelming focus was probably on riding out the January-February Omicron wave, without enough attention given to the public messaging about Covid that needed reiterating before winter. In other words, it is likely that there was precious little attention given to how to meet targets in winter.

  8. It is always of interest to me to look at a map and see who votes for who

    The voting maps of the USA, Great Britain with the Brexit vote and even Australia with the Queensland LNP are telling

    Visit them


  9. citizensays:
    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:31 pm
    Ch 7 news: The Australian livestock industry has slammed the LNP opposition for creating mass hysteria over foot & mouth. Spokesperson says Australia exports $300m of meat every week and buyers are now querying whether Australia may already have foot & mouth. Another Dutton Disaster™.

    As I posted earlier a LNP Senator demanded in Senate yesterday for the resignation of the Agriculture Minister Mr Watt due to tardy implementation of response to ‘foot and mouth ‘ decease in Australia by the government.

  10. Labour have soared to a 13-point lead in the polls as Conservatives scrap over their future leadership, according to the latest exclusive survey by Savanta for The Independent.

    The advantage recorded by Labour in the poll comes close to its best performance since Sir Keir Starmer became leader in 2019, and would put him on course for a comfortable overall majority in the House of Commons if repeated at the next general election.

    It comes with the government reeling under the impact of the cost of living crisis, with energy bills forecast to soar to as much as £500 a month for some voters and the UK braced for a summer of strikes as workers demand pay rises to match expected inflation of 11 per cent.

    Alarmingly for Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, the candidates to replace Boris Johnson as Tory leader, the prime minister’s resignation seems to have accelerated the Tory plunge in the polls rather than arrested it.

  11. Dr Doolittle:

    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 3:33 pm

    [‘Mavis at 3.04 pm

    A decade of strong activist effort helped to create the eventual 1967 referendum success, led by the indomitable Faith Bandler and her colleagues in FCAATSI, the Federal Council for the Advancement of Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders. A good book on FCAATSI is by Sue Taffe, Black and White Together (2005). A brief background overview of FCAATSI is at:

    https://dictionaryofsydney.org/entry/federal_council_for_the_advancement_of_aborigines_and_torres_strait_islanders

    One might be hopeful about a new referendum to enshrine the Indigenous Voice to Parliament in the Constitution succeeding, but Pat Dodson and other leaders know the political context now is harder than it was in the mid-1960s. There are several aspects to this comparison, including Bandler’s key message in the lead up to the 1967 vote, that “the eyes of the world are on Australia”. A key difference comes down to the political legacy of J.W. Howard, whom Dodson once described to me as a “thug”. If the new referendum succeeds, it will show that Howard’s constraint on Australian history has ended.’]

    Thanks for the additional context. I agree that Howard threw a spanner in the works with his less than subtle racism, homophobia. That said, after the last election it seems to me that a reasonable majority will be amenable to lifting the level of debate, leading hopefully to a third voice. It all depends, I think, on whether Dutton mounts a “No” case, bearing in mind that in ’67, it was almost silent. I’d add that the “Yes” case must have a person who can cut through; I’m thinking of Plibersek or O’Neil.

    ____________________________________________

    Cronus:

    Re. Dear Steelydan.

    I put his views down to being unduly influenced by Jones, Hadley, Murray, and others. He comes here, throws a grenade, then pisses off into the ether. But I must admit, at his age, I too was easily impressed, and that’s the worry.


  12. zoomstersays:
    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:59 pm
    nath

    ‘The thesis’ was based on a journalist’s impression of Eichmann on trial, where he came across as boring, ordinary, bureaucratic.

    Eichmann operated within a system, set up by Hitler. Without Hitler, he would have still carried out orders, but they wouldn’t have been of the same type.

    For Eichmann types to do evil, they need someone to give them the orders.

    Eichmann reminds me one of the public servants retained by Albanese government, who produced report for Albanese government about boat people.

  13. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 4:38 pm
    Watt has learned from the sudden ban on live cattle exports to Indonesia. The universal support from peak industry bodies – traditionally not Labor fan clubs- is particularly telling.
    _____________________
    What would you expect the peak industry bodies to say ?
    Always back self interest, at least you know it’s trying.
    The fact that Albo mentioned that support straight away tells me Labor has not learnt anything from the Rudd/Gillard years in regards to justifying and selling it’s decisions.

  14. The same old, same old, isn’t going to win the Coalition the next election:

    Former home affairs minister Karen Andrews has linked the interception of four asylum seeker boats from Sri Lanka last month to the immigration policies of the new Labor government.

    But missing from the former cabinet minister’s criticism was mention of the ongoing economic and social turmoil in Sri Lanka, a situation the home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, said the government was working to address.

    In June, directly following the 21 May election of the Albanese government, Operation Sovereign Borders said four people-smuggling boats were discovered on their way from Sri Lanka. Andrews said it was the highest monthly total of boat arrivals since 2015.

    In a statement the Australian Border Force said:

    ‘Australian authorities intercepted four maritime people smuggling ventures from Sri Lanka with a total of 125 Sri Lankan nationals on board. All 125 passengers and crew were safely returned to Sri Lanka in close cooperation with the Sri Lankan government.’

    Sri Lanka has experienced months of upheaval and unrest as anti-government protests agitated for the removal of the country’s former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa following economic troubles, a financial crisis, shortages of food, petrol and power.

    Andrews linked the boat arrivals to Labor’s plan to abolish temporary protection visas, which the former Coalition government said was a key component of their border protection strategy.

    She tweeted, “Labor should not be weakening our borders by abolishing temporary protection visas,” accompanied by a video with the caption “keep TPVs, the people smugglers are watching”.

    (Per The Guardian)

  15. Seems Karen Andrews is deliberately baiting the desperate SriLankans to get on a boat.

    Despicable conduct from her.

  16. Re Mavis @7:52. ”It all depends, I think, on whether Dutton mounts a “No” case, bearing in mind that in ’67, it was almost silent.”

    I think that it’s almost a given that the Dutton-led Coalition will oppose it. At the very least there will be a very noisy “No” campaign from the Right of the Liberals and Nationals, the IPA and sections of the media.

  17. At the very lease there will be a very noisy “No” campaign from the Right of the Liberals and Nationals, the IPA and sections of the media.

    The unabashed white supremacist community.

  18. Jacinta Price has already tacitly outlined the ‘No’ case for the Coalition (is it all worth it to get a spot on the Red Leather?). Apparently, practical measures are all that are needed to give Indigenous Australians that feeling of worth and equality with the rest of the community.

    It hasn’t worked since the Intervention of the Howard era but Price is sure the solution can be found without having to adopt the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

  19. Anyway, had a dream last night that Putin was working out of a spare bedroom in my house which he had turned into an office. He was quite demanding and expected Borscht and numerous cups of tea.

  20. Re Rex @8:05/6.

    ”Despicable conduct from [Karen Andrews]”. Agree.
    ”Live animal exports should be abolished.” Agree.

  21. nathsays:
    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 8:18 pm
    Anyway, had a dream last night that Putin was working out of a spare bedroom in my house which he had turned into an office. He was quite demanding and expected Borscht and numerous cups of tea.
    ———————————————-
    Wow and how demanding….
    But borscht is of course considered an aphrodisiac.

  22. Taylormade:

    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 8:00 pm

    [‘The fact that Albo mentioned that support straight away tells me Labor has not learnt anything from the Rudd/Gillard years in regards to justifying and selling it’s decisions.’]

    At least you provide a contra-argument of sorts; but may I say, not a sound one. You are as deplete thereof as Steely, the R/G/R battles – many years ago. Please get with the groove.

  23. Nath ”Anyway, had a dream last night that Putin was working out of a spare bedroom in my house which he had turned into an office. He was quite demanding and expected Borscht and numerous cups of tea.”

    I hope you told him to get stuffed.

  24. Poroti, Jan6

    I got to go aboard and be given a tour of this US boat, USS Barb, when it visited Brisbane in 1977. My uncle was a submariner in the RAN and arranged a tour while it was in town. It was fascinating inside – it felt like a spaceship, crammed with controls and electronics. I was a schoolboy, but it is still a vivid memory.

    Visitors only got shown the front half of the sub. We weren’t let anywhere near the reactor.

    Perhaps that is where my current obsession started 😀

  25. nath:

    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 8:18 pm

    [‘Anyway, had a dream last night that Putin was working out of a spare bedroom in my house which he had turned into an office. He was quite demanding and expected Borscht and numerous cups of tea.’]

    I think, nath, he’d demand more than borscht & a cup of tea.

  26. Overnight some lovely types ripped out lots of copper gas and water pipe from the outside of the township’s Park pavilion. To make matters worse, there are two children’s football matches there tonight and there will be no food able to be cooked and served, robbing the footy club of much needed income and the parents of a feed.
    It just makes us SICK!
    It will cost upwards of $2000 to repair but we will still be up for a substantial insurance claim excess amount.
    Bastards!

  27. Steve777:

    Friday, July 29, 2022 at 8:07 pm

    Re Mavis @7:52. ”It all depends, I think, on whether Dutton mounts a “No” case, bearing in mind that in ’67, it was almost silent.”

    [‘I think that it’s almost a given that the Dutton-led Coalition will oppose it. At the very least there will be a very noisy “No” campaign from the Right of the Liberals and Nationals, the IPA and sections of the media.’]

    Yep, he’ll no doubt take the low road.

  28. ‘practical’ reconciliation was used by Howard to deflect from real reconciliation. At one level, Price is right. There are horrendous real and urgent priorities. The have been loosely formulated into 17 target areas of Closing the Gap.
    There are two points to be made here. The first is that after nine years the Price Team only managed to score gains in 4 out of the 17 areas. This rates as a massive failure at practical reconcliation AS DEFINED BY THE PRICE TEAM.
    The second point is that there is no policy impediment to ‘practical reconciliation’ and implementation of the ‘Statement from the Heart’ happening at the same time. It is just not that difficult.
    Price is, like Wyatt was, part of the problem. Thorpe is not far behind her.

  29. Sorry to hear that BK.

    There were similar crimes with copper in rail projects in the past. There has to be a trade firm or contractor involved. Police should chase whoever is buying it. Still annoying I know.

  30. Red Wall by-election yesterday in the Pilsley & Morton ward of the North East Derbyshire district (the ward is actually part of the Bolsover constituency which went Tory in 2019, rather than the N.E.Derbyshire constituency which went Tory in 2017). Pilsley and Morton are old pit villages although the pits closed way back in the 1960’s, I briefly lived in the adjacent ward in the 1980’s 🙂

    Labour: 806 [65.9%,+34.6%]
    Conservative: 361 [29.5%, -14.4%]
    Green: 34 [2.8%, from nowhere]
    Liberal Democrat: 22 [1.8%, -8.9%]

    Labour HOLD, changes on 2019 election, no Independent candidate

    That’s a superb result, and follows a couple of decent swings in the same district in the last year

  31. The Coalition will oppose the Voice because:

    – The IPA, miners and agribusiness aren’t keen on giving indigenous Australians a louder voice. It might get in the way of making a buck.
    – It provides an opportunity to pursue another front in the Culture War (c.f. the “politicians Republic”).
    – Most people inclined to vote Coalition don’t care about Indigenous affairs. A campaign that pushes the message that the Voice would cost them would help lock in their support. It worked with the carbon price.
    – Product differentiation to attract the racist vote
    – A victory for the Voice would be a big victory for Labor, something that the Coalition would desperately want to prevent.

  32. i think charmers is the strongist performer so far in parliament and in media his seems to hive a cut through with a lynn as clare did in campaign however he has disapeared largily in education its a smart tacdick to remind off mathias cormans gath where he said low wages were a deliberit design feature however he said it hi wages would cause unimployment he might have been a good in geting bills through the senate but he was a bad in media

  33. ‘Jacinta Price happy to sell out her indigenous heritage for the IPA, nice. A real measure of the individual’.

    Why wouldn’t her views be genuine? Surely there can be conservative indigenous people.

  34. Re Ray @8:54. That’s a very small election, even for local Government, a little over 1,200 votes. I expect that local issues would loom big.

  35. its ashame murray watt is not in lower house his labor best attack dog and is doing okay on foot and mouth disease with agriculture being important now due fo fmd would be good to have minister in lower house shortly he could find him a lower house qld seat wong would be good also but does not want to move from senate mckenzey is not doing well in senate qt perhaps labors senit ministers are stronger then house albanese is a bit bland watt and charmers the best performers so farr

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