There is a post below from Adrian Beaumont on the unfolding drama in British politics and another one here relating the last scraps of counting for House of Representatives seats. As for this post:
• Both sides now have their front benches in place, the announcement of the Albanese government’s front bench last Monday resulting in promotion to cabinet rank for Murray Watt and and Clare O’Neil, respective beneficiaries of Left and Right vacancies caused by the electoral defeats of Terri Butler and Kristina Keneally. Anne Aly of the Left and Anika Wells and Kristy McBain of the Right have been promoted to the outer ministry, filling vacancies created by the promotion of Watt and O’Neil and the relegation of Shayne Neumann to the back bench as his Left faction sought to achieve gender balance.
• Peter Dutton’s shadow ministry was unveiled yesterday. The Nationals’ relative electoral success resulted in them gaining a sixth position in cabinet, their new entrants being Susan McDonald in resources and northern Australia, Perin Davey in water and Kevin Hogan in trade and tourism. Seven Liberals won promotion to shadow cabinet: Jane Hume in finance and public service, Andrew Hastie in defence, Julian Leeser in attorney-general and indigenous Australians, Jonathan Duniam in environment, fisheries and forestry, Ted O’Brien in climate change and energy, Michael Sukkar in social services and NDIS and Sarah Henderson in communications. Angus Taylor was rewarded for his record of integrity with Treasury and Alan Tudge is definitely in education now. Stuart Robert (Liberal) and Andrew Gee (Nationals) have been demoted to the outer shadow ministry, Alex Hawke, Linda Reynolds and Melissa Price (Liberal) and Keith Pitt (Nationals) are relegated to the back bench, and Marise Payne is now shadow cabinet secretary after apparently having “asked not to be considered for a prominent role”. Others formerly present and now absent: Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Ken Wyatt and Greg Hunt.
• The Australian reports Scott Morrison is “expected to weigh up his future in the coming months, but is understood to be in no immediate rush to quit politics”.
UPDATE: A discussion of various matters relating to the election between me and Ben Raue of The Tally Room:
AE
At this point I think we are closely aligned. In my view a rational procurement strategy for the ADF is:
Short term (1-5 years)
– select SSN design, upgrade ASC new expanded shipyard to suite construction
– select new SSK design “off the shelf” and buy 6 foreign built SSKs to start building immediately
– LOTE extension on Collins if still required; keeps workers in ASC working
Medium Term (6-15 years)
– build two sub tenders in Perth to operate SSKs from Darwin, Cairns or Brisbane
– start building SSNs in ASC
– Get first foreign SSK, keep building remaining SSKs in Germany/Korea/wherever
– Collins back at sea
Long term (16-30 years)
– get first SSN into service, keep building SSNs
– retire Collins class
– Keep operating new SSKs and first few SSNs
– Build new east coast sub base
Further response to Socrates:
“This would also be far cheaper. For $6 billion we could buy six of any of the classes of SSK being discussed here today – whether Korean or German. Not much more than we have already spent. Then get on with first rebuilding ASC for SSN construction (a big job nobody seems to want to talk about; as though leasing the site is all that needs doing??) and then building SSNs.
I still find a huge disconnect between defence strategists who talk about China and conflict with urgency, or sub operators who talk about the aging of Collins Class with concern, and Defence officials who talk about building SSNs to be delivered till post 2040. They disagree. They can’t all be right.”
_________
Bingo!
Except I’d also ad that given the scale of the task involved in ‘getting ready’ to build SSNs in Australia, AND the fact we have just wasted 13 years on the Sea 1000 program the urgency is such that – even with a purchase of an interim fleet of boats built in either Germany or Korea (for example) – we need to also partner with a SSN provider that can also engage in a concurrent build program – with 2 to 4 SSNs being built ‘there’ for us over the next 15-20 years as we get our ducks in a row to (finally) start bringing Aussie built SSNs into service by 2038 (or more likely from the early 2040s).
BTW – the Korean boats do not IMO look as suitable as the German ones for Australia: I have reread that wiki link that Snappy Tom posted and my view (I won’t bore you all with all of the details) is that they are designed to be used for a specific purpose that is not the same as what we’d want. Korea also seems to have a massive order book that they would have to compromise to start building boats for us in a relevant (ie. interim) time frame. Probably not as much of a problem for the Germans (but I could be wrong about that). While I’m on the subject – the Swedes haven’t built a submarine for over 30 years. It would also take them a long time to spool up their operations for us in a relevant timeframe. So, maybe the Spanish or Italians could build german boats for us under licence if ThyssenKrupp’s boat building hall at Keil is fully booked out.
Rex Douglas, Nothing I’ve seen in his behaviour lets me think he has that ability. The attempted transaction would fail every time.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-communique-indonesia-australia-annual-leaders-meeting
Excellent.
I firmly believe Albanese and Wong will be working on in our region to transition to clean energy where we can greatly benefit.
Just in case everyone here hasn’t chanced upon them, https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/series/edith-pritchett-s-venn-diagrams
a r @ #100 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 8:54 am
You got a couple of gas transport ships handy to ship the gas locally?
Victoria at 10.19 re fatigue…
Offering my experience (I have chronic fatigue, not Covid)…I went to a local doctor for another illness and discovered he is interested in treating cfs.
His first recommendation was taking an antihistamine to calm down my overactive immune system. Within a few days, my energy level improved. After that, he prescribed lots of antibiotics to address infections, and my energy level was hammered! I’m now attempting to recover from the antibiotics!
Short summary: you might consider taking one of those once-a-day antihistamines for a week or two, to see if your fatigue is because your immune system is still amped up from dealing with Covid and can be calmed by the antihistamine.
All the best.
a r at 10:54 am
At the other end are facilities designed to offload and distribute the gas to the customers ,’over East’ not so much.
Perhaps eleventy of these
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #98 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 10:51 am
If there is a government department for short-term thinking, you should apply. You would be a shoo-in.
Final response to Socrates second post above:
“build two sub tenders in Perth to operate SSKs from Darwin, Cairns or Brisbane”
Cairns is not a suitable port for any large naval operation. The navigation channels through the mud banks are extremely narrow and shallow (larger yachts and cruise liners can only get in and out at high tide and one at a time. The race organisers even moved the swim leg of the Cairns Ironman Triathlon from Cairns to Palm Cove because of this problem).
From what I understand (again I could be wrong about this) but Townsville is a much better option – either as a home base or FOB. In my view, if we going down the ‘two fleet’ option the smaller – non oceanic SSK fleet – should be based in either Darwin or Townsville (or elsewhere in Queensland if Townsville is not suitable) with the other location acting as a FOB. The home base can do sustainment (ie. heavy annual maintenance) with the FOB doing just replenishment and inter mission light maintenance. Refuelling depots should also be established at Manus, Xmas Island and perhaps Brunei This way – with a fleet of 6 x smaller SSKs we could have at least two boats ‘on station’ patrolling the seas around the Solomons and around the Bunda straight / northern Indonesian archipelago.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #106 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 10:58 am
Sure. Requisition a subset of the international fleet proportionate to the size of the domestic reserve we’re trying to create.
Or just divert the gas before it’s placed on the ships. Using whatever mechanism gets it there in the first place. Which I assume is just pipelines. I’ve got no shortage of plumbing parts.
Gas
The simple truth is, the gas pipeline is full, we have export terminals and no import terminals.
Everything else is political bullshit.
The question is, why is the pipeline full? Because we are using gas for electricity peakers.
Why are we doing that? Because we have not built non gas electricity peakers ( batteries and hydro etc).
We may now need to extend the life of a few coal fired power stations to give a bit more time to overcome the 10 years the Liberals wasted. That is life, the Liberal’s bullshit has consequences.
AE 10.56
Fully agree. On the Swedes, my understanding is their whole sub industry was disrupted by a foreign buyout of Kockums back in the 90s then lack of work in the 2000s. They want to use a Son of Collins project to get THEM back up to speed. A sucker move for us now.
I wasn’t thinking of the Korean boat with VLS tubes, which I understand is intended for a South Korean nuclear deterrent nobody wants to talk about. So I agree its not what we want. But they have other classes which might do.
The German large SSK looks the best options of long range SSK designs ready to construct.
I agree on the desirability of buying the first two SSNs built in the country of (design) origin if possible, but my understanding is nobody can do that for us quickly. Happy to be wrong.
Fair enough to base subs in Townsville instead of Cairns if the former is unsuitable. The principle is the same. I think the tenders would also be handy either way.
Must do some work, have a good day all.
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 10:34 am
Boerwar
You may be interested in watching this guy’s analysis. His commentary sounds refreshingly ‘just the facts m’am’ . He seems the real deal going by his Wikipedia entry.
Colonel Markus Reisner Austrian historian, army officer , military expert and head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt .
The Battle for Donbass
·Österreichs Bundesheer
5 days ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXhW2Lw‘
=========================================
Thanks. I offered ‘pocket’ for Sievierodonetsk. He offers ‘cauldron’.
Whatever happened to all the Greens posters who droned on about drones and who dissed heavy artillery and tanks?
a r @ #111 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 11:07 am
I am willing to donate a few packets of balloons left over from a children’s birthday party some 20 years ago if that helps.
P1
You are seeing the consequences of gas gas gas that you so supported.
Just as no-one is going to build coal fired power station as they will be stranded assets, no-one is keen to build gas import terminals for the same reason.
10 years of bringing lumps of coal into parliament and gag gas gas bullshit has consequences.
Frednk @ #112 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 11:09 am
Yes, the Liberals lie whereas Labor justifies. Spot the difference.
Boerwar
Cauldron or kettle is what the Russians call ‘pockets’ . As in put the other side in one and boil/cook them
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invincible-class_submarine
Note the similar/ other section
p
Ah. Just so.
I see that Anything But Labor is out for a spew.
OK: one more response to Socrates –
“I agree on the desirability of buying the first two SSNs built in the country of (design) origin if possible, but my understanding is nobody can do that for us quickly. Happy to be wrong.”
America could, if congress sanctioned increasing the build tempo for Virginia class boats from 2 peer year to 3 – even as a short term measure until the production of Columbia Class gets into full swing later this decade.
I also think the French could and I wont repeat what I have written on that subject again, but do refer to to my long post I put up between 9:30 and 10:30 this past Sunday morning on the previous thread.
(But long story short: the French have reduced the build time of their Suffren class down to 7/8 years for the last two boats – apparently; therefore their build hall will start being freed up from about 2024 and they are only going to build 1 to 2 SSBNs per decade until the late 2040s, thereby leaving at least two build slots free for additional Suffrens to be built at any time, starting from the middle of this decade for the next couple of decades).
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/05/24/australia-is-more-divided-than-ever/
Perhaps, for now the Libs lite seem to have 77 seats, the Fibs/ Nats only 58 …
UN sanctioned but ‘provocative’. International thuggery has become China’s norm.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/6/china-accuses-canadian-military-of-provocations-near-north-korea
Snappy tom
I have just taken an antihistamine tablet.
I will let you know how i go. Thanks!
Interesting…
Read on – https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2022/06/06/la-nina-climate-change-australia/
Unfortunately the China side seems to have escalated its aggression against Australia since Albanese’s election.
It has demanded that Australia make the ‘first constructive move’. It has physically threatened an Australian aircraft in international airspace.
It has maintained its 14 Demands which include intolerable abrogations of our sovereign rights.
It has maintained its trade punishment.
Note the bluster in the term’deal with’
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1267316.shtml
Now where would this research be undertaken ? 😆 Yes, you guessed it.
p
Do test.
Get pissed.
Report that the results were confusing.
P1….Labor-phobics in the bush.
Boerwa says 02 at 11:44
Yes, very important to show the results are reproducible. Then of course research needs to be done on whether the vintage , brand or region has an effect on the speed of the bubble . Years of research required.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/world/europe/ukraine-monastery-orthodox-church-russia.html
An interesting read
We Cave Dwellers don’t get to check out BK’s links and newspaper cartoons until long after the T’Othersiders.
I was intrigued by this mornings Cathy Wilcox effort that was presumably published in Costello’s Age and SMH that mocks the MSM’s concentration on the opposition where you would assume in a normal world, a brand new government would receive most media attention.
Although there was no doubt before, Cathy has just confirmed, again, whose side the billionaires media is on. There has to be a royal commission and then new laws about media behaviour and ownership in Australia.
c@t’s wapo link
It’s a good read, well written and easy follow. It contains an alternating timeline of Nixon’s crimes and Trumps ‘crimes’, comparing and contrasting, and an analysis of their similar characters, including shared beliefs that ends justify anything, that fear is power, that hate is fuel, and that enemies are everywhere.
Some quotes along the way that resonated with me:
The mob then went in search of Pence — all to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s victory. Trump did nothing to restrain them. — The man is guilty as hell.
By legal definition this is clearly sedition — conduct, speech or organizing that incites people to rebel against the governing authority of the state. Thus, Trump became the first seditious president in our history. — The man is guilty as hell.
“We are going to kill it in the crib. Kill the Biden presidency in the crib,” Bannon said. — This type of ruthlessness demands a response.
“But wouldn’t it almost be cool to have that power?” asked the president of the United States. “No,” Pence said. “I’m just there to open the envelopes.” — The insurrection only failed because Pence said, No.
Unlike Nixon, Trump accomplished his subversion largely in public. — THIS IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.
These instruments of American democracy finally stopped Nixon dead in his tracks, forcing the only resignation of a president in American history. — They are being relied on today. By necessity. To restore propriety and trust. It’s risky. Failure will be awful.
Never a coherent strategist, Trump can be a powerful propagandist. — Which is why the Jan 6 Committee is doing it’s own theatre.
Rex
If the AMOC runs amok we’re stuffed.
poroti @ #131 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 11:53 am
Ah, but the control group. Who’s going to be volunteered for that?
Boerwar
Not as cactus as the EU and the East Coast of the US of A.
The sub tenders thing is interesting Soc. Something needed i think if we go with expanded subs capability of any sort. Subs are biggly complex systems and the robust, forward maintenance and support of such is something that if not considered can greatly reduce thier value.
Player One @ #109 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 9:06 am
When dealing with an immediate problem you use the tools available now.
Not what might exist in 6 months, next year, or in 10 years time.
You seem to want to jump to the end game where you put in systems to try and stop the problem in the first place.
The Age 07/06
Treasurer says it will be an ‘expensive winter’ due to soaring gas and energy prices.
________________
He might want to go back and double check what he said during the election campaign.
Hold him to account bludgers.
In the interests of clarity, and perhaps a little bragging, the gas situation in the Cave is OK thanks the the preservation policy introduced by Labor Premier Alan Carpenter.
Also someone suggested earlier that northwest gas is piped to Perth only. It is far more comprehensive that that. Check out the map;
https://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Documents/Petroleum/PD-SBD-GEO-103D.pdf
Exactly what did he say Taylomade?
Still waiting for the last governments achievements from Taylormade.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk·
1m
The futures market has a 3.5% cash rate priced in by mid 2023:
That’s 315 bps from where we are now
Taylormerde. Full of it.
The housing bubble is about to burst. So obvious that it was going to happen.
a r @ #111 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 9:07 am
😆
How long will that take?
And the gas pipelines running everywhere just in case.
If not we can build a new one next week.
Everything you talk about is not going to address the problem now.
They’re all medium to long term possibilities, but they are not things the Government can do in the immediate.
That’s what they’re looking at at the moment, once they’ve explored the immediate possibilities then you will see their focus change to the more long term options.
ABCnews Breakfast this morning. Two people in denial, eyes closed, hoping it’s just a nightmare…
steve davis at 12:20 pm
Well there is the contribution to infrastructure and homeless chickens.
Then of course the services to food poisoning.
Hey Barney, are you in Makassar?
Albo coming up today