There is a post below from Adrian Beaumont on the unfolding drama in British politics and another one here relating the last scraps of counting for House of Representatives seats. As for this post:
• Both sides now have their front benches in place, the announcement of the Albanese government’s front bench last Monday resulting in promotion to cabinet rank for Murray Watt and and Clare O’Neil, respective beneficiaries of Left and Right vacancies caused by the electoral defeats of Terri Butler and Kristina Keneally. Anne Aly of the Left and Anika Wells and Kristy McBain of the Right have been promoted to the outer ministry, filling vacancies created by the promotion of Watt and O’Neil and the relegation of Shayne Neumann to the back bench as his Left faction sought to achieve gender balance.
• Peter Dutton’s shadow ministry was unveiled yesterday. The Nationals’ relative electoral success resulted in them gaining a sixth position in cabinet, their new entrants being Susan McDonald in resources and northern Australia, Perin Davey in water and Kevin Hogan in trade and tourism. Seven Liberals won promotion to shadow cabinet: Jane Hume in finance and public service, Andrew Hastie in defence, Julian Leeser in attorney-general and indigenous Australians, Jonathan Duniam in environment, fisheries and forestry, Ted O’Brien in climate change and energy, Michael Sukkar in social services and NDIS and Sarah Henderson in communications. Angus Taylor was rewarded for his record of integrity with Treasury and Alan Tudge is definitely in education now. Stuart Robert (Liberal) and Andrew Gee (Nationals) have been demoted to the outer shadow ministry, Alex Hawke, Linda Reynolds and Melissa Price (Liberal) and Keith Pitt (Nationals) are relegated to the back bench, and Marise Payne is now shadow cabinet secretary after apparently having “asked not to be considered for a prominent role”. Others formerly present and now absent: Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Ken Wyatt and Greg Hunt.
• The Australian reports Scott Morrison is “expected to weigh up his future in the coming months, but is understood to be in no immediate rush to quit politics”.
UPDATE: A discussion of various matters relating to the election between me and Ben Raue of The Tally Room:
Excellent.
How the Taiwan War might accidentally start. Aggressive and bellicose stuff from Xi and the Chicommies. No other word for it:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/06/trudeau-china-aerial-encounter-provocative-jets-canada
Morning all. Thanks BK. Once again Albo is going well in foreign meetings.
Richard Marles full comments on sub delays make more sense. If they are serious about hurrying up the first thing they must do is expand and upgrade ASC to a nuclear engineering standard. It is a 2 to 3 year job, not even budgeted at present. Despite Morrison’s words, the last budget was a stall on defence projects.
Defence should hire the US Electric Boat company to manage the ASC upgrade project. UK MoD did a similar thing. Defence in Canberra don’t have the skills and will delay it for years learning.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/expect-submarine-delays-marles-says-as-he-plans-for-defence-capability-gap-20220606-p5argk.html
Thanks BK.
“ The Australian’s Perry Williams reports that two major gas operators, Shell and the Santos-backed GLNG export venture, have cautioned the Albanese government against intervening in the industry and say it could ruin Australia’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier.”
These corporations really give me the S@#ts, always threatening our governments and by definition the public. It’s high time they were held to account, exposed for their behaviour then put back in their box for their lies and receipt. This issue of national reputation is a ruse and needs to be called out, it’s not like anybody is calling for them to be nationalised. Australians have a right to the first option on their own natural resources.
Rant over.
citizen @ #38 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 8:18 am
I just saw a very good report on ABC from Jane Norman outlining the Australian Govt and business community re-engaging with their Indonesian counterparts to build trade relationships.
The former Govts ideological anti-muslim phobia was so damaging.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 8:08 am
“Mr Joyce is not concerned about current or future ministerial decisions.
He is worried about what ICAC is going to dig up about the last nine years”
I agree entirely. This has nothing to do with democratic norms, he simply fears his actions will catch up him. He’s relying on political protection but I sincerely hope he receives justice.
@EG Theodore from the previous thread last night responding to me:
“218SG will work–and will be ideal due to tropical adaptation–from FOB in Brunei (which will have to be the major RN base in the Pacific per AUKUS) and also (if we can get our act together) possibly from Manus. And even from Singapore…
They need only 28 crew, partly addressing the crewing problem. Unlike Attack and any SSN they don’t need to integrate with USN as the whole point is to operate silently on single boat missions. They are not for protecting surface assets or chasing submarines around the place, but instead for covert surveillance (particularly in littoral waters), in/ex-filtration and both forward and coastal defense.
Someone in the RAN always wants to dick around, so have a plan to get the latter half of them with the vertical airlock to keep such people distracted. Bang!!!
And keep it going – expensive and highly capable SSN plus silent SSK, in the long term built in AU (Korea now has independent design and build capability).”
_________
The 218SG looks to be a beautiful boat. Those capabilities you list are ‘useful’ BUT they are not the main game.
The main game for Australian defence is Sea Denial. More specifically to operate an effective “Anti-Access/Area Denial” network that detects threats whilst they are still in the Northern Hemisphere, tracks their movements and the ultimately engages and destroys said threats if it comes to that on the other side of Indonesia or the Solomons. Such a small boat, even operating from northern FOBs are not ideally suited to that fundamental task, which is truly Oceanic in scale.
That being said, IF Marles wants to buy 3-4 218SGs entirely ‘off the shelf’ I have no objection: provided that they are wholly built in Germany and do not in any way get in the way of building the next generation of Oceanic submarines (whether they be large SSKs as envisaged by Sea 1000, or Nuclear SSNs that we are now supposed to be getting).
Small boats can do useful things in a A2/AD network – either tying up a few of those northern strategic pinch points like the Bunda Straight or, given the legacy of the terrible awful no good government we just kicked out, undertaking localised Sea Denial operations in the Solomons, based out of North Queensland.
But let’s not distract ourselves from the main game, or the fact we already have an A2/AD capability gap that we need to close rapidly over the next 5 years – not in 15-25 years time.
We need strike missiles, by the thousands.
We need an array of platforms to launch these from:
– Upgrading the Hobart class AWDs immediately, plu build another 3 at Osborne, Newcastle and Williamtown asap.
– a large destroyer size max launch platform ship (The USN retiring Tics as an interim, the DDG(X) next decade)
– LRASMs on F18s asap
– NSMs on all our frigates, Arafuras and Hobarts asap
– JSMs in F35s (and when the naval variant is developed replacing the harpoon on our subs)
– Tomahawks or French Naval strike missiles in our existing Collins class subs
– Land based mobile batteries to place Tomahawks in in North Queensland
We need 2-4 Equatorial orbiting surveillance satellites to complement the intel access we apparently have to American Polar orbiting satellites. ASAP.
We need to finalise the last part of our over the horizon JORN radar array (the bit that looks at the Solomon’s, due in 2025).
We need to fast track ultra long range and long range surveillance drones, are need drones and autonomous aircraft (the Ghost bat) and rapidly develop a navalised variant to put on our Canberra Class LHDs alongside small numbers of F35Bs.
THESE are our No.1 priorities.
Cronus says:
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 9:08 am
The gas producers already have a reputation for unreliability – in this market. The resources do not belong to them. They belong to the country. They have a licence to extract them and those licences can be subject to the condition that domestic supply be maintained at reasonable prices. This occurs in WA. There is no reason the same provisions should not apply elsewhere.
UK Cartoons – first 2 after the vote, rest before the vote:
Finally, a special one for Mundo I tells ya!
Yesterday, the seat of Macquarie, which I live in, was declared.
The final result was ALP member Susan Templeman winning by 14,463 votes, achieving a swing of 7.49%. This turns Macquarie from previously the most marginal ALP seat in the country to now a fairly safe Labor seat.
The good burghers of Macquarie thoroughly rejected the Liberal candidate, Sarah Richards, who went out of her way during the campaign to ardently support Scott Morrison. She lost a whopping 14,092 votes this election compared to 2019 when she also ran as the Liberal candidate.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/07/cabinet-and-counter-cabinet/comment-page-2/#comment-3934722
And let’s not forget civilian defence, a la Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, which can have a purpose i/c climate crisis as well, be it flooding, fires, extreme weather …
May be even national service after high school?
Move more of the population away from extended metro.
Cronus @ #53 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 9:08 am
As above, so below:
Dave Gould
@davesgould
Nadine Dorries has just announced that donors have said that they want Boris Johnson to continue and will withhold funding if he’s removed and therefore backbench MPs should listen to them.
Nakedly admitting that the Tory party leadership is in the hands of a few millionaires.
The other BJ, Barnaby Joyce, as the cipher of the multinational resource companies.
KOM,
Was Sister Sarah another Pentecostal Happy Clapper?
Joyce has laid the groundwork for the Lying Reactionaries to oppose Labor in the Senate on an anti-corruption commission. They are already opposed to Labor on climate change/energy policies. They are preparing to combine with the Labor-phobic Green/Apostasy to obstruct Labor’s legislation. They are girding themselves for a re-run of 2009.
The Lying Reactionaries and the Apostasy are on a unity ticket. That ticket is the defeat of Labor.
Ta fer the link to that article on Marles Soc. I reckon from that any path ahead will at least be a reasonably well though out thing.
I’d be looking at starting to ramp up ASC capability and training in the short term via the Collins LOTE program. Replace motors, diesels, batteries (with LIB) as they go into their maintenance cycles and get dissected anyway. That would actually give us a pretty capable SSK going forward and by the time its underway a nice path into something like the oceanic version of the SAAB A26 as an “interim” boat. The Swedes will be involved in Collins LOTE anyway so will have an industrial presence here.
Thing is that a small fleet of capable long range SSK’s is actually a good complement to any nuclear boats we acquire. They have somewhat different missions. I think that many in the US Navy at least well appreciate that. Maybe a viable path is that we have a fleet of 8-12 SSK built here with 4-6 nuke boats built overseas? French or US for nukes if we get them i think.
Dont think running multiple classes of SSK is a problem. Swedes do it and if the classes are “related” i dont think its a big deal.
Frankly, i am a lot more confident that we will get something rational and viable now we have a change in Govt.
C@T
“It’s surrounded by them!”
Noooooooooooooooooo … I mean, Yass, that’s true.
I hope that in the coming DD the Lite/Heresy – the Runaway Liberals co-financed by Climate 200 – run Senate tickets in every State, including especially in NSW and Victoria. They will attract support away from The Apostasy and the Lying Reactionaries, possibly precipitating the formation of a pro-reform majority in the Senate.
The Labor-hostile forces have to be defeated, one way or another.
Well, you could knock me over with a feather! …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-07/gas-crisis-fix-bring-coal-plants-online/101130832
Labor has been in power for less than two weeks, and is either showing their true colours, or showing how gullible they are. Or possibly both.
But of course, “all options are on the table” …
… except this one …
It seems Labor’s first action in office was to order a jumbo-sized “Too Hard” basket. But hey – they got free delivery on Amazon, so that’s ok, right?
Thanks BK.
At least the Canberra Times said what needs to be said…
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7768180/lnp-handballs-electricity-grenade-to-labor/?cs=27763
Cronus @ #54 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 9:08 am
These gas operators fund Labor and the L/NP through political donations.
Conflict of interest …?
“The Australian’s Perry Williams reports that two major gas operators, Shell and the Santos-backed GLNG export venture, have cautioned the Albanese government against intervening in the industry and say it could ruin Australia’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier.”
It’s extraordinarily moving that Shell and Santos are only motivated by a passionate concern for Australia’s “reputation”.
That, undoubtedly, is Australia’s reputation for being a supine pushover among the international energy cartel.
I hope the new Government doesn’t fall for this bullshit.
Rex
Great minds ……
Rakali @ #72 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 9:51 am
The shift in parliamentary balance of power away from the fossil fuel cartel will take positive effect.
A_E at 9.13 re submarines…
There is a larger ‘German technology’ submarine in production right now for Korea (I understand Batch II has 80% Korean content)…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSS-III_submarine#Batch-II
Bigger and slightly longer-ranged than Collins, although not the now-cancelled Attack.
10 vertical launch tubes – and big enough for small (non-nuclear) ballistic missiles.
imacca makes a good point about operating two different SSKs of similar (Swedish) design lineage, but the KSS-III has the virtue of already existing.
Are we committed to extending the life of Collins? Could we pivot to, say, 4 KSS-III Batch IIs as a ‘bridging capability’?
C@tmomm Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 9:38 am re Sarah Richards pentecostal;
Not sure. But I have seen reference to her in a report in The Saturday Paper that she is close to Alex Hawke. That would make her part of the religious right that Hawke heads. Plus she is from the NW part of outer Sydney, which is bible belt country and a Hawke stronghold.
On submarines, briefly, my view is that, since in the long term we are committed to operating SSNs, we should also commit to building SSNs, since we will need to know how to maintain and repair them as well. Every other SSN operator builds them.
Therefore the logical short term solution is to buy the most suitable SSK we can get built for us “off the shelf” (i.e. not built here) and carry on establishing our SSN build capability ASAP. This could allow us to build submarine numbers (and crews) up to 12 SSKs until the Collins class retires, then the extra crews transfer to SSNs as they begin to arrive and Collins retire. So we should NOT try to build two separate classes of submarine here at the same time. SSNs and SSKs do not have much in common.
This would also be far cheaper. For $6 billion we could buy six of any of the classes of SSK being discussed here today – whether Korean or German. Not much more than we have already spent. Then get on with first rebuilding ASC for SSN construction (a big job nobody seems to want to talk about; as though leasing the site is all that needs doing??) and then building SSNs.
I still find a huge disconnect between defence strategists who talk about China and conflict with urgency, or sub operators who talk about the aging of Collins Class with concern, and Defence officials who talk about building SSNs to be delivered till post 2040. They disagree. They can’t all be right.
Yep.
Ronni Salt’s Tweets
Ronni Salt
@RonniSalt
·
2m
Barnaby Joyce has very good reason to fight an anti-corruption commission to his last breath.
One question is whether Putin will declare victory in the Luhansk and Donets Republics if he manages to capture Sievierodonetsk and then seek to freeze the conflict.
In the iterim, the battle for Sievierodonetsk is probably turning into the bloodiest battle to date for Ukraine.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-07/street-fighting-sievierodonetsk-un-warning-human-trafficking/101130924
Vic
How you is? All good?
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 6:32 am
Barnaby Joyce makes the case for not implementing a federal corruption watchdog.
Government ministers have – and must have – the discretion to step outside bureaucratic recommendations and make decisions based on a vision for a greater Australia. It might be a decision based on their political views, or on their compassion, and it might not subscribe to the purity of a business case.
_______________
When I read this I thought it was from The Shovel…… But the Beetrooter really wrote this? FMD!
D
…
I disagree on the IBAC thing. Natural justice is important. If you want to defuse the “kangaroo court!” claims, people need the opportunity to be heard in their own defence before findings are made against them. We can’t shit on the Liberal Party giving the finger to the rule of law when it comes to refugees and environmental protesters (among other) but then be fine about natural justice being torn up in other areas. Redlich’s complaint is that the courts take too long to resolve the legal challenges to IBAC draft reports – then deal with that (perhaps require the Vic supreme court to have a high-priority IBAC list, and also give the court extra funding and staffing so this doesn’t delay the rest of the Court’s work).
“Ugh, it takes too long to deal with court challenges so let’s take away the right to appeal to a court” is a bad precedent.
Boerwar
Still a little fatigued. But generally good. Thanks.
We are having a very wintry spell in my part of world. So it suits me to be snuggled up and indoors. Lol!
Joyce is self-evidently right that Ministers can’t be bound in general to follow the advice of their department or specific advisors. They CAN however be bound to follow processes that are the law such as the Immigration Minister needing to follow certain legal processes to boot someone from the country and not just randomly punting people because they feel like it.
A political decision to spend money on X is a political decision, unless there is evidence it was done for a corrupt reason (such as an undeclared conflict of interest).
If there’s a grant program with defined rules, and a Minister breaks those rules for their own benefit or perceived benefit, that’s not on. (this is the sports rorts example).
”
King OMalleysays:
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 10:02 am
C@tmomm Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 9:38 am re Sarah Richards pentecostal;
Not sure. But I have seen reference to her in a report in The Saturday Paper that she is close to Alex Hawke. That would make her part of the religious right that Hawke heads. Plus she is from the NW part of outer Sydney, which is bible belt country and a Hawke stronghold.
”
Not sure about ‘NW part of outer Sydney, which is bible belt country, being a Hawke stronghold.” because there were reports that if he stood for pre-selection for the seat of Mitchell (which he didn’t) he would have lost it. That is the reason why he did not attend any pre-selection meetings with NSW Liberals State executive as a NSW rep of PM. IN the end he is one of the 12 hand-picked candidates of Morrison for Federal election.
This Morning’s Scroll By
On Today’s Theme
Today’s theme appears to be “Spy Vs Spy”. It’s a comic I never read, but the artwork was hard to ignore.
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/ComicStrip/SpyVsSpy
On our FDPM
I would not underestimate Barnaby Joyce’s intelligence. Anyone who can come up with a description of our most recent former PM as someone who “earnestly rearranges the truth” deserves intellectual respect. His morals are another matter entirely. His divide and conquer tactics are nakedly obvious. And he’s building his political defence for when ICAC comes calling. (And in the Senate, as pointed out by others.)
On US gun violence
The Uvalde murders will increase the number of assault weapons in circulation. Theatre is noise.
On Jan 6 Committee hearings
It’s gunna be naked politics. Here’s hoping the mortar holds the bricks together.
On ICACs
My view is that we need a federal ICAC to restore trust. Without it we continue to build on sand. (Image of strong foundations reaching to bedrock)
On the UK PM
You may enjoy this February performance by Jonathan Pie.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/opinion/boris-johnson-party-scandal.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DPDm4eiOMNAo6B_EGKb615ZsB23TObQsRGNvo3TeZu36pENEVrRwCs5JuYnZBPawMElbWOZEJklZTcQeJ_tjbwcmiyLOo4mObg40_YYGL1WqSI02kmIw02vcM0cAq1jiEOz6bOR-V02YF0zu5hUs4hPUoIZCSPuvDoAxt6KY_GOkmasl9qLrkfDTLDntec6KYCdxFQDz_ETXB852U84bBMKY9dffa_f1N7Jp2I0fhGAXdoLYypG5Q0W4HR8rxourbIoheGo9GkrOZHRlINPvNLgOuiCoEnzQ&smid=url-share
On riding a bike
The faster you go the easier it is. The physics of it are profound. (Which is another way of saying, I don’t get it, but it seems to be true.)
On big companies (Shell, etc)
They rely on us, perhaps they need a reminder.
(And thanks c@t for the WaPost article. Saved for later.)
Boerwar
You may be interested in watching this guy’s analysis. His commentary sounds refreshingly ‘just the facts m’am’ . He seems the real deal going by his Wikipedia entry.
Colonel Markus Reisner Austrian historian, army officer , military expert and head of the research and development department at the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXhW2Lw
I give Chalmers credit for articulating better than most could about the binfire Frydenberg left and the slow painfully difficult recovery road ahead.
Jim Chalmers
“The trigger] is about making sure that we can intervene in gas markets to make enough of it here. The issue with the gas trigger, unfortunately, is even if we were to pull the trigger today, it would (not?) come into effect until the beginning of next year, so again, not a quick fix.”
———-
Why not do it to keep the domestic price lower in the medium and long term and give security to manufacturing jobs and, at the same time, look for those “quick fixes” for immediate impact?
It seems, when the environment changes, everyone must bear the costs with crippling energy prices, job losses etc as long as the multinational companies’ super profits are not effected!!
Ven
From her web site
.
Hi Socrates. Re this from your earlier post:
“Therefore the logical short term solution is to buy the most suitable SSK we can get built for us “off the shelf” (i.e. not built here) and carry on establishing our SSN build capability ASAP. ”
This sentence is probably totally correct, but it also demonstrates what a (not so) useful idiot former Rex Patrick is. His concept of ‘off the shelf’ includes modifying the design AND then … building them in Adelaide. Which would be fine, if one accepts that proposal is not, by definition ‘off the shelf’, and are prepared to accept a further delay of up to 5 years for said modification to be incorporated into the existing design AND are prepared to not start building a single ‘long term’ next generation sub (whether that be an oceanic SSK or nuclear boat) in Australia until at least 2035. If not much later.
This whole debate needs some clarity that has been sorely missing since … 2012 … when Gillard and Swan conspired to kick the next phase of Sea 1000 into the long grass in pursuit of that ever illusory budget surplus. That’s even before once considers the awful no good terrible government we just kicked out of office.
Thanks WB for this.
Even for a soul like his he’s probably adjusting to the trauma and struggling with the idea of what to do next. I reckon he’s going to be a backbencher for a while, until he follows Abbott. The better Albanese does, the worse it will be for Mr Morrison.
imacca, AE
This is not to disagree with either of your points, or the need for urgency, but there may be other options to help with sea denial in term,s of time at sea until we get SSNs in operation.
One idea used by many navies is submarine tenders capable of repairing, refueling and reequipping submarines away from formal sub bases. These are not expensive relative to the cost of subs (under $1 billion each) and not complex, so could be built locally. With one of these we could base some of the smaller German or Korean design SSKs in ports like Darwin or Cairns, from where they could reach the South China Sea or Solomon Islands much more effectively.
This link is to a French example. We could easily build this kind of ship locally (Perth?). Or ordering one off the French might help sooth feelings too. To me such ships (one on each coast) would be useful no matter which way the RAN sub fleet goes.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/french-navy-loire-class-ships-now-certified-for-nato-submarine-rescue-system/
Late Riser @ #92 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 10:41 am
Free advice to Morrison –
Get out of bed, go into your local office, pick up the phone when it rings and help your local constituents. A very gratifying experience you’ll find.
Late Riser
It would be quite an adjustment for him to go from cock of the walk , ‘waited on hand and foot and treated deferentially ( To his face 🙂 ) to being a
Added to that given, as one Liberal called it, visceral hate for what’s his name out among the punterd the Libs might just class him as ‘He who shall not be named’.
Ven Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 10:31 am
OK things may have changed. I recall Alex Hawke originally made a name for himself stacking Lib branches in the Hills District (outer NW Sydney), which is Hillsong country.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.7pts to 87 this week to its lowest since mid-August 2020. Consumer Confidence is now a significant 23.7pts below the same week a year ago, June 5/6, 2021 (110.7) and is now 8.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 95.8.
On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but up in South Australia. Looking at the indicators confidence about the Australian economy deteriorated in regards to both the next year and next five years.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8995-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-june-7-202206060631
Rex Douglas at 10:45 am
The best advice would be the simple word ‘Resign’ .
Player One @ #68 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 7:45 am
More probably it shows you can’t discriminate between a short term and a long term problem.
Well considering most of the gas on the the East coast goes straight to export terminals, there’s possibly a little issue of connecting it into the domestic distribution network which consists of multiple centres as opposed to just Perth.
I think that Scott Morrison is waiting around to see how things go. If by early next year a triumphant return very looks unlikely, either because Labor is doing very well and seems to be entrenched, or he believes that he can’t depose Dutton he’ll decide that he wants to spend more time with his family.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #98 Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 – 10:51 am
So we’ve figured out how to move it halfway across the world, but local distribution is just too hard?