The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BiJKq7ynms
I think we can manage without him.
“Notahorse: Does anyone know what the preferred PM polls were this time in 2019?”
Shorten trailed.
nath @ #97 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:33 pm
Vic Labors 2nd greatest asset
The barest possibly TPP figure to win 76 seats in theory is 23.6% (that is a barest majority in the 76 smallest electorates and not a vote anywhere else). Of course we live in the really world and not some fictional world where one can win office get millions of votes less than the other side (we are not America).
[Newspoll was 50.5% in favour of the coalition on the eve of the 1993 election.]
WHY THE HELL IS DANIEL LYING TO EVERYONE?
SA Bludger @ #53 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:21 pm
There, fixed it. 😀
Ms Markson didn’t say which marginals, did she?
[Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”.]
A great summary of the Liberal’s born to rule attitude.
If the lib/nats are booted out tomorrow night , will there be a mandatory screamer who screams during the leader’s concession speech.
“…to hear the lamentation of their (insert preferred gender)folk…….” This is good.
The guy who challenged Frydenberg’s nationality – and now faces a costs order after losing? Reckon there’s any chance Labor will give him an act of grace payment?
Eden-Monaro or Greenway could be a shock Liberal gain, there is no movement to Labor.
ShowsOn says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:36 pm
[Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”.]
A great summary of the Liberal’s born to rule attitude.
____________
I think it more a sentiment that one person is more deserving of the privilege than others. Frankly, you could replace the entire 150 person House with another set of people and it would produce the same results.
For every one who claims to have the good oil or the inside drop – time to have a chill pill.Doesn’t happen that way , important as being in the “ know” might be to our egos.
The broad polls are indicative and useful ,but the parties nightly tracking polls that cover 20-25 seats are the only real deal.My well educated guess is that no one on this site is privy to those results.Those that know don’t say!!
Only 2 rules – follow the leaders and follow the money.
We will all be out of our misery tomorrow night.
Re Christopher Pyne’s comments (which were on The Drum)
Offered the chance to nominate a single “campaign moment”, Pyne named Morrison’s crash
tackle of the 8-year-old soccer player, which was then, of course, played in all its glory (to the Vangelis Chariots of Fire music, in honour of the recently departed composer).
Struck me as passing weird that a person who is notionally hoping for an LNP victory would remind everyone of this moment on election eve.
(Pyne’s opposite number Craig Emerson nominated Albanese deploying the one dollar coin in his prosecution of the minimum wage increase.)
“Ms Markson didn’t say which marginals, did she?”
Since when has anyone believed anything that Markson thing says??
Krogs was trying to mask his dismay
For Late Riser’s consideration, my predictions:
Seats:
ALP 81, LNP 61, GRN 1, CA 1, KAP 1, IND 6
IND (Teal) gains: Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth
TPP ALP: 52.9 LNP 47.1
PV: ALP 36.3 LNP 35.2 GRN 11.1 ONP 3.9 OTH 13.5
Mrs Avenger and I are going to a long-expected party on Saturday evening. It was arranged before the election date, but will fortunately also work as an election night celebration – hopefully the result will call for some of the sparkly vino later in the evening.
@Bree – I live in The Hunter and you’re wrong. Labor might be a bit dodgy in Singleton and Muswellbrook but not in the greater hunter area. Patterson has a lot of development happening with people from Newcastle with young families out there. Labor aren’t what they once were in The Hunter but they’re not toxic.
Yes, thank you William (donated.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_ndC07C2qw
“Des Devlinsays:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:02 pm
All those Antivaxxer Freedumb warriors voting for home loans capped at 3% are a bit of a worry. Those preferences are going straight to the LNP like they did last time. Palmer is spending 70 million to get the LNP re-elected.”
I am afraid (glad) that Palmer will have to add $70 Mill to his current losses… Without the Libs in government he will never recoup the money…. But hey, he may ask for help to Mark McGowan…. Ha, ha…
“Notahorse: Does anyone know what the preferred PM polls were this time in 2019?”
Shorten trailed.
Thanks SA Bludger. That seems significant.
imacca @ #114 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:39 pm
It was a rhetorical question to which I knew the answer. 😉
Bree: “Eden-Monaro or Greenway could be a shock Liberal gain”
That much is true. LOL
Well, I am going to sleep comfortably tonight. I have just stood up the 1983 Gould Campbell VP ready for decanting tomorrow about midday after my return from doing my democratic duty.
I shall thoroughly enjoy watching a most entertaining game of dominos tomorrow evening 🙂
Exactly @imacca – why ANYONE would treat anything Markson has to say with anything but total dismissal is beyond me – unless they’re looking for reasons to worry.
I’m reasonably certain you could scrape together a half decent Cabinet on PB. As long as Lars and I held the key portfolios.
Lars Von Trier,
I wonder if anyone’s claimed their stack of cash from that western Australian liberal who had to leave under s44.
It’s a section that needs reform, though I don’t mind the citizenship stuff. We should simply it to be, once you become an MP, you shouldn’t be able to hold another nationality again. Makes it simple. Swear allegiance and your locked in. 😀
My prediction which i hope is an under estimate, 80 Flat for the ALP, 5-ish Teals, Wilkie, Bandt, Katter, and then between 55-60 lnp. With a lot of them retiring within the next 6 months.
Ask yourself this, if the ALP demolish the libs, WHO will be the person who unites the LNP and builds back. Especially if F-Berg gets the kick.
“Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:38 pm
The guy who challenged Frydenberg’s nationality – and now faces a costs order after losing? Reckon there’s any chance Labor will give him an act of grace payment?”…
That’s not what Frydenberg is worried about at the moment, he is becoming very concerned about getting a new job…. One in the morning, one in the afternoon, applying for jobs will make Joshy stronger….
@ Bree
Eden Monaro a Liberal gain? I don’t think so.
This is the narrative that the RW are pushing – if Labor wins it will have very little legitimacy as the primary vote is so low. Of course if the Liberals win there will be no mention of their primary vote as they are *obviously* the natural party of government.
We (mostly) all suspect the polls and the aggregators are overestimating the ALPs 2PP. Imagine, tho, if they are underestimating it? Maybe enough Liberal voter rust is flaking ALP off via independents, and maybe a bunch of PHON and UAP voters who preferenced Morrison last time are shifting. A major change in preferrence behaviour from last election might produce a shock ALP 2PP lead.
Or not.
In 1993 the 3rd voice vote was only a sapling. 10.8% of total PVs cast. It was a sight easier to measure the shifts in intention.
Bree @ #106 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:38 pm
Can I take from the fact that you think two marginal Labor seats being picked up by the Liberals would be a “shock result” that you now accept that Labor’s going to win the election?
nath says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”
Ask yourself this, if the ALP demolish the libs, WHO will be the person who unites the LNP and builds back. Especially if F-Berg gets the kick.
中华人民共和国
By-Election in Cook in 6 months with John Winston Howard as the candidate.
Beazley ALP “won” the election eve Newspoll 53-47 in 1998 they have been off the mark quite a few times actually , 1993 2001 and 2004 they missed the 2pp by more than 2 in their election eve poll, it’s all a bit hit and miss with polling.
The Tories one chance is a repeat of 1998. Final newspoll 47-53 ends up 49-51 swing for Labor gets wasted in safe inner city seats and leafy suburb seats where they go close but fall short.
Tories flip some seats like say Blair, Macquarie and Hunter and manage to hang on.I couldn’t back the Tories though they are too short but I wouldn’t die of shock if they held on and if they do the above is how it will unfold.
citizen ,
ALbo should seriously consider a RC into the murdoch press if there’s even a hint of that bullshit election legitimacy issues.
You just know someones going to have a fantasy about a stolen / lost vote because of the phone voting tomorrow.
Whatever, I’ll believe nothing except the actual results tallied by the AEC.
nath @ #125 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:42 pm
What? Key to the bathroom? 😐
Caroline jones has died.
A legend in her own lifetime at the ABC.
Cant help wonder what she makes of the current lot.
Pref flows will shift in the same direction as PVs. Labor’s PV appears to have recovered from 33% to 36%. There is no reason to suppose their share of prefs will not also increase in a similar fashion.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:48 pm
nath @ #125 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:42 pm
I’m reasonably certain you could scrape together a half decent Cabinet on PB. As long as Lars and I held the key portfolios.
What? Key to the bathroom?
中华人民共和国
Mundo for PM!
Elections Newspoll called wrong. 2019, 2004, 1998 and 1993.
3 out of the 4 were called wrong for Labor plus they called 1993 wrongly in favour of Hewson’s Coalition rather than Keating Labor
Surprised to see the odds haven’t shifted further back to Labor with the release of ipsos and newspoll.
Sportsbet
ALP $1.48
Coaliton $2.80
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/obituary-remembering-caroline-jones/100390820
Sorry C@t, you don’t get a seat. OC does however.
My head says a Labor majority from the latest numbers.
80-85 seats.
My heart says, get used to the ongoing disappointment of that around three quarters of my adult life has been under conservative rule and that will continue.
A friend of mine posted something on Facebook asking for people to vote with his 18 month daughters best interest at the forefront of their mind. He said vote greens in both houses 🙂
I told him me and my daughter (11 months today) will split the difference. I’ll vote greens in the senate but not in the house of reps.
My hope is Labor get a majority in the reps and that Labor and Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate.
The Greens are absolute plonkers when it comes to defence but I want them at the table for climate change negotiations. I know that’s a horror scenario for some of the most verbose PB’s.
Have a good night everyone.*
*Have a listen to Killling Joke’s “Another Bloody Election” for some post punk awesomeness too. I always do just before voting.
‘Sharri Markson says Liberal internal polling has their primary in marginals at 40%, and Labor is in the 20s in QLD.’
Could be true but there is a lot of flotsam and jetsam in Qld to get the ALP into a mid 40s 2pp and win a couple of seats.
Bludging says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Pref flows will shift in the same direction as PVs. Labor’s PV appears to have recovered from 33% to 36%. There is no reason to suppose their share of prefs will not also increase in a similar fashion.
中华人民共和国
+1
If tomorrow does spell the end of the Scomotocracy in Australia, whilst lacking in achievements, I hope he will be remembered for his wisdom and statesmanlike behaviour in office.
Jesus himself would have a hard time uniting the Coalition and pulling it back together as the PPF [Pentecostal Peoples Front} if they lose this election and Joshy Boy gets rolled.