The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
All the best to the Good Guys for tomorrow 🙂
And big respect to those doing Polling Station duty
I’m hoping to catch the early returns live, when I get home from the night shift
A 5% swing from bludgertrack and Antony Green’s electoral pendulum suggests 16 seats from the coalition to ALP & teals.
https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/FED2022-PostRedistributionPendulum.pdf
That’s a good final poll, particularly the Better PM and net sats. Morrison is just about cooked.
In 24 hours we’ll have a pretty good idea of things.
Good luck all!
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:55 pm
All the best to the Good Guys for tomorrow
And big respect to those doing Polling Station duty
I’m hoping to catch the early returns live, when I get home from the night shift
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber. Hope Australia tomorrow and then you blokes get rid of the Tories next!
One Can only hope this is replicated tomorrow
Interestingly when the TPP started to go against the LNP in Newspoll, the emphasis was shifted by them to concentrate on the PPM metric…..Even though it has been pointed out the the PPM figure is not such a good guide the Australian stuck with it.
Now, in the last Newpoll for the election, both Morrison and Albanese are neck-a-neck while Albanese is actually ahead in this metric on one of the other polls.
After a six week Federal Election campaign, Newspoll 2PP is exactly where it was when the campaign was launched, and hasn’t moved much at all throughout. The ALP has only once, since 1949, received 53% or a higher 2PP (53.23% – 1983). In 2007 it was 52.7%.
Will be out all day working on breaking another block out of the dark green wall in victoria, all going well north-central Victoria will also have a nice big grey block in it next to its northeastern neighbour.
All those Antivaxxer Freedumb warriors voting for home loans capped at 3% are a bit of a worry. Those preferences are going straight to the LNP like they did last time. Palmer is spending 70 million to get the LNP re-elected.
Sales not happy. 🙂 The look on her face as she signed off from that is quite telling.
Lachlan says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:01 pm
Will be out all day working on breaking another block out of the dark green wall in victoria, all going well north-central Victoria will also have a nice big grey block in it next to its northeastern neighbour.
_____
All hail the Independent Kingdom of Northern Victoria.
Following the herd?
Des Devlin
#Notallpreferences
Morrison didnt honour his apperances on 730 as usual.
“All those Antivaxxer Freedumb warriors voting for home loans capped at 3% are a bit of a worry.”
Yes….i am sure some of them use the same roads as me. 🙁
Can someone remind me when we will first start getting meaningful results tomorrow?
I’m sure I’m not the only progressive planning on maintaining a steady 0.03-0.05 blood alcohol level between now and then for nerves.
Lachlan
Good luck – we know the region well. They voted Independent in the State election – let’s hope it happens federally tomorrow.
Huge sigh of relief! But the ghosts of 2019 still haunt me…
I’m on booth roster all day tomorrow in Lilley. God I hope Australia wants to kick this mob out!
Early for Newspoll. Any ideas why?
Hopefully we’ll have a big orange party on national television tomorrow night, though I suspect we probably won’t know the result here for a while, it’ll be bloody tight.
As I said at the end of the previous thread, Newspoll would have to be a long way out for it not ot be a Labor majority governmetn from here.
Even then, it will be a Labor minority government, since the Liberals have declared war on the Teals.
Newspoll looking good.
Speaking of good, I don’t know if this seat poll from Pearce has been mentioned. The commentary is from Kevin Bonham today:
“YouGov Pearce: Just when I was saying there were no real pollsters in the lagoon, along comes YouGov with a 53-47 to Labor in Pearce, off raw primaries reported as Labor 43 Liberal 40 Green 4 UAP 2 One Nation 1 and 5 undecided. This would be a big increase in the combined major party primary which would be surprising in that One Nation got 8% there last time (but its vote has crashed since in the WA state election). These YouGov seat polls use targeted telephone polling with sample sizes in the 400s but using careful respondent selection to avoid the reweighting problems with seat robopolls. They have had a decent record so far.”
Paul Murray exasperatedly PLEADING for disaffected LNP voters to vote for them this time, and then if they don’t improve next time then they can vote for a minor party.
He looks like he’s about to explode.
Do we know for a fact that any/all of newspoll/Morgan/Ipsos have actually adjusted their methodology after last election? Is there a legit chance that they are actually underestimating the Labor vote? Or is that optimism?
Patrick Bateman
Paradoxically I think some of the “Teal” seats may be the most obvious early changes – especially Goldstein. If Wilson is on 40% or less and Daniel, Labor and the Greens total 45% he’s gone.
The preview of the election night set at the ABC makes that the pick for following the results tomorrow night.
Listening to Simon Birmingham on 730 right now and knowing he’ll be on the panel however…
If UAP are getting anything like that speculated at the end of the previous thread it could be bad news in the Senate. Although, if they end up with any Senators, I’m not sure how many will stick with the party.
Don invited me to an election night party tomorrow
I’ve politely declined….
@ShaneB – I hope you’re right.
Should be pointed out that on the same Newspoll error as 2019 would actually be Labor 50% Coalition 50%.
Remember their final poll in 2019 was Labor 51.5% Coalition 48.5%. Note too Morrison and Albanese tied for preferred PM
Not much more to be said for the time being I guess….
My hope is that Labor gets to govern it is own right with a working majority of say 6…
I am not a great believer parties do well when they have huge majorities as these are hard to manage The old saying….”My opponents are over there, but my enemies sit behind me” is still true.
A couple of other things on my wish list -if it comes to fruition – is the Labor is not so quick to hand out “goodies” to political foes – a mistake in the Rudd-Gillard era…..Nothing ever comes back the other way.
The second is that, and following from the above, Albanese ensures his tenure sets the ground work for a second tenure 3 years from now…..
Labor’s political enemies have taken great delight in taunting Labor over the fact that they have not held office for 9 years and not many times since WW2….
This means the Labor side has to show discipline and genuinely work for the future…..Is also means that the ambitious ones in Labor need to learn how not to self-destruct in office…
Getting rid of a shonky government and its leader is one thing, making a go of on-going government in coming difficult times is another……….
Warning in advance: if Sturt looks like falling tomorrow night there may be some quite drunken celebratory comments from this philosophical psephologist.
Patrick Bateman says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:08 pm
Do we know for a fact that any/all of newspoll/Morgan/Ipsos have actually adjusted their methodology after last election? Is there a legit chance that they are actually underestimating the Labor vote? Or is that optimism?
————
There’s a podcast on the Tally Room website about the Australian Polling Council where Newspoll and Ipsos representatives talk about how they’ve changed their methodology since 2019 and why.
Early for newspoll : Probably to aid as a rally cry for the quiet Australians.
But with such a huge prepoll I’m pretty sure it’s too late for the LNP
I’ll be starting the day in Maribyrnong setting up a booth for the ALP, then moving onto Chisholm in the arvo. Good luck and good on you to everyone volunteering, go well
Also, good to see a jump in netsat for Albo
Working tomorrow at Grange Polling station (seat of Hindmarsh) and so I’ll go into blackout and watch when I get home.
SA Bludger says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:08 pm
“Paul Murray exasperatedly PLEADING for disaffected LNP voters to vote for them this time, and then if they don’t improve next time then they can vote for a minor party.
He looks like he’s about to explode.”
That would be a pity. Not.
SA Bludger
He should be happy, if libs lose he can spend the next 3 years bitching about Labor.
No wait, THAT’S ALL THE ####’S DONE THE ENTIRE TIME ANYWAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
53-47 is pretty much bang on with most of the predictions I’ve seen.
Bring on tomorrow and finally an end to this forever election campaign!
Prepolling today in the only 2 Swan booths. Pollies there in force. Some People , bizarrely, needed to be told McGowan and Albenese were in the same party and a vote for a change of government would not kick McGowan out. A lot of workers going down the long waiting lines talking and giving people some basic facts.
Very aggressive Palmer workers grabbing people and subjecting them to a huge anti , McGowan , anti Vaxer spiel.
No rest for the wicked tomorrow as short on workers due to Covid..
Good luck for tomorrow to all the erudite bludgers here. Cheers.
How funny is Paul Murray. Not sure why he thinks talking about Wong is a good way to hurt Labor. He better hope no wavering Liberal women are watching!
Socrates, the dream is that SA can deliver Boothby and Sturt…
ShaneB @ #37 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:14 pm
Too right
With regards to the Pollbludger state by state swings, does anyone really believe that there has been a swing of 9.1% towards Labor in Qld since the 2019 election??
That would seem pretty incredible to me, happy to be wrong, but can’t say I’m ‘feeling’ it here TBH.
My greatest wish is to see the end of “the beetrooter’ a blight on Australian politics.
I won’t repost it here, but if you’re interested in Campbells Wines and/or fortified wine crocks:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/19/ipsos-53-47-to-labor/comment-page-37/#comment-3914971
I wonder how many Liberal Ministers, MPs and staffers are purging hard drives tonight?
I have never seen a more corrupt government in terms of dubious processes involving astronomical sums. I have no direct evidence of any particular funding decision or individual being corrupt.
However, if I were an incoming Labor AG, as soon as I had legislation for a Federal ICAC passed, I would be auditing every major defence and infrastructure project for the past nine years. So many eggregious conflicts of interest have been reported. I would be amazed if all were legal.
Best wishes and a big vote of appreciation to all the foot soldiers of democracy who will be in the trenches tomorrow.
It was 51.5 to 48.5 in 2019 so if this poll in remotely accurate you would have to think a small Labor majority would ensue. The Oz as usual is backing Morrison but to me this Coalition government reminds me of Fraser’s third term and to a fair degree Howard’s fourth term in that their only line is to vote for us because we’re not as bad as the other mob. I hope a Labor majority happens but I still view a hung parliament as likely. I think the teals will pinch 2 or 3 seats off moderate Liberals and the Greens will go close in Ryan.
Is Don. Is good.