The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
“This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. ”
C’mon William, if it’s 53.5% ALP tomorrow, promise to join a Buddhist monastery in Nepal….
🙂
Murray is the worst bias Lib on TV. Hes permanently up Morrisons arse wherever he goes. The only punters who watch his show are the rusted on Liberal lunatics.
Sharri Markson says Liberal internal polling has their primary in marginals at 40%, and Labor is in the 20s in QLD.
From a rational, data focused point of view, one part of me expects the ALP PV to be a bit higher than the polls 1-2% so around 38-39 due to the high profile of the Inds, the difficulty sampling as they are not everywhere and perhaps a bit of under sampling of the ALP as a caution/reaction to the 2019 poll failure, guess over egging the error correction but not by much.
The other part will be waiting an hoping for the best as everything is pointing in the right direction and this campaign is nothing like 2019 but we will only know when AG has the first swing number in, then we know.
One thing that will be welcome, a PM that actually governs and not just campaigns, I cant believe we have been in campaign mode from SfM since December
SA Bludger says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:08 pm
Paul Murray exasperatedly PLEADING for disaffected LNP voters to vote for them this time, and then if they don’t improve next time then they can vote for a minor party.
He looks like he’s about to explode.
中华人民共和国
I would pay good money to see that.
Also, if as the polls predict (yes salt sprinkle and all that) Morrison loses, I hope me cry’s like Fraser.
I will remind readers that John Hewson and the coalition lead 53-47 on election eve 1993.
35% LNP primary. Yikes.
Palmer is spending $70 million in a grand attempt to harness the fearsome power of fear, ignorance and stupidity and channel it to the Coalition.
PB
Yes I understand the SA dream being Boothby and Sturt. Xanthippe and I did a shift of pre-poll booth crewing. Xanthippe’s booth was a joint Boothby/Sturt booth that was very promising. I am very optimistic for Boothby.
We will both be working on a Sturt booth tomorrow afternoon. I am more cautious for Sturt but I think Labor has a real chance. Liberal MP James Stevens has been a lazy bench-warmer for three years. If the State swing is repeated it is 50/50. I think the Federal swing could be worse, because Morrison is far less popular than Steve Marshall was. Fingers crossed.
If all the poll companies get it wrong this time they need to shut their doors.
WB from the header
Is that right? 54-46?
[I will remind readers that John Hewson and the coalition lead 53-47 on election eve 1993.]
How many polls were there back then?
Think it basically comes down to – they have been in government for nearly 10 years and its time to give the others a go.
Think it might be that simple.
steve davis:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:06 pm
[‘Early for Newspoll. Any ideas why?’]
I’m not sure it’s early but in any event, the electorate is not enamoured of Morrison.
That’s a worry if Sharri Markson’s scoop is based on real polls and not MPs trying to set the media agenda.
South
Yes Sales is ex pentecostal. Think Her ex husband and in laws are , in laws may have been Pastors and missionaries.
Why she takes it easy on sfm.
No they didnt daniel
Newspoll alp 2pp final poll (reality)
2019 51.5 (48.5)
2016 49.5 (49.6)
2013 46 (46.5)
2010 50.2(50.1)
2007 52(52.7)
2004 50(47.3)
2001 47(49)
1998 53(51)
1996 46.5(46.4)
1993 49.5(51.4)
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/YCR20/upload_binary/YCR20.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22library/prspub/YCR20%22
Was 49.5/50.5 to the lnp
Cheers Ray(UK). As a Pom in Oz for 30 years still miss Blighty, but adore Oz. And pretty hopeful we’ll have a Labor gov tomorrow after nine years of the Tories. On the polling booth for four hours tomorrow.
T.D. Kerobatsos @ #40 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:17 pm
Big swings aren’t uncommon in Queensland. In 2019, there was a swing of 4.34%, and that was an election that only saw a 1.17% swing nationwide.
In 2007, the Queensland swing was 7.53%.
In the 2015 state election, the swing was 14%, after a 13.7% swing at the 2012 election.
Channel 7 looks a winner to me tomorrow night with Jason Clare, Katy Gallagher, Chris Bowen, Christopher Pyne, Michaelia Cash and David Littleproud.
ABC has Antony Green with his capacious research, the other channels will watch him and repeat for us.
I’m watching 7 especially for Michaelia Cash. Should be fun.
SA Bludger says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:21 pm
Sharri Markson says Liberal internal polling has their primary in marginals at 40%, and Labor is in the 20s in QLD.
——————–
Corrupt newsltd hacks are following the exact same formula for Morrison and his cronies as trump
Where they claimed Trump would get to 310 seats
Still on track for a record 2PP for ALP, and record low primary for Coaliton
Now, let’s remember that’s 53% for the ALP in Newspoll after they have adjusted their 2PP calculation from primary votes in favour of the Coalition and against the ALP, to correct for their mistake in 2019.
So, that 53% looks parsimonious, and if it’s wrong it’s probably because the ALP may achieve a higher 2PP than that. For instance, what about 53.5%?….. 🙂
29% to 3rd voices and 36% to Labor. 65% comprise the Not-A-Lib plurality. The LNP will lose seats everywhere…to the Mutineers, to Labor. I would venture to think that in their contests with Labor – in the 130-odd seats in which the 2CP contest is with Labor – the Reactionaries will obtain an overall 36-37/90. 40-42%.
The immense 3rd voice vote will conceal the dimensions of the underlying swing against the Reactionaries.
This would represent a swing of 10-12% away from the LRP vis-a-vis Labor. The total swing away from them will be greater than this – registering even more strongly in seats won by then Lite – and will sweep them from blue ribbon seats in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and in the regions too.
Excellent.
The election even Newspoll in 1993 had Hewson/Coalition leading 50.5/49.5
From the previous thread:
ltep @ #1668 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
From humble beginnings big things grow William.
Sad I wasn’t around quite at this time:
https://web.archive.org/web/20040125023035/http://www.pollbludger.com/
January 12, 2004
GREETINGS FROM THE POLL BLUDGER
Welcome to the first ever posting from The Poll Bludger. I am a Melbourne-based amateur psephologist hoping to use the magic of the internet to impart the accumulated wisdom of a life spent obsessing over the Australian electoral process. As anyone who is truly in touch with the aspirations of mainstream Australia can tell you, millions of people out there are crying out for a one-stop point of access for the very latest information on preselection contests, preference deals, electoral redistributions and all the other things that make Australian democracy such a uniquely pulse-quickening affair. The Poll Bludger offers all this and more.
Bless! 🙂
Newspoll was 50.5% in favour of the coalition on the eve of the 1993 election.
@Jaeger – Ironically I’m having a quiet Morrisons Topaque at the moment. Those “bottles” would be sensational.
@Daniel on what basis do you claim the final polls were saying 53-47 for Hewson?
I quote Kevin Bonham
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-keating-aggregation-1990-1993.html?m=1
“I convert the final Newspoll and Morgan as both 50.7% 2PP to Labor – the end result was 51.4. Off the post-election pendulum 51.0 would in fact have been needed to win”
Luigi Smith @ #70 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:26 pm
Yes and Seven is claiming it will be the first to call a result. If you can stomach the ads should be the place to watch. You’d take Mark Riley over Uhlmann and most of the ABC team any day.
Majority of prepollers don’t take any HTVs. Palmer inspired freedom fighters are quite vocal and demonstative but not big numbers in SA.
The Aust Institute Senate polling had Palmer on 8 % in VIC which could mean a seat. But didn’t look a chance anywhere else.
What will be fascinating is preferences between ON, Palmer and LDP in Senate.
If they ran tightly there would chance of RW minor in all states but that is very unlikely. QLD ON and VIC Palmer seem only serious chances.
Let’s hope WA, SA, Tasmania, Vic, Nsw and ACT can all reduce LNP and ON (and Palmer) senators by 1 in each case. Would be a good result
Does anyone know what the preferred PM polls were this time in 2019?
Corrected: the previous Newspoll TPP (yes, it was 54-46, not 56-46 or whatever) and the account of the Roy Morgan poll, which actually isn’t a new poll at all, but a reiteration of the result they released earlier in the week with a note attached saying they kept polling throughout this week but didn’t see any movement worth noting.
I’ve just got off the phone from speaking to people who will be helping me hand out HTVs tomorrow and there’s more than a little trepidation about the result when you consider they, too, are suffering 2019 PTSD. 🙂
I’m reading a lot of comment about shredders and erased hard drives. Is it legal to destroy government data? I suppose there’s a grey area, as in most things. But still, records are important. And even gaps in a data record are in themselves data.
Re Daniel @8:22 – 50.5 : 49.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Australian_federal_election
Would there be any dis-affected LNP voters watching Paul Murray? Aren’t his viewers all RWNJ’s & already voting or preferencing LNP.
A “Tom Yum” Mojito. Traditional Mojito with Red Chilly and Lemongrass. Aroi
https://imgur.com/a/BHnB9m5
Anyone who wants to see what the polls were saying in 2019 can review them in all their ugly detail here:
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019
Paterson will be a Liberal gain and Hunter will be a National gain, the Labor brand is toxic in the Hunter region.
55 seats at best the Lib/nats can expect with a 35/36% combined primary vote
Spence
They are talking about a shy palmer vote now. People embarrassed to voice their support to pollsters.
“I’m watching 7 especially for Michaelia Cash. Should be fun.”
I may switch to that if Scomos makes a concession speech. 🙂
“ShowsOn says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:24 pm
[I will remind readers that John Hewson and the coalition lead 53-47 on election eve 1993.]”
That was a year when a “miracle” happened (favouring the ALP).
This would be the year of a second-consecutive-“miracle”…. I don’t think that the Almighty is in the mood, sorry.
FWIW last time out the Libs had every polling booth completely wrapped by about 4pm, with three teams out at the same time. Today we were there first and grabbed the prime spots, deliberately not going bonkers. They had one truck with three paid workers that turned up as we were finishing off. Literally all of the Lib messaging is negative. I think people have recognised that after all their time in power there should be some positives they can point to instead of playgrounds rhymes with someone’s surname.
Preferred pm was 45/38 to morrison
On every metric the lnp are in trouble.
As for qld – who knows
Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”.
Katharine Murphy
@murpharoo
.
@cpyne
on
@AlboMP
and tomorrow, via
@ToryShepherd
If the lib/nats are booted out tomorrow night , will there be a mandatory screamer who screams during the leader’s concession speech