Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll closes its account with a poll result which, if bang on the money, would surely deliver Labor a majority.

The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.

This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.

We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,719 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. G’day bludgers!

    Booth report from Woolgoolga primary in Page

    Nats everywhere, at least four and up to 7 volunteers at times. Current state member Gurmesh Singh spent much of the day and former state member Andrew Fraser put in an appearance. The Sikh community stayed true to form and voted Nat

    ALP only had 1 volunteer (a lovely Lady in the morning and then former state candidate now local councillor Tony Judge in the afternoon) . Not a lot of love for Labor in the busy morning but a bit more interest in the afternoon.

    “Freedom” parties – 2 Hanson volunteers, 2 palmer (plus the actual palmer candidate for about half the day) and the actual lib-dem candidate handing out as well. Lib-dem only handing out his own (and he was actually a really nice personable guy, for a nutter) . Hanson and palmer were handing out all 3 freedom HTVs, plus weirdly Hanabeths at times and often calling themselves independents (go figure?) . Palmer obviously spent a motza, had a branded gazebo (with the actual candidate, not just generic UAP) , shirts, hats , and the 2nd most corflutes after the nats

    Sundries included a green (there for most of the morning then back mid afternoon), a reason volunteer handing out for Jane Caro until lunchtime, and an animal justice party volunteer in the morning.

    Definitely a fair few shy freedom voters, not enough to matter in the lower house but could be interesting in the senate, outside chance of a freedom senator for NSW

    Hanabeth did well, lots of interest and a fair bit of strategic voting I’d guess from greens and Labor voters who want Kevin Hogan gone, I’d be very confident of Hanabeth going at least 3rd, if not 2nd. The nats won the booth, but bodes well for the wider electorate. With nearly 300 volunteers I think we’ll at least build a very strong base to turn the seat teal next time if not this

    As a side note, Tony Judge (ALP) who has excellent political acumen was tipping Caz Heiss to get up in Cowper, said she’d run an outstanding campaign (she has)

    @upnorth , Evan and all the PB Pissheads. I’ve got a beverage in hand!

  4. I think deep down most here just can’t see it happening but are struggling to get to grips with the idea that after all the bravura in recent weeks it’ll come to nothing.
    The Australian voter is not to be trusted with the great and important task of deciding who will govern the country.
    We are quite possibly headed once again for the Pit of Despair.
    I at least will be fully munted when the decent begins.
    Tomorrow? Well that’s a whole other story.

  5. Back from my all dayer. Fairly quiet booth. Just us and the Libs covering the htvs. The Lib candidate is Nepalese so he has that community working hard for him.

    I obviously subscribe to Burgey’s view of Libs, but they were all good value (for Libs 😉 ).

    The booth was 53% to the good guys last time round so I’m claiming anything over that as due to ratsak’s rare ability to get the HTV into the punters’ hands. (And completely reject any responsibility if it falls short)

    Off to the celebration/wake now.

    Fingers crossed.

  7. Evan says:
    Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:44 pm

    The Poll Bludger Pissup Blokes Club is now in session, no age limits, 18 and over, rip in lads
    ——————————————————————–
    But swome of us aren’t blokes….

    OK I’ll just go and drink by myself.

  8. Back from working at my local booth. BBQ done, 3 beers in, red now cracked. Strapped in on the lounge.

    Let’s go Labor!

  11. Labor will be the biggest party (LNP counted as 1) in Parliament. Strap yourdself in guys – we might be doing this again soon

  14. “Due to content restrictions, IView cannot be streamed outside Australia.”

    That sucks and it shouldn’t be the ABC’s policy to restrict their online content geographically. But if you spend a few dollars a month on a Virtual Private Network (VPN) you can choose an IP address that makes it look like you are connecting to the Internet from Australia. Surfshark is a well-regarded VPN provider and it only costs 2.50 USD per month.

  17. Nervewracking at 6:30pm, relief by 11:00pm.

    ScoMo is no longer PM, and Katherine Deves is finished.

    Good riddance.

  19. Gilmore is line ball, Constance clawed back a 1400 vote deficit over night to now be about 70 in front.

    Conflicting reports regarding the postals cutting 55-45 to both Constance and Philips depending who you’re talking to

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