Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll closes its account with a poll result which, if bang on the money, would surely deliver Labor a majority.

The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.

This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.

We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,719 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 35
1 33 34 35
  1. With the lights out it’s less dangerous
    Here we are now, entertain us …

    on edit: thanks P1 and It’sTime for advice thoughtfully rendered.

  2. Hoping for a labor majority, I gave in and picked up 1.90 yesterday night before newspoll.

    4 minutes, the ABC music is irritating.

    Remember people, if it gets called for labor head over the sky to watch credlin.

  3. Good luck cobbers. I am damn proud to be a Labor guy and proud of Albo. I love youse all! Be safe tonight and every night. I’m cracking me first Beer Lao now!!!!!

  4. Melbourne in front by 20 points at half time, 8.9.57 to 6.1.37, at Docklands.

    Inaccurate kicking by the Dees compared to the Roos.

    10 minutes and counting (before polls close on the Eastern seaboard)

  5. Things I really want to see tonight, after an Albo win.

    1. Tim Wilson losing his seat. Really hate that guy.
    2. Josh from Finance GORN. That would be delicious. I expect tears live on air. And a rant.
    3. Dutto going from Dickson would be a sight to see. Ali France would make a great local member. Will Dutto concede, or will he do a Trump?
    4. Whatever Deves says when she doesn’t win. Am sure it will be unhinged.
    5. All the revisionist thinking on the part of journos after their efforts from the last 6 weeks.

    I’ll add to your comprehensive list, BTRProducer – 6. Dave Sharma losing in Wentworth, can’t stand him, the fake moderate.
    7. Morrison having to actually concede.
    8. If Morrison loses, the state of depression on Sky News, and Paul Murray self-combusting.

  6. Heya Bludgers. I’ve been lurking for the last six weeks. I was in here to my armpits 15 years ago, but this time around I haven’t had much to add psephologically. But thanks for the commentary, thanks WB for pulling it all together, and thanks to everyone doing the hard yards with the HTVs today and at pre. Beyond excited. Spicy chicken wings ready for the oven. Nervous but confident. Let’s hope some people voted for climate and integrity this time around.

  7. BTR
    If Josh loses, Dutton becomes LOTO. That would be unbearable. As much as I dislike Frydenburg it would be better for the country if he’s LOTO. Dutton would be too divisive.

  8. BTRProducer says:
    Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:06 pm

    Folks, I couldn’t wait any longer. I wanted to wait till 6pm to crack open my first beer. But I’m bored and nervous about tonight, so have opened a cold frothy one.

    Can we declare the first PB Piss heads Club meeting open, or do we need to wait for an exit poll?
    I’ve got started too, although it is half an hour later here in SA. We probably started at the same time. Bottoms up!

  9. The UAP from memory got a fairly High vote in the Qld 2015 state election but a huge majority of the 2nd preferences went ALPs way because the Libs were so disliked ( not sure what the UAP HTVs said back then). Could it be this way in Qld again ? As a Qlder I can certainly say Scomoe is easily as disliked as Cando Newman. Either way Scomoe is a dead man walking as leader.

  10. Too early for drinking for me but if Labor gets up I will be opening a 30 year old Glenfiddich.
    I have arrived at my overnight accomodation, paid by my kids as a birthday present so I can watch the election uninterrupted. Added benefit my grandkids won’t see me drunk if it all goes wrong.
    I have a nice wine to get started and carb loaded on the trip in to limit alcohol after effects. Hoping to finish the night savouring my whisky not getting drunk on the mini bar.

  11. Annabell Crab is another light weight intellectual like Waleed Aly. She’s smart, but never had skin in the game so everything is just a fun puzzle for her. Market goes up, or down or government change crabb stays the same.

Comments Page 34 of 35
1 33 34 35

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *