The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
1,719 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”
With the lights out it’s less dangerous
Here we are now, entertain us …
on edit: thanks P1 and It’sTime for advice thoughtfully rendered.
I’m so happy the campaign is over – bring on the votes and hopefully a new government.
First votes are in. Norfolk Island.
Hoping for a labor majority, I gave in and picked up 1.90 yesterday night before newspoll.
4 minutes, the ABC music is irritating.
Remember people, if it gets called for labor head over the sky to watch credlin.
On past form, we’ll get very early results in Hunter
Good luck cobbers. I am damn proud to be a Labor guy and proud of Albo. I love youse all! Be safe tonight and every night. I’m cracking me first Beer Lao now!!!!!
Is Norfolk Island a timezone ahead perhaps?
Big upset coming
Jamie Christie to win Bean
Only joking, the figure mean nothing.
Scott from Adelaide
Melbourne in front by 20 points at half time, 8.9.57 to 6.1.37, at Docklands.
Inaccurate kicking by the Dees compared to the Roos.
10 minutes and counting (before polls close on the Eastern seaboard)
here we go!
1 minute folks! Did anyone forget to vote??
Things I really want to see tonight, after an Albo win.
1. Tim Wilson losing his seat. Really hate that guy.
2. Josh from Finance GORN. That would be delicious. I expect tears live on air. And a rant.
3. Dutto going from Dickson would be a sight to see. Ali France would make a great local member. Will Dutto concede, or will he do a Trump?
4. Whatever Deves says when she doesn’t win. Am sure it will be unhinged.
5. All the revisionist thinking on the part of journos after their efforts from the last 6 weeks.
I’ll add to your comprehensive list, BTRProducer – 6. Dave Sharma losing in Wentworth, can’t stand him, the fake moderate.
7. Morrison having to actually concede.
8. If Morrison loses, the state of depression on Sky News, and Paul Murray self-combusting.
17% swing against Liberal on Norfolk Island
Too soon to call it?
Here we go. Labor will surely win, but it’s the strangest atmosphere of an election day I can remember.
Heya Bludgers. I’ve been lurking for the last six weeks. I was in here to my armpits 15 years ago, but this time around I haven’t had much to add psephologically. But thanks for the commentary, thanks WB for pulling it all together, and thanks to everyone doing the hard yards with the HTVs today and at pre. Beyond excited. Spicy chicken wings ready for the oven. Nervous but confident. Let’s hope some people voted for climate and integrity this time around.
William Bowe @ #1649 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:56 pm
Norfolk Island is an hour ahead of the east coast.
Solidarity Upnorth, solidarity.
Sandman @ #1615 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:48 pm
It’s in there. 🙂 It’s a long list.
77 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 8 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
And now the large lady can sing!
And now the large lady can sing!
Hey was that William? Did someone pass him the cheese platter and a plate to go?
Let’s go!!!! Finish the fight Albo!!!!
MJ @ 1757
Norfolk Island is one hour ahead of EST i.e. it is now 1900 (7.00pm)
Just heard Morrison has changed his mind about a lot of his policies and he is no longer accountable for any of them
If Josh loses, Dutton becomes LOTO. That would be unbearable. As much as I dislike Frydenburg it would be better for the country if he’s LOTO. Dutton would be too divisive.
B.S. Fairman @ #1652 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:57 pm
Oh no! The indies are sweeping the board!
Mundo. You’ve got this mate.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/21/federal-election-live-3/ – it’s here!
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:06 pm
Folks, I couldn’t wait any longer. I wanted to wait till 6pm to crack open my first beer. But I’m bored and nervous about tonight, so have opened a cold frothy one.
Can we declare the first PB Piss heads Club meeting open, or do we need to wait for an exit poll?
I’ve got started too, although it is half an hour later here in SA. We probably started at the same time. Bottoms up!
Well I’m ready, drink in hand. Waiting waiting.
It’s too late to change most of the result, so here’s hoping for team labor.
time to have a drink.
Yes, Norfolk Island is an hour ahead.
Oh god. We have to put up with Leigh Sales? I thought she was retiring?
B.S. Fairman says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:57 pm
“First votes are in. Norfolk Island.”
Well based on that, we might have an independent government.
Peta Credlin looks like a giant canary on sky. The color suits her.
The UAP from memory got a fairly High vote in the Qld 2015 state election but a huge majority of the 2nd preferences went ALPs way because the Libs were so disliked ( not sure what the UAP HTVs said back then). Could it be this way in Qld again ? As a Qlder I can certainly say Scomoe is easily as disliked as Cando Newman. Either way Scomoe is a dead man walking as leader.
6 and a half weeks at sea.
Too early for drinking for me but if Labor gets up I will be opening a 30 year old Glenfiddich.
I have arrived at my overnight accomodation, paid by my kids as a birthday present so I can watch the election uninterrupted. Added benefit my grandkids won’t see me drunk if it all goes wrong.
I have a nice wine to get started and carb loaded on the trip in to limit alcohol after effects. Hoping to finish the night savouring my whisky not getting drunk on the mini bar.
BTW, how/why can we see early results from the east when polling booths are still open in SA/NT/WA?
Annabell Crab both parties same same on net zero and other. ABC will not talk about ficac.
William Bowe @ #1682 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 6:01 pm
Annabell Crab is another light weight intellectual like Waleed Aly. She’s smart, but never had skin in the game so everything is just a fun puzzle for her. Market goes up, or down or government change crabb stays the same.
Holly Hughes is going doing a Freya on Channel 10. 🙂
She said Libs will win Warringah.
Hazy pale tastes good. Time to flick through the channels and see who momentarily is less annoying.
libs are not doing well