The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
If they wanted true exit polls they should have had people at marginals for the past 2 weeks when a third of people voted
Bugger me, folks. Are we really here? 15 minutes to go. My nerves are starting to kick in. Which means it’s time for another drink.
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Stuff the election, I’m more interested in the exotic entertainment Nath is offering.
BTRProducer/Beaglieboy/Upnorth/Boinzo/Pi – wish we were partying together right now, much more fun getting drunk when you are with a band of like minded lads.
中华人民共和国
It woukd be bloody exotic!! Especially if you cobbers could get to Bangkok!
Evan says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Stuff the election, I’m more interested in the exotic entertainment Nath is offering.
___________
Just let your imagination flow Evan. The Sky is the limit when it comes to exotic entertainment, the only limiting factor is cash. And we control the Treasury.
From Narrabundah in the Nation’s Capital we bring you Percy, the Prophetic Peacock and Prudent Peafowl Pollster, who has Perceptively Positioned Labor as the Preferred Party in 2022!
JenAuthor @ #1600 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:43 pm
+1
Port decanted, sparkling shiraz in the fridge. Busying ourselves with removing heavy and sharp objects from the the viewing area just in case.
The dog is looking at us eagerly and barking. No doubt thinking that with all this pent up excitement on display, we are about to go out to hunt wildebeest.
As Itep said earlier, Exit Poll in 2019 gave it to Labor…early ….and as things progress and those seats did not dislodge from Blue to Red, the Exit Poll turned to jelly on a sunny day…
The Poll Bludger Pissup Blokes Club is now in session, no age limits, 18 and over, rip in lads
Like sprocket_ said, “penny gamblers”. And if you’re gonna toss just a few bucks down, why would you bet on the favourite? At least if you put a few bucks on the Coalition you can buy a beer with your winnings if they get up.
Good luck trying to get an accurate exit poll with only 65% of people voting today.
election thread cant be far away
Bugger me, folks. Are we really here? 15 minutes to go. My nerves are starting to kick in. Which means it’s time for another drink.
I second that motion too, BTRProducer, unity ticket cobber
In fairness, you really won’t get any meaningful results until 6.45PM EST.
First g and t of the night, am absolutely shitting myself after being so confident last election
So, does exit polling in the East have to wait until polls close in the West? If so, counting will be well under way in any event……..2 hours in to the count on Over East…..
Good luck to William tonight too in his broom cupboard at Channel 9, hope they keep him well fed and hydrated.
I do really want Tim Wilson to lose, that would be worth 2 beers if AG calls Goldstein for Zoe Daniel.
Meanwhile … close game at Docklands in Melbourne Dees v Roos… compared to say previous weeks. Could that be a preview of the night ahead. Roos have kicked all goals so far.
Nice clear and crisp night here in the seat of Monash. Best time to be in Melbourne. As a former Box Hill ‘lad’ I’ll be keeping a close eye on Chisholm in addition to the usual suspects. Lots of people out and about in Hughesdale where I live in the local eateries.
Already broached a nice Shiraz with some Meredith goat’s cheese.
The die is cast Bludgers. Strap in! Hoping for a smooth ride but could be bumpy
Excited
Nervous
Whats the first tranche of seats we looking for a signal/assurance at?
Bass, Braddon, Reid, Chisolm?
Fellow pissheads. Hazy Pale engaged.
I’m oddly calm compared to the previous election, after 2019 will just accept the result whether good or bad.
Special Dedicated Minister for Assisting Pissheads here……….a long night of joy to be had if you pace yourselves guys….don’t get too smashed too early and miss Mr Morrison conceding.
max @ #1618 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:49 pm
I’m hoping for the best, but resigned to the worst.
Evan @ 1748
+1
Tim Wilson is an odious individual. Wonder if he has brushed up his CV and made a few calls to the IPA?
Does anyone know whether Chris Ulhmann still look like he won the Lottery
ellow pissheads. Hazy Pale engaged.
Boinzo, evening mate, rip in son!
First seats I’d be interested in – Gilmore and Eden Monaro, because you generally get very early figures for them at about 6.30 PM.
10 min count down
I’ve opened my second bottle of Shiraz.
A birthday whisky to follow.
Forgive my unhingement later tonight.
Have just realized that the fanciest tipple in the house is a souvenir of Tasmania. Farking Luck. I mean, it’s F**king Lark, the single malt distillery of the 4.5 million grant.
Oh doG. What a dilemma.
Ok so now that the polls are pretty much closed in Vic, I’m going to say that I expect the Greens vote to drop in Kooyong, perhaps by a fair bit, and for it to go straight to the Teal indie Monique Ryan instead. It’s likely that it will buck the trend in that regard. That’s not the fault of Piers Mitchem either, who has put in a really good campaign and done his best but has just been totally drowned out by the huge MSM coverage that Ryan and the Teals have gotten. He was just in the wrong seat at the wrong time. Hopefully it’s not for nothing and Ryan can go on and take the seat from the Libs with our prefs, it would be seriously awesome if she does.
I am not nervous, I am 100% sure Labour will win seats and that the Coalition will lost seats to both Labor and independents. It is almost certain that Labor will win a majority, but if they just fall short Labor will form minority government.
Scott from Adelaide
Expat Follower @ 1749
Bass, Braddon, Reid, Chisolm?
—————
Chisholm for me. Gladys deserves to be punted early.
Hope for the best, be prepared for the worst – the way to approach it!
Almost 6pm, so nearly time to take the top off the first of the Wolf Blass extra brut (and cheap at $6)
Everything I’ve seen has the alp getting more seats then the lnp – whether it’s a majority is anyone’s guess.
Great job Late Riser! Thanks for putting that all together.
Warrigal, under certain conditions i would open a bottle of Lark tonight. But until AG calls it, the good stuff gets left alone.
Just straight beers here for me tonight. Bring it home Albo!
Pollbludger drinking time – champagne to start with – nothing to do with success. Just first choice. Red wine to come.
Fingers crossed this is a celebration drink not drowning sorrows. Good luck Labor.
We are sitting here with glasses of wine in hand waiting…..
Nothing meaningful will be known for a hour! Why are we doing this to ourselves?
Mundo, you’ve been unhinged for a long as I can remember.
I have also got the 30yo port from 30 years ago stashed away somewhere….no have to be alert and soberish to take it all in tonight
You can rule the Lib/nats out on
the combined primary vote lower than 40 %
They have lost more than 6 seats
Regarding Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands and voting… it would be fascinating to see the booth results in both of these islands.
I’m assuming King, Flinders and Kangaroo Islands are incorporated into existing seats within their respective states at a Federal level?
The BK Election Bunker has closed its doors for not too long a session, I hope.
Things I really want to see tonight, after an Albo win.
1. Tim Wilson losing his seat. Really hate that guy.
2. Josh from Finance GORN. That would be delicious. I expect tears live on air. And a rant.
3. Dutto going from Dickson would be a sight to see. Ali France would make a great local member. Will Dutto concede, or will he do a Trump?
4. Whatever Deves says when she doesn’t win. Am sure it will be unhinged.
5. All the revisionist thinking on the part of journos after their efforts from the last 6 weeks.
5 minutes to go, folks.
First Results in Bean from Norfolk Island on AEC Site
Good luck everyone, fingers crossed!
Ignore Sportsbet and Betfair, wait for the actual real numbers.
Cracking Beer No 3 open.
Warrigal @ #1628 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 5:51 pm
Drink it and it will be gone, like Slomo. And picture how the maker will be feeling when you toast Slomo’s departure with it.
The Norfolk Island booth is in, but apparently it shouldn’t be.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-318.htm