The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has Labor leading 53-47, which compares with 54-46 a week ago (and 51.5-48.5 in the erroneous pre-election Newspoll in 2019). The primary votes are Coalition 35% (steady), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 5% (down one) and United Australia Party 3% (steady). The two leaders are tied at 42% on preferred prime minister, after Scott Morrison led 43-42 a week ago. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a larger than usual sample of 2188.
This is presumably the final data point to be entered to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which continues to credit Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53.5-46.5, which I’ll believe when I see. Its primary votes are Labor 36.3%, Coalition 34.9%, Greens 11.7% and One Nation 4.0% (and United Australia Party 3.2%, but I don’t include that in the display). Both leaders have net negative approval ratings on the leadership trends, Scott Morrison at minus 7.3% and Anthony Albanese at minus 5.9%, with Morrison at plus 5.4% and Albanese at minus 5.4% on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister result.
We have also had today a report from Roy Morgan in which they relate they have “continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign”. The report then proceeds to reiterate the results of the poll that was released on Tuesday, which fooled me into thinking this was a new set of result, but apparently not. Hat tip to Adrian Beaumont for pointing this out and apologies to anyone who misled by the original version of this post.
IT Crowd:
https://y.yarn.co/6e8d6ea2-4608-46f0-a1d0-bae99d5573b3.mp4
nath says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”.
I agree. If Katter can have a seat of his own for life, so can Frydenberg, in my book. Unfortunately it would also have to be in Queensland, it seems.
So the election is done and dusted then? That seems to be the PB verdict. Not sure how you can take a 29% others vote and be confident that the calculation of 2PP 53-47 isn’t off by 3 or 4%.
Not a prediction, not wishcasting. Just trying to keep (my) expectations in check.
Socrates says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:51 pm
If tomorrow does spell the end of the Scomotocracy in Australia, whilst lacking in achievements, I hope he will be remembered for his wisdom and statesmanlike behaviour in office.
中华人民共和国
Post of the day good sir
Upnorth @ #147 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:50 pm
Here’s hoping
nath @ #125 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 8:12 pm
Ministers of silly dorks?
Or ministers of annoying sounds?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4AmLcBLZWY
Should Albanese become PM on Sunday he’s going to have to figure out a way to neuter Murdoch media if he wants to succeed. Krudd should be the first port of call for some constructive tactical advice.
Luigi Smith says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:52 pm
nath says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Kroger: “If there’s no place for Josh Frydenberg in the Australian Parliament you might as well close the place down”.
I agree. If Katter can have a seat of his own for life, so can Frydenberg, in my book. Unfortunately it would also have to be in Queensland, it seems.
中华人民共和国
Piss off. Enough Mexicans in Queensland already.
This might be an appropriate time to highlight one more achievement of the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments – the change in our relationships with near neighbours, this time East Timor.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/east-timors-new-president-pledges-stronger-ties-with-china-2022-05-20/
Between climate change, aid cuts, insensitive rhetoric and an almost total failure fo senior ministers to meet with these countries leaders and listen, Abbott and Morrison in particular have beena gift ot Chinese foreign policy.
In 1998 the lnp lost 14 seats, that would make alp 83, lnp 62, others 6.
The only reason they held on in 1998 was the big win in 1996.
If the alp won 14 seats and all the independents win it could be 83/55/13
From Ed Husic’s Facebook page:
Labor knows what Clive is trying to do. Hopefully people in the targeted demographics see ads like this.
(Now my photo resizer app is infested by the UAP).
EDIT: here’s Ed Husic’s post –
“ Scott Morrison and the NSW Liberals stuff ups triggered: the unfair Western Sydney lockdown, helicopters over our rooves, mandates & work restrictions.
But now Clive Palmer’s Party and One Nation are REWARDING the Liberals in this election by preferencing them.
Angry about lockdowns and mandates? Then get angry about that. Vote them out!”
Well issnt vickey chapman holding of leaving state politics so James stevins can contest her state seat brag in bi election she refused to denie it earlier and has not resigned stevins was stevin marshils chief of staff then replaced buy berminghams wife in Wa michaelia cash would be a drag on there vote shes no cormann
I’m reasonably certain you could scrape together a half decent Cabinet on PB. As long as Lars and I held the key portfolios.
We wouldn’t be lacking for any filibustering talent
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:55 pm
I’m reasonably certain you could scrape together a half decent Cabinet on PB. As long as Lars and I held the key portfolios.
We wouldn’t be lacking for any filibustering talent
_________________________________
We will need a South Australian for regional balance of course.
BeaglieBoy:
I agree – as I have had cabinet in confidence security clearance I volunteer for a senior Ministry.
(alias says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:39 pm
Re Christopher Pyne’s comments (which were on The Drum)
Offered the chance to nominate a single “campaign moment”, Pyne named Morrison’s crash
tackle of the 8-year-old soccer player,)
On the ABC 7:30 Report, they said that crash tackle was Morrisons Child Care Policy.
I’m reasonably certain you could scrape together a half decent Cabinet on PB. As long as Lars and I held the key portfolios.
Ministers of silly dorks?
Or ministers of annoying sounds?
LOL.
Door (left), and door (right.)
Unfortunately, you can’t open the cabinet because the doors are fused together.
So, I don’t see the conditions for a Lib miracle, but rather for a very bad Alptealing of the Coalition.
Commentators have reluctantly incorporated the Teals as an issue… After the votes are counted, they will have to accept the Teals as a political force and polling agencies will have to add a new column to their results.
The Teals could become like a cancer for the Liberals, potentially metastasising to Nationals electorates….. Interesting times ahead.
Minister for Pacific Affairs sounds good….based in Fiji
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:59 pm
Minister for Pacific Affairs sounds good….based in Fiji
中华人民共和国
Affairs hey. You sly old dog.
Did Markson say if she meant marginal before or after the election
Win, lose or draw, I am glad that this long election will finally be over tomorrow. Parties, candidates and supporters, please ensure you take those corflutes down ASAP.
It’s basically been election season here since Summer. I’m over it. Although I feel bad for electors in the state seat of Bragg. Not only have they endured the state and federal election almost back to back but pretty much will be jumping into a by-election after this.
Hazar the others colum includes the tals as well as uap uap are just designed to get dis effected libs to vote for them to help libsget in to government with ptreferentsis like the greens for labor so is phon stevins will be fine will lose sturt but pick up chapman seat of brag whiy she has not resigned
Good one MikeK
😆 Albo on Foxtel. Albo asked at presser “….at a personal level. What do you have that Scott Morrison doesn’t ? ” . Albo Straight off the bat and firmly “I have integrity.” . Followed by “and the capacity to take responsibility”
“William Bowe says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:04 pm
I’ll be in a broom closet at Nine in Sydney, off screen.”
——————-
Bristling at the indignity i suspect
Test – are blockquotes applied to replies? (Yes.)
I mentioned Possum’s statement at the beginning of the campaign yesterday. He’s done a follow-up:
Perhaps we could save a lot of money and CO2 just by not having election campaigns
Lars Von Trier says:
_________________________________
We will need a South Australian for regional balance of course.
_______
BK, minister for Aged Care. The real trick is finding a suitable Tasmanian!
Well bludgers: latest polls show some signs of narrowing but not enough for me to shift my original punt. I’m sticking with ALP 80, LNP 63, OTH 8.
A couple of notes:
1. The thing I think I most likely have wrong is OTHERS, which could easily go higher, and (mostly) at LNP expense.
2. Polls suggest a 1 in 3 chance that we’ll end up in minority territory (much lower than the media suggest), but in that event I do not believe the LNP will be in a position to lead it, having lost too many seats to Labor and Teals. They simply wont be within coo-ee.
3. For the above reasons, I think we’ll know on the night: either a Labor majority, or a minority situation with the LNP simply not in the hunt.
The above is what my mind says. (My gut feels it might just be an anti-ScoMo bloodbath, Labor smashes him with 85+. But I have no rational basis here)
And as a final note: I reckon an ALP-led minority would be a great outcome, but a narrow majority more likely. Happy voting!!
nath says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:05 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
_________________________________
We will need a South Australian for regional balance of course.
_______
BK, minister for Aged Care. The real trick is finding a suitable Tasmanian!
中华人民共和国
Mundo. Told you already. He be the PM. Same as Joe Lyons.
William
How do Pollsters collect and distribute the young vote, plse?
nath says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:05 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
_________________________________
We will need a South Australian for regional balance of course.
_______
BK, minister for Aged Care. The real trick is finding a suitable Tasmanian!
_________________
Too true – we have some very odd Tasmanian colleagues on here. But there is hope – Andrew Gold, sensible and progressive approach. Minister for Social Services
I am humbled.
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:59 pm
Minister for Pacific Affairs sounds good….based in Fiji
中华人民共和国
Affairs hey. You sly old dog.
My portfolio will necessitate having a deep understanding of the people and their culture…..but Mrs Beaglie has expressly ruled out any of those shenanigans….and in any case I have no interest in lovely brown girls with long dark hair in grass skirts….no no no….none at all…not even a little bit….no siree bob…
“It’s basically been election season here since Summer.”
***
Two more large Australian elections to follow after the the Fed – Vic in Nov and then NSW in March. By the time the Senate results are in the Victorians should be in full campaign mode.
With great difficulty, and by heavily weighting them.
Firefox says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:08 pm
“It’s basically been election season here since Summer.”
***
Two more large Australian elections to follow after the the Fed – Vic in Nov and then NSW in March. By the time the Senate results are in the Victorians should be in full campaign mode.
中华人民共和国
Plus the Bangkok Governors race on Sunday.
C@tmomma:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 8:27 pm
Yes, it was a good intro by dear moderator & he’s certainly cleaned this site up by banning (permanently or temporarily) those who seem to take delight in putting others down. Most aren’t into the personal – no offence, Growler. I hope you’re allowed back as you can be entertaining until the nitrogenous waste sets on the liver. Oh, and I wonder where the likes of Calabrese, “gusface”, and “the finnigans” now post? Perhaps dear Flavio could elucidate? One final point, there’s no way that Morrison’s deity will grant him a second miracle.
Who cares about Sharri Markson’s comments? She’s almost always wrong.
Same could be said for Bree, who is a 1/10 troll.
FireFox….minister for Mining
Mavis for Cabinet Secretary.
Oakeshott Country – Minister for Health
Matt 31 – Minister for Regional Development, being from the NT and all.
Mavis @ #189 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 9:10 pm
They’re all on Twitter
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:11 pm
FireFox….minister for Mining
中华人民共和国
Hear Hear!
Boerwar Minister for Defence and Fisheries
I hope that if/when Ablo wins tomorrow night, he finishes his acceptance speech by kicking off a full DJ set to bring in the new era.
I for one will welcome our new DJ Overlord.
Election season has coincided with the last four months of the Wet Season here. Unlike Darwin’s Wet Season which has a more or less predictable end, ours is more like a Westros Winter…
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:11 pm
FireFox….minister for Mining
_____________________
Minister for Resources, firefox will make sure nothing gets through an EIS ever!
Of course I will be the Minister for Fun. Heading up the biggest Ministry.
Alright @Late Riser
Put me down for ALP 79 LNP 61 GRN 2 CA 1 KAP 1 Others (including teal) 7
I dare to dream!
Upnorth says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:13 pm
BeaglieBoy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 9:11 pm
FireFox….minister for Mining
中华人民共和国
Hear Hear!
Boerwar Minister for Defence and Fisheries
__________________
Unfortunately boerwar would have to make do with being in Opposition – too much waffle and obsession.