The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
D
Indian and Chinese immigrants mostly just believe that center-left parties “tax and spend” while center-right parties “manage the economy well”. It’s hard to change that perception.
Last paragraph from Fran gives a clue.
DB
That is counter-intuitive.
Bellwether @ #112 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:51 am
Yes, it’s hard to see. Herding has been discounted this time, but there are shades of wrong. The PV is close and I remain to be convinced that the classic MOE calculation is relevant as a description of assumptions being made in the preference distributions. There’ll be a pollster winner too. Having said that, I’m hoping to learn from the podcast. I may have to change my mind.
“conflict fatigue” – good one Albo.
Yes fess. You could argue Morrison’s lemons are only that because people have wised to his BS. ButMorrison and Murdoch use, and have confidence in, the scattergun approach hoping for one good resonating blow and accumulation of smaller ones.
Last week was ground work for this final week – preparing their listeners and readers with how unfair it is that Albanese has been getting an easy run – Teflon (FFS!). They will come up with something this week. ‘How weak that will be’ is one question. ‘Who is listening’ is definitely another.
The size and attentiveness of the readership and audience of the RW propagandist media groups and silos and its influence on other media is not to be underestimated. Yet to play desperate hardball in the last week of a campaign in an election they look very likely to lose is a big risk. I wonder if they even remember how to play it safe?
Speers giving Albo a very clear run today. Will be interesting to see how Frydenberg fares.
Labor will support the Libs new housing blurb ….
… but wait, there’s more – a decent housing policy too.
Very sad news of the sudden death of Andrew Symonds. He was one of the characters of the game.
Politically, This will dominate the news services tonight for the first 5 minutes and it will make it hard for Morrison to get the messages out from his launch.
THE PORK IS RIGHT – Australia’s favourite rort guessing game show is back!
https://youtu.be/ywyD6acrYTc
TSB
Great stuff!
ItzaDream @ #134 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:14 am
I saw that sentiment a few days ago. If Albanese has stumbled Mr Morrison must have fallen flat on his face.
It’s genius – Labor has annulled Morrison’s big Campaign Launch Fabulous Housing Announcement, before it is even announced.
“Prime Minister, the Tourism Minister under John Howard, Fran Bailey, today admitted she sacked you when you worked at Tourism Australia. Can you tell Australians what you were sacked for?”
Come on. Someone ask it.
My goodness,the shredders in LNP offices will be going 24/7 this week.There must be lots to hide.
Vale Andrew Symonds.
Incredibly talented cricketer. Highly entertaining for fans.
Didn’t handle the fame too well though. Just a country lad.
His commentary was very good. Sad he couldn’t spend his retirement continuing with that.
Off the air here team, have a great day, off to a great start.
Greensborough Growler @ #142 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:20 am
For some reason this made me think of Pence for whom women just belong in that other camp.
C’mon WA voters, don’t let the team down. Stand strong and reject the L/NP corruption.
Rex Douglas @ #170 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:42 am
I’ve got a bad feeling.
Jude says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:05 am
Ven
Because USD is the ultimate haven asset…
I always though it was gold????
Frydenberg having to sell a shit-sandwhich ICAC. Ploughs on gamely but not winning any votes.
@mundo… back in your hutch
“I’ve got a bad feeling”…..well put some cream on it and put it away
Andrew Symonds, cricketer, dies in car accident.
“A vote is deemed informal on the House of Representatives ballot paper if a voter has only marked one box with the number ‘1’ and left the rest of the boxes blank,” the spokeswoman said.”
—————
I thought there were savings provisions to give effect to the clearly indicated decision of the voter.
Surely, the first preference should be counted without any allocation of further preferences.
While it’s unlikely, Imagine if the election was finally determined by a few hundred clearly expressed but discarded ballots in Kooyong!!
By far Albo’s best interview of the campaign so far. Confident, direct and prime ministerial. He’s just grown into the campaign and nailed all the high notes. The only subject not touched on today was icac, but speers just grilled Frydenberg on that.
Very little interruptions by Speers too. Was *the* interview of the campaign.
11 of the victims at New York shooting were black
And the shooters rhetoric was all about preserving white supremacy.
The totally disgusting tucker Carlson needs to stop with his daily brainwashing of his audience in this regard.
Frydenberg bringing his campaign for Kooyong to the ABC and also attempting to audition for modern Liberal leader.
FWIW….In WA there is no sense of excitement at all and very little love for Morrison….If the polls are correct, then WA will replicate the general vibe in the rest of the country….When the likes of the local Paul Murray sees the writing on the wall, this is a reality check…..
Tomorrow, the West will plaster Morrison’s launch but I sense nobody, other than the LNP rusted-ons – will give a toss…
On indications, two seats should change hands but – as usual – the election will be won/lost in the Eastern States…..
Frydenberg being sent out to defend Morrison and keep opposing an integrity commission on the ABC this morning might really finish him in Kooyong.
Jt1983
I would like nothing better than to see Josh kicked out of his seat. He has shown one and all what a selfish petulant useless idiot he is.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:13 am
Nope Ven, just reckon the WA figures (2 seats) for what was a double digit swing isn’t much of a seat haul.
On NI – its not how the play starts its how it finishes that matters. Let’s see where things stand in December.
”
I have a suspicion whether you like it or not that from the track record of BOJO it will end in tears.
Speers skewering Morrison by interviewing Frydenberg.
Morrison promised changes in his Government. But, not in any policy area. Speers is racking up the areas where the No Change Change of Policy will apply
Apparently, change is important. But, shouldn’t be rushed.
It seems the Chinese Warship Coming to Get Us in WA, has all but disappeared from view in the media, like the ship heading over the horizon back to the Solomons or China I guess.
A late good morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I know there is a big MOE on single seat polls, but I found some of these Perth results hard to believe, given the quantum of swing in a single month? As others have said at least there is no poll herding this time.
I have been avoiding Insiders lately. Is it worth listening to today?
Sad news about Andrew Symonds early death. I thought he was a brilliant talent, and loved the way he played the game. He also suffered from some appalling racism from Indian fans on more than one occasion. Its been a terrible 12 months for losing cricketers.
Yes, will any journo ask Morrison about Fran Bailey’s comments today?
Well, we know the Murdoch ones won’t, but what about the other ones?
Why was smirko fired by fran bailey?
It also looks like the housing announcement isnt a new policy, just an expansion.
The lnp have no new ideas.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:42 am
C’mon WA voters, don’t let the team down. Stand strong and reject the L/NP corruption.
The problem in WA is in Hasluck. As totally useless as he is, nevertheless Wyatt is easy to like and will be difficult to shake. He really is a waste of space, but he’s affable and works the personal local-level connections to good effect.
As an aside, as experienced as Utting is, he’s not always right. Seat polls are inherently doubtful. I for one am sceptical of polling that suggests Mayor Roberts will achieve a PV of just 30%. She’s a far better candidate than the Lying Reactionary, Linda Aitken. I also think the Labor candidate in Hasluck is really outstanding. It will very disappointing if she’s unsuccessful.
I think that Albanese must have extracted a promise from Speers to follow the Tingle precedent of asking a question and allowing an answer. Well done, Speers! It is possible.
Frydenberg doing his best to distance himself diplomatically from Morrison. Good effort.
Rikali :
” I thought there were savings provisions to give effect to the clearly indicated decision of the voter.
Surely, the first preference should be counted without any allocation of further preferences.
While it’s unlikely, Imagine if the election was finally determined by a few hundred clearly expressed but discarded ballots in Kooyong!!
”
—
in the senate, an ATL vote with just a ‘1’ would be counted, but in the house of reps, you need to to number consecutively every box, starting with 1, and not skipping any numbers – the only savings provision is if you dont assign the very last number (i.e. you only put 1 to 7 on a ballot with 8 candidates).
You can see the current guidelines here https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/candidates/files/ballot-paper-formality-guidelines.pdf
Why does LVT always say loose instead of lose. Is he a loose unit or is it spell check?
Rakali says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:46 am
“A vote is deemed informal on the House of Representatives ballot paper if a voter has only marked one box with the number ‘1’ and left the rest of the boxes blank,” the spokeswoman said.”
—————
I thought there were savings provisions to give effect to the clearly indicated decision of the voter.
Surely, the first preference should be counted without any allocation of further preferences.
While it’s unlikely, Imagine if the election was finally determined by a few hundred clearly expressed but discarded ballots in Kooyong!!
The Lite candidates are trying to walk both sides of the street…to oppose the Liberals but also to not pref against them. They pose as Runaway Liberals. But they’re not running all that far. If they pref the Lying Reactionaries, then they will repel Labor voters. If they pref Labor, then they will repel Reactionary voters. So they are hoping ambiguity will work. They have to hope so. They cannot make a declared choice.
When all is said, the Lite will fall in to support the Lying Reactionaries in the House. This is cast in steel. They are ultimately Labor-phobic.
‘loose’ is the right usage.
@Prince planet
I have noticed that the MAGA crowd in the US make a habit of that incorrect spelling of lose. Perhaps it’s a deliberate ultra-right affectation but it comes across as a product of poor education.
Strewth! Dutton is not at all photogenic, is he?
BK
Unfortunately for him quite unsimpatico.
Sky News has obtained industry polling from NSW that would indicate that the Government isn’t in a great spot. It has Labor gaining Robertson and Reid, and holding on in Parramatta, Gilmore, Paterson and (barely) Hunter.
Clennell also mentioned liberal internal polling that has [the govt] down in Bennelong and Banks.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/federal-election/new-polling-suggests-election-loss-for-government/video/719237a0b8aa6a88a6fae0d0783216ea
Of course, where voters mark 1 against the name of the Lite candidate and then make no other marks, it’s possible that voters are not making an error. They might really want to endorse neither the Lying Reactionaries nor Labor, and are saying so with their ballots, even if that means the ballot is invalid. 5% or so of ballots are deliberately invalidated by voters. They reject the choices offered.
Considering the experience that voters have with the preferential system, such votes are far more likely to be deliberate than mistaken.