The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
I have some memory of Trump claiming Hillary was leaked debate questions before one of the debates in 2016, so I guess it allegedly can occur. Anyway, Channel 7 is so pro Scott Morrison that him getting a leak like that would not surprise me!
Peter Potato Head is suggesting that Sandgropers are avoiding swimming along Perth beaches because of the lurking Chinese submarines waiting to do a Harold Holt.
As an avid swimmer & surfer I would be more concerned about being nibbled by one of the large men in grey suits which inhabit the southern coastal ocean.
I enjoy an ocean swim but I don’t think I would encounter many swimmers, 400km off the coast of Exmouth.
Sad about Andrew Symonds, gosh, bad year for Aussie cricketers and tragedy, remember Ryan Campbell recently was in an induced coma too.
Thank you, BK. Just in time + gold plated supply chain + streamlined assembly belt comes to our rescue!
Macca RB: Welcome to the ocean swimming club on Poll Bludger, I do a lot of it around Sydney’s beaches too, way better than lap swimming in a pool. North Bondi to South Bondi and back – recommended for ocean swimmers. Oh, and speedos always, even in winter, none of that wet suit crap.
Burgey @ Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:39 am
“Griff
People in western Sydney aren’t stupid. They haven’t forgotten who forgot to get vaccines which led to them being locked down hard last winter and lose their livelihoods.
The idea that the western suburbs is some sort singular voting bloc is as fanciful as there being a “women’s vote”, an “Italian vote” or a “Soap Dodger vote”.”
Did I say we are stupid (I live here as well) or that we are some sort of singular voting bloc? I am saying the opposite actually. Narrowcasting as a strategy may work. Most politicians do it.
You also may want to take a look at your two sentences and note how the second refutes the first 😉
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:08 am
While you are waiting for the Dawn Patrol you might like to catch up with Pocock v Seselja.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/act-senate-race-can-independents-chase-down-liberal-incumbent
”
In the enthusiasm to support Pocock to defeat Zed I hope ACT don’t defeat Katy Gallagher.
the deeaves stuff would help in some comunities labor should highlight the indea travel ban with covid rolland is a prity low key shadow minister how come no with this government being worst ever libs allways recover but media attacks on labor stick leading to large liberal landslides desbite abbotts popularity labor should of highlighted port of darwin as soon as dutton started his china retorick need to moore on atack and adopts liberals dead cats when strugiling how come libs doing well in wa when mcgowan is popular
Ven
There is that risk, yes.
Ooops. Apologies Burgey. Third and second sentences actually.
labor neds to get more state premiers and ministers like palazchek andrews and especialy mcgowan or mallinuscass in to federal mallinuscass and mcgowan would apeel to the bob hawke style voter by positioning as economick conservative wish labor could win on progresive platform but was closines to big busineess has made liberals unelectible
@ Late Riser
Surely the national polls (not so sure about individual seat polling) will all be wrong if the LNP get up? I haven’t seen one that puts them close to competitive.
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:08 am
“(I also disagree that there was any particular turning point in Howard’s term. ”
There were many turning points, but in the context of the Parliament Howard lost a number of Ministers to the code of conduct and then decided it best to do away with the code of conduct in practice. He steered executive power into unaccountable darkness and the current systemic corruption traces to that point, in much the same way Australia’s eagerness to torture and kill refugees traces exactly to Howard’s racist children overboard lie.
He is the seed at the core of our heart of darkness.
”
Every day since Howard is elevated to the post of PM, I say to myself atleast once, Howard is a crook. I never think like that of any other politician not even Trump.
Evansays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:46 am
Sad about Andrew Symonds, gosh, bad year for Aussie cricketers and tragedy, remember Ryan Campbell recently was in an induced coma too.
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/townsville/2022/05/15/fatal-single-vehicle-crash-hervey-range/
Swings as extreme as those outlined above, unsupported by other polling or explicable by specific local events, means that your polling methodology is suspect.
G’day Evan.
i combine both lap swimming & ocean swimming.
Ocean swim across The Haven to Wamberal Beach and back.
The Haven is the reserve opposite Terrigal Beach.
Absolutely cap & speedos all year round.
Ha!
No surprise sfm needed to prepare, particularly when asked to identify what he admires about Albo.
‘zoomster says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:56 am
Swings as extreme as those outlined above, unsupported by other polling or explicable by specific local events, means that your polling methodology is suspect.’
====================
Or… variations in sample size pump the MOE out too much for the results to make much sense.
We’re in the zone of pure mud … it’s only going to get worse. If you’re hunting for data to make you feel better, you’re probably wasting your time.
Everything will be focused on telling the story of a close race. This may be true, I doubt it… but again, it’s in no one’s interests to suggest the election is already over. The parties and media want to make sure everyone (interested) is paranoid and jumpy all the way through to the end.
And @Lars’ obsession with Keneally remains quite creepy.
As I’ve said previously, this campaign reminds me very much of the 1996 campaign. The it’s oh so close narrative was pushed hard by a media bitten from completely missing Keating’s win in 1993, so much so that the evidence that Howard was heading for an easy win was largely played down. I remember even at the start of the election coverage, one of the opening lines was that predictions ranged from a Howard landslide to a Keating increased majority; talk about covering all bases! Of course, the it’s close narrative is never a hard one for the media to promote, because 1-it is in their own interests to do so, and 2-because the parties themselves will generally be happy for people to think it is close in order to avoid either complacency or resignation among their supporters. I’m still seeing nothing other than a comfortable Labor win on Saturday, although of course I won’t be actually celebrating until it is called.
”
According to Bloomberg, the soaring US dollar is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronised slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market volatility, and there’s little respite on the horizon.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-the-rampant-us-is-wrecking-the-global-economy-20220515-p5alen
Can someone (or ‘here we go again’) to explain why US dollar is soaring when US economic numbers like inflation, GDP, interest rates are in pits?
“For the love of God, please, someone advise/help this man”
Always revealing when a member of the media says something like this. One thing to point out mistakes by a candidate and another to plead for them to get help.
The Sunday Times in WA is doing its best to paint a “down to the wire” election here while conceding (from seat polls of 400 with an implied error margin of 5%) that two will be lost to Labor and the others kind of safe for the LNP. However, inside the paper itself, that old LNP supporting curmudgeon Paul Murray has written the LNP off for next Saturday (“Liberals Too Little To Late for Scomo” – with a couple of caveats) while Joe Spagnolo is talking in terms of a requirement for a “Morrison Miracle”…. Make of that what you will……
BREAKING: Ukraine has won Eurovision
Boer
Which is a fault of polling methodology!
Ven
Because USD is the ultimate haven asset…
zoomster
Not really. All samples have a MOE. If there is a fault, it is loading the results with meaning beyond the MOE.
This is an example of systemic policing failure in Indigenous communities. It is why Price’s campaign will have some legs, and IMO rightly so.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/malcolm-abbott-domestic-violence-prevention-fails/101059440
Technical memo to ABC. If Insiders is filmed outside get your bloody lighting right.
What rabbit is Morrison pulling out today? Who will fall for it? So much of the media are desperate for him to give them something, almost anything, to run with for the next week because strangely all the previous weeks rabbits have been lemons.
Nope Ven, just reckon the WA figures (2 seats) for what was a double digit swing isn’t much of a seat haul.
On NI – its not how the play starts its how it finishes that matters. Let’s see where things stand in December.
Reading this policy – it does nothing for young people and i doubt many people would want to downsize.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-to-unveil-superannuation-policy-in-final-pitch-to-voters-20220514-p5alc9.html
In regard to which way WA will go, conventional wisdom is that Swan and Pearce should go to Labor…
My comment for weeks has been along the lines that if Labor cannot win both of these seats at this low ebb tide for the Federal Libs, I can’t see a time when they will ever change to Labor…
Hasluck has changed hands a few times and I am not that sure that it will not go again to Labor but his would be icing in the cake….
Beyond this, say Tangney, probably a bridge too far, though, the ST polling has it more at risk to the Libs than Hasluck….
The interesting seat is Curtin where there is plenty of visual evidence of support for Chaney – though whether this means anything or not, time will tell…
The advice from those who know say that individual seat polls should be treated with a high degree of caution, that Preferred PM figures are in no way predictive and that betting odds are just to make a quid……
Probyn nearly in tears with how poor things look for the Libs ….
… “despite Albo’s stumbles” – FFS.
”
Burgeysays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:39 am
Griff
People in western Sydney aren’t stupid. They haven’t forgotten who forgot to get vaccines which led to them being locked down hard last winter and lose their livelihoods.
The idea that the western suburbs is some sort singular voting bloc is as fanciful as there being a “women’s vote”, an “Italian vote” or a “Soap Dodger vote”.
”
Someone said that LNP in general and Morrison in particular are courting people of Indian heritage in Australia. I understand
“stupid. They haven’t forgotten who forgot to get vaccines which led to them being locked down hard last winter and lose their livelihoods.”
But most Australians of Indian heritage worked from home during Pandemic. So they were not affected like other Australians. One family of Indian heritage I live in Greenway. The male has soft spot for Morrison because he courtered Australians of Indian heritage. It is a sample of one.
Jan @ #130 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:12 am
I’m still of the view that people have mostly tuned out of Morrison. He can promise to change his spots all he likes, but are people still listening? Not likely in my view.
It’s certainly interesting that in the context of a 54-46 to Labor advantage in the poll averaging, the narrative has been that Labor is favoured to win only a small majority or probably a hung parliament with a handful of seats won from the Coalition, perhaps none at all in Queensland and Victoria. McEwen with a margin of 5.5% to Labor is considered to be in play for a possible Coalition gain.
A 54-46% result would equate to a uniform swing of 5.5%, about the same as the swing from 1993 to 1996. Yet the narrative is that the contests are about even in the closest seats (Chisholm on a margin of 0.5%).
G’day Evan.
i combine both lap swimming & ocean swimming.
Ocean swim across The Haven to Wamberal Beach and back.
The Haven is the reserve opposite Terrigal Beach.
==============
I still feel sad about George the stingray. Hopefully the haven is still graced by other rays.
“Hasluck has changed hands a few times and I am not that sure that it will not go again to Labor but his would be icing in the cake….”
Hasluck is a difficult seat for me to understand, I don’t understand why the Libs would be in the hunt let alone having held it for so much of the last 20 years.
William
Your penultimate paragraph has optimistic Libs talking about gaining Swan and Greenway from Labor in NSW.
Is that Swan right?
EDIT: answered my own question by following the link to your analysis of McEwen.
PVO supports a 5.1% increase and criticises LNP response. Who is this man and what has he done with PVO?
Fran Bailey announces she sacked Morrison as MD of Tourism Australia. While this has long been suspected, I believe it is the first time it has been admitted.
Macca RB: Sounds good mate, must have a swim up at Terrigal some time.
And yes, speedos, cap and goggles all year round for me too. Bondi icebergs pool is great for some pool lap swimming in some salt water, with some fantastic ocean views around you, if the surf is too rough for an ocean swim.
Avoiding Insiders, even though the fantastic Laura Tingle is on, just can’t cope with David Speers. I imagine he’ll interrupt Albo constantly and in comparison Frydenberg will get a clear run.
GG
Ouch.
Aaron newton @ #111 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:51 am
Well, you can’t have her! 😉 We need Palaszczuk where she is.
As for the ABC on 24 devoting all afternoon to the Liberal campaign launch – nah, no thanks!
Our sample of people of Indian heritage.
Taxi driver asked how he & his extended family members could join the ALP.
He is the second taxi driver of Indian heritage to ask the question.
It could be polite conversation as we have a front fence adorned with Gen& Albo.
Plus ALP hats n t shirts…lol
Fran Bailey finally confirms what everyone suspected – very interesting timing!
What is happening on Insiders this morning? Speers asks Albanese a question, and lets him answer, without interruption. It’s almost unsettling to hear an answer given in full.
somethinglikethat @ #149 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:26 am
The wheel has turned. Speers knows he’s talking to the next PM.