The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
Addie,
Thanks for that. It’s funny how these people never go away, like toe fungus. 😐
54-46 to ALP means many more people are voting Labor than conservative. All the polls are showing this. I always thought WA would be lucky to deliver more than two seats to Labor ( a bit like fellow resource state Qld in that regard state ALP fed conservative). But that brings us back to 54-46 , unless the polls are wrong again and the conservatives are foxing about their internal polling they cannot win on these numbers. Even two seats in Perth and two to three in seat rich Qld. is a mortal blow for the LNP. Throw in a couple in Steak and kidney and two more Melbourne and one in Tassie plus a couple of independents – one in Syd and one in Melbourne the conservative parties have lost 12 = Albo PM. By the way I was hopeful more than confident in 2019 with the numbers the way they were but if ALP can’t win on these numbers we might as well give up and front up to the nearest pentacostal establishment asap.
Julian Morrow’s interview of ‘Moz’, a finalist in the Archibald Prize , and his experiences as a refugee, is a reminder how we’re treated asylum seekers.
Utterly shameful.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/live/
poroti @ #28 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:22 am
Scotty teaching Indians how to make a proper curry ?Begging for a caption.
The guy on the left is thinking “this guy is a prick he even has a condom on his head”
@ poroti
Why’s Scott wearing a condom on his head?
“The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers”…
Ha, ha, ha…. Good luck!…. That’s “optimistic” leaning on the “deluded” end of the spectrum.
However, given that Trumpism is definitely invading Australia, I would make super-sure to control those booths and the overall voting process…. You never know. So far, this country has been quite fine on the issue of vote fraud…. but I wouldn’t relax on that front, there is too much at stake.
That Morrison cooking photo makes him look like a showboating wanker….a bit of a David Brent try hard.
They say photos dont lie!
Good boy Palmer, stay right where you are. No last week advertising blitzkrieg against Albo. Good boy, good boy !! Take out as many page 2 and 3 full page ads in the Oz as you like mate, just leave Albo alone. Good Boy !!
Those pics of Morrison allegedly making curries are a blatant grab for the Indian vote in certain seats, there is always a political motive to all Scomo does.
Evan says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:39 am
Those pics of Morrison allegedly making curries are a blatant grab for the Indian vote in certain seats, there is always a political motive to all Scomo does.
Perhaps he just really really likes dress ups.
Perhaps he doesn’t like being PM, and dress up is his form of escape.
When it’s over he is going to have a lot of dress-up photos. Perhaps a book.
These numbers are quite worrying, if Labor lose Greenway (a seat with a high Indian population hence ScoMo’s photo opportunity we could be in for a long night. The Liberal Party has strongly courted the Hindu & Sikh communities in Western Sydney for a number of years now. Could it pay off? I am also convinced the shy Tory factor is a thing, the evidence shows it exists. Even Kevin Rudd mentioned a while back that the numbers always swing back 1-2% in favour of the tories towards the end of the campaign.
‘BK says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:21 am
Dawn Patrollers
Sorry, but I’ve had a major sleep in this morning. I am now starting the patrol. Be patient.’
—————————-
Thanks, BK. I’ll keep an eye out on the kettle.
Sorry but I am incredulous at some of the media labelling some Fibs/ Nats as moderate [haves’ lobbyists, courtiers, acolytes, such as the $60B maths failure] or centre right [haves, plus off with the fairies, such as the bulldozer].
The far right are extreme disaster capitalists. Some of their tendencies are closer to facism, communism, theocrazyism, and other such autocrats.
Just look at their voting records [like Fiona Martin in Reid, except on organised religion or cult-enabled discrimination], be it governance, Wuflu, climate, social support before corporate welfare, powershift …
Besides, here’s to mroe social and/ or direct democracy (minor parties/ independents), and less liberal democracy.
More Northwestern Europe, may be Switzerland – by all means fund a DoD with air and either or navy/ army, civilian defence – or Singapore, and Poms/ Yanks[/ Murdoch}!
Though I’d prefer to see a progressive alliance in fed gov, or failing that the house the old Liebor [such as Albo the builder]/ Libs lite/ salon socialists way, and the senate with balance of power with minor parties/ independents.
[And state govs vary from NSW to WA, say, or QLD to TAS.]
Let’s see if defeat, probably something quotas or PC or some pigs are more equal than others, will still be snatched from victory.
poroti @ #28 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:22 am
No caption, well maybe when I calm, down. But Mr Morrison’s attempts to be a “man of the people” instead gives us a cartoon of the people. He mocks us.
A gunman sporting a rifle and body armour opened fire in a supermarket in Buffalo, N.Y., killing at least 10 people before being taken into custody Saturday afternoon, law enforcement officials told The Associated Press.
Details on the number of additional people shot at the Tops Friendly Market and their conditions weren’t immediately available. The two officials were not permitted to speak publicly on the matter and did so on the condition of anonymity.
Investigators believe the suspect may have been livestreaming the shooting and were looking into whether he had posted a manifesto online, the official said. The official cautioned the investigation was in its preliminary stages and that authorities hadn’t yet discerned a clear motive, but were investigating whether the shooting was racially motivated.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/buffalo-grocery-store-shooting-1.6453755
WA+QLD are different. 2 seats after what was looking like a double digit swing is a poor haul. With 2 and 3 % differences in these 2 seats a late swing back to ScoMo might still put the result in doubt in those seats.
Still ScoMo is defending on too many fronts not to loose next Saturday.
If the LNP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this time I’ll be forced to assume one or both of the following:
1) Our elections are not as secure as we like to believe (pencils in polling booths anyone?).
2) Psephology is a meaningless pseudo-science ranking somewhere between spoon-bending and astrology.
While you are waiting for the Dawn Patrol you might like to catch up with Pocock v Seselja.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/act-senate-race-can-independents-chase-down-liberal-incumbent
“(I also disagree that there was any particular turning point in Howard’s term. ”
There were many turning points, but in the context of the Parliament Howard lost a number of Ministers to the code of conduct and then decided it best to do away with the code of conduct in practice. He steered executive power into unaccountable darkness and the current systemic corruption traces to that point, in much the same way Australia’s eagerness to torture and kill refugees traces exactly to Howard’s racist children overboard lie.
He is the seed at the core of our heart of darkness.
Clive Palmer should change the name of his party to: The Preferencing Harvesting Party
poroti @ #28 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:22 am
If I keep stirring this vat of molten latex hard, do you think I will have enough to finish the full body condom?
BK, joining the chorus of gratitude for the Dawn Patrol, a volunteered kindness shared and no sort of obligation whatsoever. Thank you again for letting us see your daily print digest -it’s a generous community service and the summaries are very appreciated.
edit: And you obviously needed the sleep-in, go you.
People clenching over seat polls? Jesus, OK.
That story on Albo was published in 2017.
Surprised that Greenway until now has not garnered much attention – Michelle Roowland has a small margin of safety, smaller than for Labor in Parramatta.
Neither Scomo or Albo have been to the seat, the Liberal candidate has not featured in the news etc.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I had to draw upon my manufacturing experience to increase my productivity to pull this together so quickly. Enjoy!
Today, Morrison will make his final set-piece pitch to Australian voters with a superannuation policy to encourage Australians to downsize their homes in a last-ditch attempt to halt his campaign’s stumbling momentum. James Massola and Anthny Galloway have the details.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-to-unveil-superannuation-policy-in-final-pitch-to-voters-20220514-p5alc9.html
It is not often I link an article from Parnell Palme McGuinness, but today she has put together a good assessment of what the Liberal Party has come to and where it is going.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/danger-for-the-liberal-party-coming-from-the-right-as-well-as-the-teals-20220512-p5akxx.html
Jon Faine puts the case for radical change to election campaign funding rules.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/in-politics-money-talks-and-loudly-20220513-p5al43.html
Politicians’ pay has gone up by a third in a decade, but a wage rise in line with inflation is too much? Jacqui Maley looks at this and other concerns she has with the government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politicians-pay-has-gone-up-by-a-third-in-a-decade-but-a-wage-rise-in-line-with-inflation-is-too-much-20220513-p5al4k.html
Josh Taylor reveals how a classic “long game” by Labor is paying off by giving it the opportunity to craft a big NBN policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/15/revealed-how-a-crafty-labor-move-on-the-nbn-is-being-used-to-win-over-voters
Paul Sakkal writes that independent Monique Ryan’s decision not to allocate preferences on her how-to-vote cards is leading to invalid votes. She’s not the only independent candidates urging supporters to make their own minds up when allocating preferences.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/kooyong-voters-confused-by-ryan-voting-cards-could-be-the-difference-between-winning-and-losing-20220513-p5al6m.html
NSW’s mental health commissioner said Australia will need to recruit from abroad to boost its depleted and exhausted workforce, as demand outstrips supply for services after two years of lockdowns and pandemic distress. Jucy Carroll and Mary ward tell us that wait times for mental health specialist services have stretched to more than six months in parts of NSW, with a new report showing one in eight residents have developed a new condition since the pandemic began.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/lockdown-toll-one-in-eight-have-new-mental-health-condition-20220513-p5al4v.html
Peter FitzSimons has interviewed Andrew Denton and his passion for the campaign he has run on voluntary assisted dying comes through. Denton unloads on the opposing forces. Also we see the tweet of the week which came from Malcolm Farr – Scott Morrison is shaping up to be the worst thing to happen to the Liberal Party since Bob Hawke.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-vulnerable-v-the-entitled-how-vad-has-become-a-hugely-unfair-fight-20220512-p5akxy.html
In campaign debates, in radio stations, television studios, people to people encounters all over the nation, the name Barnaby Joyce comes up as the biggest brake on Australia making a greater commitment to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. Does the leader of the National Party deserve the brickbats? Maybe we should look to our backyards, writes Mark Sawyer.
https://michaelwest.com.au/hating-barnaby-joyce-is-it-him-or-is-it-us/
Tim Jones contrasts the LNP’s “values” and their actions.
https://theaimn.com/lnp-values-and-their-actions-a-comparison/
Rex Patrick has taken aim at three SA Liberal senators who he describes as “Canberra shirkers. Fawcett, Antic and McLachlan copped the spray.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/rex-patrick-says-alex-antic-among-liberal-canberra-shirkers/news-story/52f660ed819b5e3a89c086e04ec02200?amp
The Coalition is running away from federal ICAC as calls for it hit fever pitch, writes Nicholas Bugeja.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-runs-away-from-federal-icac-as-calls-hit-fever-pitch,16359
Helen Pitt uses her experience of having a broken leg to describe the poor condition of the health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/time-to-fix-our-health-system-that-s-as-broken-as-my-leg-20220512-p5aktw.html
And Melissa Davey explains how Covid exposed Australia’s straining hospital system.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/emergency-overload-how-covid-exposed-australias-straining-hospital-system
Politicians are gaslighting us with inflated bulk billing numbers. Medicare is haemorrhaging money, says Margaret Faux.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/14/politicians-are-gaslighting-us-with-inflated-bulk-billing-numbers-medicare-is-haemorrhaging-money
Various reforms to the Australian Human Rights Commission are required to better protect and realise human rights in Australia, writes Professor Ben Saul.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/if-elected-labor-must-reinvigorate-australian-human-rights-commission,16353
Jessica Seier and Janathan Shapiro explain what was behind behind the collapse of a $26b stablecoin outfit last week.
https://www.afr.com/technology/a-week-of-terra-behind-the-collapse-of-a-26b-stablecoin-20220513-p5akzt
According to Bloomberg, the soaring US dollar is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronised slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market volatility, and there’s little respite on the horizon.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-the-rampant-us-is-wrecking-the-global-economy-20220515-p5alen
A gunman sporting a rifle and body armour opened fire in a supermarket in Buffalo, New York, killing at least 10 people before being taken into custody yesterday. Investigators believe the man may have been livestreaming the shooting and were looking into whether he had posted a manifesto online. What a failed society!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/at-least-eight-dead-in-daylight-mass-shooting-at-us-supermarket-20220515-p5alee.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Reg Lynch
Matt Davidson
Glen Le Lievre
Dionne Gain
From the US
ABC is broadcasting LNP campaign launch (what a joke when they were campaigning for atleast 6 weeks, some say more) from 11:30 am.
Can someone clarify whether ABC broadcasted ALP launch?
I don’t remember ABC doing it.
If they did not, then ABC has been converted to state broadcaster.
This article on Morrison’s new policy to be announced today to lock in his base has a telling sentence:
The policy was first introduced in the 2017-18 budget, but has had a relatively low take-up rate since then.
Some housing policy experts have pointed to evidence suggesting many older Australians are emotionally attached to their properties and are unlikely to be motivated by financial incentives.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/coalition-offers-incentives-for-older-australians-to-downsize/101067920
I only have a sample of two, my parents, but they are sure as hell hanging on for dear life to their home (a big, double-story monster on a golf course, gated estate), even though they are in their 80s. It’s their security blanket and they also want to hand it over to the kids. Not some Retirement Home property with more caveats and fees in the contract than you can poke a stick at when it comes time to sell it after they pass away.
C@t
Absolutely. Seen it close at hand also.
This policy was a dead cat then, and a dead cat now – won’t shift the dial.
(Sorry about the cat references!)
Bellwether @ #67 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:07 am
That psephologists know this is the only reason I’m entertaining them at the moment. Their professional future in Australia is on the line. The jury is out on the Australian Polling Council as an attempt to professionalize (not a word) themselves. I expect there’s a bit of experimenting going on this time with different techniques and assumptions, which means they won’t all be wrong. And the recent SA election indicates hope. We’ll know in a week.
Ven @ #77 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:15 am
Yes they did broadcast the ALP campaign launch. It was held in Perth. 🙂
Rocket Rocket @ #79 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:19 am
You are excused. Not all cats are dead and anyway, we have 9 lives. 😀
Simmo888:
“I am also convinced the shy Tory factor is a thing, the evidence shows it exists.”
Which ‘evidence’ would that be?
“… there is practically no bias against conservative parties in Australian polling. On average, the overall skew on both Coalition and One Nation vote shares has been minimal, at just -0.2% and +0.2% respectively, neither being statistically significant (p = 0.3 and p = 0.6).”
https://armariuminterreta.com/2021/06/25/shy-tory-effect-in-aus-polling/
Also, my parents have used up their Super and they are now on the Aged Pension. I doubt they will want to eat into their biggest asset now in order to start funding themselves again.
Thanks BK! Looking forward to this time next week when hopefully we’ll have an election result we can all be happy with.
Exactly that. (Sample of one.)
Thankyou BK. Fearsome speed!
WeWantPaul, I think you’re conflating the question of the relative power of the prime minister and the parliament with the question of how well the power is exercised according to some standard and to what ends. These aren’t the same questions. The question of whether a hung parliament will result in early elections is about who has the power, not the quality of use of the power. Well, I suppose it’s possible someone could pull a Putin and seriously misjudge the situation, but I guess I’m not trying to predict mistakes, but only the behavior of people who look around at them and play by the rules that can be enforced. Australia is a land in which minority governments are common enough when you count the states.
It simply makes no sense to call an early election just so you can get a bill to fail in the Senate instead of the House of Representatives.
Just saw a headline on The Australian website
Was PM warned? It’s up for debate
A Liberal source claims a list of debate questions were leaked to the PM’s office before the head-to-head, which could explain his uncharacteristically calm and unflappable demeanour.
By ALICE WORKMAN
Either the leak story is true which is bad for Channel 7 and also makes you wonder who the ‘Liberal source’ is who is leaking and why they are doing it.
Or the leak story is false, which is an even more interesting narrative if it truly has come from a ‘Liberal source’
The other challenge for pollsters, not new, but ongoing and constantly shifting the goalposts, is the rise in mobile phone spamming. Most of us have learnt to ignore and block numbers we don’t recognize, particularly with the publicity given to text-based malware. That said this would apply to every demographic and the models will be tweaked for it; the baddies behind the spambots could no doubt contribute their own insights were they so inclined.
Every so often an election comes along by way of a definitive sample, and then the caravan of complexities moves on. Thanks to William and everyone else scrying and interpreting the data and the caveats on the shifting dunes of electoral behaviour.
edit: Musing on this as we recently had to ring about 25 people after a facility infective exposure using a number not normally associated with the practice, and something like 10% answered. Once normal services were restored we got hold of everyone, but the novel private number was regarded with caution, and reasonably so. Phone bankers will know how this compares to normal rates of access. PS: thanks to infectious precautions and routine PPE practice, everyone was fine.
Thanks BK,again
LR @8:20:
“The jury is out on the Australian Polling Council as an attempt to professionalize (not a word) themselves. I expect there’s a bit of experimenting going on this time with different techniques and assumptions, which means they won’t all be wrong.”
——————-
Ben Raue of the Tally Room recently did a podcast on the Aust Polling Council. He was joined by reps from Yougov and Ipsos who explained why their polling missed so badly in 2019 and what they’d done to remedy it.
The fact that the polling for recent State elections has been reasonably in line with results, and the absence of a 2019 herding pattern in the federal election polls should give us a bit more confidence in what we’re seeing at the moment.
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
As at: May-15 (previous week in brackets)
Coalition majority: 2.8% (9%)
Coalition minority: 19% (20%)
Labor minority: 17% (20%)
Labor majority: 61% (51%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 8.0 (6.6)
MOE (66% CI): 5.3 (5.4)
And he STILL couldn’t win the debate!
Griff
People in western Sydney aren’t stupid. They haven’t forgotten who forgot to get vaccines which led to them being locked down hard last winter and lose their livelihoods.
The idea that the western suburbs is some sort singular voting bloc is as fanciful as there being a “women’s vote”, an “Italian vote” or a “Soap Dodger vote”.
The probabilities implied by the betfair data have been and still are quite a bit more favourable to the LNP than the probabilities generated by the various statistical models. I don’t put money on elections myself but if the statistical models are correctish it suggests that there’s money still to be made by punters.
Andrew Symonds dead in car accident. Age 46.
My top 5 areas of interest for election night:
1) How do the Teals perform?
2) Does Labor win enough seats in QLD+WA to take majority govt
3) Is there a Deves/Tranny factor that helps/hinders the Liberals
4) Does KK go to preferences in Fowler
5) What impact UAP has (if any) on the election result
Thanks max. I’ll find a few minutes today.
Holdenhillbilly @ #96 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:41 am
WTF?
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:05 am
WA+QLD are different. 2 seats after what was looking like a double digit swing is a poor haul. With 2 and 3 % differences in these 2 seats a late swing back to ScoMo might still put the result in doubt in those seats.
Still ScoMo is defending on too many fronts not to loose next Saturday.
”
Looks like hope is returning to Lars. Lars of pre-November 2021 is emerging again. You know something we don’t know? Internal polling of LNP looking promising?
BTW, Lars it looks like SF will never have First Minister if it is upto Unionist. You know that the UK Conservatives are facilitating that but you still support the so-called Conservatives in Australia.