Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars

New seat polls suggest Labor on track for two gains in Western Australia, although the going is a lot heavier for them than when a similar exercise was conducted in March.

The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).

• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).

• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).

• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.

The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).

Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars”

Comments Page 20 of 27
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  1. Puffytmd: “Maybe I have missed a vital aspect of the GoT world”
    ______________
    It’s pretty simple, the character displayed ruthless methods in dispatching Rulers, all the while plotting to ascend to the Throne himself, aided by his motto ‘chaos is a ladder’.

    The other person is fictitious and his name is Petyr Baelish

  2. Puffy:….You are right about all those aspects of Littlefingers GOT character….but he was also an arch schemer and power hungry to the point of murder which is what these cretins are trying to pin on Shorten

  3. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 3:56 pm
    Scott Morrison made a housing announcement today. There are only three problems with it:

    It makes houses more expenses
    It doesn’t build a single home
    It raids workers retirement income

    He doesn’t have a clue. It’s all about the announcement not about the outcome.

    Stephen Jones MP @StephenJonesMP
    ”

    What about first home buyers who buy ‘off the plan’ units/ apartments or homes?

  4. Mexicanbeemersays:
    “Nath
    The lack of financial literacy is one of the biggest failures of the education system.”

    Heck, teachers do try… but it’s back at trying to make young people aware that payday loans are a shocking ripoff… the dynamics of supply and demand are critical for understanding of the world (and why the Coalition policy on super for housing is trash) unfortunately requires a deeper understanding… though it’s always worth give it a shot 🙂

  5. Catching up with the rest of Morrison’s Pentecostal Party campaign launch, I think there are lots of contradictions Labor can work with here.

    “I had one focus as your prime minister – save the country,” he told Liberal true believers.

    “And we did.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/scott-morrision-liberal-coalition-election-launch-voters/101068420

    From bushfires and flood assistance to Covid vaccines and submarines, Morrison has not done many things that would have saved the nation much grief. His campaign is almost daring critics to say “you failed to do that…”

    Likewise with his character remake promise. ROTFL. Having just finished Peter Hartcher’s very well researched article on AUKUS negotiations, it is absolutely clear that Morrison will lie shamelessly over ANY issue, including national security. Why would he hesitate to lie about remaking his own character?

  6. bug1:
    “the coalition can chose its own leader according to their own rules.”

    … the rules of the coalition agreement that we aren’t allowed to see.

  7. Prediction for the next Ipsos poll: 55/45

    Prediction for the Phillip Coorey headline: Morrison surges back into contention after stunning campaign launch.

  9. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:38 pm
    …..
    One thing I won’t recommend is Thai Whiskey
    —————————————-
    Did it taste any good though?

    Some years ago, my spouse took a bottle of Suntory’s posh whiskey on a visit to Scots friends and gave them a blind tasting. They all enjoyed tasting and thinking about it, one bloke saying “It’s not an Islay whiskey” (he was dead right). They were a bit put out to discover it was Japanese. But they did work on finishing the bottle though!

  11. True Believer at 6.13

    “Ch 9 politics section went for 45 seconds. Toolman looks depressed.”

    Thanks for spotting this, most encouraging.

  12. North Korea on Sunday reported 15 additional deaths from “fever” after the country recently announced its first-ever cases of Covid-19 and ordered nationwide lockdowns.

    State media KCNA said a total of 42 people had died, with 820,620 cases and at least 324,550 under medical treatment.

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/north-korea-coronavirus-north-korea-covid-north-korea-coronavirus-cases-north-koreas-explosive-covid-outbreak-820-620-cases-in-3-days-2977028#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories

  13. The Senate ticket in Victoria has a field of 79 candidates, in 30+ groups

    Of those groups only 8 are not right wing or lunar right

    It appears there are a lot of proxy parties preference harvesting

    Is this the same in other states?

  14. outside left @ #900 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:47 pm

    Who was the poster who hosted the guessing competition 3 years ago? Looking forward to this weeks version.

    It might have been me. If there’s interest I can redo. Dig out the ole spreadsheets. Spruce ’em up.

    Guesses include:
    * Seats declared on the night
    * The time A. Green declares a winner
    * The time the loser throws in the towel
    * Final TPP

    I’ve probably missed a few.
    (Dinner now. I’ll check back later for responses.)

  15. From bushfires and flood assistance to Covid vaccines and submarines, Morrison has not done many things that would have saved the nation much grief. His campaign is almost daring critics to say “you failed to do that…”

    His campaign ‘launch’, like everything else in his time if office can be characterised as a day late and a dollar short.

  16. Holdenhillbilly Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:32 pm.

    Thanks for the article. It’s a good read and congratulations on your modelling.

    One question about your forecasting model, does it take into account postal and prepoll votes cast each day and apply your estimated 2PP%’s for each of those days?

  17. SA Bludger:
    the AEC website lists polling stations open before election day and on election day. You search by postcode. Try Rundle Mall on the floor above the Apple store

    From my casual observation I think there are less early voting stations than in previous years and because early voting is over 2 weeks instead of 3 weeks some booths are very busy with people voting early to avoid rain, Covid crowds etc

    Naturally, rain is forecast for Melbourne next Saturday. No, just checked, rain no longer forecast for next Saturday – just really cold in the morning

  18. Late Riser @ #965 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:26 pm

    outside left @ #900 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:47 pm

    Who was the poster who hosted the guessing competition 3 years ago? Looking forward to this weeks version.

    It might have been me. If there’s interest I can redo. Dig out the ole spreadsheets. Spruce ’em up.

    Guesses include:
    * Seats declared on the night
    * The time A. Green declares a winner
    * The time the loser throws in the towel
    * Final TPP

    I’ve probably missed a few.
    (Dinner now. I’ll check back later for responses.)

    I’ll start if off by saying……
    ALP to win 80 seats
    Winner declared at 9.30pm EST
    Morrison to concede 10.30pm
    TPP 53.2 ALP 46.8 LIB/NAT

  19. I caught the beginning of 7 News after the football, and news breaks during it – saw no mention of Morrison’s big day. Maybe it was on later, dunno. I think 7, 9 and the ABC are depressed by what has happened.

  20. hla says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:23 pm
    Upnorth says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:38 pm
    …..
    One thing I won’t recommend is Thai Whiskey
    —————————————-
    Did it taste any good though?

    Some years ago, my spouse took a bottle of Suntory’s posh whiskey on a visit to Scots friends and gave them a blind tasting. They all enjoyed tasting and thinking about it, one bloke saying “It’s not an Islay whiskey” (he was dead right). They were a bit put out to discover it was Japanese. But they did work on finishing the bottle though!
    中华人民共和国
    I don’t mind Japanese Whiskey especially the Highball. Goes very well with Yakitori. The Thai version is well different let’s put it that way. But it was 37 c yesterday and a man ain’t a Camel (I forget who here has a Camel).

    I shall have better quality drinks on hand on the 21st and be safely ensconced in the Air Conditioning.

    Just on this Little Fingers stuff, having never watched nor been interested in Game of Thrones (though I did use the Throne this morning after my experiences yesterday) I now understand the terminology. Juvenile at best.

  22. Arky @ #920 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:55 pm

    And @Freya Stark – I just want it on record that you used the word “cisgender” unironically. You’re a closet Green paid to be a Liberal troll or something, right?

    All over the place like a madwoman’s breakfast, as my old mum likes to say, is my reading of the particular kind of contributions Freya Stark has been making.

  23. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:38 pm
    …..
    “One thing I won’t recommend is Thai Whiskey”

    Worse? Thai wine. I used to live in Vientiane (Laos) and used to “go across the friendship bridge” to Nongkhai (just over the river).

    Locally grown grapes. Horrible, horrible wine.

  24. Lars on the counterfactual of Morrison ‘retiring’ in October 2020 and handing over to Frydenberg…

    The problem is, it’s not only Morrison’s personality that’s the problem, but the Coalition’s governance over 3 years.

    The pandemic gave them an opportunity to be ‘wartime leaders’ and unbackable favourites for this election, but they (collectively) screwed it.

    Flat wages and high inflation is a collective failure.

    Frydenberg would have needed to govern dramatically differently. Would the makeup of his caucus allow that?

    I seriously doubt it.

  26. I’m going to double dip.

    (1) Objective assessment based on polling data and historical precedent in Oz and abroad
    – ALP wins 84 seats, Coalition 57, Green 1, KAP 1, CA 1, IND 7 seats (Haines, Steggall, Tink, Spender, Daniel, Ryan, Wilkie)
    – Morrison concedes at 9.40pm AEST
    – Final 2pp 53.4 ALP 46.6 Coalition

    (2) Gut feeling assessment based on both available data and “intangibles”
    – ALP 75 seats, Coalition 69, Green 1, KAP 1, CA 1, IND 4 (Haines, Stegall, Daniel, Wilkie)
    – Morrison does not concede on Saturday night
    – Final 2pp 51.2 ALP 48.8 Coalition
    – Coalition+PHON win blocking majority in the Senate

  27. Holdenhillbilly @ #962 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:25 pm

    North Korea on Sunday reported 15 additional deaths from “fever” after the country recently announced its first-ever cases of Covid-19 and ordered nationwide lockdowns.

    State media KCNA said a total of 42 people had died, with 820,620 cases and at least 324,550 under medical treatment.

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/north-korea-coronavirus-north-korea-covid-north-korea-coronavirus-cases-north-koreas-explosive-covid-outbreak-820-620-cases-in-3-days-2977028#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories

    Sadly that will translate into 10s of thousands of deaths in the next few weeks.

  28. So FHB are supposed to raid their superannuation funds to feed the property bubble? How do people say the Liberals are the better economic managers?
    This is simply a short term solution to feed the beast. Increasing Residential Property Prices do NOT increase productivity, do not add to the GDP and will just increase inequality.
    By decreasing the amount of money people will have in Super, means there is less money to be invested into building productive infrastructure and businesses. Super only works as a retirement scheme if people are not allowed to raid it.

  29. Griff @ #44 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:17 am

    Hi Glen, I am a person that says it for a few reasons:

    I apologise, I wasn’t clear about what I mean.

    I recognise that the Liberals believe it might win them some seats in some particular electorates…

    What I don’t understand is why people think it might actually help them in those electorates. Some people seriously suggested that Lilley was under threat of being lost to the LNP because of the Deves nonsense – and not just at this election, but it was asserted that the LNP were trying to steal Labor heartland in places like Parramatta, because once it went LNP, somehow it would stay that way?

    I just don’t understand what the logic is. And I should make clear, I wasn’t targeting my question at you, it was just an opportunity for me to bring the topic up.

  30. Paul Karp@Paul_Karp
    ·
    4h
    Looks like HEAPS of Coalition MPs have bagged super for housing in past:
    “will not improve housing affordability” – Mathias Cormann
    “Young people need their super for retirement” – Sussan Ley
    “Thoroughly bad idea” – Malcolm Turnbull
    #auspol #ausvotes

    I wonder what Frydenberg thinks of the election pledge? (It isn’t a policy, but a desperate attempt to get people’s attention)

  31. Kos Samaras

    This is the ave super savings of 25-34 year olds. Did the PM’ staff even check it?

    Factor into this the last 2 years, where many had to raid this tiny amount to survive.

    The ave cheap home in Sydney is 800k.

    Source: ABS https://t.co/aunrZfPNXl

  32. Labor to win 78 seats. 2PP 51.9- 48.1

    Littlefinger to leave for an Ambassadorship.

    Albo to bow out as PM December 2024 – ballot between Plibersek and Chalmers on replacing him.

  33. @Conf – it’s a remarkable Hail Mary showing how desperate they are.

    If they felt it was genuinely close, I don’t buy for a second they’d actually have pulled this stunt.

  34. The Labor Party has asked the Australian Electoral Commission to investigate the Liberal candidate for the seat of McEwen, in Melbourne’s outer north, over whether he gave false information about where he lives in breach of Commonwealth laws.

    Richard Welch is seeking to topple Labor’s Rob Mitchell who holds McEwen by 5 per cent, but the Liberal Party believes it could win the blue-collar electorate hit hard by lockdowns and has poured significant resources into it.

    However, the ALP has raised fresh concerns about information Welch provided to the electoral commission. The Liberal candidate signed his nomination form on April 1 and lodged it with the commission on April 16, listing a Wallan address in the seat of McEwen as his home address, but he currently lives 50 kilometres away in Viewbank, in the electorate of JagaJaga.

    Welch last week told The Age he returned to Australia in 2019 after many years travelling between London and India, had been living in Wallan for 18 months but had not moved his young family into McEwen. He subsequently told Nine News on Saturday while he was living in Wallan at the time of lodging his nomination form, he had since moved to Viewbank after his lease was terminated on April 18 because the landlord sold the house.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-asks-electoral-commission-to-investigate-mcewen-liberal-candidate-20220515-p5alib.html

  35. Dont forget the first home grants/bribes will continue with the super contribution so further inflate the costs

  36. Likewise with his character remake promise. ROTFL. Having just finished Peter Hartcher’s very well researched article on AUKUS negotiations, it is absolutely clear that Morrison will lie shamelessly over ANY issue, including national security. Why would he hesitate to lie about remaking his own character?

    ‘I don’t think, I know’ Morrison is a liar. People should keep front of mind at all times that there was one leader who received a State Dinner at the Trump White House with all the bells and whistles. Scott J. Morrison. Because Donald J. Trump saw a person who exactly was as capable as he was of saying what needed to be said, lie or no it didn’t matter, every day they were in politics, in order to keep the narrative rolling favourably in their direction.

    Yes, ultimately Donald Trump was voted out but he hasn’t stopped trying to get back in again, employing the same tactics he used to get there in the first place and it’s for those reasons that, if Morrison does lose I can’t see him going gently into that good night either. I do agree that he will embark upon the project to unify the ultra conservative forces and parties in this country and control them. God help us if he succeeds.

  38. @C@t – Trump’s power comes from a deep psychological attachment those “people” have to him personally. I don’t buy there is a deep personally psychological attachment to Scott Morrison, even from Alex Hawke.

  39. Holdenhillbilly @ #984 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:48 pm

    The Labor Party has asked the Australian Electoral Commission to investigate the Liberal candidate for the seat of McEwen, in Melbourne’s outer north, over whether he gave false information about where he lives in breach of Commonwealth laws.

    Richard Welch is seeking to topple Labor’s Rob Mitchell who holds McEwen by 5 per cent, but the Liberal Party believes it could win the blue-collar electorate hit hard by lockdowns and has poured significant resources into it.

    However, the ALP has raised fresh concerns about information Welch provided to the electoral commission. The Liberal candidate signed his nomination form on April 1 and lodged it with the commission on April 16, listing a Wallan address in the seat of McEwen as his home address, but he currently lives 50 kilometres away in Viewbank, in the electorate of JagaJaga.

    Welch last week told The Age he returned to Australia in 2019 after many years travelling between London and India, had been living in Wallan for 18 months but had not moved his young family into McEwen. He subsequently told Nine News on Saturday while he was living in Wallan at the time of lodging his nomination form, he had since moved to Viewbank after his lease was terminated on April 18 because the landlord sold the house.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-asks-electoral-commission-to-investigate-mcewen-liberal-candidate-20220515-p5alib.html

    What sort of idiot gives an address of where they intend/could/might/should/maybe/wanna/pretend to live on a dated declaration rather than their current address at that date???

  40. Late Riser, and they’re off!I won the labor party sweep for election date ( and that was back in November) . I’m in for a Mondo Rock ( summer of) 81

  41. jt1983 :

    Yes, and I wonder how many others in the current front bench also opposed the measure back in the day.

  42. nath

    “ The other person is fictitious and his name is Petyr Baelish”

    Great character and the best tv program ever. Loved it, nothing has come close to it since imho.

  44. jt1983 @ #989 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:50 pm

    @C@t – Trump’s power comes from a deep psychological attachment those “people” have to him personally. I don’t buy there is a deep psychological attachment to Scott Morrison, even from Alex Hawke.

    It may surprise you, it surprised me at the Pre Poll, but those people exist!

  45. In a nutshell

    Kos Samaras

    The LNP just kicked under 40 year olds in the teeth. Their only solution to help young people into the housing market is to impoverish the only savings any of them have. Their super.

    Oh and yes, push them all into poverty when they retire.

  50. Late Riser I’ll have a go: (preferring to be at the optimisitic end of estimates)

    ALP to win 84 seats
    “The Swing Is On” declared at 7.15 by the panel
    Winner declared by AG at 8.15pm EST
    Morrison to cocede: NEVER [do you even know the guy???] “I know you, like God, love me and want me to be PM, but Covid messed up your plans” etc
    TPP 54.4 ALP 45.6 LIB/NAT

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