The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
The Wire
Not sure that’s a good idea. The dark side are bound to try and use it as ‘evidence’ of Albo’s intention to introduce another carbon tax. Just the kind of distraction you could well do without in the last week of a campaign.
I hear the noise re housing affordability
And, at my age, the average cost of a home spruiked has me asking how can those entering the home purchase market afford (even with currently low interest rates)
But average is average, so a home sold for $3 Million plus one sold for $700,000- gives an average of what it does (so $1.850 Million)
So average I dismiss
Past that, each of our 5 children, aged from 38 to 31, are in their own homes – and assumed comfortable with servicing their loans because they have not sought any (offered) help from us
And they have been in those homes for 4 years at least
They each purchased around the $700,000- mark (one building)
Borrowing around $500,000-
Then, in the back of my mind, is the thought that, at some time into the hopefully still distant future, they will inherit, putting what they owe into perspective
I understand not all are in the same position, but you can only speak to what you know
And the children of relatives and friends are significantly in the same position – but some in our extended family are not in the same circumstances and restricted to renting
Across society there are differing circumstances – so you never judge others by self
But, it would appear obvious that there is a demographic who will never be in a position to own a home
Which is why there is a rental market – encouraged by negative gearing
Then that you return the money to superannuation when you sell, so how does that work given people’s circumstances into the future are not known?
Wherever you poke your finger there is consequence
Another “policy” based on ideology – and just plain wrong
And perhaps the Pentecostal could have Nelson, Hewson and Turnbull in support
Except
It’s Time @ #990 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:51 pm
And how stupid must they be to think that they could slide under the rules by renting a house in the electorate and not living there? It would be too easy to ask the neighbours if he actually spent any time there. Or maybe he just used it to store his election material in? Alll in all, the sign of a Liberal = arrogant hubris.
Freya lives at 15 Credibility Street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG-OE7GCVTQ
And if Julia didn’t come back and campaign the media would say she’d been sidelined.
There’ll be lots of postal votes. These will whittle away Labor’s election-night lead. The big swings will be in the wrong places. As a result of all of the foregoing result won’t be known until into the following week. Morrison won’t concede while there’s a mathematical possibility, no matter how absurdly small, that he might win. That probably won’t be on the night.
From Messiah to pariah in three years. Well done Scott!
@Steve777 – Goodness…
I don’t agree, but goodness.
Surely you must be feeling pretty positive by now Steve777? Hard to see how it doesn’t end up with Albo as PM from here.
Lars,
You are such a cynical piece of tumbleweed.
Bell wether , that’s a killer!
That link hla posted above was good, comics from 1983-2004. I particularly like the one on top of 172, and was surprised to see a Mark Knight showing some compassion to refugees on page 158. A few scattered reminders that the realignment that Morrison rests his hope on isn’t really a new thing (or it isn’t a thing, or something), and what’s happening now is a retraction rather than an extension of the possible Liberal voter base.
jt1983 at 7.03
Not sure ‘goodness’ is the appropriate word…
Exactly what I was thinking.
GG at 7.03
Extraordinary restraint on your part…
Grand final week is finally here. Momentum is a killer.
@Late Riser When do nominations close for the guessing comp?
@ outside left
I forgot to add ‘Liar from the Shire’!
ALP will probay get a relatively good 2pp result but with no return in Queensland. In future when ALP go backwards Qld will follow, meaning that Qld will likely only have a couple of ALP seats out of 30 in the long term. Very difficult for Labor to win elections in the long term.
GG at 7.03
On reflection, I suspect Lars is projecting the Right wing concern that IF (no assumptions) Labor win, they will prove to be a competent team led by an effective leader.
So, thanks, Lars.
William, re. your query some pages back about the Labor candidate for Parramatta. The Cons appear to be making a mountain out of a molehill, as Charlton (Ancestry.com claims we could be 2nd or 3rd cousins), to the best of my knowledge, merely stated his address was a Woollahra rental owned by his wife whereas he had moved to Parramatta. Without more, his transgression is the equivalent of a parking fine, regulatory – $200, with time to pay if he’s indigent.
However, if he affirmed or swore a state dec knowing it contained a falsity, like it’s alleged a PHON candidate did, reference thereof is drawn to, for example, former Federal Court judge, Enfield. Charlton’s safe, both legally and as the next member for Parra.
“And if Julia didn’t come back and campaign the media would say she’d been sidelined”
So what?
I agree that I personally wouldn’t have had Albo campaign with Gillard in the last week, when soft voters might be wobbling on what an Albo government looks like, although it’s probably a small thing in the scheme of things this could be a really close election in certain seats.
Freya at 7.08 very much ensconced in 15 Credibility Street.
Beaglieboy
Nath seems to have it in for Bill Shorten. Even if Shorten was in any way akin to Littlefinger I can only assume that the only problem for Nath is that this so-called Littlefinger is an ALP Littlefinger. The Liberals are full of ruthless backstabbing ladder-climbering Littlefingers but that appears to be ok by Nath.
The closest Australian politician to the Littlefinger characterisation, including patriarchal attitudes to women, but without the charm, wit, sense of style, intelligence, rare glimpses of empathy and humanity, and self-awareness of Petyr Baelish is obviously Scott Morrison.
Also Petyr Baelish lived in an imaginary zero-sum world. If you play The Game if Thrones, you win it all or you die.
All Scotty has to do is blame someone else, run away from the media, then come out later and gaslight everyone that nothing was ever wrong because ‘We have always been at war with Eastasia.'(1)
And if he fails, Morrison just moves on to his next gig.
(1) 1984, George Orwell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uZ_HuI6qpwOne for the left footers. Australia’s gift to Celtic, and as a bonus Tom Rogichttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uZ_HuI6qpw
C@twoman: Laugh at me at your own peril. You won’t be laughing when my projections come true and Dutton becomes long-term PM. Perhaps you and your ultra-left coven can run away to New Zealand, I mean Aotearoa, but by then “Jabcinda” Ardern will be long gone and even they will be only marginally less conservative as our own government.
When Jim Chalmers succeeds PM Albo in the lead up to the 2028 election the resultant burst in Queensland parochial voting a la Rudd will wreck the LNP. Not worried, Freya.
And that’s if the outcome of this election doesn’t complete the transformation of the Liberal Party into the unelectable Christian culture wars party it has threatened to become since Abbott.
Bingo
P R Guy
Under Labor’s plan you’ll retire with a house and super. Under Morrison’s plan, you’ll have neither. #ScottsSuperTax
I’m happy to see Julia Gillard involved. Those that ridicule her are rusted-on Coalition-voting jerks anyway and women (they are about to decide this one) tend to respect her.
Arky @ #1023 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
Maybe she will only be in Vic and SA.
Arky at 7.09 re advisability of involving Gillard…
1) I don’t know where she’ll be. Victoria would seem best option.
2) Meta-narrative benefit: her govt introduced NDIS. Albo embracing Labor’s positive past (which he’s done better than any other Labor Opposition Leader I’ve seen.)
3) Subliminally, appearing with Australia’s only female PM might reinforce just how bad the Coalition has been re female representation and respect for women issues.
They really havent thought through this policy
—–
So, @SenatorHume gushing about 1st home buyers being able to unlock $50k (or $100k for couples) of their Super.
The cap on how much you can use = 40%.
So, to access $50k you’d need $125k in your Super Fund.
$125k super balance
Males: aged 45-54
Females: aged 55-64 https://t.co/B77t3B1gEy
Victoria @ #1031 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
Yep!
Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:49 pm
Holdenhillbilly and King re https://armariuminterreta.com/2022/05/15/australian-polling-hasnt-been-getting-worse-over-time/…
A real highlight of the article is the term ‘decennium mirabilis’!
Thanks, a nice pickup and good read.
THWACK !
And c@tmomma lands a BEAUTY up under freyas glass-jaw !!
Does she still feel the same way?
Freya just drunk her lemon lime and bitters without the lemon or the lime ….
@Freya
the New Zealand National Party’s current leadership is pretty moderate, so even if Ardern loses the election next year, a National government in NZ would be far less conservative than a possible Dutton government in Australia. Another example is the difference between John Key and Julia Gillard on asylum seekers.
As for Dutton becoming a long term PM (you said 15 years?), I mean, even Thatcher only managed 11.5 years before being toppled. You always get that in a late-stage government.
ShaneB says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Cronus
“Breaking Bad ?
The Sopranos ?”
Both very good but for sheer grandiosity and compulsive viewing I think GoT takes the cake. There have been a number of imitators since but nothing has come close. A redefining tv event that ushered in the golden age of tv drama on a grand scale.
Anothed good one
P R Guy
First he bulldozed your wages. Then he bulldozed your savings. He says he was “just warming up”, and now he’s going to bulldoze your super. #ScottsSuperTax
Confessions at 7.18pm
We can, of course, rely on our unbiased mainstream media to question the relevant Coalition front benchers over their previously (although within this term of govt) expressed opposition to the signature policy announced by their Dear Leader at today’s launch…
The polls have not moved from start to finish. Labor has and is sitting on a 54/46 lead.
The pre-Election period has been a period of the country actively standing still with lots of flurry and not much else.
The voters have already made the decision that Labor will replace the Morrison LNP.
The only interesting aspect of the Election period is the rise of the Teal Independents. If they snare a few seats then the Libs are in an existential crisis.
Go Teals!
How depressed is (most of the) ENTIRE media going to be if the ALP wins in a number of days?
I’m sure there’s a bunch who will be transactional and get their contacts with the ALP all set up or revving again, but quite a lot of these media people seem to be intent to follow the LNP to the Mariana Trench as if they’re cult followers.
Their excuses and backtracking, as well as seeing the ALP (hopefully) romp home, is going to be such a joy on the night. “erm well um I erm always thought I mean Albo was always I certainly didn’t think Scott” etc., while having a face that rues that very night they were there.
If the way the media have been acting all state-run, North Korean/Russian/Hungarian and authoritarian, like it’s their life juice.
Will it be a win for the powerful pathological narcissist or the one that states” I have always been underestimated”?
It’s Time to Say NO to the bully from marketing.
IF he does lose,
the Underestimated +1
the Gaslighter -1
‘ALP will probay get a relatively good 2pp result but with no return in Queensland. In future when ALP go backwards Qld will follow, meaning that Qld will likely only have a couple of ALP seats out of 30 in the long term. Very difficult for Labor to win elections in the long term.’
I guarantee you that if there is a 4% swing in Queensland, the ALP will win 2 seats. I just don’t think Longman will be one of them – it’s demographics are right up LNP strategy street.
@Cronus, responding to nath:
“The other person is fictitious and his name is Petyr Baelish”
Great character and the best tv program ever. Loved it, nothing has come close to it since imho.
______
Yeah, but then seasons 7 & 8 happened. What an awful letdown. Complete fizzer. Like the actual experience of the Turnbull government must have felt for Trumble’s fangirls and fanboys.
But cheer up, ya’ll: this review imagines a much better ending;
https://youtu.be/rVGHjB_c0Ok
@ Freya Stark
Even if your wet dream comes true and Dutton is PM until 2040 he still won’t be around long enough to commission one of his famous subs.
outside left says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:07 pm
“Grand final week is finally here. Momentum is a killer.”
Agreed, in business, sport or politics, the three most important things are momentum, momentum and momentum (though I have no scientific studies on which to base this theory).
I saw a bit of Morrison on the ABC 7PM news in Sydney – gosh, this bloke fancies himself as some sort of Pentecostal Preacher, he’s got the hide of an elephant too, supreme self-confidence bordering on arrogance, I doubt Scomo would know the meaning of the word “humility”.