The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
Who was the poster who hosted the guessing competition 3 years ago? Looking forward to this weeks version.
I have has a look at the likely outcome of the QLD senate election. Undoubtedly the will be three candidates elected ‘straight up’, being LNP – ALP – LNP.
I think the % pf votes for LNP and ALP will be about the 2016 figures, or in other words the swings of last time reversed, which would then leave ALP with ~.8457 and LNP with ~.4683 of a quota.
PHON will probably be elected fourth on minor right wing party preferences.
LNP and Greens have very few candidates recommending preference allocation to them – PHON and UAP don’t include them. Lib Dems and ‘Informed’ Medical Options do, but even than only lower than PHON and UAP, so only a very small portion of their votes is likely to reach LNP unless PHON do much much better than expected.
ALP should win a second senator and Greens maybe slightly favoured over LNP for the sixth position, as they should have a figure of at least .7 of a quota to start with (based on 2019) or maybe more, although Greens not recommended for many preferences either.
I was out with friends this afternoon and only just caught up with Scomo’s scheme to cling ot office by gutting superannuation to prop-up the housing bubble. Lucky we don’t already have a problem with inflation.
Genius! Why didn’t I think of that before. We don’t have to make houses more affordable for first home buyers. We just need to keep prices up and turnover strong in the market, till the last cabinet minister has sold off their property portfolio.
Who knows Lars, Labor may have changed leaders too if polling had changed with a new PM.
@LvT – it hardly matters does it.
We all know Morrison’s ego and messiah complex would never have allowed to see himself as a liability, let alone his departure being a positive.
I do think, had the Liberals changed leader and pivoted toward the middle – rhetorically, they’d not be in the position they are now. However, had Morrison the guts to go in November, they’d not be in this position either.
Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 4:45 pm
……
1983 – Fraser thought he’d catch Labor with its pants down (see the deliberate double entendre?)…went well, eh?
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Page 151 of this https://dspace2.flinders.edu.au/xmlui/bitstream/handle/2328/13003/ch%2010_manning2.pdf?sequence=1 has a copy of the cartoon ‘Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser caught with his pants down’, Ron Tandberg, Age, 4 February 1983. I remember this cartoon well.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:46 pm
Here’s a counterfactual:
ScoMo retired in October 2021 saying he was exhausted and passed the baton to Frydenberg.
What are the chances the Liberals would have won re-election in a canter ?
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Queensland swinging against a Melbourne Jew and towards an Akubra wearing Albo. I can see that.
True ltep. It seems PM’s have a shelf life of about 3 years – by that time too many negatives build up and they become a liability. Basically this one and the last 4 fit that profile.
The trick it seems is to make the outgoing one not be too bitter or accept the 3 year rule?
south @ #854 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 3:11 pm
Super funds are already allowed to invest in unlisted assets. The WA government via Synergy recently sold its renewable energy assets to a consortium that included CBUS.
Edwina, you ever play twister?
Oh not this solar power melting metal thing again. If that’s even possible, why not do it in Mexico for 1/20th of the Labor costs, little regulation and environmental issues.
Leroy, thanks for the explanation.
@Rex: “I see the flood of Labor reps now following Keatings lead in condemning the Libs final act of desperation.”
The PB masses were attacking it before Keating tweeted (let alone any official ALP tweet) because we can independently recognise bad policy and don’t just repost what Great Helmsman Adam says.
@That letter over Deves’ signature – Liberal Party head office is really dead set on insulting their former voters who vote independent, aren’t they? They’re lucky most would bin that without reading it to see how patronising it is.
I know that the bookies can be wrong (they were paying a Liberal win at 600-1 on election evening 2019, which I’m still haunted by… imagine throwing a lazy $100 on that in a two horse race??) but I also imagine they have tightened up their predictions since then, as they aren’t usually in the business of giving money away.
I have been following the odds in certain seats for a while now and Sportsbet (todays odds below) haven’t moved much in the last month.
Labor leading in the following seats:
Corangamite has Labor @$1.30
McEwen has Labor @$1.25
Pearce has Labor @$1.40
Swan has Labor @$1.25
Robertson has Labor @$1.85
Greenway has Labor @$1.08
Parramatta has Labor @$1.14
Griffith has Labor @$1.25
Libs leading in the following seats:
Brisbane has LNP @$2.00
Leichhardt has LNP @$1.40
My question is this, if the Liberals (and other polls) are saying seats like Greenway, Swan and Pearce are tightening, then why haven’t the odds changed?
For example, Kooyong has moved, so has Wentworth, with Teals and Libs swapping places in the lead etc. Boothby and Reid have also blown out to heavily favour Labor wins. Dickson has moved with Dutton $1.18 to retain.
If anyone has an answer I would genuinely love to hear it, as I don’t have any idea about why certain seat odds have barely moved etc.
For what it’s worth (and that might not be much TBH) I’ve said from the start of the campaign, I think Labor will win Swan, Pearce, Boothby, Reid, Chisolm and Braddon. I can’t see them winning anything in Qld but I also doubt that the Libs will pick up any seats whatsoever.
Hopefully someone can shed some light on the bookies odds! Thanks everyone 🙂
Lars
Frydenberg has done a poor job of selling the government’s pandemic response and if he can’t easily win his own seat then probably not.
I think one of the reasons Littlefinger lost in 2019 was his lines and campaign was geared to running against Turnbully. The top end of town stuff didn’t make sense with ScoMo.
Same here – all of the lines built up about ScoMo would have been moot if he’d gone (retired) in October last year.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 4:52 pm
And what do people do in RVs? They cook in their meth labs.
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Ah, they must have got that idea from ‘Breaking Bad’. Or vice versa.
Thanks for the explanation!
A must watch imo, but it is no laughing matter!
https://youtu.be/ywyD6acrYTc
Oh oh, it’s started narrowing.
A massive plunge on Sportsbet sees the Coalition come in markedly from $4.20 to $4.15 whilst the ALP has blown out to $1.26 from $1.25.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
nath
“ I tend to think most people would prefer using their super than having the government with an ownership stake in their house.”
A binary choice is unnecessary when they can have both with a decent government with decent policies.
And @Freya Stark – I just want it on record that you used the word “cisgender” unironically. You’re a closet Green paid to be a Liberal troll or something, right?
Nath
Frydenberg can be easy going and likes his sport so he might do okay in Queensland.
When will the next polls be released (and by whom)?
@LvT – Yes, the biggest single strategic error made by Labor in 2019 – there are many – was thinking you could just run a copy of the 2016 campaign and assume things would be the same.
@True Believer – clearly it’s time to burn the crops, lol
Karl Marks were before their time in recognising the limited shelf life of Prime Ministers in the modern era.
If this pathetic excuse for a brain fart wins Morrison another term, then we will truly have the government we deserve.
T.D. Kerobatsos @ #913 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
The odds haven’t changed because bookies are in the business of making money from setting gambling odds, not from predicting the outcomes of elections (or horse races, football games etc).
The gambling odds change on the basis of reasons aimed at making money from a gambling operation. Their preditive value is purely coindicental.
Leroy: “The word Cooked could mean something bad going back years, but Cooker seems new.”
It always had an association with meth-heads to me. As in “cooker” is a meth cooker. During the freedumb marches in Melbourne over the last couple of years, it was a thing. Those people really did look the part.
T.D. Kerobatsos: The odds are on what people are prepared to bet.
The polls are what people tell the pollsters.
They only intersect to a certain degree.
The same as sport – if all the pundits pick team A to win a game but someone puts a million dollars on team B then the odds will come in.
“Accessing your super now for a house, to a young couple, is very tempting.”
You got to have significant super before it is useful in a deposit.
You’d need to not know the federal govts role in the housing bubble.
You’d need to not know about the housing bubble.
I think it is a pretty small group of people, who will still be paying an absolute fortune for an ordinary house.
I find referring to Frydenberg dismissively as a “Melbourne jew” gratuitous, and extremely offensive. Pull your head in.
He may represent a lot of appalling things, but being Jewish is not one of them.
Fargo61says: Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 5:37 pm
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I think your maths is wrong.
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Fargo61, three possible sources of discrepancy here:
1. All my analysis today was from earlier downloads from the AEC website that only had data up to 13 May 22. I just checked the site and I see they now have included data from yesterday (14 May 15).
2. Your formal vote % (86.90%) doesn’t correspond with what I’ve got, which was 88.39%. My figure was derived from:
* Expected voter turnout rate: 91.89% [https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/2019/downloads.htm]
* Informal vote rate: 3.81% [https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2019Federalelection/Report/section?id=committees%2freportjnt%2f024439%2f73759]
I’ve assumed here that the 3.81% informal vote rate is a % of the total votes cast, not the % of total enrolments. But I will go back and recheck this.
3. For votes cast so far, I broke it down into daily totals and applied daily LNP 2PP% rates, rather than retrospectively apply a single 2PP%.
WeWantPaul @ #872 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:27 pm
Or host of Insiders. 😐
I presume we’ll get Resolve, Essential and Ipsos in the next couple of days.
Oh and Morgan.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:02 pm
I find referring to Frydenberg dismissively as a “Melbourne jew” gratuitous, and extremely offensive. Pull your head in.
He may represent a lot of appalling things, but being Jewish is not one of them.
_____________
Chabad.org a Jewish website describes Frydenberg ‘ as the second highest-ranking official in the Australian government and a proud Melbourne Jew.’
https://www.chabad.org/news/article_cdo/aid/4745367/jewish/40000-Tune-in-Down-Under-for-Virtual-Lag-BaOmer-Celebration.htm
“Or host of Insiders. ”
As someone above posted you don’t get a lot more inside than he does with his kissing.
nath: “The politics of this housing issue favors the Coalition.”
lol. Just like national security issues favor the coalition? You need to update your script. I think your assertion is “we say that this issue favors us therefore it favors us.”
I have become slightly addicted to federal polls and need a “hit” every 2 days.
Cold Turkey after May 21 for a year.
Holdenhillbilly: “Cold Turkey after May 21 for a year.”
No rest for the wicked. We have a Vic state election before the end of the year.
As soon I see the word Littlefinger in a certain bludger’s comment I scroll on by.
As the ‘Littlefinger’ character in Game of Thrones made his money as a pimp for prostitutes, I am not sure why that reference is linked to a senior Labor Party figure.
Also the character Littlefinger is a charming sociopath, who certainly would not care a jot about the disadvantaged, particularly anyone disabled in any way, unless it was to his advantage. GoT’s Littlefinger certainly would reject any concept of unions, considering his use of women’s and young men’s bodies to gain wealth, and information to fuel his power.
Maybe I have missed a vital aspect of the GoT world, and the complex characters within it and how this one relates to an ALP candidate. Perhaps the commenter who almost habitually uses that name can enlighten me?
Honestly it the polls are proved largely to be correct and the Liberals are reduced to a reactionary rump with the moderates wiped out, a feasible option might be to merge with the Nationals and create a federal Liberal National Party (LNP).
A federal LNP centred on social conservatism and right wing populism could bring back ONP, UAP voters back into the fold and represent a real realignment of Australian politics moving forward.
ScoMo has politicised his daughters, as did Abbott, so comments about the daughters are fair game. The obviously home made dresses would appeal to the evangelical corner
Albanese’s son accompanied his launch but he wasn’t in a red t-shirt
Can’t remember if Rudd pushed his kids onto the stage but Jessica Rudd is a keen Tweeter
Pi says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:07 pm
nath: “The politics of this housing issue favors the Coalition.”
“lol. Just like national security issues favor the coalition? You need to update your script.”
Agreed, after nine years of pathetic housing policy I’d say the Coalition have actually lost the politics of housing ….. along with debt and deficit etc.
Ch 9 politics section went for 45 seconds. Toolman looks depressed.
billie says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 6:13 pm
ScoMo has politicised his daughters, as did Abbott, so comments about the daughters are fair game. The obviously home made dresses would appeal to the evangelical corner
Albanese’s son accompanied his launch but he wasn’t in a red t-shirt
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Appalling.
Puffytmd: “Maybe I have missed a vital aspect of the GoT world”
No, you’ve got it. The LNP operatives have been trying to find narratives that stick for years now. Catchy negative slogans that they just repeat ad-nauseum. They’ve become completely dependent upon smear backed up by a compliant media. They have no interest in policy beyond a marketing brochure. They’ve managed to turn the way they run government into an opposition platform.
We should get a Resolve or Ipsos soon.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #885 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:38 pm
In other words, what’s even the point of super?
Another way to read this is that under this government things are going so badly that if we’re nice to the LNP they will allow us to cripple our future so we can live today. The problem is of course that the future is coming a lot sooner than most of us think. (And as you say, it’s not their job, we’re on our own.)
simmo888: “a feasible option might be to merge with the Nationals and create a federal Liberal National Party (LNP)”
They’re already that in QLD, and if the polling is correct, QLD will be the largest concentration of conservative federal members. If the polling turns out to be correct, the libs’ ability to influence policy will disappear even as a concept. In reality, it already has disappeared. The nationals control the LNP now.
Honestly – if you think an adult politicising their minor children is wrong, then making nasty comments about them because of the politics of their parent is equally wrong.
It’s not like there isn’t a significant quantity of things to go after Morrison on.
I did not watch the Liberal launch. I had an urgent need to cut my toenails. Then my dogs wanted back scratches. The mirrors needed polishing and the socks had to be paired.