Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
The Lib moderates in teal seats could have resigned from their now-extremist party on principle, and run as moderate Independents themselves. They’re just not good enough at reading the room. Or acting on their stated principles.
No one other than those who already vote for right wing parties buy or subscribe to News Corp publications. They have to give their dedicated audience what they want to the company will go bust.
Groom & One Nation?
Get your hand off it!
Allen might have a point with the ‘better to work for change inside the tent’ if there was anything to show for it.
As it is, Morrison’s Liberal party appears to be deliberately moving away from the moderates at high speed. The only conclusions that might be drawn are that:
* the moderates are already so marginalized within the party that they are simply ignored, or
* the crazy is so strong that with all the moderates’ valiant efforts the Morrison government still looks like it does.
Either way “inside the tent” is only viable when it looks like it might achieve something. At some point you have to cut your losses and take a different tack.
Regarding Mark Latham, wherever he goes agro will follow including unflattering and insulting nicknames for every colleague and acquaintance, scary handshakes and watch out taxi drivers who try and take you the long way home. If the coalition win could he be our next ambassador to China?
Freya, how in hell could a LNP Government be propped up by PHON when PHON is getting only a couple of percent of the vote. They have bucklies and none of getting anyone elected, not even in Queensland.
I note an article saying that under this government Australia’s international reputation has been damaged
This is the fact
From our Regional neighbours to France, to the blindsiding of the USA over the submarine contract to China and the list goes on
Domestically the government has alienated those Australians who conduct their business with China, Australia’s largest trading partner
The pm of Australia is not a diplomat and Australia pays the price with its reputation reduced significantly
The pm speaks to our allies and partners but it is a one way street – his descriptions exclusively for domestic consumption
Last election in Maranoa the final 2pp count was between LNP and PHON.
They are getting much more than 2% nationwide because they are running in just about every seat.
My guess about the so-called “soft vote”. Some polls will have a follow up question after you answer the voting intention question. It will be something along the lines of, how certain are you that you will vote this way? Press 1 for very certain, 2 for somewhat certain, or 3 for not at all certain.
That is a nonsense distraction Freya. Google is your friend, have a look. Littleproud cannot be beaten, sadly.
72.5- 27.5 2pp result in Maranoa..in 2019…One Nation got a bit of catching up to do me thinks
PaulTu @ #389 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 4:07 pm
Perhaps Alpha Centauri. Almost too far away to do much harm when/if he gets there.
The defeat of Frydenberg will see Sukkar not only as the back room controller of the Victorian Division but as the public face
And Opposition Leader?
It is a very real prospect
And Bastiaan appears from the shadows in triumph
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/anthony-albanese-five-key-questions-for-the-labor-leader-ahead-of-the-2022-election
The long answer, of course, is “abso-bloody-lutely”.
It is excellent that we have posters keeping the flames of rage well stoked. The progressive parties have the opportunity to not just win an election, there is an opportunity to rip the Coalition asunder.
Keep banging the drum 😉
Hi Matt31
I think you’re right. The question would have been
‘If your preferred candidate was photographed with a billy goat and butter, would you consider changing your vote?’
Seems goats matter to 27% of people. Possibly mostly Green voters worried about the billy goat.
Higgins has turned into a classic 3 way marginal, which Labor or the Greens could win if Katie Allen’s primary vote falls below 45%, her margin of safety is 2.9%
Jackal
“ Either way “inside the tent” is only viable when it looks like it might achieve something. At some point you have to cut your losses and take a different tack.”
Agreed, the time for “inside the tent” has passed, the hard right conservative/religious elements are fully in charge and not for changing. It’s passed time for the moderates to leave and begin a moderate party, thus the Teals.
Wow , just saw that question to Albo from Ch7 Jennifer Bechwati.
That organisation’s executives I now consider of lower integrity than Murdochs executives.
JayC @ #416 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 4:59 pm
Labor voter question: Did the goat consent?
Liberal voter question: Was the goat female?
National voter question: Was the goat attractive?
Green voter question: Was the butter organic?
Player One @ #410 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 4:56 pm
Nobody can be satisfied with just our domestic emissions reduction.
Our real task is to end our enabling of the biggest emitters with our fossil fuels.
We cannot keep using the NRA type propaganda to justify our fossil fuel based profiteering.
Someone was asking about the community independents running in Cowper and page earlier today. I live in Page, but right at the southern end and I work in Coffs Harbour (which is Cowper). Caz Heiss in Cowper is running a pretty good campaign IMO, she has the most billboards and corflutes round Coffs (can’t speak for port Macquarie end of Cowper) , did very well at a recent candidates forum (fun fact, the one neuron candidate actually turned up and was….. Something else….. When asked what she’d so about the climate her answer was to demand an immediate investigation into cloud seeding FFS). Sitting Nat Pat Conaghan was extremely rude and annoyed a lot of people, and although he’s on a reasonable margin he doesn’t have much recognition and is pretty invisible, don’t think he’ll have much personal vote to bring to the table. There’s a lot of anger with Scomo over fire and flood non responses so I’d say Caz is in with a good shot
Page on the other hand is an enigma. Obviously the floods is a major issue, and Kevin Hogan is well known but not necessarily liked, especially in the urban areas of the seat. Hardly any billboards or corflutes aside from Palmer.
Hanabeth Luke is doing her best, getting round lots of different events and community groups etc, but I worry she may have left her campaign a bit late to get her name out there (and I say this as a volunteer) , but I’ll think she’ll put in a good show and the community groups she’s building will hopefully pay dividends at the next election if not this one. Decent Labor candidate who seems to be pretty active too. Even on many local community pages it’s hard to get a read, it’s like after fires then covid and then floods the electorate is just over it. Very difficult seat to pick I reckon, I’d say there’s a good chance we’ll see the end of Kevin Hogan, but it really could go anywhere
One common thing I hear is a lot of anger for scomo’s blatant attempt to pork barrel flood recovery money, even round Coffs (which although my part of the world dodged much of the flooding, was a very close run thing and had a lot of people VERY nervous)
My 2 cents anyway from the best fishing area on the NSW coast!
Hi (removed)
It’s Kevin Rudd here. I’m still from Queensland and I’m still here to help.
This election is so important.
Morrison and his loudest media backers (including you-know-who) want Queenslanders to forget his failures.
After nearly ten years in office, Morrison leads a corrupt, incompetent, do-nothing LNP government with no plans and no ambition for the country.
Morrison wants Queenslanders to forget his multiple failures on the core business of government: Morrison has devastated aged care, cut Medicare, and gutted the NDIS. And then there’s the NBN…
He went on a Hawaiian holiday while our country was on fire. He didn’t order enough vaccines or RAT tests. And he abandoned Queensland after the floods.
Given how Morrison stuffed up the last crises, why on earth would Queenslanders trust him with managing the next crisis?
Unlike Morrison, Albo will act on cost of living pressures, stand up for wages and job security, deliver cheaper childcare and electricity bills, and rebuild a strong manufacturing industry in this country.
With only two weeks to go, we need your help.
Please join me in donating to Queensland Labor’s campaign today.
Yours,
Kevin Rudd
Some changes on Sportsbet today for NSW seats:
Bennelong: Liberal 1.50, Labor 2.45(were 2.80 yesterday)
Hughes: Independent(Georgia Steele) 1.87, Liberal 1.87
Liberal primary vote in Hughes reportedly is 37%.
Oh, Katie Allen is definitely behind in Higgins. Higgins is so gone they haven’t even made a token effort to defend Allen in the media.
“The defeat of Frydenberg will see Sukkar not only as the back room controller of the Victorian Division but as the public face”
He’s on 4.7% in Victoria and has to win his seat first.
The seat of Deakin is a very different beast from either Higgins or Kooyong. It is much more socially conservative, being close to Aston which is about as close to a Bible Belt as Melbourne has.
Sukkar would be likely to retain his seat even if both Frydenburg and Katie Allen are eliminated. He’d probably be thinking “So long suckers!” about them in a factional smirk if that happens.
Jason Falinski today arguing that Barnaby Joyce is a decent person who gets unfairly criticised in urban seats – wow Jason, that won’t help you in Mackeller
@Woke-pc-thug re; Cook
I have some first hand knowledge of that neck of the woods. The young Libs down that way are rabid and vicious. Doesn’t matter if their opponent has no chance, all the more reason to put the boot in, just because they can.
They remind me of private schoolboy bullies; act tough in a pack against weak opposition but soon go to water when confronted with some real muscle.
I recall one young Lib down that way got done for making bomb threats over the phone against a Labor candidate. This was in the pre-internet days so he was that era’s equivalent of a keyboard warrior.
I actually knew of this hero when he was in high school. He played local rugby with some of my mates. He was a lard-arse prop forward with no impact and when challenged in a blue would revert to a Kung Fu pose. He never landed a blow and got laughed at on more than one occasion when trying this schtick.
Player One
If the scenario you refer to happens, you are going to be very disappointed. Labor will, under no circumstances, repeat 2010. To do so would be the quickest way to ensure a one term government, and any achievements being quickly reversed by the Coalition. It just isn’t happening. The cross bench will have to make a choice between what the Coalition are proposing at the election and what Labor are proposing. The Coalition cannot be more ambitious on climate and still hold themselves together, so there’s absolutely no need for Labor to go higher anyway, as there will be no bidding war on climate change with the Coalition. That is the hard political reality.
Player One says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 5:04 pm
JayC @ #416 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 4:59 pm
“Hi Matt31
I think you’re right. The question w would have been
‘If your preferred candidate was photographed with a billy goat and butter, would you consider changing your vote?’
Seems goats matter to 27% of people. Possibly mostly Green voters worried about the billy goat.
Labor voter question: Did the goat consent?
Liberal voter question: Was the goat female?
National voter question: Was the goat attractive?
Green voter question: Was the butter organic?”
To which we could add
UAP voter question: Can we ever trust the goat again?
One Nation voter question: Is that goat my PHON candidate?
Player One @ #413 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:56 pm
Why do they need to?
Gee, I would be careful placing too much reliance on single seat polling…
Dr B and others have suggested that it is a bit of fool’s errand……
I think the problem is getting a sample which is decently representative….Still, if the “vibe” is there, I guess that is something…..
Could not believe my eyes when the 15-year-old-looking journo was reading from her phone a tweet which is, it seems, 11 years old…. and asking Albanese a question based on this ancient tripe…
No wonder journalist ranks is near to last as the least trusted group in Oz……
Speaking of Kevin Rudd, he is doing a lot of campaigning for Albanese, he was in Dickson yesterday with Ali France, the day before he was in Leichhardt with Elida Faith, earlier in the week he was helping out Andrew Charlton for 2 days in Parramatta.
Team Albo must see K Rudd as an asset in some places
The world works in weird and wonderful ways …. American social media has a raging ongoing debate about whether or not Elon Musk is the world’s richest African American and here in oz A man from old Rhodesian stock is emerging to take the social justice batten from Peter Garrett !.
On a serious note I noticed Sportsbet has moved the LNP back to $3 even from the $2.90 they were sitting at this morning. Did I miss something in the campaign trail today??
@ King OMalley
“ I actually knew of this hero when he was in high school. He played local rugby with some of my mates. He was a lard-arse prop forward with no impact and when challenged in a blue would revert to a Kung Fu pose. He never landed a blow and got laughed at on more than one occasion when trying this schtick.”
中华人民共和国
Did he have a hyphenated name?
Evan
He was down in Box Hill a week or two ago doing handshakes, was apparently quite popular.
Sukkar would be scared. Very, very scared!
LVT is taking the piss because he reckons Herbert going down is far fetched. Groom and Maranoa are staying in the Akubra hat column. Herbert however? Townsville votes ALP at state level and could decide ALP federally is the ” go” as well.
Tricot
Point is, who fed that tripe to the journo?
Rudd up this way for brekky with the troops next week then visiting the pre-poll booths.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 5:19 pm
Player One @ #413 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:56 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/anthony-albanese-five-key-questions-for-the-labor-leader-ahead-of-the-2022-election
Will Labor increase the ambition of its climate policy to secure confidence and supply agreements with teal independents?
The short answer is no.
The long answer, of course, is “abso-bloody-lutely”.
Why do they need to?
中华人民共和国
Player One is a Tory in Drag me thinks! Player One hates Labor so much the bile spews from his/her mouth. Complete lies and falsehoods in every post.
Matt31 @ #429 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:17 pm
The “hard political reality” is that Labor has to say what Albo said. So do the Liberals. We are all well aware of that.
But both Labor and Liberals will be hoping like hell the situation doesn’t arise. And they will both be preparing excuses for not living up to their rhetoric … “just in case”.
Prince planet says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 5:27 pm
LVT is taking the piss because he reckons Herbert going down is far fetched. Groom and Maranoa are staying in the Akubra hat column. Herbert however? Townsville votes ALP at state level and could decide ALP federally is the ” go” as well.
中华人民共和国
You got it in one cobber. Lars on the sauce early today.
I’d be interested to hear what impact Katie Allen thinks she’s had by remaining inside the tent.
Player One says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 5:32 pm
Matt31 @ #429 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:17 pm
That is the hard political reality.
The “hard political reality” is that Labor has to say what Albo said. So do the Liberals. We are all well aware of that.
But both Labor and Liberals will be hoping like hell the situation doesn’t arise. And they will both be preparing excuses for not living up to their rhetoric … “just in case”.
中华人民共和国
Exhibit 1
I notice in Gilmore that the LNP have written a blank cheque for its campaign there. I notice they have allocated a big modern coach with giant pictures of Andrew Constance all over it- usually something reserved for the main rolling head quarters of a major party leader to have enough room for imbedded journos and front bench stars…….. all for one candidate in one small seat!. They’ve also sent in a small l Nsw Liberal operative to help coordinate who is closely aligned with the foreign minister.
I’m perplexed, I’m hearing from well placed ALP sources that they have Gilmore in a canter and yet the LNP is throwing the kitchen sink at it. All the while they have a major local distraction in the form of a former NSW front bench state minister awaiting serious sexual assault charges who once dreamt of being the federal member for Gilmore
Herbert has a good Labor candidate John Ringer, in Flynn Matt Burnett is similarly outstanding.
Had a look at Sportsbet overall, the only Labor held seat where Liberal odds have improved is Gilmore, although I wonder if Andrew Constance will do that well in the Nowra-Ulladulla part of that seat?
They need Gilmore to have any chance, if they think other seats are definite lost. It makes complete sense to campaign hard there.
Evan
Albo is a unifying force!
Player One @ #441 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 3:32 pm
Labor with their policies at the moment stand miles ahead of the Coalition.
The decision in the last hung Parliament came down to trust.
Even if the Coalition agreed to meet or exceed Labor’s policy positions, could you trust them to implement them?